A theory of delegated search for the best alternative

Searching for the best worker, a reliable supply alternative, or the most profitable investment is frequently delegated to an agent. This article develops a theory of delegated search. We show that the principal’s ability to delegate depends on the agent’s luck, her initial resources, and the contract that governs her search. With moral hazard, the optimal contract is characterized by performance deadlines with bonuses for early completion. If performance cannot be specified, the optimal search is implemented by an option‐to‐buy contract for the principal. If performance is partially specified, the optimal contract is a standard pay‐for‐performance arrangement.     

Robustness and real consequences of nominal wage rigidity

Nominal wage rigidity has been shown to exist in periods of high inflation, while reduction in nominal pay has been hypothesized to occur in times of low inflation. Nominal wage rigidity would therefore become irrelevant because there is little need to cut nominal pay under high inflation, while the necessary cuts would occur under low inflation. We test this hypothesis by examining Swiss data in the 1990s, where wage inflation was low. Nominal wage rigidity proves robust in a low inflation environment, constituting a considerable obstacle to real wage adjustments. Real wages would indeed respond to unemployment without downward nominal rigidity. Moreover, wage sweep-ups caused by nominal rigidity correlate strongly to unemployment, suggesting downward nominal wage rigidity fuels unemployment.     

Tax buyouts

The paper studies a fiscal policy instrument that can reduce fiscal distortions without affecting revenues, in a politically viable way. The instrument is a private contract (tax buyout), offered by the government to each citizen, whereby the citizen can choose to pay a fixed price in exchange for a given reduction in her tax rate for a period of time. We introduce the tax buyout in a dynamic overlapping generations economy, calibrated to match several features of the US income, taxes and wealth distribution. Under simple pricing, the introduction of the buyout is revenue neutral but, by reducing distortions, benefits a significant fraction of the population and leads to sizable increases in aggregate labor supply, income and consumption.     

Morale hazard

We interpret workers’ confidence in their own skills as their morale, and investigate the implication of worker overconfidence on the firm's optimal wage-setting policies. In our model, wage contracts both provide incentives and affect worker morale, by revealing private information of the firm about worker skills. We provide conditions for the non-differentiation wage policy to be profit-maximizing. In numerical examples, worker overconfidence is a necessary condition for the firm to prefer no wage differentiation, so as to preserve some workers’ morale; the non-differentiation wage policy itself breeds more worker overconfidence; finally, wage compression is more likely when aggregate productivity is low.     

The economic effects of expanded compensation disclosures

This paper analyzes the effects of expanded compensation disclosures on manager pay. For identification, I use the introduction of the Compensation Discussion and Analysis (CD&A) in the 2007 proxy season, a significant expansion in required compensation disclosures, to compare manager pay at firms with and without the disclosure in a difference-in-differences analysis. These disclosures are associated with increasing pay, contrary to the conventional wisdom that pay disclosures reduce pay levels via better shareholder monitoring. I hypothesize that enhanced ex ante disclosures of incentive plans reduce boards’ flexibility to make ex post adjustments or to use subjectivity and pressure boards toward more formulaic plans. Both effects impose higher payout risk on managers, leading to increased pay levels. Consistent with this hypothesis, the CD&A introduction is associated with lower likelihood to earn variable cash pay, greater use of formula-based pay, and higher pay at firms with more volatile measures of performance.     

Slack in participative budgeting: The joint effect of a truth-inducing pay scheme and risk preferences

An incentive problem in participative budgeting occurs when a worker has private information about factors that influence his or her performance and the pay scheme is budget- or standard-based. This information, if communicated accurately by the worker, may be valuable to a manager for planning and control purposes. However, the worker has an incentive to bias its communication such that a relatively easy standard is set, thereby creating slack. To alleviate this problem, analytical research has proposed truth-inducing pay schemes that provide incentives for accurately communicating private information and maximizing performance. A conventional assumption underlying these schemes is worker risk neutrality, despite the wide-spread belief that risk aversion is more typical in organizational settings. This paper reports an experiment demonstrating that, when a (conventional) truth-inducing scheme is introduced, slack decreases for risk-neutral subjects but not for risk-averse subjects.     

