Protecting Biotechnology IPRs in Developing Countries: Simple Analytics of a Levy Solution

High transaction costs and an absence of institutional infrastructure in developing countries prevent comprehensive enforcement of intellectual property rights and generate obstacles to the adoption of genetically modified (GM) crop technology. Governments of developing countries that are members of the World Trade Organization are faced with two options when licensing GM crop technology: (1) attempt to regulate GM crops to the standards of the Agreement on Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) or (2) allow a black market in GM seeds and risk trade retaliation from the GM innovator's host country through a TRIPS trade complaint. This paper develops a conceptual model that frames the adopting country's range of licensing options, including a new levy system, and derives welfare measures for each option. The model illustrates how a levy on GM technology can be a welfare‐increasing policy for developing countries, and the operation of a levy is discussed. The conceptual model is applied to Brazil's soybean market and quantitative economic surplus measures are estimated within a calibrated welfare model for a range of licensing scenarios. The model's results suggest that a levy may interfere with the long‐term prospects for innovators to collect monopoly rents in adopting countries.     

Is Bt Cotton a Pro‐Poor Technology? A Review and Critique of the Empirical Record

Policy makers, journalists and other commentators have hailed genetically modified (GM) crops as a ‘pro‐poor’ success in the developing world. Their confidence appears to be justified by the encouraging conclusions reached by academic studies on the performance and impacts of GM crops, which seem to provide convincing evidence of substantial benefits for smallholders in developing countries. However, a detailed, critical examination of studies on transgenic, insect‐resistant cotton in China, India and South Africa demonstrates that the technology's impacts have been evaluated and represented in selective and misleading ways. The performance and impacts of GM crops have in fact been highly variable, socio‐economically differentiated and contingent on a range of agronomic, socio‐economic and institutional factors. The shortcomings of the GM crop‐impacts literature have done a disservice to public and policy debates about GM crops in international development and impeded the development of sound, evidence‐based policy.     

International diffusion of gains from biotechnology and the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy

This paper analyses the impact of adopting or rejecting genetically modified (GM) crops in the European Union, taking into account the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In this paper the productivity impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) differs across crops, taking factor biased technology change into account. The transfer of knowledge across countries is modelled as a process of endogenous knowledge spill-overs. Analysis with a multi-region applied general equilibrium model shows that the CAP protects farm income and production despite non-adoption of the more productive GM crops in the EU. The EU will forgo substantial benefits in terms of economic welfare if it bans GM imports.     

Assessing the Implementation Effects of the Biosafety Protocol's Proposed Stringent Information Requirements for Genetically Modified Commodities in Countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

We analyze the potential effects of a generalized implementation of the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety's proposed stringent information requirements on countries, members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This rule would request all traded shipments containing living modified organisms intended for food, feed, or processing to carry a label with the list of precise genetically modified (GM) events in the shipments. We find that the benefits of such requirements are largely debatable and that this regulation would add significant implementation costs for importers of GM crops, for Protocol members adopting new GM crops, and for countries ratifying the Protocol.     

Bt Cotton,Pesticide Use and Environmental Efficiency in Pakistan

There is a broad literature on the impact of Bt cotton adoption in different countries, but few studies have explicitly looked at environmental and health effects from an economic perspective. We analyse the impact of Bt cotton on environmental efficiency in Pakistan, using farm survey data and a doubly heteroskedastic stochastic production function framework. Negative environmental and health effects of chemical pesticide use are quantified with the environmental impact quotient. Bt‐adopting farms have higher cotton yields, while using lower pesticide quantities and causing less environmental damage. Bt farms are both technically and environmentally more efficient than non‐Bt farms. Bt adoption increases environmental efficiency by 37%. Achieving the same reduction in negative environmental and health impact without Bt would cost conventional cotton farmers US$ 54 per acre in terms of foregone yields and revenues (7% of total revenues). Extrapolating this shadow price of the technology's health and environmental benefits to the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan results in an aggregate value of US$ 370 million. These benefits are in addition to the profit gains for Bt‐adopting farmers. Our results suggest that Bt technology can contribute to sustainable agricultural development.     

