投资需求、利率机制与我国财政政策的有效性

本文在传统凯恩斯模型和新古典总供需模型的基础上构建了一个可计量的财政政策利率效应分析模型,并利用2LS方法对模型进行了估计,得出几点结论:一是我国财政政策对真实利率的影响在统计上并不显著;二是财政政策与真实利率之间无关性的估计结果并没有受财政赤字弥补方式和经济运行机制变化的影响;三是相对于财政政策,我国货币政策对真实利率的影响更显著,货币政策的相机变化通过利率机制对财政政策的有效性产生了一定的抵消作用,但程度有限。上述结论意味着,我国财政政策通过利率机制对私人部门投资需求产生的挤出效应是相当有限的。     

中国的LM曲线理论

LM曲线是凯恩斯理论体系的主要分析工具.LM曲线向右上方倾斜是为人们普遍接受的论断,我国学者也从这个论断出发,分析中国商品市场和货币市场的均衡.然而,由于我国公众的投机性货币需求与利率同方向变动,决定了我国的LM曲线向右下方斜,之所以如此的根本原因在于我国利率市场化尚不完善,中央银行也没有以买卖国债为调节货币供给的主要方式.     

LB-LM的分析框架--一个基于会计学基础的宏观分析理论

IS－LM分析是宏观经济学中最流行和最简洁的工具。LB－LM分析是IS－LM分析的一个替代，都可用来分析产出和利率的关系。但它们只是在角度上有所不同。前者集中在限制或约束厂商和政府部门开支的金融行为上，后者集中分析产出和开支的关系，金融行为只是一个隐含的量。LB－LM分析方法的基础来自于会计学原则下编制的资产负债表和资金变动表等，并增加了一个以银行为代表的金融机构分析，它与财政政策，货币政策一起，成为影响市场利率，产出水平的重要变量。     

金融发展中的货币需求稳定性研究--基于1994～2005年的协整分析

本文以经济改革和金融发展为背景，从经典货币需求理论分析出发，运用协整检验和误差校正模型对我国货币需求的稳定性问题展开研究。分析结果表明，货币需求、国民收入、利率和通货膨胀率之间存在协整关系；我国货币需求主要受收入因素影响而呈现出长期稳定性特征，长期稳定的货币需求对其即期增长的抑制作用不明显，货币需求函数表现出高收入弹性和低利率弹性，而利率的外生性削弱了货币需求对利率的调节作用；基于VEC模型的短期Granger因果检验，支持货币量、利率和货币政策最终目标之间短期均衡关系的存在。     

谈货币财政政策与经济结构调整

一、对当前货币财政政策的评析(一)货币政策 当前有效需求不足的状况有以下两方面原因：一是我国的货币需求缺乏利率弹性。二是我国目前正处于国有银行商业化改革阶段，商业银行的资金硬约束导致其货币供给的自动收缩，从而与这种扩张的货币政策产生矛盾，使货币政策难以发挥效用。     

协整设定和约束检验及其对我国货币收入速率的实证

本文基于严格的检验，对我国货币M2的长期稳定以及它的收入速率的功能等问题进行协整和弱外生检验，结论表明，我国货币收入速率对于货币需求的长期稳定具有显著作用，而这种长期稳定对货币收入速率又具有显著的调节效应。这一结论隐含了我国货币政策效应可以辅之以货币收入速率予以考察并可以用货币收入速率辅助调节货币需求，而我国利率则是关注参数的弱外生变量，这一结论支持有关扩大利率的浮动范围的利率政策。     

经济分割与利率政策效应的变异

本文首先对经济分割条件下利率的投资和消费效应从理论上进行了推导，在此基础上，利用中国的样本资料对所得结论进行了验证。文章认为，在金融市场分割的条件下，利率的消费效应被弱化，利率降低的主要效应是促使消费者将金融资产由货币市场转移到证券市场；在企业部门分割的条件下，虽然中小企业投资效率要高于国有企业，但在融资市场中它们却处于相对不利的地位。     

