Decomposition analysis of the telecommunications sector in Indonesia: What does the cellular era shed light on?

Indonesia is currently enjoying rapid development in the telecommunications sector despite the economy having been heavily dependent for almost four decades on the two largest sectors: the manufacturing industry and trade. The telecommunications sector has played an important role in stimulating economic growth in the country during the last few years, with an annual growth rate higher than that of other sectors. This contribution is supported to a great extent by the rapid diffusion of telephony, in particular cellular telephony, as the number of subscribers increased from just 2.1 million in 1999 to 170 million in 2011. Previous studies investigating the impact of the telecommunications sector on the economy aggregate the impact of the sectors on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) without further scrutiny of what sources of growth telecommunications has contributed. Hence, an interesting question arises as to whether the achievement of cellular diffusion is also followed by structural change in the telecommunications sector. That said, this study aims to decompose the output of telecommunications into several sources of growth: domestic final demand, export effect, import substitution effect and technological coefficient effect. A particular interest in this study is to compare the source of growth concerning domestic final demand and the technological coefficient effect. The main tool for analysis in this study is the Input–Output (IO) method, while the time series of the investigation covers the period 1975–2008, allowing comparison of structural changes in the telecommunications sector between the pre- and post-cellular eras. The study found that the coefficient multiplier of the telecommunications sector, which was approximately 1.8 during the 1980s, had decreased to only 1.3 by the end of 2008. Consequently, the final demand from the telecommunications sector contributed less to economic output in the late 2000s compared to the impact in the 1980. Moreover, the cellular era that started in the early 2000s also brought about a trend of changes in telecommunications output. While final demand remains very dominant, the technological coefficient effect has diminished as the source of telecommunications output. This finding indicates a lower ability of the telecommunications sector to build an inter-industry relationship with other sectors. A possible explanation for this result is the cellular uses which are much less related to business activities than that of fixed telephony dating back to the 1970s in Indonesia.     

The economic impact of subsidized industrial R&D in Israel

Israel offers contingent subsidies to selected industrial R&D projects, with the purpose of creating high–quality jobs, reducing the trade deficit, increasing productivity and promoting growth. In 1987–94, 1,200 firms received $1,400 million of subsidies in support of $3,500 million of R&D (in constant 1996 dollars). We estimate that this R&D generated more than $31,000 million of sales, increasing industrial employment by about 10% and contributing to the trade balance a sum slightly less than the entire private sector deficit in the current account. It added 0.3% to GDP in increased productivity, each dollar of supported R&D adding an additional $0.45 to GDP and earning the economy a direct annual return of 13.4%. Electronics, broadly defined, received roughly half the subsidies while accounting for nearly two thirds of the gains; small firms that received one sixth of the subsidies contributed over a quarter of the gains.     

How information and communication technology drives (routine and non-routine) jobs: Structural path and decomposition analysis for China

A comprehensive exploration into the routine/non-routine job implications of information and communication technology (ICT) is crucial for tackling routine-replacing technological change challenges in the digital era. To this end, we propose an integrated input-output (IO) analytical framework to detangle the intertwined relations between ICT and non-ICT sectors, and further incorporate structural path analysis (SPA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to examine the extent to which and how ICT sub-sectors drive the formations and changes of embodied routine/non-routine jobs in ICT. An empirical study using China's national IO tables from World Input-Output Database and the matched occupational employment data derived from 2000 and 2010 Population Census is conducted. We find that China's ICT growth over 2000–2010 has not led to a decline in jobs, which still holds true for both ICT manufacturing and ICT service, as well as for routine/non-routine jobs. We also find an increase in the embodied employment share of non-routine relative to routine jobs. The typical paths “source sector → (intermediate sector) → ICT final demand” generate many routine/non-routine jobs, which are primarily lied in the zero and first rounds. The decomposition results show that the declining sectoral routine/non-routine job coefficients drives the decline of both ICT embodied routine and non-routine jobs (especially the former), which is completely offset by the rising final demand of ICT. The proposed integrated IO analytical framework could also be applied to other indicators and extended to multi-country/region analysis.     

