How to Model a Child in School? A Dynamic Macrosimulation Study for Tanzania

Universal primary education is regarded as one of the key pillars of sustainable development. The positive influence of education on growth is supported by many empirical studies. However, the effects of education on labour supply, poverty reduction and welfare as well as subsistence agriculture are hardly traceable in an econometric set‐up, given the complex interactions and the long‐term nature of education. An economy‐wide dynamic simulation model provides a well‐suited toolkit to analyse the effects of increased school provision in these aspects and provides insights into the intertemporal aspects of the schooling decision of children. We develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly includes education and human capital allocation, and takes into account that the possibility of child labour increases the opportunity costs of human capital formation. In an application for Tanzania, we find that a large‐scale investment programme in education might have a negative effect on both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and high‐skilled labour supply in the short term but leads to higher GDP and welfare as well as significantly reduced child labour supply in the medium to long term.     

Education and the labour market in Botswana

Using primary data from a 1993/4 Household Income and Expenditure Survey in Botswana, this article presents empirical results on occupational attainment, its determinants, and the extent of filtering down in Botswana's labour market, given changes in labour market conditions over time. It was found that the Botswana labour market has been characterised by some ‘filtering down’ of educated workers into less skilled jobs as the supply of skilled manpower exceeded demand. Those who entered the labour market earlier, those with more education, those located in the urban areas and male workers are more likely to occupy jobs that are higher up in the hierarchy than to be in an unskilled blue-collar job. Jobs higher up in the hierarchy are also more rewarding financially. The article shows that there is occupational segregation of workers by gender in Botswana's labour market in that female workers are generally confined to a narrow range of occupations. The policy implications are that employment creation has to be pursued vigorously and the issue of gender discrimination investigated further.     

A LONG‐RUN VIEW OF THE UNIVERSITY GENDER GAP IN AUSTRALIA*

Australian universities were first established in the 1850s, well before the introduction of compulsory schooling. From the middle of the twentieth century, the introduction of mass secondary school education and the expansion of the number of universities widened student access to universities. Subjects offered in higher education increased in scope and labour market discrimination diminished. These factors, together with supply‐side changes, meant that women were more easily able to shift into investing in skills. By 1987, Australian women were more likely than men to be enrolled at a university. These aggregate figures, however, disguise considerable heterogeneity across fields of study.     

A Model of Public Education and Income Inequality with a Subsistence Constraint

This paper constructs a model in which incomes do not necessarily converge under a public education system. School attendance creates an opportunity cost of foregone income that poorer agents might need. These poorer agents, unlike high-income agents, allocate less time to schooling and so are less able to increase their human capital. However, some agents in a poverty trap might actually have higher income, at least temporarily, than do agents who do not fall into this trap. The model also shows why better public education systems can lead to more income inequality and why a gradual allocation of resources to public education may prove more beneficial than a sudden, large shift of resources.     

Women's education and fertility in China

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, this paper exploits the Compulsory Education Law of China implemented in the 1980s to empirically examine the causal impact of women's education on fertility in rural China by difference-in-differences methods. The results show that an additional year of schooling lowered the number of children a woman would have by approximately 0.09 children, postponed the age of first childbirth by 0.7 years, and reduced the probability of having a second child or more children by 0.18 among those mothers whose first child was a girl. In addition to the income effect, these results are also partly explained by more educated women preferring quality to quantity of children, placing a greater value on leisure and no longer perceiving children as the sole focus in their lives.     

Wage Returns to Schooling in Nigeria

Abstract: In the last two decades, primary and secondary school enrollment rates have declined in Nigeria while enrollment rates in post‐secondary school have increased. This paper estimates from the General Household Survey for Nigeria the private returns to schooling associated with levels of educational attainment for wage and self‐employed workers. The estimates for both men and women are small at primary and secondary levels, 2–4 percent, but are substantial at post‐secondary education level, 10–15 percent. These schooling return estimates may account for the recent trends in enrollments. Thus, increasing public investment to encourage increased attendance in basic education is not justifiable on grounds of private efficiency, unless investments to increase school quality have higher private returns. With high private returns to post‐secondary schooling, students at this level should pay tuition, to recoup more of the public costs of schooling, which may be redistributed to poor families through scholarships.     

