Economic development and food production–consumption balance: A growing global challenge

Rising affluence in major developing countries (principally China and India) and increasing diversion of agricultural resources for energy production (USA and Brazil) sharply increase agricultural resource demand. Food consumption and production changes during development are analyzed using resource-based cereal-equivalent measures. Diet upgrades to livestock products require fivefold increases in per capita food resource use, reflecting a consistent pattern which is only marginally affected by land base. Food consumption increases exceed production during early development, leading to imports. Consumption eventually stabilizes at high incomes, but production falls short in land-scarce countries. Pork and poultry consumption increase the most; less efficient beef and dairy production command a majority of agricultural resources.     

Food imports of developing countries

The trend of food imports of developing countries and its interpretation are discussed. The author presents an analysis across countries of changes in the food supply balances and cereal imports from the early 1960s to the late 1970s. Changes in food energy supplies have not corresponded closely with changes in domestic food production per head, and the increase in imports tends to be greater in middle income than in low income countries. The balance of payments implications are examined, and the article concludes with a consideration of the reliability of international market supplies.     

The new political economy of food and agricultural development

This paper emphasizes the benefits of an agricultural strategy of development in developing countries. It begins by analyzing the close links between food and employment in the development process. In an underdeveloped country, food production is minimal, but demand is as well because of the small population growth. After development begins, income rises and food demand outstrips production. Only at later stages of development can food production meet demand. The middle stage of development describes most developing countries, which have averaged annual growth rates of 3% per capita in 1966-80. The growth in food demand must be met through technological advance in agriculture: high-yield seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, which, for example, helped India increase cereal yields 29% between 1954-55 and 1964-65. The rate of growth in cropped areas has declined between 1961-1980, making increased yields more necessary. Growth in employment and income leads to higher food demand, which leads to higher prices and labor costs and a tendency towards capital-intensive agriculture. As the rural sector becomes wealthier, there is also more opportunity for non-agricultural rural workers, creating still more demand. In the final development stage, agricultural products can generate foreign exchange. In Asia, the priority is to ensure efficient outcomes of capital allocations, while in Africa, technology must be instituted. Public investment has been shown to be essential to rapid development in Japan, Taiwan, and the Punjab of India. The absence of this investment in Africa, partly because of an overemphasis on urban sector investment, is largely responsible for the backward state of African agriculture. Often rural areas are overtaxed, agricultural experts are lacking, and there is a growing presence of urban bureaucrats. Both experts in the donor community and farmers themselves must become more vocal in demanding investment in the agricultural sector.     

Addressing food security in Africa via multiple livelihood strategies of women farmers

Because food insecurity is primarily a problem of low household incomes and poverty, and not just inadequate food production, projects and programs for food insecure African farmers which aim at increasing production of subsistence crops may be ineffective. Instead, government should look for ways to improve returns to farmers' resources in a broader context, which may include expanded opportunities for non-farm microenterprises and agricultural labor. This has been the conventional wisdom since the writings of Amartya Sen. Still unclear, however, are the implications of his thinking for the roles of African women farmers who are traditionally the food-crop producers in Africa and are often food insecure. Immediate expansion of income-earning activities such as cash cropping and non-farm microenterprises may not be possible for women in male headed households in many African societies where cash income is seen as part of the male domain. In addition, women farmers may need a long adjustment period to diversify their income sources fully because most African countries are at the early stages of structural transformation. Different developmental interventions, both in policy and in technology, are therefore needed to address food security and economic transformations in Africa in the short and long term.     

Food aid,domestic policy and food security: Contrasting experiences from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Food aid, both for short-term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium-term food “deficits”, is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries. This study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid (India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Zambia) regarding food production, trade, markets, consumption and safety nets, as well as the policy responses to food emergencies. The widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure, is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers, and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security. However, food aid is not the only, or in many cases, the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity. In many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in-kind.     

Wheat in the world food economy: Increasing role in developing countries

Wheat is the oldest and most important of the cereal grains in world food supply. In the last two decades the role of wheat in the world food economy has increased substantially, especially in the developing world. This article describes and analyses the role of wheat and highlights and interprets changes that have occurred in the last two decades of rapid change. The authors analyse, in turn, trends in production, consumption, trade and prices with special emphasis on the developing countries.¹ Finally, the authors speculate on how these trends are likely to be effected by future events.     

Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets

This study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel production on regional agricultural and related sectors over the next decade with a specific focus on the vulnerable regions of developing nations. Using a modification of the GTAP modeling platform to account for the global interactions of regional biofuel and food markets, the analysis shows that biofuel production levels depend on the assumption about the future price of energy and the nature of the substitutability between biofuels and petroleum-based transport fuels. Low energy prices reduce the demand for biofuels and thus require greater government support to meet the desired production targets. At the other extreme, when prices are high and there is scope for substituting biofuels for petroleum-based fuels, the volume of biofuels produced will exceed the mandates. Even when biofuels are being mainly produced in developed countries, our results indicate that there are impact pathways that extend far beyond the borders of the US, Brazil and the EU. Prices of feedstock and non-feedstock commodities rise in developing countries. There is also a rise in value added from the agricultural sector—a gain that is enjoyed by the owners of land and labor, including unskilled. Hence, to the extent that agriculture is a key sector in getting growth started and addressing poverty needs, the emergence of biofuels can (in this way at least) be a positive force.     

