Optimality in an OLG model with nonsmooth preferences

It is a well-known observation that, in the overlapping generations (OLG) model with the complete market, we can judge optimality of an equilibrium allocation by examining the associated equilibrium price. Motivated by recent development in decision theory under ambiguity, this study reexamines the above observation in a stochastic OLG model with convex but not necessarily smooth preferences. It is shown that optimality of an equilibrium allocation depends on the set of possible supporting prices, not necessarily on the associated equilibrium price itself. Therefore, observations of an equilibrium price do not necessarily tell us precise information on optimality of the equilibrium allocation.     

Collateral or utility penalties?

In a two-period economy with incomplete markets and possibility of default we consider the two classical ways of enforcing the honoring of financial commitments: by using utility penalties and by using collateral requirements that borrowers have to fulfill. First, we prove that any equilibrium in an economy with collateral requirements is also an equilibrium in a non-collateralized economy where each agent is penalized in their utility if his or her delivery rate is lower than the payment rate of the financial market. Second, we prove the converse: any equilibrium in an economy with utility penalties is also an equilibrium in a collateralized economy. For this to be true, the payoff function and initial endowments of the agents must be modified in a quite natural way. Finally, we prove that the equilibrium in the economy with collateral requirements attains the same welfare as in the new economy with utility penalties.     

Mining improbable postulates and the theory of diverting toys(Advances in General Equilibrium Theory) Donald A. Walker Edward Elgar, 1997, 165 pp.

Walker'sAdvances in General Equilibrium Theory summarizes his position on the usefulness and appropriateness of much of modern general equilibrium modeling. He argues that much of modern general equilibrium modeling does not have the objective of explaining the real economy. His comments concerning general equilibrium theory are easily seen to be related to his study of Walras. In his text, Walker is critical of the general equilibrium theorizing of a number of well-known economists. He spends the majority of the book tearing down general equilibrium theory and models as they are presented in literature. He concludes his book by summarizing his opinion about how realistic models of the economy should be structured.     

A nash equilibrium model of campaign spending

Conclusion This paper has presented a Nash equilibrium model of campaign spending. The equilibrium is always stable and it possesses sensible comparative static properties. Spending in equilibrium depends on the scale parameter of the vote-share production function and on the intensities of preference for marginal vote share by the two candidates. Thus, campaigns which turn into spending wars are characterized by large values of both candidates' intensities of preference for vote share.     

Endogenous Role in Mixed Markets: A Two-Production-Period Model

In this paper, I investigate endogenous roles in a mixed duopoly, where private and state-owned public turns compete, by allowing two production periods. I find that many equilibria exist, including the Coumot-type equilibrium and one Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the public firm becomes the follower. However, another Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the public firm becomes the leader does not exist. If small inventory costs are introduced, the unique equilibrium outcome becomes the Stackelberg type where the public firm is the follower.     

基于流动性风险的行为资产定价模型研究

从行为金融的研究视角，本研究建立了一种简洁的流动性风险均衡模型。本文将流动性因素纳入股票横截面收益的关键影响因素，构建了基于流动性风险调整的行为资产定价模型，利用欧拉方程确定了模型均衡价格。在一般均衡框架下。本文揭示了买卖差价、交易频率和市场效率等因素以流动性偏好形式对资产价格的影响机理。在连续双向拍卖交易机制下，本文利用仿真检验了均衡价格的形成过程．结果能够解释股票溢价等金融异象。     

The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in the Netherlands

The rise in unemployment in the 1970s and its subsequent persistence have challenged the conventional wisdom embodied in the standard Phillips curve, namely that equilibrium unemployment is fairly constant over time. This paper attempts to explain the apparent non-constancy of equilibrium unemployment by developing and estimating a structural model in which equilibrium unemployment is endogenous and results from the interactions of wage bargaining and the price and employment determination of firms. We find that the three major determinants of equilibrium unemployment are tax rates, the replacement rate and the real interest rate. The rise in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s was mainly due to a rise in the first two factors. That equilibrium unemployment remained high when tax rates and the replacement rate were reduced in the 1980s and early 1990s is attributed to the rise in real interest rates during this period.     

