水贫困背景下中国农村水资源援助战略研究

农村水资源短缺是制约我国粮食安全的瓶颈问题。在对农村水资源援助战略进行概念界定的条件下,从农村水资源供需矛盾、农村水环境恶化、水利基建资金投入不足、小型农村水利设施产权制度急需改革和农村基层人才科技投入不足5方面,分析了我国农村水资源面临的突出问题。基于突出用水效率,坚持用水公平,以水资源的可持续利用为最终目标,力求援助战略的科学性、前瞻性和战略性,构建了农村水资源援助战略体系,主要涵盖了农村水资源统一管理、农村水利工程建设、农田水利基建资金供给、农村水资源经济补偿、农村水资源配置管理和农村水资源法律保障体系6个部分,并对今后农村水资源援助战略的实施,提出了有效的对策建议,以保障农村水资源的长久可持续利用。     

Removing border protection on wheat and rice: effects on rural income and food self‐sufficiency in China*

In this paper, I use the Monash Multi‐Country model – a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of China, Australia and the Rest of the World – to analyse the effects of removing border protection on wheat and rice in China. The analysis points to the possibility that removing border protection on wheat and rice may lead to an increase in rural income in China. This is mainly due to the following two factors. First, removing border protection on wheat and rice not only leads to a contraction in agricultural activities, but also leads to an expansion in manufacturing and services activities. Second, on average, rural households in China obtain over half of their income from manufacturing and services activities.     

The impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality: a case study in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This article examines the impact of rural‐to‐urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income, we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. Our results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality, this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (1) migration is rational self‐selection—farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and/or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate; (2) households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate; (3) poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration.     

经济增长与收入再分配对湖北省农村贫困变动的影响

本文通过对湖北省否受益并相关结论贫困变动由人均收入水平和收入分配不平等程度两个因素共同决定。贫困变动的增长再分配分解，考察1997—2003年间如上两个因素村贫困变动的影响方向和程度，进而分析在经济增长过程中穷人是算和比较基尼系数，考察在此期间农村居民的收入分配状况，得出对农测。     

农户参与乡村旅游扶贫适应性评价指标体系研究

构建农户参与乡村旅游扶贫适应性评价指标体系,以福建省福鼎市赤溪村参与乡村旅游扶贫的农户为调研对象,运用AHP(层次分析法)计算各指标的权重;根据农户调研实际情况,运用适应性评价模型对农户的适应性综合值进行计算并评价。结果表明:对农户参与乡村旅游扶贫适应性影响最大的是经济适应性因子,影响最小的是生态适应性因子;对乡村旅游扶贫政策的了解度、年旅游收入、家庭成员从事乡村旅游的意愿度以及对游客的欢迎度的综合权重较大,传统节庆活动的参与度、使用清洁能源程度的综合权重较小;总体评价为较为适应,但综合得分值较低,仅为3.106。最后,根据农户的实际适应性情况,提出完善乡村旅游基础设施、加大扶贫政策宣传力度、提高旅游扶贫政策利用程度、给予困难农户更大的扶持力度、创新旅游经营模式和实行多项扶持的发展建议。     

Asset versus consumption poverty and poverty dynamics in rural Ethiopia

Several studies have shown conceptually that assets form a more robust basis for identifying the poor than do flow variables like expenditures or income. Asset‐based poverty classification can be used to distinguish structural from stochastic poverty and can enable projection of poverty dynamics through time. Nonetheless, little work has empirically compared poverty measurement based on assets and expenditures to indicate the practical implications of the choice of poverty measure. This article uses panel data (between 1994 and 2004) from Ethiopia to generate asset‐ and expenditures‐based poverty classifications. Asset dynamics are then explored to test for the existence of multiple asset index equilibria that could constitute evidence of poverty traps. Results provide evidence of multiple equilibria and show that the asset‐based poverty classifications predict future asset and expenditures poverty status more accurately than expenditures‐based measures. The findings confirm that the asset‐based measure could be used to more carefully target poverty interventions.     

Agricultural commercialisation,asset growth and poverty in rural Vietnam

Poverty remains a substantial threat in rural areas of many developing countries, and solving this problem requires an in-depth understanding of the income generating capacity that determines poverty. This paper examines the impact of agricultural commercialisation on the capability of rural households to accumulate and productively use assets and reduce structural and multidimensional poverty. A longitudinal dataset of around 2000 households with a total of 9781 observations from five rural surveys undertaken in the period 2008–2017 in Vietnam is used. Results from a fixed effects regression with an instrumental variable and a control function approach show that agricultural commercialisation has a positive effect on the accumulation of assets and reduces multidimensional and structural poverty over time. However, the effect is not homogeneous and is larger for households that are not mainly engaged in rice commercialisation. This suggests that commercialisation can be a path out of poverty, especially if policy makers move towards utilising other crops instead of rice.     

Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

This paper uses multiple rounds of panel data to assess the distributional implications of the variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression‐based inequality decomposition approach to estimate the impact of climate‐induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time‐invariant and time‐variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10% increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52% on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25% and 43% of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16% and 31% of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.     

非自愿移民致贫机理与减贫路径研究综述

非自愿移民贫困已成为深刻影响家庭生计、社区重建、社会稳定的特殊问题。以制度结构论、文化心理论、网络资源论为分析框架,对非自愿移民致贫根源与脱贫路径的相关成果进行系统归纳和梳理,识别出政策设计及执行、心理调适及融入、资源动员及整合等3项影响移民贫困的关键要素,指出应当构建起政府、移民、社区及其他社会组织协同参与的贫困治理体系。进一步研究的主要挑战在于非自愿移民贫困的测度困难和治理滞后,因此加强跨学科比较的理论研究和精准化治理的实践探索是未来重点方向。     

西部自然保护区社区贫困及原因探讨

发展自然保护区社区经济,已成为我国自然保护事业可持续发展的必然选择。本文从经济贫困、人文贫困和知识贫困3个层面分析了西部自然保护区周边社区的贫困状态,并从社会结构和社会政策两方面论述了导致贫困的深层原因,以期对我国自然保护事业的可持续发展提供借鉴及参考。     

Asset‐based poverty transition and persistence in rural China

This article tests empirically for transition and persistence of poverty in rural China based on the theory of asset‐based poverty traps. It proposes an analytical framework mitigating the problem of endogenous switching between accumulation regimes and disentangling the true state‐dependence of poverty. Specifically, a dynamic asset threshold separating households into downward and upward mobility regimes is identified after taking households’ unobserved characteristics and observed regime‐differentiated accumulation strategies into account. The static analysis identifies causality running from settling into a downward mobility regime to the probability of poverty measured by consumption. Furthermore, allowing for endogenous initial poverty status, the dynamic analysis finds strong true state‐dependence in poverty. Households with the same characteristics are nearly twice as likely to be poor as if they had not previously switched to the accumulation regime. Assets below the dynamic threshold serve as a conduit through which poverty propagates itself. Factors that help to break this vicious circle are identified.     

推进灌溉管理体制改革 促进农民增收

我国现有1.2亿hm2的耕地,其中可灌溉耕地面积为5600万hm2,可灌溉耕地生产的粮食和经济作物,分别占全部总产量的75%和90%,农业灌溉的发展对于较高粮食综合生产能力和增加农民收入具有积极的作用。但我国的灌溉用水管理体制存在着产权模糊,政府管理成本高,投资渠道单一,价格形成机制不顺,浪费严重等缺陷,针对于此,提出了加快灌溉行政管理体制改革,发展灌溉领域的公私合作,完善水价形成和水费征管机制,大力发展农民用水协会等建议。     

西北农村脱贫与生态环境建设

分析了西北农村贫困的主要特征和生态环境恶化是贫困的根本原因，植树种草改变生态环境走可持续发展之路是西北农村脱贫的关键；提出了西北农村进行生态建设的措施；指出提高贫困地区人口素质，改变人力资源质量将是西北农村在新时期扶贫和进行生态建设的核心；提出了用新的机制吸引西北农牧民参与生态建设，改善生活条件。     

China’s poverty alleviation over the last 40 years: successes and challenges

Over the past 40 years, China has made significant progress towards its poverty alleviation goals. The rural population under the current poverty line has decreased by 739.9 million. China has contributed to more than 70 per cent of world poverty reduction. To better promote the new anti‐poverty strategy and to serve as a reference for poverty alleviation in other developing countries, this paper summarises the main experiences of China’s poverty alleviation over the past 40 years and then discusses the challenges associated with implementing the targeted poverty alleviation policy in the new era. China’s experience with poverty alleviation includes development‐oriented poverty alleviation, improving self‐development capabilities of the poor population, encouraging multiple subjects to participate in poverty alleviation and focusing on innovation and ways to improve poverty alleviation. Although China’s poverty alleviation initiatives have achieved significant successes, there are still several challenges that should be of concern in the coming years, such as the diminishing marginal effect of financial inputs on poverty alleviation, the resulting negative incentives for the poor to improve their internal motivations and the insufficient participation of markets and social forces in poverty alleviation. Given these challenges, this paper provides suggestions for anti‐poverty policies beyond 2020.     

