出其不意的央行货币政策

2006年8月18日,央行出其不意地上调了金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。金融机构一年期存贷款基准利率上调0．27个百分点,其他各档次存贷款基准利率也相应调整,长期利率上调幅度大于短期利率上调幅度。同时,也规定对个人消费信贷利率有所优惠。     

建立和完善我国金融监管体系

<正>一、建立“四位一体”的金融监管组织体系１、健全金融监管主体系统。人民银行要从严监管,这是金融监督管理的主体核心部分。对金融机构及其业务实施监督管理,人民银行是理所当然的组织者和承担者。因此,必须具备高素质的金融监管人员、科学完整的监测管理系     

金融全球化与我国中央银行金融监管目标模式重构

金融全球化在加速全球经济一体化的过程中,使全球性的金融市场日渐形成,不仅推动新的金融衍生工具产生,而且使各国金融面临接受和融入国际金融市场的新形势。金融全球化的新内涵不仅使全球金融业加速发展,也使得全球化金融风险和金融危机进一步深入和加剧。随着金融全球化的发展,金融监管也呈现出新的发展趋势和特点。我国即将加入WTO并将参与到金融全球化进程中,中央银行如何在金融全球化背景下实施更加有效的金融监管,已成为我国金融稳定发展的关键。     

Central Bank Communication and Financial Market Comovements in the Euro Area

Open Economies Review - We examine whether unscheduled communication of members of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council affects financial market comovements. To assess...     

完善地方金融管理体制的若干思考

随着地方金融组织发展壮大,部分地区探索建立完善地方金融管理体制,加强对区域内金融事务的协调管理。与此同时,地方政府行使地方金融管理职能过程中仍存在较多局限和不足。本文概述了地方金融管理的国际经验和国内目前的现状,剖析了地方金融管理中存在的一些问题,提出了建立完善适合我国国情的地方金融管理体制的相关建议。     

Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Transmission of Financial Crises

Central banks usually “park” their foreign exchange reserves in safe or highly liquid foreign assets. The paper illustrates that when central banks invest instead in risky foreign assets, then domestic banking crises can cause a crisis in the market for the foreign asset and vice versa. The paper takes its motivation from Asian central banks’ recent appetite for US government agency-debt securities such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.     

中央银行的独立性、政策信誉与通货膨胀目标制

通货膨胀目标制作为一种新兴的货币政策框架，近年来备受推崇。实行通货膨胀目标制国家的一个显著特点是大都实施了加强中央银行独立性的改革。本文依据不同的方法测算出实行通货膨胀目标制国家的中央银行独立性指数，分析了通货膨胀目标制框架下中央银行独立性加强与政策信誉之间的关系。     

Does Central Bank Transparency Impact Financial Markets? A Cross-Country Econometric Analysis

Blinder et al. (2001) argues that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of markets. We examine this claim by studying for a set of seven industrialized countries whether selected central banks' moves toward more open disclosure during the 1990s improved or worsened the predictability of the corresponding national financial markets. Employing methodologies analogous to Campbell and Shiller (1991), we find that for all countries, the forecasting error has decreased for interest rates on the respective government bonds across most maturity lengths, and that the expectations hypothesis has generally performed better at the short end of the yield curve. Our results also tentatively show that the effects are stronger for central banks that made the move to greater disclosure, compared to those banks that resisted increasing the public's information set. These findings are consistent with Tabellini's (1987) view that central bank secrecy will hinder the smooth functioning of financial markets.     

《上海经济研究》关于构建更加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制的征文

2020年3月30日,中共中央国务院出台了《关于构建更加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制的意见》,为深化这方面研究,《上海经济研究》编辑部特向全国征文。     

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Accountability

We analyse the issue of central bank accountability with the aid of a simple monetary policy game with uncertainty about the agent's inflation stabilisation preferences. We find that there may be an important economic role for accountability in addition to its political function of making the central bank answerable to voters through its accountability to the executive. The model suggests that for countries with relatively little central bank independence, or perhaps a poor inflationary track record, significant reductions in inflation can be achieved by lowering monetary policy uncertainty. These reductions are much smaller for inflation-averse central banks, when monetary policy uncertainty is reduced by the same absolute amount. Thus, the effectiveness of accountability – as a means of lowering both inflation and inflation uncertainty – is higher the lower the degree of central bank conservativeness.     

