我国证券投资基金与股市和债市的波动相关性——基于BEKK模型和失败检验法的研究

本文基于多元GARCH模型中的三元对角BEKK模型,分析了我国沪深两市基金与股票、国债市场的波动相关性,并通过失败检验法得出波动相关的具体数值.研究结果表明:沪深两市基金市场与股票市场和国债市场都具有显著的时变方差特征和波动持久性;沪市基金市场与股票市场存在30％左右的正向波动相关度,而深市基金市场与股票市场的正向波动相关性很小;两市基金市场都与国债市场有较大的负向波动相关性,表现出对波动明显的非对称效应.     

国际原油市场极端风险的测度模型及后验分析

采用可以捕捉收益分布尾部极端风险的ES(Excepted Shortfall)指标,同时基于时变高阶矩波动模型和常规GARCH族模型建立风险测度模型,并在多、空头寸共20个分位数水平下,综合对比了不同模型在国际原油市场风险测度中表现出的精确性差异。研究结果表明:时变高阶矩波动模型可以刻画原油市场收益分布中的时变偏度和时变峰度特征,更好地测度原油市场的极端风险,同时GARCHSK-M模型表现出了相对最高的风险测度精确性,可以作为测度原油市场极端风险相对合理的模型选择。     

基于连续时间动态模型的投资型寿险需求研究

在寿险需求文献的基础上,构建一个投资型寿险需求的连续时间动态模型。新模型将投资型寿险分解为定期寿险与一种投资品的结合,其中用以购买定期寿险的保费减少了财富存量,而用以投资的保费则增加了财富水平。在给定初始财富、死亡率、利率、时间偏好、风险偏好、投资型寿险平均收益以及风险方差等条件下,给出了CRRA效用函数下投资型寿险需求的均衡显式解。使用比较动态模型方法,进一步探讨了各参变量对投资型寿险需求的影响效应。     

取消寿险保单预定利率限制的可行性分析

投资风险与定价风险是寿险公司面临的主要风险,而定价风险的主要表现就是保单预定利率过高。本文首先通过建立寿险公司经营模型,证明保单预定利率管制不仅能降低定价风险,对寿险公司的投资风险防范也具有重要作用;接着使用实证方法得出我国股票市场变化对寿险保费收入没有确定性影响,实际利率变化也只能在短期内导致寿险保费收入反向变化。基于以上分析,本文认为在我国当前情况下,放开保单预定利率限制的时机还不成熟。     

中国股市的变结构动态相关性分析

对沪深股市综合指数运行过程的研究发现，上证综指与深圳综指的相关性过程具有变结构特征。本文采用自组织特征映射（SOM）神经网络的聚类功能对变结构点进行测定，并采用时变copula模型对变结构点前后相关性过程进行了建模。实证结果表明，经验动态相关性可以对市场风险加以体现，而内在动态相关性则会对市场发展的成熟度提供理论借鉴。     

我国随机死亡率的长寿风险建模和衍生品定价

长寿风险近年来对各国保险业、养老金体系、社会保障体系造成大规模影响,成为保险和风险管理学术界关注和研究的重点。采用国际前沿的研究方法,系统深入地采用中国数据研究这一问题。在Lee-Carter模型的基础上,通过双指数跳跃扩散模型对Lee-Carter模型中的时间序列因子进行拟合,较好地刻画了中国人口死亡率的长寿跳跃和死亡跳跃;引用Swiss Re死亡债券度量长寿风险的市场价格,预估未来中国人口死亡率,并得出了寿险衍生品Q型远期的中国定价。     

经济周期与银行业资产质量

国际经验显示,商业银行资产质量呈现周期性波动,并且与宏观经济周期有较强反向相关性。信贷规模顺周期扩张行为,后景气时期企业偿债能力与负债成本错位,也对银行资产质量造成压力。资产价格自高位快速回落往往成为资产质量恶化的导火索,房地产市场泡沫破裂是其中典型情形,波及面最为广泛,影响最为深远。影响银行业资产质量的宏观要素经济增长与资产不良率逆相关。经济周期与银行业资产质量的相关度较高,经济环境变化是决定客户违约率的最重要变量。理论研究与实践均证明:在经济高涨期,企业经营良好,利润水平较高,同时贷款抵押品价值也较高,银行贷款的资产质量     

基于MVGARCH模型的美元市场与黄金现货市场溢出效应与时变相关性研究

通过构建MVGARCH-BEKK与MVGARCH-DCC模型,研究美元市场与黄金现货市场的溢出效应与时变相关性。BEKK模型显示美元市场与黄金现货市场存在双向的溢出效应,采用DCC模型得到二者之间的时变相关系数。最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

保险产业的慈善捐赠、产品集中度与财务绩效

本文借助委托代理理论、利益相关者理论等学说,对险企的社会公益行为与绩效的关系进行了思考与分析。研究以2009—2015年的27家财险公司与58家寿险公司面板数据为研究样本,利用Heckman样本选择模型、Arellano-Bond动态面板模型等验证了本文的理论假设。研究表明,财险公司的车险专业化程度对公益表现与经营绩效的关系具有正向调节作用,而寿险公司中的慈善捐赠与经营绩效的关系不明显;车险专营化程度越高的财险公司,公益表现对经营绩效积极效应越高。这给财产保险业带来的启示是:财险公司的声誉风险因与其核心能力相关性不强而难以内部化解决,更好的做法是与次要相关利益方建立良好互利关系,获取相应互补性资源。此外,若财险企业目标客户更偏向于市场个人消费者,且以车险现金流支撑公司运作,则更需借助公益表现树立品牌形象、提高市场竞争力、规避声誉风险。     

利率波动对寿险经营风险的影响研究

利率是金融的重要杠杆,在利率逐步趋向市场化的今天,利率水平的高低不再完全由中央银行来决定,而是根据货币市场、资本市场的供求关系由市场来决定。寿险业是对利率极其敏感的行业之一,利率风险是寿险业的主要市场风险。从经济学角度分析,利率的波动导致寿险市场的均衡发生变化,从而产生寿险市场的需求量的变化,其实质是寿险市场的替代效应与价格效应的共同作用结果。从寿险公司运作的角度分析,利率的波动将直接影响寿险公司的偿付能力和资金运作。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.