Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets

The factors that drive cross-sectional differences in expected stock returns in emerging equity markets are qualitatively similar to those that have been documented for developed markets. Emerging market stocks exhibit momentum, small stocks outperform large stocks, and value stocks outperform growth stocks. There is no evidence that high beta stocks outperform low beta stocks. A Bayesian analysis of the return premiums shows that the combined evidence of developed and emerging markets strongly favors the hypothesis that similar return factors are present in markets around the world. Finally, there exists a strong cross-sectional correlation between the return factors and share turnover.     

Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets

In this paper we use cointegration tests to examine the long-run diversification potential of 13 emerging capital markets. The Johansen [18] and Johansen and Juselius [19] cointegration procedures are applied to the U.S. and 13 emerging capital markets in three geographical regions of the world. None of the three regions examined possesses cointegrated markets. The lack of cointegration indicates that the correlation between returns from each market is independent of the investment horizon Return correlations using weekly data correspond to the long-run investment horizon correlation. Correlations among the returns from these countries are low on average and occasionally negative. The apparent independence of markets within these three emerging regions suggests that diversification across these countries is effective.     

Home Bias in Emerging Bond and Stock Markets

In this paper, we empirically examine sizes and sources of home bias in both bond and equity markets for twenty emerging countries and twenty-two developed countries over the 2001-11 sample period. The average size of home bias in both bond and stock markets is found to be much larger in emerging countries than in developed countries. Using the explanatory variables in two categories of economic development and market performance, we employ dynamic panel data regression models to analyze major sources of home bias. The main results are the following: First, market performance factors generally affect home bias more strongly than do economic development factors. Second, market factors including market return, volatility, and liquidity support various hypotheses under informational asymmetries, such as return chasing, risk aversion, and flight to quality. Third, among macroeconomic factors, it is shown that real gross domestic product growth has negative effects and country leverage has positive effects on a specific home bias, backing up the size-bias and the flight-to-quality hypotheses, respectively. Finally, and perhaps most important in this paper, the effect of bond market performance on equity home bias is found to be significantly stronger than the effect of equity market performance on bond home bias from the market interaction model estimation, suggesting that a policy design needs to begin with increasing bond market efficiency to reduce equity market home bias.     

Seasonal and Day-of-the-Week Effects in Four Emerging Stock Markets

The “January effect” and the “weekend effect” have proven to be persistent anomalies in U.S. equity markets. The objective of this paper is to examine seasonal and daily patterns in equity returns of four emerging markets: Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. These markets are gaining importance with the globalization of business; therefore, it is necessary to examine the efficiency and functioning of these capital markets. Our analysis uses daily data for the 12 years from September 1, 1976, to June 30, 1988. The results support the existence of a seasonal pattern in these markets. Returns in the month of January are higher than any other month for all markets examined except the Philippines. A robust day-of-the-week effect is also found. These markets exhibit a weekend effect of their own in the form of low Monday returns. In addition, there exists a strong “Tuesday effect,” which may be related to the + 13 hour time difference between New York and these emerging markets.     

U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets

This article examines U.S. equity flows to emerging stock marketsfrom 1978 to 1991 and draws three main conclusions. First, despitethe recent increase in U.S. equity investment in emerging stockmarkets, the U.S. portfolio remains strongly biased toward domesticequities. Second, of the fraction of the U.S. portfolio thatis allocated to foreign equity investment, the share investedin emerging stock markets is roughly proportional to the shareof the emerging stock markets in the global market capitalizationvalue. Third, the volatility of U.S. transactions in emerging-marketequities is higher than in other foreign equities. The normalizedvolatility of U.S. transactions appears to be falling over time,however, and we find no relation between the volume of U.S.transactions in foreign equity and local turnover rates or volatilityof stock returns.     

Asymmetric Price and Volatility Adjustments in Emerging Asian Stock Markets

This paper tests the hypothesis that stock returns in emerging stock markets adjust asymmetrically to past information. The evidence suggests that both the conditional mean and the conditional variance respond asymmetrically to past information. In agreement with studies dealing with developed stock markets, the conditional variance is an asymmetrical function of past innovations, rising proportionately more during market declines. More importantly, the conditional mean is also an asymmetrical function of past returns. Specifically, positive past returns are more persistent than negative past returns of an equal magnitude. This behaviour is consistent with an asymmetric partial adjustment price model where news suggesting overpricing (negative returns) are incorporated faster into current prices than news suggesting underpricing (positive returns). Furthermore, the asymmetric adjustment of prices to past information could be partially responsible for the asymmetries in the conditional variance if the degree of adjustment and the level of volatility are positively related.     

