World food prices and poverty in Indonesia

Spikes in international food prices in 2007–2008 worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, both rural and urban, but only by small amounts. The paper reaches this conclusion using a multisectoral and multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The negative effect on poor consumers, operating through their living costs, outweighed the positive effect on poor farmers, operating through their incomes. Indonesia's post‐2004 rice import restrictions shielded its internal rice market from the temporary world price increases, muting the increase in poverty. But it did this only by imposing large and permanent increases in both domestic rice prices and poverty incidence. Poverty incidence increased more among rural than urban people, even though higher agricultural prices mean higher incomes for many of the rural poor. Gains to poor farmers were outweighed by the losses incurred by the large number of rural poor who are net buyers of food, and the fact that food represents a large share of their total budgets, even larger on average than for the urban poor. The main beneficiaries of higher food prices are not the rural poor, but the owners of agricultural land and capital, many of whom are urban based.     

Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Increasing water scarcity combined with an increasing demand for food and water for irrigation call for a careful revision of water use in agriculture. Currently, less than 60% of all the water used for irrigation is effectively used by crops. Based on the new version of the GTAP‐W model we analyze the effect of potential water savings and the welfare implications of improvements in irrigation efficiency worldwide. The results show that a water policy directed to improve irrigation efficiency led to global and regional water savings, but it is not beneficial for all regions. The final effect on regional welfare will depend on the interaction of several different causes. For instance, higher irrigation efficiency changes opportunity costs and reverses comparative advantages, modifying regional trade patterns and welfare. For water‐stressed regions the effects on welfare are mostly positive. For nonwater scarce regions the results are more mixed and mostly negative. The results show that exports of virtual water are not exclusive of water abundant regions.     

Payoffs from research and development along the Australian food value chain: a general equilibrium analysis

The payoffs and distribution of payoffs from research and development (R&D) along the food value chain depend on many interacting economic factors. To quantify these, we have developed a general equilibrium model of the Australian economy with detailed farming, processing and marketing information. We use the model to assess potential payoffs and distributions from various R&D scenarios that lead to demand expansion and productivity improvement. We find that productivity improvement caused by R&D is unambiguously beneficial to the whole economy while the benefits of export or domestic market demand expansion mainly accrue to the primary producers and processing industry, when the economy is at full employment. Also, productivity improvement from R&D on‐farm may benefit processors while improvements postfarm may benefit farmers.     

World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand

A multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Thai economy is used to analyze the implications of recent increases in international food prices. Higher food prices, especially staple grains, worsen poverty incidence in Thailand despite the presence of large numbers of poor farmers, many of whom benefit from higher prices. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers is dominated by the negative effect on poor consumers. Of the recent price increases for rice, sugar, cassava, maize, soybeans, urea, and petroleum, the increases in rice prices raise poverty incidence the most, despite Thailand being the world's largest rice exporter.     

GM crop technology and trade restraints: economic implications for Australia and New Zealand*

How much might the potential economic benefit from enhanced farm productivity associated with crop biotechnology adoption by Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) be offset by a loss of market access abroad for crops that may contain genetically modified (GM) organisms? This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to estimate effects of other countries' GM policies without and with ANZ farmers adopting GM varieties of various grains and oilseeds. The gross economic benefits to ANZ from adopting GM crops under a variety of scenarios could be positive even if the strict controls on imports from GM‐adopting countries by the European Union are maintained, but not if North‐East Asia also applied such trade restaints. From those gross economic effects would need to be subtracted society's evaluation of any new food safety concerns and negative environmental externalities (net of any new environmental and occupational health benefits), as well as any extra costs of segregation, identity preservation and consumer search.     

Agricultural trade reform under the Doha Agenda: some key issues*

A successful agreement on agriculture is essential for an overall agreement under the WTO's Doha trade negotiations. Reaching agreement has been difficult, and as of August 2007, much still remains to be done if a successful agreement is to be reached. We consider three of the most controversial areas of the agricultural negotiations: the relative importance of domestic support, market access and export subsidies; three market access issues of sensitive‐product exceptions sought for all countries and, the additional special product exceptions sought for developing countries, the proposed special safeguard mechanism; and the domestic support issue. We show that decisions made on reform in these areas will have a critical influence on whether the negotiations achieve their objectives of promoting trade reform and reducing poverty.     

