Are Investors Sensitive to the Quality and the Disclosure of Financial Statements?

This paper investigates the influence of Swiss firms'disclosure policy and of their financial analysts'coverage on stock price abnormal reactions to thepublication of the annual reports. It first showsthat, after controlling for the number of analysts,the absolute abnormal returns are significantly andpositively affected by the rating measure used as aproxy of the informational quality of annual reports.It furthermore emphasises asymmetry in therelationship between stock price abnormal reactionsand two informational variables, namely the quality ofthe firm's disclosure policy and its financialanalysts' coverage. It appears that while positiveabnormal returns are significantly and positivelyrelated to the rating variable, negative abnormalreturns are only affected by the number of financialanalysts. The inverse relationship between abnormalnegative returns and the financial analysts' coveragesupports the fact that competition among analystsreduces investors' adverse selection problem. Finally,the study evidences a non-linear relationship betweenrating and positive abnormal returns which ismeaningful for the ``good' and ``very good type' firmsand thus emphasises the signaling role played by afirm's financial disclosure policy.     

Are Investors Sensitive to the Quality and the Disclosure of Financial Statements?

This paper investigates the influence of Swiss firms' disclosurepolicy and of their financial analysts' coverage on stock priceabnormal reactions to the publication of the annual reports.It first shows that, after controlling for the number of analysts,the absolute abnormal returns are significantly and positivelyaffected by the rating measure used as a proxy of the informationalquality of annual reports. It furthermore emphasises asymmetryin the relationship between stock price abnormal reactions andtwo informational variables, namely the quality of the firm'sdisclosure policy and its financial analysts' coverage. It appearsthat while positive abnormal returns are significantly and positivelyrelated to the rating variable, negative abnormal returns areonly affected by the number of financial analysts. The inverserelationship between abnormal negative returns and the financialanalysts' coverage supports the fact that competition amonganalysts reduces investors' adverse selection problem. Finally,the study evidences a non-linear relationship between ratingand positive abnormal returns which is meaningful for the "good"and "very good type" firms and thus emphasises the signalingrole played by a firm's financial disclosure policy.     

Do Decomposed Financial Ratios Predict Stock Returns and Fundamentals Better?

We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios, which include dividend‐price ratios, earnings‐price ratios, and book‐to‐market ratios, by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess returns and fundamentals. Cyclical components predict increases in future stock returns, while stochastic trend components predict declines in future stock returns in long horizons. This helps explain previous findings that financial ratios in the absence of decomposition find weak predictive power in short horizons and some predictive power in long horizons. We also find both components predict fundamentals.     

Does Poor Performance Damage the Reputation of Financial Intermediaries? Evidence from the Loan Syndication Market

We investigate the effect of poor performance on financial intermediary reputation by estimating the effect of large‐scale bankruptcies among a lead arranger's borrowers on its subsequent syndication activity. Consistent with reputation damage, such lead arrangers retain larger fractions of the loans they syndicate, are less likely to syndicate loans, and are less likely to attract participant lenders. The consequences are more severe when borrower bankruptcies suggest inadequate screening or monitoring by the lead arranger. However, the effect of borrower bankruptcies on syndication activity is not present among dominant lead arrangers, and is weak in years in which many lead arrangers experience borrower bankruptcies.     

Is the Virtual Integration of Financial Markets Beneficial in Emerging Markets? Evidence from MILA

This article analyzes whether the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA) has been beneficial for its participants. Using a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), we found evidence that creating MILA increased the correlation levels in stock returns of member countries. Evidence indicates that this increase occurs mainly due to the increase in traded volume in the country with the least developed stock market—Peru.

In short, findings suggest that in an integration process such as MILA, as stock market members differ, in terms of stock market development, the markets will benefit from the integration. However, in the long term these benefits dissipate over time.     

Can Audit Partners Predict Subordinates' Ability to Detect Errors?

This study examines audit partners' predictions of the ability of managers and seniors to detect financial statement errors. If partners are unable to predict the ability of their subordinates to detect errors, audit effectiveness may be affected. Audit partners are asked to predict which members of the audit team (managers or seniors) are able to detect specific types of errors. These predictions are then compared to errors detected by managers and seniors that are seeded in working papers. The results show that partners (1) exhibit significant overconfidence in the ability of subordinates to detect errors, (2) are more accurate in predicting managers' performance than seniors, (3) are more accurate at predicting subordinates' ability to detect mechanical (simple) errors than conceptual (complex) errors, and (4) are not better at predicting subordinates' ability to detect more frequent and more important errors than less frequent and less important errors.     