A financial CCAPM and economic inequalities

This paper considers a wealth heterogeneous multi-agent (MA) financial pricing CCAPM model. It is based on the following observations: (a) A distinction between what agents are willing to pay for consumption and what they actually pay. The former is a function of a number of factors including the agent’s wealth and risk preferences and the latter is a function of all other agents’ aggregate consumption or equivalently, their wealth committed to consumption. (b) Unlike traditional pricing models that define a representative agent underlying the pricing model, this paper assumes that each agent is in fact ‘Cournot-gaming’ a market defined by all other agents. This results in a decomposition of an n-agents game into n games of two agents, one a specific agent and the other a synthetic agent (a proxy for all other agents), on the basis of which an equilibrium consumption price solution is defined. The paper’s essential results are twofold. First, a Martingale pricing model is defined for each individual agent expressing the consumer willingness to pay (his utility price) and the market price—the price that all agents pay for consumption. In this sense, price is unique defined by each agent’s ‘Cournot game’ Agents’ consumption are then adjusted accordingly to meet the market price. Second, the pricing model defined is shown to account for agents wealth distribution pointing out that all agents valuations are a function of their and others’ wealth, the information they have about each other and other factors which are discussed in the text. When an agent has no wealth or cannot affect the market price of consumption, then this pricing model is reduced to the standard CCAPM model while any agent with an appreciable wealth compared to other agents, is shown to value returns (and thus future consumption) less than wealth-poor agents. As a result, this paper will argue that even in a financial market with an infinite number of agents, if there are some agents that are large enough to affect the market price by their decisions, such agents have an arbitrage advantage over the poorer agents. The financial CCAPM MA pricing model has a number of implications, some of which are considered in this paper. Finally, some simple examples are considered to highlight the applicability of this paper to specific financial issues.     

Disclosure,shareholder oversight and the pay–performance link

This paper investigates the effect of increased shareholder oversight and disclosure about executive remuneration on the pay–performance relation, while controlling for contemporaneous changes in corporate governance practice. Our sample consists of 240 ASX-listed firms with annual reports available for each year over the period 2001–2009, a period which straddles the timing of regulatory change. We initially document the conjectured improvements in remuneration disclosure and shareholder oversight in the form of the advisory vote on the remuneration report. Following, we find as predicted a general strengthening of the pay–performance relation over the study period, with the increased sensitivity of reported CEO remuneration to firm performance being primarily related to enhanced remuneration disclosure and the non-binding shareholder vote on the remuneration report. Our results lead us to conclude that enhanced oversight over executive remuneration arrangements brought about by regulatory change has positively impacted the executive remuneration process by strengthening the pay–performance relation and making the process appear more accountable.     

Labor market dynamics under long-term wage contracting

Recent research seeking to explain the strong cyclicality of US unemployment emphasizes the role of wage rigidity. This paper proposes a micro-founded model of wage rigidity—an equilibrium business cycle model of job search, where risk neutral firms post optimal long-term contracts to attract risk averse workers. Equilibrium contracts feature wage smoothing, limited by the inability of parties to commit to contracts. The model is consistent with aggregate wage data if neither worker nor firm can commit, producing too rigid wages otherwise. Wage rigidity does not lead to a substantial increase in the cyclical volatility of unemployment.     

Blockholder monitoring and the efficiency of pay-performance benchmarking

In this article I examine how the performance sensitivity of CEO compensation is related to the level and turnover of outside block ownership. Separating firm performance into firm-specific (Skill) and exogenous (Luck) components, I find that pay sensitivity to Luck increases with blockholder turnover, whereas pay sensitivity to Skill increases with blockholding size. Furthermore, when blockholder turnover is higher, CEO pay increases more with positive Luck but does not decrease as much with negative Luck; also, excess CEO compensation is larger. Thus, the rent accruing to CEOs via asymmetric pay sensitivity to Luck is partly explained by short investment horizons of large shareholders.     

Saving and investing for early retirement: A theoretical analysis

We study optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a framework where investors adjust their labor supply through an irreversible choice of their retirement time. We show that investing for early retirement tends to increase savings and reduce an agent's effective relative risk aversion, thus increasing her stock market exposure. Contrary to common intuition, an investor might find it optimal to increase the proportion of financial wealth held in stocks as she ages and accumulates assets, even when her income and the investment opportunity set are constant. The model predicts a decrease in risk aversion following strong market gains like those observed in the nineties.     

Global demographic trends and social security reform

How sustainable are the current social security systems in the developed economies, given the projected demographic trends? The most recent literature has answered this question through dynamic general-equilibrium models in a closed-economy framework. This paper provides a new quantitative benchmark of analysis for this question represented by a two-region model (South and North) of the world economy where capital flows across regions. The timing and the extent of the demographic transition—and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices—are very different in the two regions. Thus, the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the North diverge substantially between closed and open economy. We perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios. Our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables (e.g., the value of the payroll tax) needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system, then these two benchmarks yield similar results. However, if the focus is on quantifying the path of factor prices, aggregate variables and, ultimately, welfare, then the two approaches can diverge significantly.     

Asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment-linked survival-contingent payouts

This paper shows how survival-contingent investment-linked payouts can enhance investor wellbeing in the context of a portfolio choice model which integrates uninsurable labor income and asymmetric mortality expectations. In exchange for illiquidity, these products provide the consumer with access to mutual-fund style portfolio choice, as well as the survival credit generated from pooling mortality risk. Our model generates optimal asset location patterns indicating how much to hold in liquid versus illiquid survival-contingent payouts over the lifetime, and also asset allocation paths, showing how to invest in stocks versus bonds. We show that the investor who moves her money out of liquid saving into survival-contingent assets gradually from middle age to retirement and beyond, will enhance her welfare by as much as 50%. The results are robust to the introduction of uninsurable consumption shocks in housing expenses, income flows during the worklife and retirement, sudden changes in health status, and medical expenses.     