The effects of direct storage subsidies under limited rationality: a general equilibrium analysis

We study here the effects of a public subsidy to private storage set up at world level. To simulate the welfare effects and impacts on market fluctuations of this subsidy, we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model assuming imperfect expectations. We also perform different statistical analysis based on our CGE results and show that the storage subsidy can have the undesired effect of destabilizing agricultural markets, depending on the form of economic agents’ price expectations and on the structure of the shocks impacting the agricultural production.     

Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

Consumers' willingness to pay for organic rice: Insights from a non-hypothetical experiment in Indonesia

As in many high-income countries, there is increasing awareness towards organic farming in many low- and middle-income countries. Sustained local demand is an essential requirement for further adoption of organic farming by smallholders, who typically have only limited access to export markets. Until now, only few studies have explored the local willingness to pay (WTP) for organic products in low- and middle-income countries in real purchase situations. This paper analyses the consumers' WTP for organic rice in urban and suburban Indonesia using an incentive-compatible auction based on the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (BDM) approach. We further study the effect of income and a randomised information treatment about the benefits of organic food on respondents' WTP. Estimates suggest that respondents are willing to pay an average price premium of 20% compared with what they paid for conventional rice outside our experiment. However, our results also indicate that raising consumers' WTP further is complex. Showing participants a video about health or, alternatively, environmental benefits of organic food was not effective in further raising WTP. The results can be used as a basis for the design of alternative awareness measures to increase knowledge, interest and demand for organic food.     

Building an effective coalition to improve forest policy: Lessons from the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest,Sumatra, Indonesia

In recent history, Indonesian forest policies have been dominated by deforestation in the name of economic progress. Many actors have expressed concerns about this trend and have tried to reverse it in favour of a more sustainable pathway. From 2004–2017, non-governmental environmental organisations fought for the case of the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest in the province of Aceh, Sumatra. Unique in Indonesian history, they managed halting and reversing the deforestation of an area. Their sustained action led the Indonesia state to cancel an oil palm plantation permit, with the plantation managers and owners facing heavy fines and prison terms. Our research seeks to understand the enabling factors making this success story possible. We used the Advocacy Coalition Framework for its capacity to deal with a complicated policymaking ecosystem whose decisions takes years for implementation.Our analysis found four enabling conditions of success, which were the NGOs capacity to: 1) sustain action for over a decade and grasp four changing events (post-tsunami reconstruction, emerging connection between forests and climate change, governors’ change, and use of digital technologies); 2) learn from own past failures marked by the evolution of their policy core beliefs, from ‘conserving forest for biodiversity’ to ‘conserving forest for local livelihoods’, and then to ‘conserving forest to prevent climate change’. As a result, they could broaden their advocacy coalition, which grew to include diverse social actors from local to international levels, including the central state's REDD + Task Force; 3) take an advantage over economic power by acting strategically and timely when changes occurred; and 4) closely monitor and disseminate knowledge (fire events, deforestation trends and peat depth), supporting a simple causal deforestation model which allowed a high degree of policy-oriented learning, helping the coalition to change its behaviour and act strategically.To sum up, the overall trend of rainforest destruction for agricultural extension in Southeast Asia, particularly in Sumatra, Indonesia, can be reversed, at least at the local level. Cautious not to overgeneralise, the Tripa case indicates that NGOs could improve forest governance by engaging in the long term, acting strategically, and building a broad socio-ecological and rights-based coalition.     

Contract theory and agricultural policy analysis: a discussion and survey of recent developments*

This paper surveys some recent developments in contract theory and illustrates how this theory might be useful for conceptualising policy issues related to vertical coordination and contracting in the agro‐food industry. The article begins by surveying contract theory to identify key economic distortions that can potentially justify government involvement. Next, the general ingredients of agricultural contracts that are most likely to create inefficiencies are discussed. Finally, controversial aspects of real‐world agricultural contracts are highlighted and lessons from the theory are used to determine whether government intervention is justified. Actual legislation that has been proposed in the USA is analysed where appropriate and topics that await further research are also discussed.     