On the ‘Steady State’ Properties of Financial Ratios

This paper uses the methods of continuous time stochastic calculus to investigate the ‘steady state’ properties of financial ratios. Basing our analysis on previous work in the area, we show that, if a financial ratio can be characterised as a diffusion process which possesses an asymptotic equilibrium, then the Fokker-Kolmogorov-Planck forward equation may be used to ‘retrieve’ its probability density. The approach is ‘flexible’ enough to incorporate a wide variety of density functions, many of which have not been investigated in the literature. We demonstrate the procedures which may be used to derive both the cross-sectional and time series tests implied by these distributions. The paper also includes a section dealing with the methods which may be used for parameter estimation, once the underlying distribution has been determined.     

Why Do Stock Prices Drop by Less Than the Amount of the Dividend? Evidence from a Unique Environment

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of a lack of an automated limit order adjustment mechanism on ex-dividend day stock price behavior in a unique environment in which there are no taxes on dividends and capital gains. It finds that the overnight drop in the ask price is smaller than the overnight drop in the bid price. In addition, the study finds that average price drops are smaller than the dividend amount for all dividend sizes. I also find no evidence of a sawtooth-shaped relationship between the dividend amount and the ex-day price drop. These results are generally consistent with the lack of an automated limit order adjustment mechanism.     

With Economic Integration Comes Financial Contagion? Evidence from China

China's economy has maintained a rapid growth rate over the past two decades; however, its stock market has exhibited a very different level of performance during financial crises. In this paper, we try to explain this phenomenon and answer two important questions: Is there financial contagion in China? Can economic integration aggravate financial contagion? We construct a composite index of economic integration by reviewing the incremental reform and opening-up process in China's financial markets. We utilize a dynamic conditional correlation model to capture the correlations between stock returns of China and those of other important markets around the world. The empirical results provide positive evidence for the aforementioned two questions.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Are Risk Management Disclosures Informative or Tautological? Evidence from the U.S. Banking Sector

Banks experienced increasing risk levels during the latest financial crisis. Investors’ confidence was shaken by the effectiveness of bank risk management practices, which has opened new challenges for bank management in approaching its risk. Understanding and communicating adopted risk management mechanisms is likely to provide insights and enable diagnosis on firm risk exposure. Conveying data that reduces information asymmetry might be reflected on stock performance. Investigating the impact of risk management disclosures content on stock price change and return volatility, using a sample of U.S. national commercial banks during 2009–2010, shows that informative risk management disclosures seems to be valued by investors. This is reflected on current‐year stock prices and reduces the subsequent‐year return variances.     

Does Corporate Governance Predict Future Performance? Evidence from Hong Kong

This study uses time‐series data to examine the relation between changes in the quality of corporate governance practices and subsequent market valuation among large listed companies in Hong Kong. The results indicate that firms that exhibit improvements in the quality of corporate governance display a subsequent increase in market valuation, whereas firms that exhibit deterioration in the quality of corporate governance practices tend to encounter a decline in market valuation. Additionally, the impact is greater for firms that are included in the MSCI index or with a China affiliation. The results provide evidence in support of the notion that good corporate governance can predict future market valuation.     

What determines the profitability of banks? Evidence from Spain

This paper empirically analyses the factors that determine the profitability of Spanish banks for the period of 1999–2009. We conclude that the high bank profitability during these years is associated with a large percentage of loans in total assets, a high proportion of customer deposits, good efficiency and a low doubtful assets ratio. In addition, higher capital ratios also increase the bank’s return, but only when return on assets (ROA) is used as the profitability measure. We find no evidence of either economies or diseconomies of scale or scope in the Spanish banking sector. Finally, our study reveals differences in the performance of commercial and savings banks.     