The Logit Equilibrium: A Perspective on Intuitive Behavioral Anomalies

This paper considers a class of models in which rank-based payoffs are sensitive to “noise” in decision making. Examples include auctions, price competition, coordination, and location games. Observed laboratory behavior in these games is often responsive to the asymmetric costs associated with deviations from the Nash equilibrium. These payoff-asymmetry effects are incorporated in an approach that introduces noisy behavior via a logit probabilistic choice function. In the resulting logit equilibrium, behavior is characterized by a probability distribution that satisfies a “rational expectations” consistency condition: The beliefs that determine players' expected payoffs match the decision distributions that arise from applying the logit rule to those expected payoffs. We prove existence of a unique, symmetric logit equilibrium and derive comparative statics results. The paper provides a unified perspective on many recent laboratory studies of games in which Nash equilibrium predictions are inconsistent with both intuition and experimental evidence.     

考得好不如报得好么？——高考志愿填报博弈研究

本文把考后知分志愿填报的过程看作是考生博弈过程，分析了考生的均衡策略。均衡策略依赖学校的热门程度、学校的招生名额和考生被学校录取时的效用。除了分数最高的考生，其他考生间的策略是互相依赖的，这个博弈有可能出现多重均衡，并且均衡结果也可能是无效率的。本文的分析表明，在填报志愿时，考得好有时不如报得好。     

Output price fluctuations,short-run profits and long-run industry size with input market equilibrium effects

Conclusions In this paper, input market equilibrium effects are incorporated into an analysis of output price fluctuations. In particular, it is shown that an increase (decrease) in output price may not necessarily lead to an increase (decrease) in the shortrun profit of a firm operating in a competitive product market. The firm's profit may not necessarily be convex in output price. Hence,ex-post flexibility in production does not guarantee the preference for price instability by risk-neutral firms. Finally, in longrun equilibrium, a mean-preserving spread in output price may increase or reduce the equilibrium number of firms.     

The concept of equilibrium: A key theoretical element in Keynes' revolution

This paper presents Keynes' concept of equilibrium, which was one key theoretical element that constituted the theoretical core of the General Theory and was critical in his attack on the classical model. Keynes' concept of equilibrium differed in structure, content, and purpose from that of the neoclassical orthodoxy. There were four unique features of Keynes' equilibrium and these features all reflect his overriding focus on involuntary unemployment. First, Keynes' equilibrium reflected a purposive function that differed in its maximand and normative content from his predecessors. Second, Keynes' equilibrium reflected the fact that the composition of national income determined the level of aggregate demand, which in turn determined of the equilibrium level of national income and employment. Third, his notion of equilibrium was based on use of the ex ante-ex post analysis. Finally, Keynes' equilibrium presented an alternative view of market-clearing.     

寡头竞争模型的拓展研究

文章在常用的寡头竞争模型中引入时间差带来的影响参数,从而形成了拓展的寡头竞争模型,通过计算分析,分别得到该模型下的均衡产量或均衡价格;同时,详细研究时间差带来的价格和成本变化对模型均衡结果特征及两个模型对比关系的影响,形成汇总表;最后,给出一个简单的案例进行实证研究以解释其应用意义.     

Comparing the welfare effects of income and excise taxes in the presence of the other taxation paradox

This paper implements numerically a general equilibrium model in which all private producers are price makers and the government utilizes tax revenues to provide a public good. After deriving the partial equilibrium condition for an excise tax to increase price by more than the tax (for a monopoly firm), numerical examples are given, demonstrating this phenomenon for both partial and general equilibrium. In the general equilibrium context, optimal excise taxation and optimal flat-rate income taxation are compared. In the excise tax regime, prices increase by more than the taxes. In the income tax regime, prices actually decline relative to the no-tax regime. In all of the examples given, flat-rate income taxation is superior to excise taxation in terms of welfare. The author has benefitted from exceptionally helpful comments received from J. Ronnie Davis, John D. Wilson, Ralph W. Pfouts, and Amy Crews. He has also benefitted from conversations with Franz Gehrels, David E. Wildasin, Herbert J. Kiesling, and Harold York. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Indeterminacy and Pollution Haven Hypothesis in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper develops a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which production activities are accompanied by pollution emissions that have a negative effect on welfare. It is shown that the dynamic equilibrium may display indeterminacy (i.e., continuum of dynamic equilibrium paths converging to a common steady state), depending on (i) the relationship between capital intensity and pollution intensity, (ii) the property of households’ discount rate as a function of total pollution, and (iii) the pollution-consumption relationship in instantaneous utility. In addition, the effect of environmental policy on the economy’s comparative advantage and its relation to indeterminacy are examined.     

