Informed arbitrage with speculative noise trading

We consider speculative noise trading when some naïve speculators trade on noise as if it were information [Black, F., 1986. Noise. Journal of Finance 41, 529–543]. We examine the optimal trading strategy of an informed investor who faces such naïve speculators in the market. We find that the informed investor trades aggressively on her information and takes large, opposite positions against the naïve speculators. The trading volume is thereby drastically magnified. While such speculative noise trading enhances liquidity, it makes prices less efficient. The overall dynamic patterns that emerge from our model are most consistent with the evidence for interday variations in volume, volatility, and transaction costs.     

A theory of the transition to secondary market trading of IPOs

We develop a model in which investment banks and institutional investors collaborate in smoothing an initial public offering's (IPOs) transition to secondary market trading. Their intervention promotes welfare under the assumption that significant new information arrives in the market in the immediate aftermath of the IPO. Under this assumption, it is optimal to stage the offering and suboptimal to commit to selling shares at a uniform price. The optimal strategy yields an economic rationale for secondary market price stabilization for IPOs carried out via a well-coordinated network of repeat institutional investors.     

Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

We build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases in producers' hedging demand or speculators' capital constraints increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures. These in turn affect producers' equilibrium hedging and supply decision inducing a link between a financial friction in the futures market and the commodity spot prices. Consistent with the model, measures of producers' propensity to hedge forecasts futures returns and spot prices in oil and gas market data from 1979 to 2010. The component of the commodity futures risk premium associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage generate limits to hedging by producers, and affect equilibrium commodity supply and prices.     

The S&P500 index effect reconsidered: Evidence from overnight and intraday stock price performance and volume

This study focuses on S&P500 inclusions and deletions, examining the impact of potential overnight price adjustment after the announcement of an S&P500 index change. We find evidence of a significant overnight price change that diminishes the returns available to speculators although there are still profits available from the first day after announcement until a few days after the actual event. More importantly, observing the tick-by-tick stock price performance and volume effects on the key days during the event window for the first time, we find evidence of consistent trading patterns during trading hours. A separate analysis of NASDAQ and NYSE listed stocks allows for a detailed examination of the price and volume effect at an intra-day level. We find that index funds appear to cluster their rebalancing activities near to and after the close on the event date, suggesting that they are more concerned with tracking error than profit.     

Information,sell-side research,and market making

The interaction between an investment bank's research and market making arms may have important implications for the trading of a firm's stock. We investigate the impact that research has on the liquidity provided by the bank's market maker. Utilizing a large sample of Nasdaq firms, we show that market makers whose banks also provide research coverage provide more liquidity and contribute more to price discovery than do market makers without such research coverage. Finally, we show that such “affiliated” market makers are less affected by uncertainty following earnings announcements. Our results provide new evidence on the sources of liquidity improvements for Nasdaq firms, and suggest that the information produced by banks in the sell-side research process is beneficial to their market makers.     

Stock market speculation and managerial myopia

This paper extends the analysis of managerial share price concerns by allowing informed trading in the stock market. It is shown that because they decrease the manager's information advantage vis-à-vis the stock market, individual investors who trade on private information improve the efficiency of corporate investment. This improvement does, however, fall short of first-best efficiency. Moreover, a stronger managerial share-price concern increases the expected profit from informed trading. Hence, by encouraging individual investors to collect information about corporate decisions and trade on it, managerial myopia tends to automatically bring forth a partial solution to the problems that it causes.     

On the destabilizing nature of capital gains taxes

Policymakers around the world impose some form of capital gains taxes to foster the stability of financial markets. Unfortunately, there is no clarity on the effects of capital gains taxes. Based on a stylized behavioral asset-pricing model highlighting the trading activity of extrapolating speculators, we show that policymakers may involuntary destabilize financial markets by imposing capital gains taxes. Most importantly, we find that the imposition of capital gains taxes may trigger endogenous cyclical asset price dynamics occurring around inflated price levels. A number of robustness checks in which we allow for interactions between speculators who use extrapolative and regressive expectation rules confirm our main results.     