Consumer willingness to pay for genetically modified food in Kenya

Genetically modified (GM) crops are popular in many regions of the world, but their deployment in Africa is hindered by safety concerns and regulatory issues, although the continent is in dire need of boosting its food production. Although consumers' acceptance of GM food has been analyzed in many continents, no such studies have been conducted in Africa. Therefore, a survey of 604 consumers was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2003, to gauge consumers' awareness of GM crops, their willingness to pay (WTP) for GM food, and the factors that influence their WTP. Consumers' knowledge of GM crops was limited and only 38% of the 604 respondents were aware of GM crops. People in higher education and income groups were more aware than others. Regardless, people were generally appreciative of the technology, and a large majority (68%) would be willing to buy GM maize meal at the same price as their favorite brand. Consumers were, however, concerned about possible side effects, especially on the environment and biodiversity. WTP was estimated using a double‐bounded dichotomous choice model, and the mean WTP was found to be 13.8% higher than the average price of non‐GM maize meal. Perceptions of health risk, and ethical and equity concerns had a negative influence on the likelihood of purchasing GM maize meal, whereas trust in government to ensure food quality had a positive influence on WTP. People with at least some secondary education and those in the high‐income category were more likely to purchase GM maize meal at the same price. The study concludes that, because awareness is still low, appropriate communications are needed to involve the consumer in the debate. Consumers' acceptance in this study was high, but the research needs to be expanded to rural areas, where most consumers live, and other survey methods need to be explored.     

A latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in Uganda

This study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified (GM) staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization. We focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease‐resistant GM banana variety in Uganda, where bananas are among the most important staple crops. A choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana (such as bunch size, technology, producer benefit, and price) and examine their opinions on GM foodstuff. Choice data come from 421 banana‐consuming households randomly selected from three regions of Uganda. A latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept GM bananas. Our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample. GM bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the Eastern region. These food‐insecure households would experience the highest benefits (i.e., welfare gains) from the commercial release of GM bananas. In contrast, urban consumers are less accepting of GM bananas, and they would experience significant welfare losses if GM banana is released. According to our welfare estimates, both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large. These results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of GM bananas on the Ugandan society as a whole.     

Valuing the Impacts of An Invasive Biological Control Agent: A Choice Experiment on the Asian Ladybird in France

Initially used as a biological control against aphids, the Asian ladybird has become highly invasive in many regions, including Europe. While biological control is usually considered as an environmentally‐friendly alternative to chemical pesticides in controlling pests in crops, there is growing concern that these environmental benefits could be outweighed by the negative consequences of the invasion. These include (i) biodiversity losses as populations of native ladybirds suffer from intraguild predation and competition for resources; (ii) human nuisance in houses, including risks of allergy and (iii) potential losses to wine‐growers. We provide an economic valuation of environmental and private characteristics affected by the Asian ladybird's invasion. We conduct a discrete choice experiment among a representative sample of the French population. Our results show that the consequences of the Asian ladybird's introduction do affect significantly the population's welfare. Among these, the impact on biodiversity through the threat on native species appears to be a significant concern.     

Economywide effects of climate‐smart agriculture in Ethiopia

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under climate change. Few studies, however, quantify at the national scale CSA's economic effects or compare CSA to input‐intensive technologies, like fertilizer or irrigation. Such quantification may help with priority setting among competing agricultural investment options. Our study uses an integrated biophysical and economic modeling approach to quantify and contrast the economywide effects of CSA (integrated soil fertility management in our study) and input‐intensive technologies in Ethiopia's cereal systems. We simulate impacts for 20‐year sequences of variable weather, with and without climate change. Results indicate that adopting CSA on 25% of Ethiopia's maize and wheat land increases annual gross domestic product (GDP) by an average 0.18% (US$49.8 million) and reduces the national poverty rate by 0.15 percentage points (112,100 people). CSA is more effective than doubling fertilizer use on the same area, which increases GDP by US$33.0 million and assists 75,300 people out of poverty. CSA and fertilizer have some substitutability, but CSA and irrigation appear complementary. Although not a panacea for food security concerns, greater adoption of CSA in Ethiopia could deliver economic gains but would need substantial tailoring to farmer‐specific contexts.     

Ex Ante Impact Assessment under Imperfect Information: Biotechnology in New Member States of the EU

Some argue that the lack of modern agricultural development in the former socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe has made cutting‐edge biotechnology attractive. However, enthusiasm for planting genetically modified (GM) crops varies greatly in the enlarged European Union (EU) and especially among the New Member States (NMS); the Czech GM maize area is progressively growing whereas Hungary imposed a de facto ban on GM crops. Remarkably, the Hungarian ban was not supported by any cost–benefit assessment. In the literature, ex ante impact assessments of monopolistically priced technologies are often based on cross‐sectional comparisons of average cropping budgets. Such assessments ignore heterogeneity of farmers and underestimate the true impact of these technologies because of homogeneity bias. Therefore, we propose an improved method by explicitly modelling farmer heterogeneity under imperfect information, and assess the potential value and benefit sharing of GM crops in the two NMS using a stochastic partial equilibrium model. The total potential value of GM crops is estimated at €82 million for both countries, of which €60 million (73%) accrues to farmers and €22 million (27%) to the gene developers and the seed industry. This is in line with the literature on global benefit sharing of first‐generation GM technologies.     

The Formation of GM‐free and GM Coasean Clubs: Will They Form and If So How Much Can They Achieve?

