从驰宏锌锗定向增发看监管透明度

在证券市场的发展过程中,对典型案例进行总结与反思是极其重要的。其中一些大案要案,甚至成为市场发展的驱动力。例如安然造假案,曾导致美国资本市场诚信危机,由此产生了《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》、《公平信息披露条例》等重典,推动了全球证券监管的革命性变革。典型案例的爆发并非都是正面结果,会出现截然不同的两种结局:既可提醒我们及时查漏补缺,推动相关法规的完善,严刑惩处违规者,以儆效尤;但如果对违规者“睁一只眼,闭一只眼”地姑息迁就,则会引来后续效仿者不断,破坏证券市场的法制环境,重则伤及政府公信。     

Deriving the new quantity equation: an approach for a closed and an open economy

This theoretical contribution shows a simple way in which the quantity equation can be derived as a long-term equilibrium solution for the case of a closed economy and an open economy, respectively. It is shown first for the case of a closed economy which parameters stand behind “velocity” and that indeed there are arguments why velocity should be constant over time – assuming a specific parameter set of the goods market. It is noteworthy that the quantity equation can be derived both in a demand-side context and in a long run supply-side approach. Moreover, a new derivation is presented for the case of an open economy and it is shown that trade as well as foreign direct investment should be expected to have an influence on the price level and the inflation rate, respectively. Finally, the analysis suggests that financial market activities should have an impact on the price level.I gratefully acknowledge technical support by Murat Ismail and David Hanrahan. Moreover I appreciate discussions with Jens Perret (Schumpeter School of Business and Economics) and Thomas Gries, University of Paderborn. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Expectation formation: Criteria and an assessment

Summary This paper presents three requirements which hypotheses on expectation formation should meet. These three criteria refer to the data used, to the learning process and to the identification of structural parameters. In the second part of the paper these criteria are used for assessing various expectation hypotheses and estimation procedures of models incorporating expectational variables. The analysis reveals that only weak forms of the rational expectation hypothesis and some proxy variable methods with time-varying parameters meet all three criteria.This research forms part of the author's dissertation and of the project Exchange-rate and Monetary Policy in International Dependence. Preliminary versions of this paper were presented at seminars at the University of Amsterdam and the University of Groningen and at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Copenhagen, August 24–28, 1987. Comments and suggestions by seminar participants, especially Willem H. Buiter, by members of the above-mentioned project and by an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Reflections and Confessions of an Erstwhile Economist

Bob McTeer reflects on some of the people and events that have influenced his thinking and his career as a central banker. He also discusses some of the issues he has encountered along the way. including free trade, productivity growth, inflation, monetarism, unemployment, and budget deficits.     

The decline and fall of an industry

Abstract

Economic history abounds in research concerned with the growth of flourishing trades and with the factors causing their rise or prosperity. Declining trades and dying occupations have not received the same attention. Trades which are declining are, however, just as important as those which are prospering for the understanding of the processes of economic development.     

Setting an exam as an information design problem

We take a teacher's exam-setting task as an information design problem. Specifically, the teacher chooses a conditional distribution of grades given students' types. After observing their exam results, each student updates her belief regarding her type via Bayes' rule and chooses an action. Students' reactions to the same exam result could be different, depending on their heterogeneous prior beliefs. The teacher's objective is to persuade students to take a certain action (e.g., applying to universities), which some may not choose without an exam. The teacher adopts different grade distributions, depending on the teacher's and the students' heterogeneous prior beliefs.     

Monetary policy for an open economy: an alternative framework with optimizing agents and sticky prices

The 'new open-economy macroeconomics' seeks to provide an improvedbias for monetary and exchange-rate policy through the constructionof open-economy models that feature rational expectations, optimizingagents, and slowly adjusting prices of goods. This paper promotesan alternative approach for constructing such models by treatingimports not as finished consumer goods but rather as raw-materialinputs to the home economy's productive process. This treatmentleads to a clean and simple theoretical structure that has someempirical attractions as well. A particular small-economy modelis calibrated and its properties exhibited, primarily by meansof impulse response functions. The preferred variant is shownto feature a pattern of correlations between exchange-rate changesand inflation that is more realistic than provided by a morestandard specification. Important recent events are interpretedin light of the alternative models.     

Updating an old question: Prices and quantities

The paper discusses the age-old, and yet unresolved, question of the sense in which the crucial economic variables-prices and quantities-can be considered as appropriate and compatible with each other in a position of economic equilibrium. The author compares, on this ground, two approaches, respectively epitomized by the solutions offered by Walras and by Sraffa; and shows that neither one can be regarded as fully satisfactory. A possible step forward-he maintains-implies the analysis of the uncomfortable question of the convergence towards a position of equilibrium. After having emphasized that this latter question can be posed in a plausible way only in the context of a “logical”-as opposed to “chronological”-conception of the adjustment process, the author illustrates the encouraging results emerging from a preliminary attempt in this direction carried out in a model which presents classical and Keynesian features. President of the Atlantic Economic Society 1990–91.     

人力资本与经济持续增长

经济增长一直是经济学研究的核心问题之一.自80年代以来,随着世界经济进入一轮新的增长(发展),关于经济增长问题的研究也发展到一个新的阶段,其标志是"内生性增长"理论的形成.该理论的核心是把科学技术进步和人力资本作为经济增长和发展的内生性要素,并支持着经济在长期内保持持续增长.这一理论认识对我国而言具有重要的参考价值.在我国经济经历了十几年的高速增长以后,能否继续将这一增长趋势推进21世纪,关键条件之一是我国的人力资本积累水平及其提高速度."科教兴国"无疑是一个正确的战略选择.     