ARE PRICE LIMITS EFFECTIVE? EVIDENCE FROM THE ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

There is considerable discussion about controlling volatility by imposing price limits on asset prices. We examine the effects of price limits on a stock market by testing the volatility spillover, delayed price discovery, and trading interference hypotheses in a leading emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Exchange, which has a unique market microstructure as related to price limits. Our results support the volatility spillover, delayed price discovery, and trading interference hypotheses. We also show price locks at limits provide significantly stronger evidence regarding the effects of price limits than limit moves only. Finally, price limits have a significant effect on the stock market, casting doubt on their effectiveness.     

Market uncertainty and the importance of media coverage at earnings announcements

We investigate whether increased investor demand for financial information arising from higher market uncertainty leads to greater media coverage of earnings announcements. We also investigate whether greater coverage during times of higher uncertainty further destabilizes financial markets because of greater attention-based trading or, alternatively, improves trading and pricing by lowering investor acquisition and interpretation costs. When uncertainty is higher, we find evidence of greater media coverage of earnings announcements and that the greater coverage leads to improvements in investor informedness, information asymmetry, and intraperiod price timeliness, and greater trade by both retail and institutional investors. In contrast to the media serving an expanded role in improving capital markets during more uncertain times, we fail to find that changes in firm-initiated disclosures lead to similar improvements and find that less frequent analyst forecast revisions exacerbate problems in capital markets during earnings announcements.     

Information asymmetry and investment–cash flow sensitivity

Models of capital market imperfections predict that information asymmetry decreases firm investment and increases the sensitivity of investment expenditures to fluctuations in internal funds. Previous empirical tests of the link between investment and financing decisions have relied on indirect measures of financial constraint due to market frictions. In contrast, we use more direct measures derived from the market microstructure literature. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, our analysis shows that scaled investment expenditures are on average lower and the investment–cash flow sensitivity is greater when the probability of informed trading is high. Our results are robust to alternative measures of informed trading and liquidity, but they are not pervasive in our sample.     

The effect of tick size on managerial learning from stock prices

We investigate the effect of tick size, a key feature of market microstructure, on managerial learning from stock prices. Using a randomized controlled tick-size experiment, the 2016 Tick Size Pilot Program, we find that a larger tick size increases a firm's investment sensitivity to stock prices, suggesting that managers glean more new information from stock prices to guide their investment decisions as the tick size increases. Consistently, we also find that changes in managerial beliefs, as reflected in adjustments of forecasted capital expenditures, respond more strongly to market feedback under a larger tick size. Additional evidence suggests the following mechanism through which tick size affects managerial learning: a larger tick size reduces algorithmic trading, in turn encouraging fundamental information acquisition. Increased fundamental information acquisition generates incremental information about growth opportunities, macroeconomic factors, and industry factors, with respect to which the market has a comparative information advantage over management.     

Investor structure and the informational efficiency of commodity futures prices

This article investigates the impact of the trading positions of hedgers (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, or users of a commodity), speculators (i.e., commodity pool operators, trading advisors, or hedge funds), and swap dealers on the price formation process in the agricultural, metal, and energy futures markets. The hedgers' relative positions exert negative impacts on price efficiency in commodity futures markets. Hedgers are less likely to be information motivated, so their trading delays the price formation process. However, speculators' positions have positive impacts on price efficiency because speculators correct pricing errors. This study also offers evidence that the role of swap dealers, similar to speculators in futures markets, is to provide liquidity and cross-market arbitrage. These findings highlight the role of producers, hedge funds, and swap dealers in price formation processes in commodity futures—information that is beneficial to academics, practitioners, and regulators.     

Learning from peers' stock prices and corporate investment

Peers' valuation matters for firms' investment: a one standard deviation increase in peers' valuation is associated with a 5.9% increase in corporate investment. This association is stronger when a firm's stock price informativeness is lower or when its managers appear less informed. Also, the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its stock price is lower when its peers' stock price informativeness is higher or when demands for its products and its peers' products are more correlated. Furthermore, the sensitivity of firms' investment to their peers' valuation drops significantly after going public. These findings are uniquely predicted by a model in which managers learn information from their peers' valuation.     