Public investment and regional inequality in rural China

This paper develops a method for decomposing the contributions of various types of public investment to regional inequality and applies the method to rural China. Public investments are found to have contributed to production growth in both the agricultural and rural non‐agricultural sectors, but their contributions to regional inequality have differed by type of investment and the region in which they are made. All types of investment in the least‐developed western region reduce regional inequality, whereas additional investments in the coastal and central regions worsen regional inequality. Investments in rural education and agricultural R&D in the western region have the largest and most favorable impacts on reducing regional inequality.     

林业重点工程与消除贫困问题研究进展

2004年以来,在亚洲开发银行和财政部的资助下,国家林业局经济发展研究中心启动了"林业重点工程与消除贫困问题研究"项目。项目采用定量分析为主的研究思路,取得一些重要研究进展。介绍了项目的研究背景、研究进展、研究结论和政策建议。     

Nonfarm diversification,poverty, economic mobility,and income inequality: a case study in village India

This article assembles data at the all‐India level and for the village of Palanpur, Uttar Pradesh, to document the growing importance, and influence, of the nonfarm sector in the rural economy between the early 1980s and late 2000s. The suggestion from the combined National Sample Survey and Palanpur data is of a slow process of nonfarm diversification, whose distributional incidence, on the margin, is increasingly pro‐poor. The village‐level analysis documents that the nonfarm sector is not only increasing incomes and reducing poverty, but appears as well to be breaking down long‐standing barriers to mobility among the poorest segments of rural society. Efforts by the government of India to accelerate the process of diversification could thus yield significant returns in terms of declining poverty and increased income mobility. The evidence from Palanpur also shows, however, that at the village‐level a significant increase in income inequality has accompanied diversification away from the farm. A growing literature argues that such a rise in inequality could affect the fabric of village society, the way in which village institutions function and evolve, and the scope for collective action at the village level. Failure to keep such inequalities in check could thus undermine the pro‐poor impacts from the process of structural transformation currently underway in rural India.     

农户生计资本禀赋对不同模式农地整治增收脱贫的影响——以湖北恩施和贵州毕节为例

研究目的:探索农户生计资本禀赋对不同模式农地整治增收脱贫的影响。研究方法:有序Logistic模型。研究结果:农户生计资本禀赋对两种模式农地整治的增收脱贫均有显著影响,影响显著的生计资本指标对PPP模式农地整治增收脱贫的边际效应高于政府主导模式。研究结论:政府应该引导龙头企业等社会资本积极参与农地整治扶贫,以提高PPP模式农地整治扶贫项目的比例;加强农地整治扶贫与其他精准扶贫手段相结合,以促进农地整治区农户全部脱贫。     

中国西部地区生态贫困问题与生态重建

“生态贫困”是由于环境先天脆弱和资源的不合理利用、环境污染、破坏性的工程建设等人类活动引致生态环境恶化,最终导致的贫困;分析了西部先天脆弱环境对西部生态贫困区域的形成、分布、人类生存和经济文化发展等方面的影响;总结出三大生态贫困地区环境退化的主要原因、脆弱的环境因素,其成因机制包括生态环境的脆弱、人类生存环境恶劣、自然禀赋较差;提出了西北黄土地区实施植被的生态恢复;西南石山地区适宜配合生态经济林的植被恢复、合理利用水土资源以及加快城市化步伐;青藏高寒区重点优化资源开发模式、控制人口增长和强化生态文化意识等生态恢复与重建的建议。     

Implications of the global growth slowdown for rural poverty

Over the past 25 years, higher growth in developing countries has contributed to a dramatic fall in global poverty, although poverty rates in rural areas remain higher than in urban areas. Unfortunately, projected growth rates have fallen in recent years; this article examines the impact of this slowdown on the poor, particularly the rural poor. It first uses a global model to assess the impacts of lower productivity on key price and income variables. It then uses microsimulation models for almost 300,000 households to assess the impacts on their real incomes. Although poverty rates overall are projected to fall substantially, the poorest countries see the greatest slowdown in poverty reduction, with over 5% of their population projected to remain below the poverty line. In addition, poverty rates will remain alarmingly high in many countries. Overall, 38 million fewer people will leave extreme poverty compared to earlier projections. Farm households are at particular risk in middle‐income countries, with over 1.5% more of the farming population remaining trapped in poverty than previously estimated. By 2030, average extreme poverty in rural areas is projected at about 7.5%, rather than 7.1% under the earlier growth projections. Clearly, a strong focus on policies for poverty reduction will be vital for eliminating poverty by 2030.