Cognitive Biases and Strategic Decision Processes: An Integrative Perspective

Previous studies have not adequately addressed the role of cognitive biases in strategic decision processes. In this article we suggest that cognitive biases are systematically associated with strategic decision processes. Different decision processes tend to accentuate particular types of cognitive bias. We develop an integrative framework to explore the presence of four basic types of cognitive bias under five different modes of decision making. The cognitive biases include prior hypotheses and focusing on limited targets, exposure to limited alternatives, insensitivity to outcome probabilities and illusion of manageability. The five modes of strategic decision making are rational, avoidance, logical incrementalist, political and garbage can. We suggest a number of key propositions to facilitate empirical testing of the various contingent relationships implicit in the framework. Lastly, we discuss the implications of this framework for research and managerial practice.     

我国农民消费决策的理论研究及实证检验

农民消费是影响我国和谐社会建设和经济持续快速发展的重要问题.本文通过理论分析和推导,建立了一个能够较为全面反映农民消费决策的主观性、短视性、过度敏感性以及消费惯性等特征的理论模型,并对这一模型进行实证检验.检验结果表明:农民消费行为受到消费习惯、收入水平、不确定性和制度等多种因素的显著影响,是这些因素共同作用的结果.     

Learning and Innovation in International Strategic Alliances: An Empirical Test of the Role of Trust and Tacitness

Drawing on knowledge-based, organizational learning, and social capital perspectives, we propose and test an integrated framework in which knowledge tacitness and trust act as mediating mechanisms in the relationship between partner characteristics and alliance outcomes. We distinguish between learning and innovation outcomes and suggest that while innovation may result from alliance learning, it can also be created by combining separate knowledge bases without learning from each other. We contend that tacitness and trust play differing roles in the pursuit of learning and innovation and test this proposition on a sample of 120 international strategic alliances.     

Admissibility Considerations in the Finite State Compound and Empirical Bayes Decision Problems*

In the compound decision problem the same decision problem. called the component decision problem, occurs repeatedly. Data from all repetitions are used to reach decisions concerning the parameter values in each component; such rules are called compound decision rules. The compound risk is the average risk across all component decisions. In the analogous empirical Bayes problem the parameters are taken to be independent and identically distributed with unknown distribution. This paper explores the relationship between compound risk admissibility and component risk admissibility in these problems. The definitions are general and the results are fairly obvious and proved for the finite parameter set component only.     

Board Characteristics and Involvement in Strategic Decision Making: Evidence from Swiss Companies*

abstract Boards of directors have a number of roles. The board's monitoring function has been the subject of much work. Less examined is the role that the board has in setting company strategy. This paper uses agency and network perspectives in developing and testing the relationship between board characteristics and involvement in strategic decision making. Using primary and secondary data, our results suggest that the level of board involvement in strategic decision making is related to a number of governance variables. We demonstrate that involvement is generally lower where boards are highly interlocked. We also show that certain types of board interlocks – namely horizontal (same industry) and those involving direct links with the banking sector – are particularly associated with this negative effect. There is weaker evidence that board strategic involvement is lower where the roles of company chief executive and chair are combined. We find no evidence that factors such as board size, or the percentage of outside directors per se are related to board involvement in strategic decision making. In doing so, this paper adds to the growing literature synthesizing the structural features and processes of boards.     

An Empirical Test of Pricing Kernel Monotonicity

A large class of asset pricing models predicts that securities which have high payoffs when market returns are low tend to be more valuable than those with high payoffs when market returns are high. More generally, we expect the projection of the stochastic discount factor on the market portfolio—that is, the discounted pricing kernel evaluated at the market portfolio—to be a monotonically decreasing function of the market portfolio. Numerous recent empirical studies appear to contradict this prediction. The non‐monotonicity of empirical pricing kernel estimates has become known as the pricing kernel puzzle. In this paper we propose and apply a formal statistical test of pricing kernel monotonicity. We apply the test using 17 years of data from the market for European put and call options written on the S&P 500 index. Statistically significant violations of pricing kernel monotonicity occur in a substantial proportion of months, suggesting that observed non‐monotonicities are unlikely to be the product of statistical noise. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Strategic Use of Corporate Social Responsibility

Recent theories of the strategic use of corporate social responsibility (CSR) emphasize the role of information asymmetry and how CSR is likely to be incorporated into a firm's product differentiation strategy. A key empirical implication of these theories is that firms selling experience or credence goods are more likely to be socially responsible than firms selling search goods. Using firm-level data, we report evidence that is consistent with this hypothesis.     