Fish as food : Present contribution and potential

The author gives an account of the importance of fish as a source of animal protein and as an appreciated food, particularly in developing countries. Despite declining growth rates in food fish production in recent years, there is considerable potential for increasing supplies in order to maintain the role of fish. The relatively low cost of many fish-producing systems should encourage increased exploitation of fishery resources for food purposes. This will not be achieved, however, unless sustained efforts in research and development are ensured. Collaboration on an international scale and financial support from developed countries will be required.     

Government and food distribution in LDCs: The Turkish experience

Opinions differ over the extent to which governments directly intervene in the actual buying and selling of food products, and thus act as intermediaries. Although private sector intermediaries continue to be the central core of the food distribution system in developing countries, the recent trend has been toward increasing government involvement. Patterns and characteristics of food distribution systems in use differ within developing countries. In this article, these differences are related systematically to the differences in the government environment, and is specifically illustrated by the situation in Turkey. Governmental factors are analyzed to show that differing food distribution practices are the result of the prevailing environmental conditions. The author also suggests that the introduction of certain food distribution insitutions, methods and techniques in developing countries is dependent upon appropriate governmental conditions.     

The impact of food safety standards on processed food exports from developing countries

This paper examines the impact of food safety standards on processed food exports in developing countries. A panel data econometric analysis of processed food exports in developing countries was undertaken. The Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standard (SPS) is incorporated into the model to capture the impact of food safety standards. The empirical model shows that food safety standards imposed by developed countries could impede processed food exports from developing countries. This could emerge because practically, SPS is less transparent than tariffs or quotas. There is an ample room for developed countries to tweak the standards stronger than necessary to achieve optimal levels of social protection, and to twist the related testing and certification procedures to make their competing imports more competitive. In addition, limited supply-side capacity of developing countries, especially in terms of resources, manpower as well as institution, constrains the countries to overcome food safety standards. Because of the potential benefits that could emerge from imposing food safety standards such as a reduction in transaction costs and trade friction, developing countries should view SPS not just as a trade barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standard and market sophistication. Supply-side capacity in developing countries needed to be improved, especially upgrading agriculture sector. Multilateral efforts are also needed to mobilize additional financial and technical assistance to help redress constraints in developing countries in meeting the required food safety standards imposed by developed countries.     

What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.     

Cereal imports by developing countries: Trends and determinants

After reviewing recent trends of cereal imports of developing countries by region, by income group, and by commodity, the determinants of these imports are analysed by investigating both structural, long-term factors as well as temporary, short-term factors. Level of economic development and population density on arable land are found to be statistically the most significant long-run factors explaining cereal imports by developing countries, while food aid is statistically the most significant short-run factor.     

Food distribution systems: Evolution in Latin America and the Middle East

The author describes the characteristics of food distribution systems and practices in developing countries, with particular reference to Latin America and the Middle East. He also examines the characteristics of the environmental factors which have an influence on food distribution, and explores the relationship between the environmental factors and the specific characteristics of food distribution systems of developing countries. The intention is to show how structural and operational changes can be induced in the distribution systems of developing countries.     

Impact of fisheries on rural development

Fish are the most efficient converters of food for human consumption of any animal. They do not require agricultural land or compete for human food. In fact, their aquatic environment can be utilized for other purposes, eg drinking water, irrigation or hydraulic power. Fish cultivation requires between $\text{1}\text{3}$ and $\text{1}\text{30}$th of the energy needed by agriculture. Of the world's meat production, the largest share is made up of fish. However, 30% of total fish production is used for animal feed. In fact fish culture only requires two basic elements: water and light.     

Urban agriculture,poverty, and food security: Empirical evidence from a sample of developing countries

Urban agriculture may have a role to play in addressing urban food insecurity problems, which are bound to become increasingly important with the secular trend towards the urbanization of poverty and of population in developing regions. Our understanding of the importance, nature and food security implications of urban agriculture is however plagued by a lack of good quality, reliable data. While studies based on survey data do exist for several major cities, much of the evidence is still qualitative if not anecdotal. Using a recently created dataset bringing together comparable, nationally representative household survey data for 15 developing or transition countries, this paper analyzes in a comparative international perspective the importance of urban agriculture for the urban poor and food insecure. Some clear hints do come from our analysis. On the one hand, the potential for urban agriculture to play a substantial role in urban poverty and food insecurity reduction should not be overemphasised, as its share in income and overall agricultural production is often quite limited. On the other hand, though, its role should also not be too easily dismissed, particularly in much of Africa and in all those countries in which agriculture provides a substantial share of income for the urban poor, and for those groups of households to which it constitutes an important source of livelihoods. We also find fairly consistent evidence of a positive statistical association between engagement in urban agriculture and dietary adequacy indicators.     