央行政策剑指“资金流动性过剩”

《国务院2008年工作要点》近日公布．《要点》全面部署了2008年宏观调控方向，继续实行稳健的财政政策．实行从紧的货币政策。值得注意的是，国务院表态，在“加强和改善宏观调控”方面，提出“既要防止经济由偏快转为过热，抑制通货膨胀，又要防止经济下滑，避免大的起落”。此项“双防”表述另有新意。这表明当前宏观调控的复杂性和艰巨性。     

关于中国农业政策性金融体系的探索

农业政策性金融在目前中国农村经济发展中起着无法替代的作用,但商业化改革趋势及其带来的问题使之作用发挥受到了限制。文章在借鉴其他国家建立政策性金融体系经验的基础上,分析中国农业政策性金融应该采取的融资方式、业务范围、所有制形式和监管方式,提出完善中国农村政策性金融体系的对策建议。     

Structural Asymmetries and the Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument of the European Central Bank

Although the existence of differences in economic structure across European countries is well known, their implications for the conduct of the single monetary policy in Stage Three of EMU have not yet been analyzed. This paper explores the issue on the basis of a two-country, rational-expectations, stochastic model characterized by asymmetric structural equations and a general formulation for monetary policy. Only if financial shocks are the main source of instability can heterogeneity in structures be neglected. When real shocks to aggregate demand prevail, their geographical distribution and the difference in the elasticity of aggregate supply are the key factors governing the response to structural differences. When supply shocks predominate, irrespective of their geographical distribution monetary policy should lean against the wind with more determination than if countries were identical. Differences in the transmission lag of monetary policy or some concern for growth when pursuing price stabilization reduce the size of the correction in monetary policy called for by structural asymmetries.     

完善政策 创新工作思路——河南省商务厅助推企业“走出去”

随着中国对外开放政策的不断深入，国民经济持续快速发展，“引进来”与“走出去”两轮并驱的开放型经济逐步显现出来，尤其是近年来河南省企业“走出去”对外投资的步伐明显加快。     

商业银行公司治理中的监管机制及其法律制度完善

商业银行公司治理,需要通过各种具体的法律制度构建来实现。监管机制及其法律制度完善在商业银行公司治理中具有重要的意义。国际商业银行监管模式经历了行政命令式规制、标准化方法规制以及目前普遍采用的内部模型规制。完善我国商业银行的监管需要从以下几个方面着手：第一,借鉴国际商业银行监管及立法先进经验,构建完善的监管制度体系。第二,商业银行监管机构应该明确自己的监管职责并认真落实。第三,监管机构应该特别注意完善相关的评价机制。     

商业银行公司治理中的监管机制及其法律制度完善

商业银行公司治理,需要通过各种具体的法律制度构建来实现.监管机制及其法律制度完善在商业银行公司治理中具有重要的意义.国际商业银行监管模式经历了行政命令式规制、标准化方法规制以及目前普遍采用的内部模型规制.完善我国商业银行的监管需要从以下几个方面着手:第一,借鉴国际商业银行监管及立法先进经验,构建完善的监管制度体系.第二,商业银行监管机构应该明确自己的监管职责并认真落实.第三,监管机构应该特别注意完善相关的评价机制.     

Central Bank Communication in a Low Interest Rate Environment

When interest rates are low, or negative, central banks must increasingly rely on effective communication to ease the stance of monetary policy. Empirical evidence suggests that the ECB’s forward guidance, consisting of a carefully expounded series of expectations involving both key policy rates and asset purchases, has been successful in (i) reducing the sensitivity of forward rates to macroeconomic news, (ii) insulating euro area financial conditions from external shocks and (iii) providing additional monetary policy accommodation at a time when the room for cuts in key policy rates has been very limited. At the same time, a central bank cannot always be sure how its forward guidance works and much of the challenge arises from the interaction between central banks and financial markets. In this environment, and for forward guidance to be credible and effective, policymakers need to be clear about their reaction function, regularly align their policy expectations with the evolving assessment of the state of the economy and its likely evolution, and act accordingly.     

金融税制与货币政策效应

金融税制是一国管理金融活动的有关税收的法律法规的总和。金融税制影响金融市场效率和各类金融活动主体的行为,通过利率传导机制和信贷配给传导机制对货币政策效应产生影响。为保证货币政策能顺利传导,我国目前应进一步完善针对金融市场的流转税和所得税制度,对商业银行不宜取消现行的营业税或急剧降低营业税税率,应针对不同业务细化和完善相关的流转税制度。