COVID-19-associated income loss and job loss: Evidence from Indonesia

COVID-19 pandemic has substantially altered socioeconomic conditions around the world. While numerous existing studies analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic among developed states, little is known about its effects on people’s lives and social discrepancies in emerging economies. To this end, we empirically analyze the 2020 Indonesian Labor Force Survey data, hypothesizing that COVID-19 has given idiosyncratic risks and impacts on people by gender, age, education, occupation and regions. We find that income loss and job loss are prominent among males, younger and less educated people as well as among self-employed and part-time non-agricultural workers. These tendencies are not pronounced for people enjoying high income and mobility, but tend to be evident for urban residents and those having dependents. Notably, self-employed people have the highest risk of losing income, while part-time urban workers face the highest probability of losing their jobs. The propensity score matching method also demonstrates that these losses are most evident for the regions susceptible to COVID-19. Overall, we suggest that socioeconomically disadvantaged groups require additional support to strengthen their resilience in the face of exogenous shocks, such as the one caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.     

Economic returns to schooling for China's Korean minority

This paper examines economic returns to schooling for China's Korean minority in the urban labour market using ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage least squares. The OLS estimates of the returns to schooling are similar to findings from recent studies for the Chinese urban labour market. We use parents’ education and spouse's education to instrument for education as well as exploit heteroskedasticity to aid in identification. The two-stage least squares estimates using parents’ and spouse's education are considerably higher than the OLS estimates for returns to schooling, while the estimates which exploit heteroskedasticity for identification lie between the OLS and conventional two-stage least squares estimates. The economic returns to schooling reported in this study assist in explaining why private demand for education is strong among the ethnic Koreans in China. It also provides a justification for the Korean minority's focus on educational attainment.     

FDI,Education, and Economic Growth: Quality Matters

In this paper, we revisit the results from the influential study by Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998), which argues that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) promotes the economic growth in a less developed host country only when the host country obtains a threshold level of secondary schooling. Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998) only focus on the quantity of education. We take into consideration both the quantity and the quality of education. We adjust the original schooling data in Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998) by two quality of education indices and re-estimate their model. We find that the complementarity between inward FDI and schooling still exists, but the threshold level of schooling in our study is lower than the threshold calculated in Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998). Our results support the importance of education quality and suggest that with improved quality of education, it does not take as much quantity of schooling, as established in Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998), for inward FDI to have a positive impact on economic growth in the host country.     

Rates of return to education of blacks in South Africa

The aim of this empirical study was to calculate private and social rates of return to education and to test the hypothesis that education is a major determinant of earning differentials for blacks in South Africa. Data for 23 278 working men and women were extracted from the 1985 Current Population Survey files. This comprised a sample representative of the black population in the Republic of South Africa excluding the former Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda and Ciskei territories. Lifetime earnings profiles were constructed from these data for five educational levels, namely, no schooling up to Standard 1; Standards 2 to 4; Standards 5 to 7; Standards 8 to 9; and Standard 10. Schooling was assumed to account for 60 per cent of the earnings differentials between these profiles. Imputed average household outlays on schooling were taken as the private direct cost of education. These were supplemented by estimates of per pupil spending by the various government departments responsible for black education, to calculate the social costs per year of primary and secondary schooling. Indirect costs in the form of imputed foregone earnings were included from Standard 5 (age 15) onwards. The private internal rates of return to education of males were found to be about 16 per cent at primary level and 24 per cent for secondary schooling. Corresponding social rates of return are about 6 per cent for primary and 15 per cent for secondary education. Estimates for females showed negative rates of return between no schooling and Standards 2 to 4, the private and social rates being estimated at ‐1 per cent and ‐4 per cent respectively; from Standards 2 to 4 to Standards 5 to 7, a private rate of 12 per cent and a social rate of 4 per cent are reported; and for the remaining secondary school phases private rates of about 32 per cent and social rates of about 15 per cent are estimated. The study confirms that education is a major determinant of earnings differentials and education expansion can be regarded as a powerful earnings equaliser.     