Local Multipliers,Mobility, and Agglomeration Economies

This paper demonstrates that when one new job is generated by attracting a new business in the tradable sector in a local economy, a significant number of additional jobs are created in the nontradable sector when labor mobility is high. However, these multipliers disappear when labor mobility is low. This paper confirms that regions with higher labor inflow have larger multipliers. Furthermore, the spillover effect of agglomeration economies in the tradable sector is significantly positive on the nontradable sector.     

Information technology change,work complexity and service jobs: a contingent perspective

We examine the contingent impact of implementing an enterprise‐wide information technology system (Enterprise Resource Planning) on perceptions of work complexity in clerical, technical and managerial service sector jobs. Using matched and control samples of employee survey data, we compare pre‐ and post‐intervention perceptions of work complexity and importance of analytical skills across three hierarchical job levels: clerical, technical and managerial. We find that employees in clerical jobs, at the lowest level in the hierarchy, experience a significant increase in work complexity and need for analytical skills, whereas those in technical and managerial service jobs do not. Implications for theory, management of technology and employment policy are discussed.     

The new political economy of food and agricultural development

This paper emphasizes the benefits of an agricultural strategy of development in developing countries. It begins by analyzing the close links between food and employment in the development process. In an underdeveloped country, food production is minimal, but demand is as well because of the small population growth. After development begins, income rises and food demand outstrips production. Only at later stages of development can food production meet demand. The middle stage of development describes most developing countries, which have averaged annual growth rates of 3% per capita in 1966-80. The growth in food demand must be met through technological advance in agriculture: high-yield seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, which, for example, helped India increase cereal yields 29% between 1954-55 and 1964-65. The rate of growth in cropped areas has declined between 1961-1980, making increased yields more necessary. Growth in employment and income leads to higher food demand, which leads to higher prices and labor costs and a tendency towards capital-intensive agriculture. As the rural sector becomes wealthier, there is also more opportunity for non-agricultural rural workers, creating still more demand. In the final development stage, agricultural products can generate foreign exchange. In Asia, the priority is to ensure efficient outcomes of capital allocations, while in Africa, technology must be instituted. Public investment has been shown to be essential to rapid development in Japan, Taiwan, and the Punjab of India. The absence of this investment in Africa, partly because of an overemphasis on urban sector investment, is largely responsible for the backward state of African agriculture. Often rural areas are overtaxed, agricultural experts are lacking, and there is a growing presence of urban bureaucrats. Both experts in the donor community and farmers themselves must become more vocal in demanding investment in the agricultural sector.     

国际能源机构释放战略石油储备的原因及其对石油市场的影响

在国际油价高位回落的时候,国际能源机构（IEA）6月23日宣布,各成员国将动用6000万桶战略石油储备分30天投放市场,以填补利比亚供应中断导致的供应缺口和压低油价支撑全球脆弱的经济复苏。其真实意图耐人寻味,是出于对世界经济复苏放缓的担心？表达对欧佩克未能就增产达成一致的不满？还是为美国继续维持宽松货币政策做铺垫？释放战略石油储备对石油市场的影响已经显现,虽然短期内将在一定程度上缓解供需偏紧态势,但长期不会改变供需基本态势;短期内对油价形成利空,但长期形成支撑。从技术分析看,本轮投机资金获利回吐接近尾声;从总体上看,世界经济前景虽有波折,但后期仍看好。预计2011年三季度WTI原油均价为105美元/桶,较二季度提高5美元/桶以上,波动范围为85～125美元/桶。进入四季度,预计全球石油需求将较三季度增加30万桶/日左右,但非欧佩克供应将增加80万桶/日,供需形势有所好转。同时,四季度将是投机资金拉高出仓的时间,国际油价可能出现一定下滑。     

The Growth of Residential Capital Since World War II

The growth rate of residential capital in constant dollars shows a downward trend. Its decline since the early postwar years conforms broadly to the growth retardation found in an earlier study for the 1890–1950 period. The article analyzes the forces associated with the slowing rate of real capital increase in 1945–77 and concludes that they differed substantially from those operative in the earlier era. The growth patterns of residential and of fixed business capital since World War II have been quite dissimilar and generally in disfavor of the residential sector.     