The impacts of value chain upgrading on the export of processed food

Upgrading in global value chains (GVCs) is an important path for developing countries to move along to capture higher benefits. Several qualitative studies of GVCs have identified two main upgrading types: economic (product, process, functional, and inter-sectoral) and social upgrading. The upgrading concept is widespread in productive sectors such as processed food, which has become a key export for developing countries. However, they have confronted multiple product standards required by global buyers. This study uses a case study of Thailand’s processed food exports (TPFEs). Although Thailand is a leading exporter of processed food, the country needs to upgrade in many areas related to production to meet global product standards and requirements. If Thailand fails to comply with global product standards, it will lose its export competitiveness. This study uses a gravity model to evaluate the impact of economic and social upgrading (EUP and SUP) on TPFEs. Our results show that upgrading types are significant in TPFEs, particularly for exports to developed countries. Process upgrading has a negative impact on TPFEs because of increased production costs to comply with product standards. However, process upgrading can lead to increased producers’ and exporters’ knowledge about how to comply with international standards. Consequently, process upgrading exhibits a lagged positive effect on TPFEs.     

Investment opportunities in food production in LDCs

The potential food deficit in many developing countries creates opportunities for foreign commercial investment in food production. The factors influencing the profitability of such investment — agricultural, economic, social, political and investment factors — are examined in this article. Dr Schmid has used these five factors to identify a number of countries where the potential for profitable investment is high. He illustrates the range of good investment opportunities by describing the potential of eight countries — Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Pakistan, Thailand, Kenya, the Malagasy Republic and the Sudan.     

From `food aid' to `aid for food': into the 21st century

Food aid deserves much credit for having pioneered in the 1950/60s the transfer of large quantities of resources to the poorest nations and people inflicted with poverty and hunger. In recent years, the magnitude of this aid has drastically diminished. Fortunately, many of the programs that used to receive food aid are now funded by financial aid. The paper argues that it may have become counter-productive to plead for `food aid', because it distracts attention from the fact that many food shortages can be alleviated as well, or even better, with financial aid. It might be more effective to solicit `aid for food' and to assure an adequate allocation of overseas development assistance for the purpose, irrespective of the supply of food aid.The policies, of which food aid was a by-product and which have led to the accumulation of large food surpluses in the industrial countries and the inhibition of the efficient functioning of food markets in the developing countries, have by now become thoroughly discredited. Is it in parallel, not also high time to question the appropriateness of the public distribution of food to nations and people, short on food?     

After the famine: food aid policy and management issues in sub-Saharan Africa

The large amount of food aid that was required to meet Africa's emergency food situation resulted in the postponement of some fundamental decisions that were being taken about food aid use in sub-Saharan Africa. Now the donor community and recipient governments are again giving priority to integrating food aid with other available resources in order to meet longer-term food policy and wider development objectives. This paper looks at some of the policy and management issues which need to be addressed if the effectiveness of food aid assistance is to be improved in the current African context. Shortages of locally qualified personnel to administer project food aid have proven to be a major bottleneck in most sub-Saharan countries. Most sub-Saharan states receive food aid from a variety of sources: multilateral, bilateral and a few private-voluntary organizations. As a result, countervailing priorities are set by the donors themselves and give rise to conflicts. The recent drought and famine conditions have compounded an image problem in which food aid is narrowly identified by recipient governments as a project resource to be used primarily for nutrition interventions and for the rural sector. The image problem often limits project selection and overlooks innovative uses of food aid. Many sub-Saharan countries are starting to acquire considerable amounts of counterpart funds from program food aid. However, their use is not coherently integrated with the total aid flow. Multi-year programming has emerged as a management issue which has unnecessarily divided the food aid donor community. The fundamental issue is flexibility in programming, not multi-year programming. The major policy objective now facing the food aid donor community and recipient countries is how to lower emergency allocations while simultaneously increasing project and program aid. Most nonfood-aid donor agencies and their constituent bodies do not treat food aid as a valid economic resource, thereby undermining its effectiveness. The eventual success of food aid use in Africa may be a function of the recipient governments and other major donor and financial organizations.     

Population,food and agricultural development: A medium-term view

Trends identified in 86 developing countries over the last 15–20 years indicate that the increase in food production was less than that in domestic demand for food in as many as 53, and 34 failed even to keep up with population growth. The author presents the likely perspective for the next 10 years. His analysis focuses on accelerating the increase in food production; an equitable and efficient distribution particularly among the poorer sections of the population; increasing employment in agriculture and related sectors; and increasing the share of developing countries in expanded trade in agriculture products.