A salary bass: a study of bassists’ earnings in the Royal Swedish Opera, 1799–1980

The number of occupations which have hardly altered at all, thus not suffering from Schumpeterian ‘creative destruction’, is very restricted. However, one such profession is the contrabassist's. Classical music is still largely produced in the same way as when it was first performed. There is very little productivity change in the actual production of music from bygone times. This, too, is a phenomenon rare in society at large and in the economy in particular. In this study I test Baumol's Cost Disease with the Swedish Hovkapellet bass players as my focus. The disease occurs when salary increases in jobs that have seen no increase of labour are accepted. Have musicians such as bass players seen a stagnating salary development compared to professions in industries which have actually seen labour productivity growth? This, together with other related issues, is discussed based on longitudinal salary data for the Hovkapellet musicians and similar data from Copenhagen and Paris. All data are primary data collected from the orchestra archives. The data indeed verify the Baumol Cost Disease hypothesis. The open question discussed is whether that is an actual problem or not.     

对齐齐哈尔市发展幼儿教育的思考与建议

发展幼儿教育可以扩大就业市场,可以为提高劳动力素质奠定基础,同时可以推动幼儿师范教育的进一步发展。各级政府要抓好学前教育的普及工作;小学学前班的从教人员应纳入正常的编制管理;幼儿园的收费不应以园所属性定标准;可将部分小学改办成幼儿园,以避免教育资源的浪费。尤应充分发挥“省西部地区幼教师资中心”的作用,加强对现有非幼师专业的教师培训,使之专业化。     

Does poverty constrain migration in South Africa? Evidence,explanations and implications

There are indications that poor people may face obstacles to their rural–urban migration. This article pursues the question of whether this is the case in the South African context. It argues for the importance of longitudinal data, which are not available at present, to answer this question conclusively. Levels of education can be used as a proxy for income levels, and the article examines recently published multivariate data in this regard. However, using education as a proxy for income is problematic, because education has an independent effect on migration rates through its selection of those with the skill levels demanded by the labour market. The article develops an argument about the constraining effects of the costs of migration and the role of social networks in migration and ends by demonstrating how the costs of migration can solve a number of puzzles presented by empirical research on migration.     

国际贸易与中国农村人力资源开发

过去20～30年间,中国沿着"东亚奇迹"的轨迹再次成为全球经济的重要角色。中国经济融入世界经济同时人力资本迅速积累,国际贸易通过提高收入以及促进城市化过程带给农村人口更好的接受教育机会。然而,教育财政投入偏低以及投入结构上的不合理使得农村人口接受教育的成本相对其收入仍然偏高;教育投入在地方和中央政府之间的分担现状又加剧了地区间农村人口教育的不平衡;户口制度以及各省份间教育考试制度的割裂增加了城市务工人员子女接受高质量教育的成本。简单的政策建议包括两个方面:第一,从政策方面完善教育经费和收入来源结构,加大中央财政对于农村尤其是落后地区农村义务教育的支持,保证义务教育在全国范围落实;第二,城市中教育减低乃至减少户籍歧视,同时通过政府补助增加务工人员参加培训教育的机会。     

Naar De Meetbaarheid Van Een Rechtvaardige Verdeling

Summary The author proposes a method to arrive at a cardinal theory of utility or welfare (considered identical) by the introduction into the utility function of (1) variables, (2) parameters and (3) coefficients. Parameters characterize measured differences between individuals relevant to the problem considered; variables indicate either choices open to individuals (job, income) or exogenous circumstances (a salary scale or a tax scale). The ethical postulate introduced is the equality of each coefficient among different individuals, offered as an interpretation of the fundamental equality of men. Once the utility function has been defined and tested, justice in distribution is defined as equality of the values of that function for all individuals considered. A numerical illustration is added in which years of schooling and degree of independence are used as parameters to characterize twenty social groups and the just as distinct from the actual income distribution is calculated for the Netherlands around 1965.It affords the Board of Editors great pleasure to publish this paper by one of their members. This gives the Board the opportunity, also on behalf of the readers ofDe Economist, to congratulate Professor Tinbergen most cordially upon his 70th birthday, which he celebrated on 12th April, 1973.     

