Asian Economic Problems and Prospects for Foreign Direct Investment: Local Evidence from the UK

This paper explores the implications of the Asian crises and economic problems in the Japanese economy on a UK region with a high dependence on employment in Asian manufacturing transplants. The paper examines the development of the Asian transplant sector in the case region (Wales), and maps out the economic significance of the sector on the local economy. Following a review of the potential impacts of economic problems in Asia on the local transplant sector, the paper uses local case evidence to explore recent changes in the Asian manufacturing base in Wales. Recent reversals in the transplant sector have largely been caused more by "local" manufacturing conditions. The paper concludes with a discussion of factors that are most likely to affect the trajectory of the Asian transplant sector in the case region in the new millennium.     

Structural Change in Chile: 1960–90

This paper attempts to analyze compositional structural change in Chile, especially during the period around 1974–90, when the most overt ‘neo-liberal’ experiment was forced on the country's economy and society. The main conclusion is that, while the service sector has moved in the correct direction, setting up important industries for the dynamic development of the country, the manufacturing sector has not performed equally well. The manufacturing sector has significantly shrunk its most sophisticated base, and relies mostly on traditional manufacturing that grows sluggishly. Export expansion is in manufacturing still a small proportion of exports. The primary sector is still the main export earner, but has significantly diversified. It appears that the economy has not moved fast enough towards, and does not appear to be geared by, the type of exports that may sustain a dynamic industrial development, based on external markets.     

AN INPUT–OUTPUT STUDY OF THE SINGAPORE INFORMATION SECTOR

The development and use of information and communication technologies is one of the key drivers of the ‘knowledge economy.’ In this paper, we investigate the impact of information technology on the output growth of the Singapore economy using the input–output framework. The input–output framework allows us to understand the impact of information sector in an integrated framework in terms of its linkages to the manufacturing and service sectors. In particular, we adopt the input–output approach to shed light on both production and diffusion activities of the information sector on the Singapore economy. The results indicate that the ICT sector provided the key linkages for the expansion of high-value added manufacturing activities and electronics export for the Singapore economy.     

Eurozone

The eurozone economy continues to be characterised by a wide divergence between robust activity in services and a struggling manufacturing sector, the latter still reeling from the impact of several transitory shocks as well as a deterioration in the external environment. While the services PMI still showed robust growth in Q2, rising slightly from Q1, its manufacturing counterpart portrayed a sector still firmly in contraction territory, albeit with some signs that activity is stabilising.     

一个改进的金融CGE模型及在分析存款准备金率中的应用

本文对传统的CGE模型进行了扩展和改进,通过加入商业银行和中央银行两个部门以及对储蓄—投资的转化机制较为细致和系统的设定,构建了一个金融可计算一般均衡分析框架。在此分析框架下,我们建立了金融—社会核算矩阵（FSAM）,并以此为数据基础,模拟了存款准备金率变动对我国宏观经济、部门经济的冲击效果。模拟结果表明,存款准备金率的调整在一定程度上能够调控宏观经济,并且下调准备金率的政策效果比上调准备金率的政策效果更为明显。从调整存款准备金率对部门产出的影响看,在居民的固定投资方向仅为建筑业的假设下,建筑业对存款准备金率的反应最为敏感,其次为服务业和工业,而农业部门的政策反应相对较小。     

Regional Foreign Direct Investment and Wage Spillovers: Plant Level Evidence from the UK Electronics Industry*

This paper examines the extent to which foreign investment in the UK generates wage spillovers in the domestic sector of the economy using a simultaneous dynamic panel data model and focusing on the electronics sector, possibly the most ‘globalized’ sector of UK manufacturing. It finds evidence that the higher wages paid by foreign firms cause wages in the domestic sector to be bid up. This phenomenon is, however, largely confined to the region where foreign direct investment takes place.     