Tribute to Marcus Berliant: A pivotal matchmaker of general equilibrium and spatial economics

We review fundamental contributions by Marcus Berliant, with a view to a way forward. We focus on two themes to which he has contributed significantly: general equilibrium theory with land and location and general equilibrium analysis of spatial agglomeration.     

Urbanization,inequality and property prices: Equilibrium pricing and transaction in the Chinese housing market

The particularly overheated Chinese housing market, with its soaring property prices, has attracted a large amount of research. We point out three of its striking empirical features, which current literature leaves unexplored: co-existence of steady growth of real transaction price and excess supply, accelerations in price-to-income ratio, and significantly strong positive correlation between real transaction prices and income inequality. A search-equilibrium model is built to explain these facts. Heterogeneous buyers and homogeneous sellers randomly search for partners to trade in a frictional property market. The search equilibrium of the property market is either a high-price-and-low-transaction elitist matching equilibrium, or a low-price-and-high-transaction pooled matching equilibrium. The terms of trade determine which equilibrium arises. Empirical observations argue for the development of China's property market through evolution from a pooled matching equilibrium to an elitist matching equilibrium. We set out to show that the market equilibrium is always inefficient, due to crowding out externalities and market incompleteness. Policy experiments support redistributive tax, as a means to improve social welfare.     

Exchange Rates and Prices under Processing Trade: A Macroeconomic Analysis

In an economy dominated by labor-intensive processing trade, such as China, real exchange rate appreciation can possibly increase rather than decrease net exports. As the import content of processed exports (a proxy for dependence on processing trade) increases in its continuum, the stable equilibrium for the exchange rate and price level eventually yields to a saddle-point equilibrium. Unless the initial inflation (or deflation) rate is uniquely moderate at a given exchange rate, either the depreciation-inflation spiral or the appreciation-deflation spiral can dominate. Monetary and fiscal policies can help a processing-trade dependent country in structural transition from excessive engagement in processing trade (the saddle-point equilibrium) to a more sustainable and balanced trade structure.     

Adverse Selection in Private Annuity Markets and the Role of Mandatory Social Annuitization

We study the effects on the macroeconomic equilibrium, the wealth distribution, and welfare of adverse selection in private annuity markets in a closed economy inhabited by overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents who are distinguished by their health status. If an agent’s health type is private information there will be a pooling equilibrium in the private annuity market. We also study the implications for the macro-economy and welfare of a social security system with mandatory contributions that are constant across health types. These social annuities are immune to adverse selection and therefore offer a higher rate of return than private annuities do. However, they have a negative effect on the steady-state capital intensity and welfare. The positive effect of a fair pooled rate of return on a fixed part of savings and a higher return on capital in equilibrium is outweighed by the negative consequences of increased adverse selection in the private annuity market and a lower wage rate.     

Negative Expected Value Suits in a Signaling Model

We extend the 1986 signaling model of Reinganum and Wilde by allowing for the possibility of negative expected value (NEV) suits. If filing costs are zero, the equilibrium consistent with the D1 refinement implies that settlement offers face a rejection rate of 100%. If filing costs are positive, an equilibrium with settlement can be restored. In this equilibrium plaintiffs with NEV suits choose not to file, but settlement rates fall below the level in the model without NEV suits. This fall in settlement rates may be substantial. In addition, by making the filing decision endogenous, we are able to derive new insights into the effects of fee shifting in the signaling model.     

Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate

This paper measures to what extent the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won is misaligned from its equilibrium value by estimating the equilibrium value using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The economic fundamentals such as the terms of trade, the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, net foreign assets and real interest rate differentials are employed to assess the equilibrium exchange rate. Considering the drastic changes in Korea's trade pattern, the trade partner weights, which are used to compute the real effective exchange rate, are not fixed, but variable. The estimation results using the quarterly data from 1982Q1 to 2009Q4 indicate that the actual exchange rate of the Korean won was substantially overvalued for the period from 2005Q1 to 2007Q4, and substantially undervalued for the period from 2008Q2 to 2009Q3. The actual exchange rate deviates from the BEER and from the long-run equilibrium (or sustainable value) of the BEER by 32% and by 24% respectively in 2008Q4.