Eastern European Economic Integration and Foreign Direct Investment

Economic transition in Eastern Europe should generate market growth. In addition, current discussions on economic integration and the development of a free-trade area in Eastern Europe will improve market accessibility. These two forces will significantly affect the strategies by which external firms will choose to supply markets in Eastern Europe. This paper examines the ways in which supply strategy is likely to change. We show that both market growth and improved market accessibility will lead the external firms to switch from exporting to foreign direct investment. However, market growth is likely to lead to dispersed investment in the growing economies, whereas increased market accessibility, by establishing an integrated regional bloc in Eastern Europe, is more likely to lead to concentrated investment plus infra-regional exports to the remainder of the regional bloc. The switch from exporting to local production through foreign direct investment will favor consumers through lowered prices but will harm national producers by depressing profit margins.     

欧洲货币一体化中的财政约束研究——基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角

随着目前欧元区财政经济状况的整体恶化,稳定与增长的矛盾凸显,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束条款再度引发诸多争议。基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角,本文试图论证为实现欧元区物价稳定和欧元汇率稳定的双重目的,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束有其必要性。     

Britain and the European Monetary System: an American Perspective

How strong is the Case for Britain's entry to the ERM? Christopher Culp, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington, argues that the case for British entry is far from clear.     

Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003

Monetary policy reaction functions are estimated for the UK over three periods – 1985–90, 1992–97 and 1997–2003 – in order to disentangle two effects: the switch from an emphasis on exchange rate stabilization to inflation targeting, and the introduction of instrument-independence in 1997. The external factors considered include US as well as German interest rates, and this leads to the identification of 'domestic' and 'international' models of the reaction function. The results suggest that it is the changes in the institutional arrangements rather than those in the targeting regime which have been decisive in the development of policy in this period.     

Briefing Paper: The Interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Economic and Monetary Union

This article explores the implications of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the conduct of fiscal policy. Under EMU, where the European Central Bank is successful in controlling inflation, the loss of seigniorage revenues causes a potential problem for public sector deficits. To prevent the debt-income ratio from spiralling upwards, a primary budget surplus is ultimately required. EMU has usually been considered as a strong central monetary authority which forces fiscal discipline on lax national governments. But this is not the only possibility. Because the debt ratio can be reduced by surprise inflation, the price expectations of the private sector are important. Once these are taken into account, EMU can be examined in a 'game' framework in which the reputation of the authorities and the existence or otherwise of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities becomes a critical factor.
The paper finds that where the authorities enjoy reputation and cooperate, a one-off reduction in public spending will lead to a permanent decline in the real interest rate and crowd in extra private spending (consumption and investment). Without reputation the cut in government spending has to be sustained. Where there is neither reputation nor cooperation, the outcome depends on the structure of the European economy and whether fiscal policy can effect the terms of trade between countries. If the terms of trade remain unchanged, the outturn is similar to the case of cooperation without reputation, but where the terms of trade can be improved in one country, there is no incentive to cut public spending. In this case the outturn is higher inflation with private spending crowded out.     

货币时间价值与时间货币价值概念辨析

本文对货币时间价值和时间货币价值概念进行了辨析,前者主要体现货币资金在财富积累过程中所起作用,后者主要体现时间作为一种资源在财富积累过程中所起作用。     

The Firm, Money, and Economic Calculation

A bstract This paper examines the role of money and monetary calculation in the determination of the production structure of the economy.     