Forms of Foreign Investment Liberalization and Risk in Emerging Stock Markets

I examine the effect of different forms of foreign investment liberalization on risk in emerging equity markets, including international cross-listings and closed-end country funds, and in the domestic equity market as foreign investment restrictions are eliminated. I find that in Latin American markets volatility declines significantly with different forms of foreign investment liberalization, and in Asian markets volatility does not increase significantly. Volatility is driven by domestic factors in South America, but the transmission of volatility from the United States to Mexico increases after liberalization. The market risk exposure increases in Argentina after liberalization, in Chile with an index of American Depositary Receipts, and in Thailand with greater foreign ownership, reducing the diversification benefits of these markets.     

Volatility Spillover in Regional Emerging Stock Markets: A Structural Time-Series Approach

Volatility spillovers among the stock markets of Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are investigated using the concept of stochastic volatility and structural time-series modeling. The results reveal volatility spillovers, in which the Kuwait market plays the major role. It is also found that volatility in one market cannot be explained fully in terms of volatility in the other two markets, but that, out of the three markets, the Kuwait market seems to be the most influential. Some explanations are put forward for why this is the case.     

中外股票市场收益率相关性分析及其影响路径分解

本文通过计算相关系数,研究了过去15年中国股票市场与国际股票市场收益率的相关性,发现在金融危机爆发的年份里,中外股票市场的收益率存在负相关关系。本文在此基础上利用面板数据回归模型,研究了影响中外股票市场收益率相关性的主要因素,发现出口路径会显著增强收益率的正相关性,对经济危机起到传导作用;外商直接投资路径会显著增强收益率的负相关性,对经济危机起到缓冲作用。建议政府在制定应对金融危机的政策时,积极利用外商直接投资的缓冲作用,同时不断引导出口企业增强国际竞争力,努力扩大内需,减少经出口路径传导至我国的外部冲击。     

新兴金融市场的发展

大量新兴国家所采取的积极的债务管理措施使得本国资产负债表的波动性显著降低,节约了为数可观的债务成本。本文引用两个典型例子:巴西采取减少其与美元相关的负债的政策,使得这部分负债的规模从2002年底占净负债总额的30％下降到2004年7月的15％。墨西哥实施富有创意的全球债券债务交换的方案,以期利用全球债券收益率曲线的特性来节约债务成本。     

Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey

We examine the impact of inflation on nominal stock returns and interest rates in Turkey's emerging economy, which has a moderately high, persistent, and volatile inflation rate. Empirical evidence indicates that Turkey's inflation increased more than nominal stock returns and interest rates, implying that real returns to investors declined during our sample period. Among the different sector indexes we study, the financials sector serves as the best hedge against expected inflation, and the Fisher effect appears to hold only for this sector. We also find that public information arrival plays an important role, especially in the stock market.     

The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

This paper attempts to determine whether the fluctuations of conditional first and second moments—which are observed for many assets—are consistent with the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital asset pricing model. We test the mean-variance model under several different assumptions about the time variation of conditional second moments of returns, using weekly data from July 1974 to December 1986, that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar, Deutsche mark, sterling, and Swiss franc assets, together with the U.S. stock market. The results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time variation of risk premia.     

Downside Risk in Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric value at risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return trade-off. For emerging markets, fixed effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification.     

Fraud Risk in Emerging Markets

David L. Stulb, joint leader of Ernst ＆ Young＇s global Fraud Investigations ＆ Dispute Servicespractice, said,“Major fraud and corruption scandals attract headlines around the world, dramatically affecting corporate and market values. With the fear of fraud greatest in emerging markets, and with 20% of all companies having been victims of fraud, the consequences for those companies that continue to underestimate the risk could be severe.” at the launch of the 9th Global Fraud Survey, Fraud Risk in Emerging Markets.     

Macrofactor Conditional Volatilities, Time-Varying Risk Premia and Stock Return Behavior

An Arbitrage Pricing Model is estimated in which the risk premia vary in proportion to the conditional volatilities of the macroeconomic innovations which follow an autoregressive specification. The conditional volatilities of the macroeconomic innovations exhibit strong timevariation from month to month. For size-ranked portfolios of all the shares traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the period from March 1962 through March 1988, five macrofactors (namely, the lag of industrial production, the Canadian index of 10 leading indicators, the U.S. composite index of 12 leading indicators, the exchange rate and the residual market factor) have time-varying and priced risk premia. The small-firm effect is absent in the risk-adjusted returns, and a significant portion of the observed January seasonality is explained by the model with time-varying risk premia.