The unintended presence of traces of genetically modified (GM) crops in the harvests of non‐GM crops plays a prominent role in the debate over the coexistence of GM and non‐GM crops. One way to address the issue is the formation of GM‐free or GM‐only clubs. We model the decisions of individual farmers to cultivate either GM or non‐GM crops and combine this with a game theoretic model of club formation to investigate the feasibility of such clubs. We consider two liability regimes: GM farmers are liable or they are not. We consider two benchmarks: Nash equilibrium without negotiations and the efficient allocation and compare those with partial co‐operation through a Coasean club. We find that in both regimes a relatively large club can form but they are not always necessary to reach the efficient allocation. In fact, if farmers can freely decide under profit maximisation what to cultivate, they reach 95% of an efficient allocation. This holds independent of the property rights system and provides strong support for coexistence policies based on ex‐post liability such as in the US and Spain.     

On the Segregation of Genetically Modified,Conventional and Organic Products in European Agriculture: A Multi‐market Equilibrium Analysis

Evaluating the possible benefits of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops must address the issue of consumer resistance as well as the complex regulation that has ensued. In the European Union (EU), this regulation envisions the co‐existence of GM food with conventional and quality‐enhanced products, mandates the labelling and traceability of GM products and allows only a stringent adventitious presence of GM content in other products. All these elements are brought together within a partial equilibrium model of the EU agricultural food sector. The model comprises conventional, GM and organic food. Demand is modelled in a novel fashion, whereby organic and conventional products are treated as horizontally differentiated but GM products are vertically differentiated (weakly inferior) relative to conventional ones. Supply accounts explicitly for the land constraint at the sector level and for the need for additional resources to produce organic food. Model calibration and simulation allow insights into the qualitative and quantitative effects of the large‐scale introduction of GM products in the EU market. We find that the introduction of GM food reduces overall EU welfare, mostly because of the associated need for costly segregation of non‐GM products, but the producers of quality‐enhanced products actually benefit.     

Duration Analysis of Technological Adoption in Ethiopian Agriculture

Duration analysis has been used to examine the impact of time‐varying and time‐invariant variables on the speed of adoption of fertiliser and herbicide by smallholder farmers in East and West Shewa in the central highlands of Ethiopia in the 25 years preceding 1996. The estimated models suggest that economic incentives were the most important determinants of the time farmers waited before adopting new technologies; traction power in the form of oxen and infrastructural factors (in particular proximity to markets) also appear to have been important influences, but less so than prices. Other agricultural inputs (area of farmland, labour, credit), extension services and farmers' personal characteristics (education, gender, age) appear to have had little, if any, effect on adoption behaviour. There is also evidence that the speed of adoption of herbicide, on both tef and wheat, was slower than that of fertiliser.     

Landscape Clubs: Co-existence of Genetically Modified and Organic Crops

The possibility of increased production of genetically modified (GM) crops in agriculture accentuates the need to examine the feasibility of GM and non‐GM technologies co‐existing on a common physical landscape. Using the theory of clubs, this paper examines the possibility of co‐existence for GM and organic wheat technologies through the formation of an organic club with an endogenously determined buffer zone. Given the available data on prices, and yields, it is shown that a club can be created in which GM and organic agricultural production technologies can economically co‐exist in the same physical landscape. Specifically, co‐existence results in an increase in economic welfare over a situation where only GM technology is used but is not Pareto superior because producers in the buffer zone will incur injury. We show that organic producers in the club can compensate producers in the buffer zone and still be better off. Hence, the compensation principle holds. La possibilité de production accrue de cultures génétiquement modifiées (GM) accentue la nécessité d'examiner la faisabilité de coexistence des technologies GM et non GM dans un même paysage agricole. À l'aide de la théorie des clubs, le présent article a examiné la possibilité de coexistence des technologies de culture de blé GM et de blé biologique en créant un club ?biologique? comprenant une zone tampon déterminée de façon endogène. Compte tenu des données disponibles concernant les prix et les rendements, il est montré qu'il est possible de créer un club au sein duquel les technologies de production de cultures biologiques et GM peuvent économiquement coexister dans un même paysage naturel. Spécifiquement, la coexistence engendre une augmentation du bien‐être économique par rapport à une situation où seule la technologie GM est utilisée, mais elle n'est pas Pareto supérieure parce que les producteurs dans la zone tampon subiront des dommages. Nous montrons que les producteurs de cultures biologiques membres du club peuvent indemniser les producteurs de la zone tampon tout en demeurant en bonne position. Le principe de compensation tient donc.     