基础货币、货币乘数与货币当局资产负债结构的关系研究——基于中国1994～2006年季度数据的实证分析

本文提出货币当局的资产负债结构对基础货币和货币乘数产生重要影响,这种影响是通过改变公众的现金持有偏好和商业银行的准备金需求来间接实现的。对我国1994～2006年季度数据实证研究,单位根检验、Johansen协整分析及误差修正模型显示存在货币当局资产负债结构影响现金持有偏好与准备金需求的长期协整关系和短期波动规律,以国外净资产比重持续上升、商业银行再贷款比重不断下降及央行票据比重陡然上升为主要特征的货币当局资产负债结构调整,导致我国基础货币过快增加和货币乘数持续上升。     

The UK and European Monetary Union: Why we should not stand aside

Ahead of next year's IGC David Currie considers the case for European monetary Union. He argues overall that EMU is desirable, though political arguments dominate the economic ones, which are finely balanced. he also argues that the UK should participate if other member states proceed to EMU, because of the dangers of marginalisation in Europe and of reduced attractiveness as a location for inward investment.     

The ins and outs of European Monetary Union: some public policy issues

This paper reviews the problems, other than the foregone benefits of EMU, that would face countries-either EU members or non-members closely associated with the EU-as a consequence of staying outside EMU.
Problems both economic and political are discussed, but the primary focus is on economic issues.
It is concluded that there may be minor adverse consequences; but they are only a possibility.
What is clear is that claims that there will inevitably be major adverse consequences - higher inflation or interest rates, or lower growth, for example - are entirely without foundation.     

City and Country: Lessons from European Economic Thought

The article concerns some European thought on the issue of city and country. We discuss the contributions of Henri von Storch, Gustav von Schmoller, Werner Sombart, Wilhelm Röpke, and Friedrich Hayek and attempt to translate these theories into practice in documenting the case of the city of Marl.     

Collateralized Social Relations: The Social in Economic Calculation

Traditionally, economists have viewed social relations as "friction" or "impediments" to exchange and have excluded social relations from their analyses by assuming autonomous actors. Recently, however, a number of scholars—economists, sociologists, anthropologists, and other social scientists—have begun to discuss the numerous ways in which social arrangements both prompt and channel economic activity. Rational choice theory, social capital and network analysis, and agency and game theory, are among those approaches that consider the effects of social relations on economic action. In this paper we extend that discussion by arguing that social relations can function as "collateral" or assurance that an economic transaction will proceed as agreed by the parties involved. We review recent microeconomic theories and conjecture how they might be developed following this observation, which is derived from sociological and anthropological studies of economic action and organization.     

皖江城市带区域经济一体化进程的社会网络研究

随着社会经济的快速发展,区域城市闻的空间经济联系与优化成为研究热点,对城市间经济关系的准确判断和度量能很好地了解区域城市闻经济关联.借鉴引力模型思想,测算出皖江城市带城市间的经济联系值,采用社会网络分析方法对皖江城市带城市间的经济联系进行分析.通过分析发现,皖江城市带城市空间经济联系程度较高,经济联系网络关系围绕主要城市展开,网络中存在4个凝聚子群和明显的层级结构,但有向经济一体化发展的趋势.并提出加强皖江城市带区域经济一体化进程的对策.     

The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933: A Public Goods Analysis

A bstract . Hegemony theorists attribute the duration and severity of the Great Depression to the fact that, in 1933, the United States refused to take the place of Great Britain as world economic leader. This argument is based on the proposition that a major power must coordinate the international monetary and trading systems if is to obtain in those sectors. This thesis is reappraised by applying the theories of public goods , clubs, and public choice to the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an occasion when the United States declined the role of world economic hegemon.
Dig deep tunnels, store grain everywhere, and never seek begemony.     

现代货币数量论与中国"高货币化"成因

中国持续上升并已达高位的货币化水平成为人们纷纷讨论的问题。经济发展与货币供求的关系是解决这一问题逻辑的起点。本文从现代货币数量论角度塑造指标M/YP,剖析影响真实货币化的经济、制度因素。构造GARCH模型,利用中国改革以来的数据实证表明:现代货币数量论中货币、产出、物价之间一阶长期平稳关系在中国仍然有效;经济增长率、经济不平衡程度、非人力财富占总财富比重、人口年龄结构、预期收益率及外汇储备等因素对真实货币化的提高具有显著的促进作用。