The Effect of Labor Market Demand on U.S. CEO Pay Since 1980

This paper shows that the rise in U.S. chief executive officer (CEO) pay from 1980 to 2003 is only partially explained by competition for profit‐producing talent in the labor market. This conclusion is obtained by removing unintended data biases from tests of the only theoretical model in the literature that relates labor market competition (measured by large firm size) to CEO pay level. When the biases are removed or minimized, no more than 33% of the 600+ percentage rise in large‐firm CEO pay since 1980 is explained by a corresponding increase in large firm size.     

The Impact of Children on Women's Paid Work*

This paper investigates how and when differences in work behaviour between men and women develop, focusing on the evolution of the gender gaps over the period of family development. The findings support the theory that gender differences in the formal labour market stem from the presence of children in the home and that childbirth and children entering school are critical times in women's employment. Births mark a dramatic decline in participation in work for women, while school entry is a time of considerable turnover in participation. The length of absence from work following a subsequent birth is closely related to whether the mother was in work between births, while maternity pay and leave entitlements appear to influence the precise timing of the return to work. In addition, a return to work following birth is often only temporary. The gradual decline in women's relative wages following the first birth appears to stem from the accumulation of several shorter periods of unusually low wage growth for women around the times of birth and school entry. There is also a sharp movement into part‐time work for women following childbirth and a transition towards non‐permanent positions and non‐supervisory roles at both critical points.     

Efficient monetary allocations and the illiquidity of bonds

We construct a monetary economy with heterogeneity in discounting and consumption risk. Agents can insure against this risk with money and nominal government bonds, but all trades must be monetary. We demonstrate that a deflationary policy à la Friedman cannot sustain the constrained-efficient allocation as no-arbitrage imposes too stringent a bound on the return money can pay. The constrained-efficient allocation can be sustained when bonds have positive yields and, under certain conditions, only if they are illiquid. Illiquidity, meaning that bonds cannot be transformed into consumption as easily as cash, is necessary to eliminate arbitrage opportunities due to disparities in shadow interest rates.     

Dynamic factor long memory volatility

In this paper, we develop a long memory orthogonal factor (LMOF) multivariate volatility model for forecasting the covariance matrix of financial asset returns. We evaluate the LMOF model using the volatility timing framework of Fleming et al. [J. Finance, 2001, 56, 329–352] and compare its performance with that of both a static investment strategy based on the unconditional covariance matrix and a range of dynamic investment strategies based on existing short memory and long memory multivariate conditional volatility models. We show that investors should be willing to pay to switch from the static strategy to a dynamic volatility timing strategy and that, among the dynamic strategies, the LMOF model consistently produces forecasts of the covariance matrix that are economically more useful than those produced by the other multivariate conditional volatility models, both short memory and long memory. Moreover, we show that combining long memory volatility with the factor structure yields better results than employing either long memory volatility or the factor structure alone. The factor structure also significantly reduces transaction costs, thus increasing the feasibility of dynamic volatility timing strategies in practice. Our results are robust to estimation error in expected returns, the choice of risk aversion coefficient, the estimation window length and sub-period analysis.     

CEO pay and the Lake Wobegon Effect

The “Lake Wobegon Effect,” which is widely cited as a potential cause for rising CEO pay, is said to occur because no firm wants to admit to having a CEO who is below average, and so no firm allows its CEO's pay package to lag market expectations. We develop a game-theoretic model of this Effect. In our model, a CEO's wage may serve as a signal of match surplus, and therefore affect the value of the firm. We compare equilibria of our model to a full-information case and derive conditions under which equilibrium wages are distorted upward.     

In Defense of Pay-as-You-Go (Paygo) Financing of Social Security

Abstract

Today’s proposals to create larger social security funds and then invest them in the private sector are intended to create more rapid economic growth, which would make it easier to pay social security benefits in the long run. These proposals are also aimed at enhancing intergenerational equity by making today’s workers pay for a greater proportion of their future benefits.

The important public policy issues inherent in such proposals are numerous: questions of whether prefunded social security plans are demographically immune; whether prefunding social security can increase gross national savings and worker productivity; whether there are better ways to create a healthy economy; whether social security is best offered as a defined-benefit plan or a defined-contribution plan. This paper explores each of these important public policy issues in the context of the social security systems of Canada and the U.S.     

The impact of labor unions on investment-cash flow sensitivity

This paper empirically examines how labor unions affect investment-cash flow sensitivity using samples from the US covering the period of 1984–2009. We find a significant positive union effect using a q model of investment. The capital expenditures of firms are 1.71 times more sensitive to internal cash flows when unionization rates increase one standard deviation from the mean. This effect holds when we control for other proxies of financial constraints. In addition, unionized firms are associated with lower cash–cash flow sensitivity, which suggests that the higher investment-cash flow sensitivity in unionized firms is primarily driven by the incentive of these firms to reduce liquidity and enhance bargaining power against the union. We also show that the above union effects become more pronounced during labor contract negotiation years.