Canadian consumer acceptance of gene-edited versus genetically modified potatoes: A choice experiment approach

In 2016, second-generation genetically modified (GM) potatoes were approved for production and sale in Canada. In this study, we analyze how consumer acceptance of GM potatoes may be affected by various factors, including the trait introduced (i.e., the product benefits), the type of breeding technology used, and the developer of the potato using any technology. We conduct an online survey and use a stated choice experiment to collect data on consumer acceptance of GM and other potatoes in Canada. Random utility models are used to analyze the economic value consumers place on the various attributes of the potatoes. Our results show that consumers are willing to pay more for a health attribute (reduced acrylamide produced when potatoes are fried) and an environmental attribute. Respondents in general need to face discounted prices to buy potatoes created by either gene editing or GM (either transgenic or cisgenic/intragenic) technologies. However, consumers are in general more accepting of the gene editing technology than the GM technologies. Our results also show that government is the most preferred developer of the potatoes, regardless of technology. Results from this study can help guide public and private management of the introduction of new foods when the products are developed with unpopular technologies.     

Assessing the returns to R&D on perennial crops: the costs and benefits of Pierce's disease research in the California winegrape industry

Several complicating issues arise in evaluating the returns to research into varietal improvements for perennial crops compared with annual crops. We elucidate and address these issues in the context of a case study of research aiming to develop varieties that are resistant to Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines. PD imposes costs of over $100 million per year on the California grape industry, even with public PD control programs in place. Research projects to develop PD resistant varieties of grapevines are at various stages of completion. We describe the economic problems posed by PD, document the research programs undertaken to address the disease and present an economic assessment of the returns to the investment, which are conditional on other policies. Using a simulation model of the market for California winegrapes, we estimate the benefits from research, development and adoption of PD‐resistant vines as ranging from $4 million to $129 million annually over a 50‐year horizon, depending on the length of the R&D lag and the rate of adoption. In addition to these specific quantitative results the paper offers insight into the broader question of economic evaluation of damage‐mitigation technology for perennial crops.     

Do they always say no? German consumers and second‐generation GM foods

European consumers and, in particular, German consumers are known to be very critical toward the introduction of genetically modified (GM) foods. It is analyzed here whether German consumers do reject second-generation GM foods, too. Whereas first-generation GM crops induced producer-related benefits, second-generation GM crops are associated with consumer-oriented benefits like an improvement of nutritional quality. The determinants of demand for second-generation GM rapeseed oil are investigated within an online survey of 1,556 German consumers. It is elaborated how two functional properties of the product matter; that is, long-chain omega-3 fatty acids and the cholesterol-lowering effect of phytosterols. It turns out that GM rapeseed oil is neglected by 74% of all respondents. Output traits, however, will increase the probability of purchases of GM rapeseed oil. This is more the case for long-chain omega-3 fatty acids than for phytosterols.     

Stakeholder views on issues to consider when assessing the sustainability of genetically modified potato

The importance of assessing socio-economic and sustainability aspects of genetically modified (GM) crops is increasingly recognized by policy-makers, both within the EU and internationally. Nevertheless, experience has shown that it is challenging to assess and implement these aspects in actual decision-making processes. This paper argues that stakeholder engagement may provide valuable insights when developing frameworks for sustainability assessment of GM crops. We organized two stakeholder workshops with the aim to gather perspectives on the sustainability of cultivating late blight resistant (LBR) GM potato in Norway. Sixteen Norwegian stakeholders involved in potato production and in agriculture in general took part in the workshops. Here, we present and discuss the outcomes of this participatory approach. The stakeholders identified several conditions that an LBR GM potato ought to satisfy in order to contribute to sustainable development. These conditions concerned environmental and health safety aspects of cultivating LBR GM potato, potential for fungicide reductions, durability of the LBR GM potato plant's resistance, farmers' profitability and consumer acceptance. In addition, the stakeholders considered issues such as maintenance of a diversity of potato cultivars, transparency during product development and risk assessment processes, ownership and control and opportunity for independent risk research as important considerations in a sustainability assessment. While focusing on a specific application of agricultural biotechnology, we believe that these findings are useful contributions to the ongoing efforts to develop frameworks and guidelines for assessing sustainability and socio-economic considerations of GM crops in general.     

Valuing financial,health, and environmental benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan

Data from a farm survey and choice experiment are used to value the benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan. Unlike previous research on the economic impacts of Bt, which mostly concentrated on financial benefits in terms of gross margins, we also quantify and monetize health and environmental benefits associated with technology adoption. Due to lower chemical pesticide use on Bt cotton plots, there are significant health advantages in terms of fewer incidents of acute pesticide poisoning, and environmental advantages in terms of higher farmland biodiversity and lower soil and groundwater contamination. Farmers themselves value these positive effects at US$ 79 per acre, of which half is attributable to health and the other half to environmental improvements. Adding average gross margin gains of US$ 204 results in aggregate benefits of US$ 283 per acre, or US$ 1.8 billion for the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan.