Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK

This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the US and the UK which indicate that in these countries the government’s fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.     

Entrepreneurship and business culture in Japan and the U.S.

It seems to me likely that entrepreneurship will take a different path in Japan than it has in the U.S. Given the prominence of large organizations in key areas of Japan's economy and the emphasis its society places on lifetime employment relationships, many of the “startups” of the sort that transformed the American business are more likely to happen within existing firms rather than as new enterprises. Such development, called “intrapreneurship” in the U.S. requires new institutional structures and rewards. Such changes will not come easily, because they run against the grain of Japanese society and business culture, yet I believe that success will come to those who can execute such strategies.     

Fiscal sustainability in Japan

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability of Japan by providing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that features the low interest rate of the government bond relative to the economic growth rate to mimic the actual data. We evaluate fiscal sustainability by investigating whether the expected path of the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes or increases without bound. The debt-to-GDP ratio depends crucially on the projected growth rate and the fiscal policy rule. If the government does not react to the current fiscal crisis, the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase without bound, and then the fiscal policy is not sustainable. If the fiscal rule uses Bohn’s (1998) idea that involves the response of the primary surplus to the debt, sustainability improves. This rule provides a useful and realistic reform plan in the short and long runs.     

Health insurance reform and economic growth: Simulation analysis in Japan

This paper evaluates the drastic reforms of Japanese public health insurance initiated in 2006. We employ a computable general equilibrium framework to numerically examine the reforms for an aging Japan in the dynamic context of overlapping generations. Our simulation produced the following results: first, an increase in the co-payment rate, a prominent feature of the 2006 reform, would promote economic growth and welfare by encouraging private saving. Second, the ex-post moral hazard behavior following the increase in co-payment rates, however, reduces economic growth. Third, Japan's trend of increasing the future public health insurance benefits can mainly be explained by its aging population, and increasing the co-payment rate does little to reduce future payments of public health insurance benefits. Fourth, the effect on future economic burdens of reducing medical costs through efficiencies in public health insurance, emphasis on preventive medical care, or technological progress in the medical field is small. Finally, a policy of maintaining public health insurance at a fixed percentage of GDP will require reducing public health insurance benefits, perhaps up to 45% by 2050. Such a policy also reduces economic growth until approximately 2035. Our simulation indicates that the reform does not significantly reduce future public health insurance benefits, but it can enhance economic growth and welfare by encouraging private saving.     

Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy

This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in policy regimes in which monetary policy is ‘passive’ and fiscal policy ‘active’. This configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in economies such as the US and Japan. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce macroeconomic instability for a range of policies specified as simple rules. However, interest-rate pegs combined with active fiscal policies almost always ensure macroeconomic stability. This suggests that in periods where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is a relevant constraint on policy design, a switch in fiscal regime is desirable.     

The usefulness of earnings versus book value for predicting stock returns and cross corporate ownership in Japan

Using a sample of Japanese firms, this paper evaluates the usefulness of the two fundamental products of an accrual accounting system, namely accrual earnings and book value of equity for predicting stock returns. Our analysis shows that both earnings and book value for Japanese firms have the ability to provide for profitable trading strategies or improved portfolio decisions, and that relative to the trading strategy based on earnings or book value alone, the trading strategy based on a combination of both earnings and book value generates substantially higher returns for all cases. This suggests that book value (or earnings) captures certain aspects of equity values that are not captured by earnings (book value). Our multivariate regression results further indicate that the predictive ability of earnings is dominated by that of book value. Finally, it is found that the predictive ability of book value is sensitive to the degree of cross corporate ownership, while it is insensitive to the degree of real estate holding.     

Political instability and inflation in Pakistan

This study investigates the effects of political instability on inflation in Pakistan. Applying the Generalized Method of Moments technique and using data from 1951 to 2007, we examine this link through two different models. The results of the ‘monetary’ model suggest that the effects of monetary determinants are rather marginal and that they depend upon the political environment of Pakistan. The ‘nonmonetary’ model's findings explicitly establish a positive association between political instability and inflation. This is further confirmed through analysis based on interactive dummies that reveal political instability significantly leading to high (above average) inflation.     

Business cycle transmission and interdependence between Japan and Australia

This paper investigates business cycle transmission and interdependence between Australia and Japan over the period 1961.1–1994.4. Vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models were constructed utilizing GDP/GNPs, producer prices, interest rates and money supplies. The model is tested for cointegration. Two cointegrating vectors are found, and a vector error correction (VEC) model is estimated. The coefficients and the F-tests of the VEC are used to measure the effect of one economy upon the other. Impulse responses from a VAR are examined for evidence of business cycle transmission, and recursive least squares estimates are used to check for structural change in the relationship. Figures are used to graphically demonstrate these relationships and have been collected in an appendix, which can be found at the end of the text.While the two countries engage in a close trading relationship, the two economies are found to be only somewhat interdependent in macroeconometric terms. Japan is found to transmit some of its business cycle fluctuations to Australia, but there is little reverse transmission.     