Globalisation and its discontents: an Indonesian perspective

It is indeed a great honour for me to give the 2011 Heinz Arndt Memorial Lecture. The first time I met the great Professor Heinz Arndt was as a nine‐year‐old back in 1966 when our family first came to Canberra and Heinz was my father's (Panglaykim) new boss. I recall that he picked us up at the airport and within the first week we had visited his house in Deakin, where he gave me and my two brothers games such as Chinese checkers and books that his own kids had outgrown. So my first thought was: what a kind and thoughtful man. Little did I know that I would end up being what he often termed his ‘academic grandchild’. I never took a class from Heinz or was fortunate enough to be supervised by him. However, I had many interactions with him when I was a student at the Australian National University (ANU) and, upon graduation, as an aspiring young academic. He had an important influence on the course of my life. First, he encouraged me to do my PhD in the USA. After I completed my masters at the ANU under Peter Drysdale, I toyed with the idea of continuing with a PhD at the Research School of Pacific Studies. However, Heinz convinced me to go to the USA because he thought it would widen my horizons. He was right. Second, there was the importance of being disciplined and thorough in undertaking country or regional research. One of the most important initiation exercises for an academic working on Indonesia was to do a ‘Survey of Recent Developments’ for the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. I recall being given a yellowed document that had been formulated by Heinz with precise guidelines on topics, structure, and people to see and interview. We found similar guidelines on regional surveys when we did economic surveys of all the provinces a few years later. I found that doing the research and interviews for the survey was the easy part. The hard part was the two weeks spent in Canberra writing up the survey and being subjected to peer review. The draft was presented to the ‘editorial team’ and others, including, of course, the venerable Professor Arndt. I am glad to say that I passed in terms of substance; but of course there were lots of edits to do following Heniz's traditional typed‐up comments, both general and specific! Third, despite being a formidable figure and someone with a reputation for strong opinions, Heinz was the same kind and thoughtful man I remembered as a nine‐year‐old. He always had the time of day for the young academics, especially those from Indonesia. I had many cups of tea with him as a student and later as an aspiring academic. I still recall his room in University House filled with his books and the filing cabinet near the bathroom, where he would inevitably pull out the right references and reading materials that one needed. I learned a lot about the importance of mentoring and encouraging the young—many of whom have succeeded and are in the room today. This lecture is to honour Professor Heinz Arndt. I believe Professor Arndt was a true internationalist and therefore he would tackle with gusto the rumblings of discontent on globalisation. He would be thorough in trying to understand the manifestations of globalisation and its sources of discontent. He would also be of the firm belief that the benefits of globalisation outweigh its costs and come up with strategic ideas on how to best manage globalisation to counter ‘globaphobia’. I hope I do justice to this topic in the Heinz Arndt tradition.     

Low-Income Countries and an SDR-based International Monetary System

The global financial crisis, the weakening role of the dollar and the increasing international importance of China are calling for a reform of the international monetary system in the direction of greater multilateralism. To this end, we advance a proposal based on a greater role of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and focus on the potential benefits that these could bring to Low-Income Countries (LICs). SDRs would be created exogenously - with a disproportionate allocation to LICs -, but also endogenously, through a substitution account and an overdraft facility. Finally, the paper discusses the superiority of this proposal in the context of the current foreign assistance framework.     

应急报警系统的设计与实现

应急报警系统利用电、声、光信号向系统总体组人员通报各分系统、部件的故障和工作状态。文章论述了应急报警系统的组成、工作原理、技术特点及功能特性。     

Intra-industry adjustment and the correction of an externality

Conclusion The purpose of this paper is to apply some of the existing microeconomic theory literature on intra-industry adjustment resulting from factor price changes to the use of corrective taxes on externalities. The optimal tax to correct the effects of an externality is one placed directly on the external damage. Such a tax is sometimes not practically feasible, in which case either the inputs or output of firms in the externality-producing industry must be taxed as a proxy for the external damage.When the tax is placed on the input associated with the externality, the tax will only produce the optimal result if all firms produce an equal external damage which is proportional to the amount of the input which is used. If the amount of the externality produced by different firms is different, then an input tax will not satisfy the marginal conditions for optimality; and in some cases, the external damage may actually increase as a result of the input tax. An output tax, on the other hand, will never cause the external damage to increase, but will not in general satisfy the marginal conditions for optimality.When the amount of external damage caused by each firm in an industry is difficult to monitor, input or output taxes are two possible policy alternatives for controlling the externality. This paper has demonstrated that there are a number of problems associated with calculating the optimal input or output tax, and that a tax that is correct under restricted assumptions may actually aggravate the problem when examined in a more general environment. This analysis may explain why policy makers favor direct controls to reduce externalities, rather than taking the economist's frequent advice of using corrective taxes to price the externality.We are indebted to Charles Maurice for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

在健康与网络间寻找快车道

过去15年中，周苏岳一直在尝试作同一件事情：寻找互联网商业化的最佳模式。即使是现在，他一手创办的健康网获得了越来越多的人认可，他依然认为健康网并未最后获得成功——这和中国的具体国情有关，医药行业是一个高度管制的行业，要想获得最后的成功比较难。     

Energy and the poor in an Indian village

Observations in a North Indian village indicate that changes in social relations have played an important role in diminishing the accessibility of poor villagers to the local non-commercial fuels. As a result, they are seen to rely increasingly on least preferred toxic plants as fuel. Existing trends of shift in cropping pattern away from crops giving woody residues, and of declining tree-cover provided by orchards, indicate decreasing availability of local fuels in future. Alternatives for improving the utilization of local resources are seen to be ineffective with respect to the poor who are unable to invest in new conversion technologies and have restricted access to resources like common-lands. Accordingly interventions for improving local fuel availability would be of little help unless supplemented by measures to strengthen the social and economic position of the poor.