Detecting the presence of insider trading via structural break tests

The occurrence of abnormal returns before the unscheduled announcement of price sensitive information is a potential indicator of insider trading. We identify insider trading with a structural change in the intercept of an extended capital asset pricing model. To detect such a change we introduce a consistent timing structural break test (CTSB) based upon a U-statistic type process. Unlike the traditional CUSUM test, the CTSB test provides a consistent estimator of the timing of a break in the intercept that occurs across the whole evaluation period. We apply our test to a rich data set covering 370 price sensitive announcements relating to FTSE 350 companies. Our test is able to detect potential insider trading far more reliably than the standard CUSUM test. We also show that the majority of suspected insider trading takes place in the 25 days prior to the release of market sensitive information.     

THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY SET AND ITS PROXY VARIABLES

We use a real options approach to evaluate the performance of several proxy variables for a firm's investment opportunity set. The results show that, on a relative scale, the market‐to‐book assets ratio has the highest information content with respect to investment opportunities. Although both the market‐to‐book equity and the earnings–price ratios are related to investment opportunities, they do not contain information that is not already contained in the market‐to‐book assets ratio. Consistent with this finding, a common factor constructed from several proxy variables does not improve the performance of the market‐to‐book assets ratio.     

Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment

In the three-year period following stock market liberalizations, the growth rate of the typical firm's capital stock exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by an average of 4.1 percentage points. Cross-sectional changes in investment are significantly correlated with the signals about fundamentals embedded in the stock price changes that occur upon liberalization. Panel-data estimations show that a 10-percentage point increase in a firm's expected future sales growth predicts a 2.9- to 3.5-percentage point increase in the growth rate of its capital stock. Country-specific changes in the cost of capital drive changes in investment but firm-specific changes in the cost of capital do not.     

Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?

We decompose realized market returns into expected return, unexpected cash-flow news and unexpected discount rate news to test the relation between aggregate market returns and aggregate insider trading. We find that (1) the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is much stronger than what was reported in earlier studies, (2) aggregate insider trading is strongly related to unexpected cash-flow news, (3) market expectations do not cause insider trading contrary to what others have documented, and (4) aggregate insider trading in firms with high information uncertainty is more likely to be associated with contrarian investment strategy. These results strongly suggest that the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is because of insider’s ability to predict future cash-flow news rather than from adopting a contrarian investment strategy. These results hold even after we control for non-informative trades and information uncertainty.     

Digital Tulips? Returns to investors in initial coin offerings

We analyze a dataset of 2390 completed ICOs, which raised a total of $12 billion in capital, nearly all since January 2017. We find evidence of significant ICO underpricing, with average returns of 179% from the ICO price to the first day's opening market price, over a holding period that averages just 16 days. After trading begins, tokens continue to appreciate in price, generating average buy-and-hold abnormal returns of 48% in the first 30 trading days. We also study the determinants of ICO underpricing and relate cryptocurrency prices to Twitter activity.     

Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility

When a financial crisis breaks out, speculators typically get the blame whereas fundamentalists are presented as the safeguard against excessive volatility. This paper proposes an asset pricing model where two types of rational traders coexist: short-term speculators and long-term fundamentalists, both sharing the same information set. In this framework, excess volatility not only exists, but is actually fueled by fundamental trading. Consequently, efficient markets are more volatile with a few speculators than with many speculators. Regulators should therefore be aware that efforts to limit rational speculation might, surprisingly, end up increasing volatility.     

Does the stock market affect firm investment in China? A price informativeness perspective

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between firm-level investment and the stock market in China from a price informativeness perspective. We find that firm investment does not significantly respond to the stock market valuation, because stock prices contain very little extra information about the future operating performance of firms. This finding is further supported by the relative investment response test and the relative price information content test based on the informativeness proxy of price non-synchronicity combined with firm information transparency.