The Impact of Foreign Competition and New Technologies on the Demand for Heterogeneous Labor

This paper investigates the impact which foreign competition, investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) and investment in capital goods other than ICT-related have on the demand for heterogeneous labor. A dynamic interrelated factor demands model serves as the theoretical framework and is estimated by an ordered probit model. Cross-sectional data from a business survey in the service sector are used in the empirical analysis.It turns out that skill-biased technological change is adeterminant of the recent decline in relative demand for lowskilled labor in the business-related services sector.Expected foreign competition positively affects the demandfor unskilled workers and for workers with completed vocationaltraining, while it leaves the demand for the other skill groupsunchanged.     

Finance, Investment and Investment Performance: Evidence from the REIT Sector

We examine financing, investment and investment performance in the equity REIT sector over the 1981–1999 time period. Analysis reveals significant differences between the old-REIT (1981–1992) and new-REIT (1993–1999) eras. The sector experienced rapid growth in the new-REIT era, primarily from firm-level investment as opposed to new entry. Firm-level investment was largely financed by equity and long-term debt, with little reliance on retained earnings. Financing policy stabilized in the new-REIT era, and capital structures became more complex. We find that REITs provided returns over and above their cost of capital, where most of the value-added investment occurred in the new-REIT era by newer firms. Finally, we present novel evidence on IPO activity and new firm investment–investment performance relations that is consistent with Tobin's q theory of investment.     

Internationalization and the Spaces of Temporary Labour: The Global Assembly of a Local Workforce

An increasing number of low‐status consumer service jobs in the UK are undertaken by economic migrants, who are often recruited through the aegis of employment agencies. This article explores the use of migrant agency workers by a London hotel and a hospital, looking at the ways in which such a labour force is recruited and assembled in parts of the service sector in Greater London. It argues that even in the most locally‐based of service‐sector jobs, typically involving face to face interactions, new sets of transnational connections are producing a globalized labour force.     

Extra‐Institutional Changes under Pressure from Posting

The posting of workers has become a key topic in debates about how national labour relations respond to pressures from EU market making. While most prior studies have shown that national employment relations are under pressure from above (via EU regulation) and from below (due to increasing use of posting), the question is whether these pressures will lead to erosion of employment relations or adaptation at the national level. Taking the case of posting in the Danish construction sector, the article shows that, while formal institutions stay the same through minor adaptation, the increasing use of posting has led to changes in the strategies of the social partners, shifts in predominant policy arenas and the appearance of new actors on the regulatory scene. As such, we argue that conflicts regarding posting are driving a process of extra‐institutional change.     

Regulated prices and real options

This paper shows how the cash flows received by an unregulated firm operating in a workably competitive market can be replicated for a regulated firm. The only change to standard regulatory practice is that each time the regulated firm invests, the amount added to its rate base is the product of its capital expenditure and a multiplier, greater than one, that captures the reduction in value of the unregulated firm's growth options that occurs whenever the firm invests. The regulated firm is allowed to earn a rate of return equal to its weighted-average cost of capital, applied to this rate base. Four possible approaches to estimating the size of the multiplier are presented, each based on an established real-options investment model.     

Getting a Good Job: Mobility in a Segmented Labor Market

This study examines the process by which men in three ethnic neighborhoods of Boston move from secondary to primary employment in a segmented labor market. Workers who successfully make this transition belong to neighborhood-based social groups that have customary linkages to particular primary jobs. Members of such groups costlessly learn how to perceive and act in the labor market in ways that faciliate their entry into the primary sector. Workers' labor market perceptions reflect objective characteristics of the primary jobs to which their social groups are linked.     

How much more do growers receive for Fair Trade-organic coffee?

I use a representative sample of coffee growing households in southern Mexico to estimate the price premium and gross income gain from participating in Fair Trade-organic markets through grower cooperatives. For the 2004–2005 season, FT-organic growers received an average premium of 12.8 cents per pound, yielding a gross income gain of 5% of total household income or about 26 dollars per household member. The gain is net of the costs of cooperative participation but not of other costs incurred to become certified and suggests that price premiums alone have a limited potential to increase household returns from growing coffee. More broadly speaking, the finding raises questions about the persistence of substantial price premiums associated with social or environmental labeling initiatives.     

