货币政策波动、银行信贷与会计稳健性

本文将货币政策、银行信贷和会计稳健性这三者的联系作为主要研究对象来研究货币政策对现如今市场经济的影响。货币政策和银行信贷间的关系很微妙,货币的涨幅或者下跌都会直接影响银行信贷间的关系。会计的稳健性和企业的成功密不可分,是企业成功的必要保障,所以要想让企业的走向更加有利,不管是国企还是非国企,都应重视会计的稳健性。本文将会计稳健性作为主要的研究对象。在本文的最后将会就保护会计文件性这一问题提出可行性措施。     

房价波动与银行信贷的关系初探

近年来,随着社会经济的快速发展和城市化建设进程的不断加快,房价与现代银行信贷间长期存在着内在的因果关系,虽然短时间内房价波动对银行信贷产生的影响不明显,但从长远的视角来看,其影响关系不可小觑。近年来,随着国内房地产行业的快速发展,在很大程度上加大了银行尤其是商业银行的金融风险,急需采取有效的措施来规避该种风险,以确保房地产行业的可持续发展和现代银行资产运行的安全可靠性。     

资产价格波动与银行信贷的相互关系研究

本文研究了我国资产价格波动和银行信贷之间的关系,发现信贷对房地产市场的冲击要比对股市的冲击大,未来我国的金融风险集中在房地产市场。信贷政策需要保持平稳的信贷投放,才能减少资产价格波动的幅度以实现金融稳定。     

吉林省宏观经济波动影响因素的长短期动态研究

根据1978—2014年的相关数据,运用SVAR模型,对影响吉林省宏观经济波动的主要因素进行实证分析,得出结论:从脉冲响应函数来看,无论短期还是长期,全社会固定资产投资和民间固定资产投资均是引起吉林省宏观经济波动的重要因素,消费和出口是次要因素,投资仍是拉动吉林省经济增长的主要驱动力。长期看,全社会固定资产投资、民间固定资产投资、出口对吉林省宏观经济波动的影响为正效应,而消费对吉林省宏观经济波动的影响由正效应转为负效应。方差分解的结果与脉冲响应函数得出的结论相一致,能够互相印证。并在实证结果的基础上提出保持投资增长的连续性,加快供给侧结构性改革步伐,扩大出口对经济的拉动作用等对策建议。     

我国银行信贷存在的问题及对策分析

银行信贷是金融策略的重要手段,对我国经济发展具有重要意义,其产生的推动作用也是不可替代的。本研究在一些国内研究理论的基础上,通过对银行信贷对经济发展影响的实证分析和其作用机制的讨论,提出了我国银行信贷目前存在的问题及相关的解决方案。     

银行信贷规模与房地产价格波动关系研究

本文选取2009-2014年月度数据,通过理论与实证分析相结合的方法探究了房地产价格的波动与银行信贷增长之间的关系。结果表明,房价与银行信贷在长期内互为因果关系,银行信贷扩张对房地产价格上涨具有明显的推动和加强作用。并且,在房价持续高速上涨时期,贷款规模对房价的影响力明显超过贷款利率。因此,在目前房价回落的背景下,信贷政策仍是调节房价回归理性和降低银行风险的重要手段之一。     

房价波动与银行信贷的关系初探

摘要：近年来,随着社会经济的快速发展和城市化建设进程的不断加快,房价与现代银行信贷间长期存在着内在的因果关系．虽然短时间内房价波动对银行信贷产生的影响不明显,但从长远的视角来看．其影响关系不可小觑。近年来,随着国内房地产行业的快速发展．在很大程度上加大了银行尤其是商业银行的金融风险,急需采取有效的措施来规避该种风险,以确保房地产行业的可持续发展和现代银行资产运行的安全可靠性。     

西藏自治区银行信贷、财政支出对经济增长影响——基于VECM模型的实证分析

文章通过建立向量误差修正模型,采用协整检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法探讨了西藏自治区银行信贷、财政支出对经济增长的影响。结果显示：长期中,西藏自治区银行信贷、财政支出对经济增长产生正向的影响,财政支出相较于银行信贷而言对经济增长的正向激励作用要更明显;短期内,西藏自治区信贷规模、财政支出的增加会提升经济增长水平,短期偏离均衡状态时,误差修正项对经济增长发挥反向修正机制,但修正速度缓慢。     

我国住房市场、银行信贷与宏观经济关联性分析

本文通过对信贷支持的住房市场的经济学分析,对我国月度房地产数据进行协整关系检验,以此建立我国住房市场系统均衡函数和VAR模型,通过线性Granger因果检验,得出我国房地产市场与银行信贷以及宏观经济间的关联性.结果表明:宏观经济环境是影响房地产市场发展的最关键因素,同时影响银行贷款态度和企业及消费者的市场预期,良好的宏观经济环境刺激信贷发放、刺激投资和消费,银行信贷加大了房地产市场的波动,增加了产业风险.     