基于自主创新体系的长三角制造业与技术后发优势

长三角制造企业将自主创新战略置于区域经济发展的突出地位,以构建适应社会主义市场经济的技术创新体系。长三角区域制造业的自主创新存在一些问题,但长三角制造业更有很多技术后发优势,建立在内生性技术创新努力的基础的优势,可以通过技术后发优势突破外部条件障碍,充分利用技术后发优势以解决问题,促进长三角制造业的持续发展。     

Fixprice-flexprice industries among Malaysian agrobased manufacturing: An input-output approach

Industries can be classified into fixprice sectors according to their pricing behaviour. Although Hicks and Morishima have broadly classified manufacturing industries into fixprice and the rest of the economy into flexprice, using cost-based input-output models, the present paper reclassifies Malaysian agrobased manufacturing into flexprice and nonagrobased manufacturing into fixprice categories. By compiling annual sectoral price indices, both for intermediate and primary inputs, the model estimates sectoral residual profits of 1978 and 1983 vintage technologies.     

The weak linkages between processing exports and the internal economy. The Mexican case

The aim of this paper is to show the internal linkages of manufacturing exports and the rest of the economy. We take the Mexican economy as the case of study. Manufacturing exports constitute the most of exports and processing exports (maquiladora) represent an important part of them. We consider the indirect domestic value added contained in Mexican manufacturing exports, dividing them into exports from the internal economy and the maquiladora industry. We show that the internal backward linkages of exports are weak, that only a few sectors produce inputs for exports, and that the forward linkages are weak too because the Mexican maquiladora industry assembles imported parts and components into final goods for export. The actual picture is quite different from that presented by Hirschman [(1958) The Strategy of Economic Development. New Haven, Yale University Press], who argued that the manufacturing sector plays a key role to promote economic growth because of its dense forward and backward internal linkages.     

Eurozone

The Eurozone economy has shown signs of having gone through a soft patch in Q1. The PMIs fell again in March, though they remain at levels above those seen in 2017 and consistent with strong GDP growth. The decline in manufacturing sentiment has been noticeably sharper, but coming off an even higher base. Meanwhile, the services sector continues to show a strong domestic economy, with employment growth displaying no signs of slowing yet.     

Market domain and structure in regional manufacturing instability

A decomposition of regional sectoral manufacturing employment variances is used as a basis for allocating instability to the markets in which the instability originates, including national, regional and internal. The effects of such attributes of industry structure as market power and economies of scale upon manufacturing sector instability is also investigated. Using data for Arizona over the years 1965–1985, 43% of Arizona's manufacturing instability is attributable to instability in national markets. The hypothesis that Arizona's instability can be attributed to market power differentials is rejected, but the effect of scale economy differentials is supported.     

论国际垂直专业化分工的工资效应——基于浙江制造业数据的实证分析

在全球生产网络化的背景下,中国制造业广泛参与国际垂直专业化分工,对劳动收入分配产生了重要影响。本文以外向经济较为发达的浙江省为例,测算了浙江26个制造业部门参与垂直专业化分工的程度,并就垂直化专业分工对浙江制造业工资收入的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:浙江制造业部门参与国际垂直专业化分工总体上提升了行业工资收入水平;垂直专业化分工对制造业工资收入的促进作用在资本密集型行业中比在劳动密集型行业中更大。本文最后就如何提升浙江制造业工资水平、缩小行业工资差距提出了相应对策建议。     

The effects of wage compression on unemployment and on the intersectoral distribution of employment: a dynamic model

A two-sector economy is modeled in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. If the steady state emerging in the absence of a minimum wage exhibits unemployment, the imposition of a binding wage floor lowers employment in the service sector without affecting employment in manufacturing. The wage differential between the two sectors shrinks and the quality of the service improves, but unemployment increases. In contrast, if this steady state exhibits full employment, a binding (but relatively low) minimum wage may bring about a more egalitarian income distribution and upgrade the quality of jobs in the service sector, without creating unemployment.     

The Pound and the Punt: A Study in Exchange Rate Policy

The rise in sterling during 1979 and 1980 was a remarkable and largely unexpected development While it has been accepted that the rise in the exchange rate played an important part in the reduction in the UK inflation rate during 1980 it has also been suggested that the appreciation of sterling was a major cause of the fall in output, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
In this Viewpoint we attempt to assess the effect of the rise in sterling on output and inflation by comparing the performance of the UK economy with that of the Irish Republic. As a member of the European Monetary System (EMS), Ireland shared the general depreciation of the European currencies against sterling. We suggest that the result has been a higher rate of inflation in Ireland than in the UK Also, although the Irish manufacturing sector avoided the UK's loss of competitiveness, the fall in manufacturing output in Ireland during 1980 was - when allowance is made for a higher underlying rate of growth in Ireland - comparable to that in the UK     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION LEGISLATION AND THE GROWTH OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

