互助联保的内生逻辑:荣成案例

目前,联合担保贷款已经成为解决农村融资难问题的途径之一。本文通过对荣成市三户企业在寻求加入互助联保体过程中三次失败经历的叙述,剖析互助联保体的内生机理,指出在自由选择情况下,一个稳定大联保体的形成是以风险收益均衡和信息对称两条主线进行逐步选择、淘汰、优化的结果,并由此导出稳定联保体的内生逻辑：产品设计诱导——区域选择——行业选择——规模对称——大联保体形成。     

Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts

This article compares the statutory ad valorem tariff rates(official rates) with the ratio of tariff revenues to importvalues (collected rates) for Jamaica, Kenya, and Pakistan. Itidentifies four general features of the tariff codes, considerswhether these features apply to all developing countries, anddiscusses four implications of these features for tariff reform.First, the collected rate for any given item in the tariff codeis only weakly related to the official rate for that item. Second,the variation of collected rates around the official rate increaseswith the level of the official rate. Third, the collected rates,on average, increase much less than the official rates. Fourth,the relation between official rates and collected rates is nonlinear,because the slope is lower at higher levels of the officialrate.     

Role of Speculative Short Sales in Price Formation: The Case of the Weekend Effect

We argue that short sellers affect prices in a significant and systematic manner. In particular, we contend that speculative short sales contribute to the weekend effect: The inability to trade over the weekend is likely to cause these short sellers to close their speculative positions on Fridays and reestablish new short positions on Mondays causing stock prices to rise on Fridays and fall on Mondays. We find evidence in support of this hypothesis based on a comparison of high short-interest stocks and low short-interest stocks, stocks with and without actively traded options, IPOs, zero short-interest stocks, and highly volatile stocks.     

国内税的关税替代效应分析

关税的作用机制在于造成了产品在国外和国内的价格差异,从而产生保护国内生产商的经济效果。如果能够区分国内和国外的生产商,实施不同的国内税政策,国内税的运用同样可以造成相应的保护效果,因此,国内税在某种程度上也可以看作是贸易政策。     

内生动力与市场机制:金融支持合村并居的庆云案例

由于缺乏承贷主体,金融支持新农村建设中的合村并居工作陷入困境。山东省庆云县引入市场机制,由亟需土地的农业产业化龙头企业贷款用于农民并居工程,然后将并居空置出的土地租赁给企业用于扩大经营规模,产生的利润归还贷款,实现了资本逐利性与社会公益的正效益对接,值得借鉴与推广。     

加入WTO后我国关税政策的演进及其经验启示

加入世界贸易组织（WTO）以来,我国全面履行关税减让承诺,在世贸组织规则范围内,科学、自主地调整关税税率、税目和专项税收优惠政策,有效地发挥关税的宏观调控职能,并积累了丰富的关税调整经验。但是,关税结构仍然存在一些问题,作为大国财政的重要政策工具,未来关税政策调整应该基于更加宏观的视角,不但要考虑经济因素,还要注意政治、社会、文化以及制度等非经济因素,并进一步关注产业发展特点和绿色发展目标等,平衡好国内产业保护与高质量发展的关系。     

外资企业进口关税优惠政策的取消对外资流入的影响分析

对进口关税优惠政策的取消是否显著地减少了外资流入进行了检验.结果表明,外资企业进口关税优惠政策取消当年.流入中国的外商直接投资额不但没有减少,反而显著增加.增加的外资额更多地流入了那些未曾享受税收优惠政策的地区,这有利于外资在中国各地区的均衡分布.由于进口关税优惠政策是唯一经历了实施和取消过程的外商投资企业税收优惠政策,因此对它的研究有助于我们预测即将实行的内外资企业所得税合并对流入中国的外资额的影响.     

基于公共投资的内生增长：模型与政策

我国公共投资由各级政府部门主导,基于这一实践,文章在经典的拉姆齐-卡斯-库普曼斯模型的基础上,引入政府行政机构的最优化行为,说明在政府主导公共投资的增长方式下公共投资效率对经济增长和福利的影响。研究结果表明,存在一个公共投资效率的梯级,居民福利水平也呈现系列梯级分布,而且公共投资的生产效率梯级越高,居民福利水平梯级也越高。因此,在当前政府主导公共投资的增长方式下,采取有效措施提高公共投资的效率并使其位于关键值之上,这对于居民和政府机构是双赢的举措。     

我国企业高管股权激励与研发投资——基于内生性视角的研究

本文以2002—2009年我国上市公司为研究对象,探讨了股权分置改革前后我国企业管理层股权激励对研发投资的影响,并在此基础上检验了管理层股权激励的内生性。研究发现,高管股权激励存在内生性,在控制了内生性之后,股改前股权激励与研发投资之间存在倒U形曲线关系;股改后股权激励对研发投资具有显著的正向影响。本文结果表明应该将研发投资作为股权激励方案的激励条件之一;此外,合理的安排股东与管理层之间的股权配置比例是保证企业有效进行研发投资、提升企业自主创新能力的必要手段。本文的结论深化了我们对股权激励内生性的理解,并为我国企业更好地实施管理层股权激励和企业自主创新战略提供了理论支持和实证证据。     