Zero Hours Contracts and Their Growth

This article studies the prevalence and nature of zero hours contracts (ZHCs) in the UK labour market. It is widely argued that the headline count of ZHC workers based on the Labour Force Survey historically underestimated the number of workers in ZHC jobs. Here, we argue that this likely continues to be the case, particularly if one considers other, similar, no-guaranteed-hours jobs alongside ZHCs. ZHC jobs and workers are heterogeneous, but ZHCs have become increasingly concentrated among young workers, full-time students, migrants, black and minority ethnic workers, in personal service and elementary occupations, and in the distribution, accommodation and restaurant sector over time. Compared to other forms of employment, median wages in ZHC jobs have also fallen. The most common prior labour market state for ZHC workers is non-ZHC employment, particularly part-time employment, with part of the reported growth in ZHCs driven by reclassification of existing employment relationships. Finally, we show that growth in public awareness of ZHCs contributed substantially to recent growth in reported ZHCs, particularly over the period 2013/14.     

Jobs and agricultural policy: Impact of the common agricultural policy on EU agricultural employment

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and the outflow of labor from agriculture. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 210 EU regions over the period 2004-2014) than has been used before. The data allow to better correct for sample selection bias than previous empirical studies. We find that, on average, CAP subsidies reduce the outflow of labor from agriculture, but the effect is almost entirely due to decoupled Pillar I payments. Coupled Pillar I payments have no impact on reducing labor outflow from agriculture, i.e. on preserving jobs in agriculture. The impact of Pillar II is mixed. Our estimates predict that an increase of 10 percent of the CAP budget would prevent an extra 16,000 people from leaving the EU agriculture sector each year. A 10 percent decoupling would save 13,000 agricultural jobs each year. However, the budgetary costs are large. The estimated cost is more than € 300,000 per year (or more than € 25,000 per month) per job saved in agriculture.     

Computer Use and Productivity Growth in US Federal Government Agencies, 1987–92

We examine the impact of information technology (IT) on productivity in the public sector econometrically, using data from the BLS Federal Productivity Measurement Program and from Computer Intelligence Infocorp, and by interviewing some government officials. We estimate a production function for government services that includes IT capital as an input, and find a strong positive relationship across federal agencies between productivity growth and computer-intensity growth during the period 1987–92, controlling for growth in compensation and other outlays per employee, and in the number of employees. Our estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that there are 'excess returns' to IT capital.     

Long‐Run Patterns of Labour Market Polarization: Evidence from German Micro Data

The past four decades have witnessed dramatic changes in the structure of employment. In particular, the rapid increase in computational power has led to large‐scale reductions in employment in jobs that can be described as intensive in routine tasks. These jobs have been shown to be concentrated in middle‐skill occupations. A large literature on labour market polarization characterizes and measures these processes at an aggregate level. However, to date, there is little information regarding the individual worker adjustment processes related to routine‐biased technological change. Using an administrative panel dataset for Germany, we follow workers over an extended period of time and provide evidence of both the short‐term adjustment process and medium‐run effects of routine task‐intensive job loss at an individual level. We initially demonstrate a marked, and steady, shift in employment away from routine, middle‐skill, occupations. In subsequent analysis, we demonstrate how exposure to jobs with higher routine task content is associated with a reduced likelihood of being in employment in both the short term (after one year) and medium term (five years). This employment penalty to routineness of work has increased over the past four decades. More generally, we demonstrate that routine task work is associated with reduced job stability and more likelihood of experiencing periods of unemployment. However, these negative effects of routine work appear to be concentrated in increased employment to employment, and employment to unemployment transitions rather than longer periods of unemployment.     

Wages Councils: Was There a Case for Abolition?

The 1993 Trade Union Reform and Employment Rights Act removed the remaining minimum wage protection for some 2.5 million low paid workers by abolishing the last 26 UK Wages Councils. The Government's case for abolition rested on three key arguments: (1) minimum wages do little to alleviate poverty since most covered workers do not live in poor households; (2) when in operation, minimum wages reduced employment in covered industries; (3) the problems of poverty that the wages councils were set up to deal with in 1909 are not relevant in today's labour market. In this paper we address each of these points in turn. We find that: (a) 50 per cent of families with at least one earner being paid wages council rates come from the poorest 20 per cent of families; (b) the existing evidence suggests that abolishing the Wages Councils is unlikely to create jobs; (c) the widening earnings distribution in the UK means that low pay is an increasingly important determinant of poverty. If anything, there appears to be an increasing need for minimum wage legislation in the UK.