THE EFFECT OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN OLD AGE PENSION ON LABOUR SUPPLY OF THE ELDERLY

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the means tested South African Old Age Pension on labour supply amongst the elderly African subpopulation in South Africa. We find significant decreases in employment rates and labour supply. Those who remain employed beyond the pensionable age are more likely to work in jobs with flexible hours of work, and work even fewer hours than people in similar jobs who are not pension age‐eligible. Our results suggest that governments do need to consider the labour supply related incentives provided via its various welfare programmes.     

防止收入差距扩大的若干措施

我国个人收入差距偏大 ,城乡之间、地区之间、行业之间收入差距明显。为了防止收入差距扩大 ,应采取如下措施 :高度重视“三农”问题 ;积极推进西部大开发 ;打破行业垄断 ;采取积极的就业政策、教育政策和劳动力流动政策 ;完善工资分配制度 ;坚决取缔非法收入 ;加强税收调节 ;     

Why Do Recent Graduates Enter into Flexible Jobs?

Flexible jobs make up a larger share of the Dutch labour market than in almost any other Western country. Recent graduates in the Netherlands are particularly likely to take flexible jobs. In this study we examine why recent graduates enter into temporary contracts and whether flexible jobs offer a poorer match for graduates’ qualifications than permanent jobs. We find that recent graduates that enter into flexible jobs face large wage penalties, a worse job match and less training participation than graduates who take permanent jobs, even after correcting for differences in ability. When the labour market situation for a particular field of education deteriorates, more recent graduates are forced into flexible jobs, threatening their position on the labour market in the long run. Flexible work among recent graduates is unrelated to their willingness to take risks. Only for university graduates is there any indication that flexible jobs may provide a stepping stone to permanent employment.     

THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA'S TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: A CROSS‐PROVINCE ANALYSIS

This paper studies the role of human capital in China's provincial total factor productivity (TFP) growth over 1985–2004. The stochastic frontier approach is employed to measure the productivity growth of Chinese provinces. Human capital is measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, enrolment rates at various levels of schooling are used to represent human capital composition. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that human capital has significant and positive effects on the TFP growth of Chinese provinces. However, when education quality is incorporated, productivity growth appears to be significantly enhanced by quality improvements in primary education only. Regional impacts of human capital are found to differ at various levels of schooling. In the eastern region of China, productivity growth is significantly associated with secondary education. TFP growth in the central region is mainly promoted by primary and university education. Yet in the western region, primary education plays the most prominent role.     

Trade openness,FDI, and income inequality: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa

The motivation for this study stems from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN‐SDGs) and their impact by 2030. The UN highlights 17 SDGs that address pertinent local and global issues, one of which—SDG‐10—has been devoted to reducing inequality. This study investigates the nexus between trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and income inequality in sub‐Saharan Africa using panel data from 2000 to 2015 and the generalized method of moment (GMM) technique approach. The findings show that FDI and income have a negative, statistically significant relationship with income inequality, signifying that as FDI and income per capita increase, the level of income inequality decreases. However, trade openness, education, political stability, corruption, and rule of law have a positive, statistically significant relationship with inequality. This study, therefore, offers some recommendations that will help policymakers. First, develop good policies to attract more foreign investors, which will contribute to creating employment opportunities in the region. Second, create more infrastructures to provide good quality education. Third, implement a good policy to motivate local production which will contribute to creating jobs. Fourth, build a strong institution(s) to fight against corruption.