Funding Gaps? Access To Bank Loans By High-Tech Start-Ups

This paper aims to shed new light on start-up financing of new technology-based firms (NTBFs) and the existence of credit constraints that may negatively affect their activity. For this purpose, we analyze the different sources of start-up financing used by NTBFs and investigate several characteristics that may influence the extent of recourse to bank loans. In the empirical section, we consider a sample composed of 386 Italian NTBFs that operate both in manufacturing and services. We estimate double-censored tobit and bivariate tobit models so as to highlight the determinants of (i) the financial leverage, measured by the ratio of bank debt to total capital, and (ii) the amounts of personal capital and bank loans of firms at start-up, respectively. Our findings support the view that the credit market is imperfect and there exists a financing hierarchy. In fact, only a minority of firms resorts to outside financing, and especially to bank debt. In addition, the level of financial leverage is not random; it increases with an increase of the predicted amount of firms’ total initial capital, while it decreases with variables such as the number of owners and the work experience of founders that are indicative of greater personal wealth available to finance firms’ start-up. Lastly, the size of the bank loans obtained by firms generally is small and it is quite insensitive to demand-side factors that instead determine the amount of personal and total capital, with the notable exception of scale economies in the industry of the start-up. In other words, in accordance with the argument that credit to NTBFs is rationed, the loan supply curve is highly inelastic, even though not perfectly so.     

宏观经济因素与人民币汇率浮动

采用协整检验和误差修正模型等计量经济学方法,就当前国内若干热点变动的宏观经济因素变量对汇改后人民币汇率的影响进行了实证研究,研究结果表明热点变动的中美利差水平、通货膨胀率差异水平以及外汇储备增长率与人民币升值幅度之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。长期来看,利差水平对人民币名义汇率影响程度较大,而短期内,外汇储备因素和人民币汇率自身变动的前期信息对其影响较为显著。     

Bank Performance and Credit Availability in the Bulgarian Banking Sector, 1997-2001

Abstract

The 1997 financial crisis wiped out 30% of the Bulgarian banking sector and created severe strains on corporations. With the establishment of the currency board in 1997 and the new Banking Law, which set the legal framework for proper bank supervision, major Bulgarian banks were rapidly privatized through sales to foreigners, now controlling around 80% of bank assets. Since 1997, the Bulgarian banking sector has recovered from the crisis by improving its profitability and efficiency and adopted a legal framework compatible with the European Union standards. Based on a regression analysis of bank balance sheets and income statements, this paper shows that low level of credit volume during 1997-1999 derived from banks' cautious stance towards credit making reflecting both the ongoing risks in the real sector, and the stringent new banking regulations. Large banks, however, benefited from scale economies in improving profitability in the same period.     

Bank Debt Use and Firm Size: Indian Evidence

The paper employs a sample of listed Indian manufacturing firms over the period 1995–2004 to examine the factors influencing the concentration of bank debt in total debt. The results indicate that the factors vary by firm size. Small to medium-sized firms have a high concentration of bank debt. The results support the reputation view that firms face differential debt choice as they grow larger. When evaluating bank regulations, policymakers need to consider the importance of the reputation-building service which banks provide to businesses.     

基于VAR系统的人口城市化与经济增长关系研究——以上海1978-2009年数据为例

本文基于上海市1978-2009年城市化率与实际人均生产总值的相关数据,通过建立向量自回归模型,运用脉冲响应函数法和方差分解方法对上海人口城市化与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果显示,上海经济增长对人口城市化的作用相对较强,而城市化的发展对经济增长的促进作用不明显。上海应充分利用举办世博会产生的城市经济效应有利时机,进一步促进城市化与经济增长的协调发展。     

论汇率变动对出口价格的传递效应——中国、日本、东盟、德国经验数据比较研究

文章比较分析了中国、日本、德国和东盟四个国家(地区)汇率变动对以美元计价的对美出口商品价格指数的传递效应,结果显示中国是唯一在当期存在汇率传递影响的国家,但影响显著为正。短期内德国汇率传递效应最高,中国的传递效应最低。由于中国汇率传递的滞后时间较长,中国累计汇率传递效应值高于日本。在实证结果的基础上,文章认为在短期内无法改变出口商品技术含量和竞争力的情况下,人民币保持稳步的升值步伐比汇率上下波动更有利于企业价格的提高。     

中国出口贸易对经济增长贡献率的实证研究:1952-2003年

以国家统计局发布的1952-2003年度统计数据为基础,采用Granger因果关系模型和广义差分回归的方法研究了中国出口贸易与经济增长之间的关系,结果表明:(1)中国出口贸易与GDP之间存在着十分明显的单向因果关系,出口贸易是推动中国经济增长的重要原因;(2)1952-2003年期间,中国出口贸易对经济增长贡献率约为24.1%。     

Bank risk-taking and market discipline: Evidence from CoCo bonds in Korea

We investigate whether the risk profile of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds is well-priced by testing the sensitivity of bond spreads to bank asset volatility. While equity holders (bankers) have an incentive to make riskier investments to trigger the write-off, such risk-taking behavior can be contained if CoCo bond investors punish it by demanding higher returns. We have found that investors in the Korean financial market understand the risk profile of CoCo bonds and require higher returns for the additional bank risk, which suggests the presence of market discipline with regard to CoCo bonds.     

The Design,Development and Implementation of Bank Licensing Policies and Procedures in Zambia (1980-2000)

Abstract

This study reviews the design, development and implementation of licensing policies in the years preceding the 1995-1997/98 bank failures in Zambia (1980-1994), and the licensing reforms that were followed thereafter (1995-2000). It documents important weaknesses in licensing practices that hindered regulatory effectiveness: inadequate minimum capital standards, insufficient ownership/management quality assessments, inadequate consideration of the convenience and needs of the financial sector and political interference in the licensing process. In addressing these and other weaknesses, however, the paper calls for research on prudential entry requirements to go beyond identifying desirable minimum requirements to establishing practical tools and techniques for regulators, especially for evaluating the quality of prospective bank owners and managers. It nevertheless cautions against adopting an overly cautious licensing policy, especially towards domestic banks as they provide valuable services to domestic economies.