In modern developed economies it is the service sector that generates jobs. In Anglo-Saxon economies, where employment protection legislation is low and unions comparatively weak, services account for three-quarters of income and four-fifths of jobs. Yet in France, Germany and Italy, where the reverse is true, the service sector accounts for much less of the economy in terms of income and jobs. This article shows that employment protection legislation – defended by trade unions still dominating manufacturing in continental Europe – results in higher unemployment rates and also negatively affects the growth of services.     

An Analysis of Structural Change in China using Biproportional Methods

Traditional IO techniques have been used and applied in detail to the case of the Chinese economy with a view to describing and analysing the gradual, albeit radical, transformation of the Chinese industrial fabric since the beginning of the economic reforms. Using a Biproportional Filter, our study has a threefold objective: to measure and analyse structural change that has taken place in the Chinese manufacturing sector since 1985; to highlight those industries that have been most responsible for the change; and to explain the reasons for these changes.     

Financial development,portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa

According to the conservative view, capital flows enhance economic growth. Focussing on Africa’s real economy, this study investigates the linkage between portfolio investments and real sector growth, and whether financial sector development strengthens this association. The study covers 30 countries over the period 1990–2017. We adopt the Lewbel instrumental variable general method of moments (IV-GMM) two-step robust estimator, which relies on heteroscedasticity for identification, while dealing with instrument insufficiency, unavailability, endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We found that portfolio equity has no growth impact on Africa’s real sector. Debt flows deter the growth of the overall real sector as well as the manufacturing and industrial sectors, but have no impact on agriculture and service growth. We found that financial development does strengthen the positive association between capital flows and economic growth, but this is dependent on the type of sector and portfolio investment, as well as on the degree of financial development. We control for known determinants of economic growth.     

WHICH INDUSTRIES TO BAIL OUT FIRST IN ECONOMIC RECESSION? RANKING US INDUSTRIAL SECTORS BY THE POWER-OF-PULL

There have been intense debates regarding which industrial sectors should be prioritized for receiving bailout in economic recessions. This paper takes a network perspective to rank sectors according to the Power-of-Pull (PoP), i.e. a sector's power to pull the overall economy. An eigenvector method is employed to assess the PoP of sectors in the USA, using input–output data from 1998 to 2010. The results support bailout to the motor vehicle sector, but argue against bailout to public infrastructure, health care and information technologies design and service sectors, and also reveal the continual decline of PoP ranking of computer and electronics manufacturing sector over time. These results confirm some but also show little support to some other economic revival policies of the Obama Administration in the USA.     

Forecast Summary

The economy has entered a growth recession but we do not expect an absolute decline in output. Consumer spending has belatedly responded to higher interest rates but the key to the short-term outlook is the company sector whose financial position has deteriorated sharply. The response is likely to be a pause in the growth of investment and large-scale destocking - reminiscent of 1980-1. But the contrast with the early 1980s' recession is as important as the similarity: it is the "sheltered" sector which will bear the brunt of the demand slowdown. Exports and thus manufacturing industry will be boosted by a competitive exchange rate, and this will provide a significant, though one-off, improvement to the current account. The lower pound, actual and prospective, will hinder any reduction in inflation and it is not until 1992 that retail price inflation falls below 5 per cent.     

Sectoral co-movements of employment growth at regional level

This paper presents a comprehensive study of sectoral co-movements of employment growth in the entire Dutch economy. We construct different macro typologies according to manufacturing versus services, innovativeness, labour skills and position in the value chain, thus expanding the list of potential logics of sectoral interrelations. Using a vector autoregression model, we assess whether and how growth in a macro-sector, and in a given region, can predict growth in the same or other macro-sectors, in the same or in other regions. Our findings bring to light the inter-regional nature of intersectoral linkages, as well as the existence of complementarities between sectors. Supporting the growth of innovative firms could have positive externality effects, especially in the Knowledge-Intensive Business Services sector which is associated with the growth of the entire economy.