M—F模型与小野模型评介

MundeH—Fleming（简称M-F）模型讨论开放经济下财政货币政策对各国所得水平及贸易收支的影响，是传统的IS—LM模型在开放经济下的延伸。该模型早已成为当今各国制定财政、货币政策的理论基础。然而M—F模型存在诸多缺陷，如中期分析不考虑有效需求不足所引起的工资物价调整；中长期分析完全忽视对外资产（负债）的利息收支对收入与消费的影响；长期分析中充分就业的收入水平的决定机制不明确等。更为甚者，该模型缺乏微观基础，其中的消费函数、投资函数以及货币需求函数都是随意假定的（adhoc）。因此用该模型作为制定经济政策的依据难免有失妥当。     

货币流量分析框架下的稳健财政政策预期效果研究

本文通过货币流量分析的方法对稳健财政政策的预期效果进行研究，以考察各宏观经济变量在稳健财政政策下，对产出或收入的影响。研究结果表明，央行调整货币政策，应考虑其对财政的影响，否则，难以达到预期的效果；稳健财政政策的实施，将为我国政府深化收入分配政策的结构性改革提供宽松的经济与社会环境，有利于中央财政加大对经济欠发达地区的支出力度；稳健的财政政策更有利于政府实行总量控制下的结构调整，优化产业结构，达到稳健财政政策预期的效果；实施稳健财政政策，防止了在长期过程中“紧缩效应”的显现，降低了财政风险，进而避免经济波动所产生的社会福利损失。     

积极财政政策的效应分析

我国近年来采取的积极财政政策．有其特定的实施背景。从理论上讲，积极财政政策与扩张性财政政策之间的联系，在于两者均以刺激有效需求为主要目标；两者之间的区别，在于积极财政政策更多地依靠增发并运用国债的手段作为支撑。从实践上看．积极财政政策所产生的积极效应是明显的，而且也为我们应对经济运行中的难点问题积累了经验。今后．应该围绕如何形成扩大有效需求的内在机制，改进财政政策手段的运用方式。     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

The Creation of the Office for National Statistics

A new Office for National Statistics was created in the United Kingdom in 1996 following a series of developments designed to strengthen the relevance and integrity of statistics. This paper describes these fundamental changes and sets out a blueprint for future progress. It also sets current developments in the United Kingdom in an historical and international context.     

What helps? Women engineers' accounts of staying on

We have considerable understanding of the obstacles that women engineers encounter and the reasons that they leave the field, but we know less about what enables them to remain. Adopting an interpretivist approach, this article examines how a group of British women engineers in two FTSE 100 companies account for “staying on” in their male‐dominated work settings. We delineate four specific forms of help that facilitate women's retention in the field. We argue that exposure to help leads to women developing a habitus that enables them to continue working in engineering. To conclude, we draw on our findings to outline HR practices that will facilitate supportive relationships in the workplace and pave the way towards developing more positive organisational climates.     

论现代物流企业的发展观

物流业经过诸多年的发展目前已经成为最热门的行业之一,物流企业的注册数量也与日俱增,达到前所未有的规模。毋庸置疑,任何企业都希望自己迅速做强做大,并成为真正现代物流企业的典型代表,要实现这一目标一个首要问题就是要解决现代物流企业的发展观问题。     

浅谈大体积混凝土裂缝的控制

大体积混凝土的裂缝问题是实际工程中长期困扰工程技术人员的问题,其控制技术的研究是混凝土结构研究的热点问题,具有重大的学术价值和潜伏的工程背景。     

Supply Chain Strategies in the UK Fashion Industry—The Rhetoric of Partnership and Realities of Power

This paper focuses on the fashion industry, one characterised by issues such as dramatic shifts in the scale and power of major retail buyers in the market, the advent of retailer own brands, and the nature of sourcing and supply chain decisions, issues that are increasingly global in nature. The aim of this research is to explore the nature of relationships between UK high street multiple fashion retailers and their contracted suppliers, many of whom are entrepreneurial firms by most definitions of the term. Four core themes emerge from the literature and provide a framework for the research, namely, power, process, partnership, and people. The research approach was qualitative, and conducted over a period of twelve months. The paper ends with an agenda for future research.