Are Analysts’ Recommendations Informative? Intraday Evidence on the Impact of Time Stamp Delays

We demonstrate that time stamps reported in I/B/E/S for analysts’ recommendations released during trading hours are systematically delayed. Using newswire‐reported time stamps, we find 30‐minute returns of 1.83% (?2.10%) for upgrades (downgrades), but for this subset of recommendations we find corresponding returns of ?0.07% (?0.09%) using I/B/E/S‐reported time stamps. We also examine the information content of recommendations relative to management guidance and earnings announcements. Our evidence suggests that analysts’ recommendations are the most important information disclosure channel examined.     

Does good governance matter to debtholders? Evidence from the credit ratings of Japanese firms

Consistent with existing evidence based on US firms, we show that good governance is associated with higher credit ratings. The most significant variables are institutional ownership and disclosure quality. This finding suggests that active monitoring (by large shareholders) and lower information asymmetry (through better disclosures) mitigate agency conflicts and reduce the risk to debtholders. Credit ratings are also found to increase with board size, consistent with a moderation effect in large decision-making groups. As a rule, firms are expected to benefit from better governance by being able to access funding at a lower cost and in larger amounts.     

Are Financial Constraints Priced? Evidence from Firm Fundamentals and Stock Returns

Using comprehensive firm‐ and aggregate‐level data, this paper studies the real and financial implications of capital market imperfections. We first examine whether financially constrained firms' business fundamentals (capital spending and operating earnings) are more sensitive to macroeconomic movements than unconstrained firms' fundamentals. We then examine whether financial constraint “return factors” respond to macroeconomic shocks in tandem with the responses from business fundamentals. The evidence in this paper points to financial constraints affecting both fundamental quantities and asset returns.     

Does the signature of a CPA matter? Evidence from Taiwan

This paper employed aquestionnaire survey to investigate the opinions of audit report stakeholders in Taiwan regarding the regulation of signatures in audit reports. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) proposed these regulations in 2009, and again in 2011 with a slight alteration. Most respondents agree that having the engagement partner sign the audit report could increase the accountability of CPAs. In addition, the participants believed that knowledge of the name of the engagement partner is important for the users of audit reports. Both of these views are consistent with the views voiced by the PCAOB. Most of the respondents also believe that the regulation of signatures would increase the legal responsibility of the engagement partner and minimize the role of firms in the auditing process. Finally, the respondents felt that the engagement partner has a much greater responsibility when their signature is in the audit report than when it is disclosed elsewhere, indirectly supportingthe second proposal of the PCAOB, which, rather than having the engagement partner sign their name on the audit report, simply lists the names of engagement partners elsewhere.     

Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?

Several studies suggest that a firm distress risk factor could be behind the size and the book-to-market effects. A natural proxy for firm distress is bankruptcy risk. If bankruptcy risk is systematic, one would expect a positive association between bankruptcy risk and subsequent realized returns. However, results demonstrate that bankruptcy risk is not rewarded by higher returns. Thus, a distress factor is unlikely to account for the size and book-to-market effects. Surprisingly, firms with high bankruptcy risk earn lower than average returns since 1980. A risk-based explanation cannot fully explain the anomalous evidence.     

Can Management Turnover Restore the Financial Statement Credibility of Restating Firms? Further Evidence

This paper investigates the association between management turnover following financial restatements and the probability of subsequent restatements. We find that restating firms that replace management (CEO and/or CFO) are more likely to restate their financial statements again. We also find that subsequent restatements are mainly attributable to the new management. Overall, our results suggest that management turnover following restatements may not be an effective mechanism to remediate financial restatements, but the change to a new management results in a greater possibility of lower earnings quality (i.e., higher probability of subsequent financial restatements and accruals‐based earnings management). Our study supports prior literature's findings that the change in the top management leads to organizational instability and higher accounting information risk. Our findings have implications for internal decisionmaking with regard to top executive replacement.     

Is Working Capital Information Useful for Financial Analysts? Evidence from China

Financial analysts are important information intermediaries in the capital market. This study investigates whether information about working capital management is useful for financial analysts of Chinese firms. With a sample of listed companies from 2004 to 2014, we find that the efficiency of working capital management is positively associated with the number of analyst following and analyst forecast accuracy, and negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion. Specifically, when the cash conversion cycle becomes longer, number of analyst following and the accuracy of their mean forecasts decrease, while the forecast dispersion increases. The findings of this study indicate a potential mechanism through which information about working capital management is incorporated in stock price in emerging markets such as China.