我国刺激消费政策的实证检验

本文对消费和储蓄关系的实证检验证明二者并不存在长期稳定的关系，分流储蓄也不一定能刺激消费，并合理解释了该结论。在此基础上实证检验了我国刺激消费政策的有效性：提高职工平均工资和扩大政府投资都有助于消费的增加，而前者对消费的扩张效果更为显著。因此，刺激消费的切入点应是努力提高广大居民的收入水平，而不是抑制和分流居民储蓄。     

组织记忆与企业家战略领导能力关系的实证研究

企业家战略领导能力是带领企业持续健康发展的重要因素之一,组织记忆是战略领导能力构建的重要源泉。文献梳理建立了组织记忆与企业家战略领导能力的理论模型与假设,实证研究表明:组织记忆对企业家战略领导能力有显著正向影响;组织记忆内容对提升企业家战略决策能力和战略控制能力的影响强于组织记忆管理水平,而企业家战略思维能力和战略实施能力的提升则更多受到组织记忆管理水平的影响。     

The Influence of Decision,Environmental and Firm Characteristics on the Rationality of Strategic Decision‐Making*

abstract This paper develops an integrated model of strategic decision‐making rationality. The model is informed by three perspectives that respectively identify decision, environmental and firm characteristics as influences on the rationality of decision processes. The results of a study in Egypt indicate that the rationality of strategic decision‐making processes is shaped by variables identified by all three perspectives, and that such decision processes cannot adequately be modelled in terms of a single perspective only. However, the study also suggests that the three perspectives do not contribute in equal measure to explaining strategic decision making, and that the national setting is relevant for the extent to which strategic decision‐makers take account of environmental characteristics. The location of the investigation in Egypt highlights some deviations from previous research that could be attributed to nation‐specific factors, both cultural and institutional.     

战略型领导影响企业双元创新的实证分析

本研究重点探讨企业战略型领导与双元创新能力的关系.作为企业创新战略的决策者和创新资源的分配者,战略型领导是影响企业创新能力的重要前因,然而对于战略型领导究竟如何影响企业创新的现有研究还缺乏令人信服的证据.本文旨在探讨中国企业战略型领导影响双元创新能力的作用效果从而弥补这一不足.通过对我国291家民营服务企业的调查,结果显示理念塑造和制度规范兼容以及制度规范与人情关怀能力兼容的战略型领导能积极地促进组织双元创新能力的提高,而双元创新能力与创新绩效显著正相关.     

Project Management Knowledge and Effects on Construction Project Outcomes: An Empirical Study

This study examines the relationships among the PMBOK® Guide, project performance, customer satisfaction, and project success by assessing the efficacy of management techniques, tools, and skills for implementing infrastructure and building construction. Experienced interviewees from private engineering firms and public agencies were asked to complete a questionnaire, and the responses were analyzed by means of a structural equation model. The analytical results indicate the appropriateness of prioritizing the practice of the PMBOK® Guide in the construction industry. This study contributes to the literature by providing insight into interactions among the PMBOK® Guide and construction project outcomes in engineering practices. Particularly, the “bidder's conference” and “procurement negotiations” are the priority techniques to minimize bidding and legal procurement problems. Moreover, the study recommends the use of “stakeholder analysis,” “communication requirements analysis,” and the “communication methods” to perform effective communication management. Although the conclusions are based on the sample collected in Taiwan, the research findings can be used by project managers and educators to tailor the PMBOK® Guide to their unique needs and to design effective training programs for construction specialists.     

Ceo Locus of Control and Small Firm Performance: an Integrative Framework and Empirical Test*

Previous research on the impact of chief executive officer (CEO) locus of control is mainly based on simple and partial mappings of bivariate associations between CEO locus of control and organizational outcomes. In addition, distinct substreams have emerged in which intricately related phenomena are studied separately. to overcome this fragmentation and polarization, we provide and empirically test an integrative framework based on previously tested hypotheses on the impact of CEO locus of control. Our approach differs from prior research in two ways. First, it simultaneously takes account of strategic choice and firm performance in order to assess the extent to which strategy mediates the relationship between CEO locus of control and organizational performance. Second, we consider the CEO to be both a formulator and implementor of organizational strategies. Besides the observation that CEO locus of control seems to matter a lot in terms of explaining organizational performance in the present sample, our results demonstrate that an integrative approach increases our insight into the impact of CEO locus of control by revealing why some CEOs achieve higher organizational performance than others.     