票据融资发展拐点机理及影响研究:以山东为例

本文以山东省为例,运用博弈论等方法对票据融资拐点机理及其对货币政策传导机制的影响进行了研究,阐述票据融资与货币政策传导机制、经济发展的具体关系,进一步论证了当前我国票据融资的"泡沫化"和功能的"变异化",并基于中央银行角度,从功能再造、机制创新及市场拓展等三个方面就畅通票据融资在货币政策传导中的作用提出了相关政策建议。     

我国关税减让对进口的影响及应对措施

我国加入WTO初期,关税减让及非关税措施的逐步取消对国内产业产生了或大或小的冲击,而在未来几年内尤其是过渡期结束后这种冲击可能更大。在我国已经做出减让关税和取消非关税措施承诺的背景下,要减缓进口产品对国内市场的冲击只能求助于一些其他的符合WTO规则的措施。     

Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA

In February 2001, Turkey became the latest emerging market to experience a devastating crisis, following the collapse of its soft exchange rate peg. The crisis severely damaged the country's banking system and led to an unprecedented contraction in economic activity. The boom that preceded it seemed to be relatively short lived, as the initial rush of capital outflow occurred just eleven months after the start of the program, and the fatal exit just three months later. This paper discusses the factors that seemed to play an important role in the collapse of Turkey's International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported exchange rate-based stabilization plan just thirteen months after its commencement. It is often difficult to attribute such crises entirely to a single factor, and not always possible to arrive at a strong verdict by analyzing economic developments in light of, or in the manner formally suggested by, the alternative models commonly used to analyze currency crises in the literature. In the Turkish case, enumerating the many factors that may have contributed to the collapse is important and very useful--yet this should not obscure the critical role played by the failure to establish or achieve tangible progress toward a sustainable fiscal regime. Not recognizing this fundamental weakness could easily lead observers to emphasize design flaws as the main culprit or to argue that the collapse could have been avoided if several other factors had broken more in Turkey's favor.     

TPP对中国关税政策的影响及战略决策

"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"(TPP)是亚太地区重要的区域贸易协定之一。目前,我国虽尚未加入TPP,但TPP的"零关税"谈判必然会对我国关税政策产生影响。压力与动力如影随形,机遇与挑战并存。中国应以开放包容之心态积极应对,继续深化改革,寻找新的制度红利,以上海自贸区的成功运行为契机,为我国关税制度改革进行有益探索;辩证认识关税的有效保护功能,采取措施应对TPP的各种非关税壁垒,优化贸易条件,消除TPP对中国的不利影响;优化关税税率结构,合理选择运用零关税优惠政策。     

Emerging Derivatives Markets: The Case of Chile

We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in Turkey, an emerging market. We address the question of whether group-affiliated firms create internal capital markets or control large cash flows. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves a firm's accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Deviation of cash-flow rights from voting rights has a negative but insignificant effect on accounting performance, but a significant effect on market performance. We also find that a firm's accounting, but not stock market, performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results show that internal capital markets play an important role for the existence of business groups in an emerging market context.     

Self‐Fulfilling Prophecies of Failure: The Endogenous Balance Sheets of Distressed Companies

This article analyses a problem at the intersection of accounting, law, and economics: the economically efficient operation of legal arrangements for company failure is undermined because valuations of assets and liabilities become unstable once a firm is distressed. The paper draws on the three disciplines to show the pivotal role of asset and liability valuations in answering the legal question, whether the firm is insolvent, and the economic question, whether the firm should fail and its assets be redeployed to an alternative use. U.S. and U.K. evidence reveals a disconcerting indeterminacy in these processes: the probability that a firm will fail affects significantly the valuations assigned to assets and liabilities; but at the same time the valuation of assets and liabilities itself determines the probability of failure. This balance sheet endogeneity is then shown to delay economically efficient management changes under debtor‐oriented U.S. Chapter 11, and to induce unnecessary costly bankruptcy with creditor‐oriented U.K. receivership/administration. Recent cases trace this endogeneity in failures involving often controversial countermanding of huge financial claims.     

关税、配额与补贴：效果分析与政策取向

关税、配额与补贴是一个国家用来保护国内市场、帮助国内厂商抵御国外对手竞争的常用措施.由于保护机制不同,关税、配额与补贴对不同利益主体的利益再分配会产生不同的影响.因此,一个国家可以根据其要保护的利益主体不同采取相应的保护措施.     

WTO框架下的零关税机制探析

WTO零关税的贸易创造效应远远大于贸易转移效应,因而它具有更强的增进全球社会福利的正效应,但是处于国际分工体系中不同地位的国家所获得的利益与所承担的风险是不同的。在经济全球化的态势下,不加入WTO框架下的零关税协议,就可能面临“孤岛效应”的风险,中国应该成为“非农产品零关税”的先行者。