Role of Trade in Satisfying U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Demand

Increases in U.S. consumer incomes result in an increase in imports' share of U.S. consumption. Although U.S. consumers reduce the quantity demanded in response to higher import prices, the reduction is sufficiently inelastic that exporter revenue increases. U.S. Free Trade Agreements have made fresh fruits and vegetables available throughout the year and may also have broadened the U.S. marketing window for imports. Now U.S. food safety regulations favor large operations that can absorb the fixed and seasonal food safety related costs. Therefore, the brunt of the increased import competition is borne by small and medium-size producers.     

Tariffs and steel: US safeguard actions*

A multiproduct spatial equilibrium model of world steel trade is presented in this paper. The model is used to analyse the impacts of the safeguard trade barriers brought about by the USA in order to protect their domestic industry from the so‐called unfair competition. Emphasis is placed on the likely effect on the Australian industry and possible policy responses available to the industry. A case study is made of Australia's three largest export products; namely, slab, hot‐rolled and cold‐rolled steel, which share some substitutability in supply and demand because of the nature of the industry. As a result of the safeguard barriers to steel trade, world steel prices fell and trade shifted away from the USA to other importing regions.     

Medium-term EU integration impacts on Norwegian agriculture: A partial equilibrium analysis

The paper analyses and discusses possible impacts on Norwegian agriculture of an EU membership based on the regionalized agricultural sector model CAPRI. Norwegian agriculture is characterized by a small-scale farming structure and high levels of support. Previous analyses have shown that Norwegian agriculture is expected to undergo dramatic changes because of EU membership in terms of farm income, production and structural change. Our study indicates that a substantial share of the agricultural production can be maintained at the national level. Milk and crop production may remain largely unaffected, while meat production decreases in the range of 10-20% compared to a reference run without membership. However, a reduction in total farm income by about 40% indicates that structural adjustments will follow EU accession. The results are discussed in view of the pattern of adjustments observed in Finland and Austria after EU accession in 1995. The need for the dairy industry to take advantage of the improved market access is stressed. Attention is also called to some strengths and limitations of the CAPRI model to analyse large-scale policy changes and to identify model improvements as an area of future research.     

Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal

This paper investigates the feasibility of changes in cropland-use as an adaptation strategy to minimise the economy-wide costs of climate change on agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it is one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies within South Asia. We develop a comparative static multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal, with a nested set of constant elasticity of transformation (CET) functional forms, to model the allocation of land within different agricultural sectors. Land transformation elasticities in these CET functions are allowed to reflect the ease of switching from one crop to another based on their agronomic characteristics. The results suggest that, in the long run, farmers in Nepal tend to allocate land to crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy, thereby minimising the economy-wide impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the results reveal that land-use change tends to reduce the income disparity between different household groups by significantly moderating the income losses of marginal farmers. Therefore, it is suggested that policy makers in Nepal should prioritise schemes such as providing climate-smart paddy varieties (i.e., those that are resistant to heat, drought and floods) to farmers, subsidising fertilizers, improving agronomic practices, and educating farmers to switch from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not, such as paddy.     

Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis

The rapid growth of biofuels production, particularly in the United States, the EU, and Brazil, has had important implications for the global livestock industry—both by raising the cost of feed grains and oilseeds and by forcing onto the market a large supply of biofuel by‐products, most of which end up in livestock feed rations. This article investigates the impact of an expanding biofuels industry on the mix and location of global livestock production. Surprisingly, we find that growth in the U.S. and EU biofuels industries results in larger absolute reductions in livestock production overseas than in those regions, due to the international transmission of grains prices which is offset locally by the lower cost of by‐products. We also find that nonruminant production is cut more than ruminant livestock, because it is less able to use biofuel by‐products in its feed rations. Implementing biofuel mandates increases cropland area, a large portion of which is estimated to come from reduced grazing lands. The biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and increase imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils, while they increase their exports of processed feed materials. In sum, biofuel mandates have important consequences for livestock as well as crops, with net effects influenced by the important role of by‐products in substituting for feedstuffs.