中国股票市场有效性实证检验

本文以上证综指和深证成指的变化行为为研究对象，用单位根、方程比（VR）和序列二阶相关性检验方法（BDS）对其是否服从随机游走过程进行检验，从而判断中国股票市场弱式有效性是否成立。结果发现：虽然两指数行为服从单位根过程，且上证综指和深证成指序列在同方差情形上基本能够满足序列一阶不相关，但异方差情形下却是序列一阶相关，而BDS检验说明差异方差情形普遍存在。结论：中国股票市场弱式有效性并不成立。     

An Empirical Test of the Institutionalist View on Income Inequality

This paper analyzes the relationship between income inequality and economic growth within the United States using state level data. It describes income inequality in the U.S. since 1960, then employs a two‐step causal model to test the institutionalist contention that income inequality leads to socio‐political instability, which has a negative impact on economic progress. The empirical results offer support for the institutionalist view.     

Contracts and Specific Investment: An Empirical Test of Transaction Cost Theory

Empirical work has failed to keep pace with recent advances in transaction cost theory and the theory of contract. The first econometric analysis of its kind is reported by using a new data set of small subcuntractors making specific inputs for customers in the engineering industry. The use of formal contracts is found to be strongly associated with specific investment and other variables measuring technological complexity and vulnerability to potential opportunism by customers. Furthermore, despite typically long-term relationships, over half of subcontractors avoid making efficient, specific investments. Overall, we find strong support for the transaction cost theory of contracts.     

An Atemporal Microeconomic Theory and an Empirical Test of Price-Induced Technical Progress

An exhaustive comparative statics analysis of a general price taking cost-minimizing model of the firm operating under the influence of price-induced technical progress is carried out from a dual vista. The resulting refutable implications are observable and thus amenable to empirical verification, and take on the form of a symmetric and negative semidefinite matrix. Using data from individual cotton gins in California’s San Joaquin Valley, we empirically test the complete set of implications of the price-induced technical progress theory using both classical and Bayesian statistical procedures. We find that the data are fully consistent with the atemporal, cost-minimizing, price-induced microeconomic theory of technical progress.     

中国石油战略储备率和储备量的多阶段决策

为了稳定石油供给、平抑市场价格、应对突发事件,一般需要建立SPR,以增强国民经济抗风险能力,减少损失。通过建立石油储备动态模型,决定国家的石油储备率水平,进而计算出石油储备量,模型运用冯.诺依曼和奥.摩根斯坦提出的对不确定问题的决策行为选择的期望效用理论的原理,分析了我国进行石油储备的合理性,并在合理的假设前提下加入动态因素,进一步建立模型,得出中国石油战略的储备率和储备量水平,为我国进行SPR提供参考。     

Management 'Intuition': An Interpretative Account of Structure and Content of Decision Schemas Using Cognitive Maps

In this paper, the structure and content of executive perceptions are considered using cognitive mapping to isolate 'intuitive' elements within their individual decision schemas. An inductive approach is used to develop three propositions drawn from the literature. These are explored using the results of interviews with senior executives of two UK retail organizations. Three of the maps represent different levels of seniority and roles and are used to explore potential differences within the organization. Similarities and differences between organizations are examined with reference to an additional map of an individual in a second organization.^[1] Propositions are interpreted and developed with reference to the maps and textual extracts from the interviews, to provide additional insight into the concept of intuition prior to larger-scale studies. The study highlights the need to explore differences in schemas both within and between different industry sectors. It emphasizes three important aspects of intuition as a way in which individuals 'cut through' a decision situation to make an 'unexplained' relationship between input and cognition without really thinking in-depth. First, they appear to trade-off depth for breadth of information. Second, they use personal experiences, surrogate indicators, and typologies to rationalize their decisions. Finally, the study shows there are important overlaps and differences in the content of decision schemas that represent ground for agreement and disagreement and as a basis for negotiating group decisions. These insights are used to redevelop and extend the propositions by way of conclusion.     

中国封闭式基金折价的联动性检验

本文利用Johanson协整检验证实我国封闭式基金折价存在联动性，状态空间模型分析表明基金折价波动受到某种共同因素的驱动，这在某种程度上支持投资者情绪假说。该结论对我国基金产业的发展具有一定的启示作用。