A new anatomy of the retirement process in Japan

In Japan, retirement is a gradual process that transpires over a particularly long period of time. Using large scale micro-level datasets from the Survey of Employment of the Elderly compiled by the Japanese government, we provide some stylized facts on the development of retirement behavior since the 1980s and explore factors affecting the individual retirement decision. First, we observed a general declining trend in the proportion of retired individuals aged 55–59 (especially females) while the proportion of retired individuals aged 65–69 (especially males) increased. Second, the survival analysis on actual retirement age shows that those who are more educated are more likely to retire earlier and those who experienced mandatory retirement are less likely. Third, the survival analysis on the expected retirement age shows that individuals who are satisfied with their job in terms of nonmonetary rewards are less likely to retire earlier.     

Monetary policy rules for a developing country: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper estimates forward-looking monetary policy rules to examine the interest rate setting behavior of the State Bank of Pakistan. Considering the external constraints on monetary policy, core inflation and a country-specific measure of the output gap, we demonstrate that the State Bank of Pakistan reacts to changes in inflation, the output gap and the federal funds rate.     

Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration

Many studies analyze the money demand using a (fixed coefficient) cointegrating regression model, which may not be appropriate to deal with the money demand of a transition economy like China. This paper investigates this issue using a time-varying cointegration approach based on the quarterly data from 1996 to 2009. We find some interesting results: (i) the estimates of the income elasticities are between 0.60 and 0.75, which are comparable with the previous studies; (ii) the estimated interest rate elasticity supports the argument that the overall effect of the interest rate on the money holding is weak although there are some mild evidences that it has been strengthened in recent years; (iii) the substitution effect of equity asset dominates the wealth effect, especially, during the bullish market period. Our result is robust to the alternative choices of the scale or opportunity cost variables and shows that omission of the stock prices in the money demand function would possibly yield a misspecification problem.     

Monetary vs. fiscal policy: Some evidence from vector autoregression for India

This paper investigates the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policy for India. Unlike previous studies, a more general approach of multivariate vector autoregression has been employed. Analysis of the causality results based on the joint F-tests and the dynamic multipliers based on the variance decompositions and the impulse response functions unambiguously support the Keynesian stance on the importance of fiscal policy. There is very little evidence of exogeneity of money supply, undermining the validity of the monetarist proposition. On the contrary, Indian monetary policy appears to have accommodated changes in government expenditure, prices and output, lending support to the structuralist-Mundellian views.     

Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

Building the dynamic linkages between R & D and productivity growth

This study attempts to integrate the dynamic and spillover characteristics of R & D into the explanation of total factor productivity growth. To characterize the dynamic feature of R & D, the dynamic growth model is reformulated to explicitly consider the contribution of R & D. The two different types of spillover effects are characterized as one that can be used directly and the other that needs to be assimilated by firms' own investment. Empirical application of the theoretical methodology facilitates investigating factors contributing to the growth of the manufacturing sector in Taiwan over the period 1980–1991. It is found that the scale-related components have a dominant contribution in the growth of total factor productivity contributing approximately 95.3% of the growth. Although the spillover effect is quite insignificant, accumulation of R & D capital contributes nearly half of the residual growth of the manufacturing sector.     

What causes business cycles? Analysis of the Japanese industrial production data

We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods used are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand, and the second factor as inventory adjustment. They cannot be reasonably interpreted as technological shocks. We also demonstrate that in terms of two dominant factors, shipments lead production by four months. Furthermore, out-of-sample test demonstrates that the model holds up even under the 2008–2009 recession. Because a fall of output during 2008–2009 was caused by an exogenous drop in exports, it provides another justification for identifying the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand. All the findings suggest that the major cause of business cycles is real demand shocks.     

An alternative method of measuring economic efficiency: The case of grain production in China

The objective of this paper is to suggest a simple method to gauge the economic efficiency of firms, when there are no reliable price data. Applying the suggested method on the recent Chinese farm-household survey data collected during 1993 and 1994, this study shows that majority of grain farmers in China are not producing at the optimum levels which yield maximum profits. The analysis also indicates that output can be increased by consolidating rather than further segmenting the operational area of grains.     

Land fragmentation and farm productivity in China in the 1990s

The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of fragmentation on farm productivity in China and to discuss policy implications. Some earlier work has questioned the importance of the economic costs of land fragmentation in developing economies. It has been argued that policymakers should focus instead on reducing the root causes of fragmentation: inefficiencies in land, labour, credit, and food markets. Our results, using a more recent and larger dataset from a household survey in China, find that fragmentation does have an economic cost in China. Production functions are estimated for each of the major grain crops in the sample provinces. We also argue that to reduce the economic costs, land consolidation in China should be undertaken with less government intervention. More attention should be given to the establishment of markets for land (or land use rights) and improvements in rural credit and grain markets.