我国大都市区集聚与扩散的空间计量分析——基于空间面板数据

随着"疏散化"趋势的到来,我国大都市地区所呈现的集聚与扩散趋势逐渐明显。以我国128个大都市区为例,对其经济发展在空间上的集散特征进行空间自相关分析。全局莫兰指数表明,2000年至2017年我国大都市区经济发展整体上呈现显著的集聚特征,但是集聚程度呈现下降的趋势。从东中西和东北地区角度看,东部地区和东北地区均具有显著的扩散趋势,但是原因不同;中部大都市区的集聚程度具有下降的趋势;而西部大都市区具有显著集聚上升的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明,城市化率、人口规模和城镇居民人均可支配收入水平均对大都市区的经济增长率具有显著的空间正向关系,且居民人均收入水平对城市经济增长率的影响程度最大,大都市区之间经济发展的空间溢出效应较为显著,经济发展水平较高的大都市区辐射带动作用较强。最后,从顺应大都市区发展趋势、因地制宜制定城市发展规划以及合理分布人口规模和提高居民收入水平三个角度提出对策建议。     

Decentralization and the Decline of the Central City: A Case Study of Demographic and Economic Change in Bridgeport, Conn.

A bstract . The fiscal crisis of particular central cities has been primarily caused by social and economic decentralization within metropolitan regions. This hypothesis is examined through a case study of the Bridgeport, Connecticut metropolitan region. Middle and upper income groups have moved from the central city of Bridgeport to its suburbs while the poor remain. Business and industry have also decentralized. These factors weaken the capacity of the central city to generate sufficient revenue from its declining share of the region's taxable resources. The central city must fund a wide range of services and faces, as all local governments do, increased costs. Because of these fundamental social and economic changes , the central city cannot meet its service commitments. Unless the existing system of public finance is altered, continued decline is inevitable.     

Community income distributions in a metropolitan area

We extend de Bartolome and Ross [C.A.M. de Bartolome, S.L. Ross, Equilibrium with local governments and commuting: Income sorting vs. income mixing, Journal of Urban Economics 54 (2003) 1–20] to the case when the income distribution in the metropolitan area is a continuous distribution. In particular, we consider a circular central city surrounded by a suburban community. All households must commute to the metropolitan center and public service levels differ in the two jurisdictions. There is intra-jurisdictional and inter-jurisdictional capitalization. Our model has an equilibrium in which the income distributions of the central city and of the suburban community do overlap. Our finding contrasts with the traditional finding of Alonso–Mills–Muth-type models of spatial sorting and of Tiebout-type models of fiscal sorting, both of which have been shown to predict that the income distributions of the two communities do not overlap. In addition, the model explains the fixedness in jurisdictional boundaries.     

省域中心城市的内涵与选择——以江苏省为例

本文在分析中心城市概念、作用、功能、特征的基础上 ,具体分析了省域中心城市的内涵。省域中心城市是指城市整体实力具有省域影响力的城市 ,可分为三级 :一级中心是具有国际性、全国性、全省性或省际性影响力的城市。二级中心是具有省内地区性综合影响力 ,某些单项职能超过地区、省域的城市。三级中心是具有跨越综合影响力 ,某些单项职能超过地区、省域的城市。继之 ,根据现有中心城市的现实条件和未来发展潜力 ,作者为省域中心城市提出了具体的前提性标准和目标性标准 ,以及选择的方法与步骤 ,并以江苏为例进行了具体选择。本文可为正在开展的省域城镇体系规划提供方法上的借鉴。     

大城市人口空间演变及城郊关系演进

国际经验表明,大都市区人口空间演变引发政治、经济、社会重心向郊区转移,并进一步带来城郊关系的调整,从而对大都市区的经济社会发展产生影响。1990年代以来,中国大城市经历了类似的过程,人口空间演变催生了平等、分工、协作的新型城郊关系。     

Who's in charge of the central city? The conflict between efficiency and equity in the design of a metropolitan area

A circular metropolitan area consists of a central city surrounded by a suburb. Households sort over the two jurisdictions based on public service levels and their costs of commuting to the metropolitan center. Using numerical simulations, we show that (1) there typically exist two equilibria: one in which the poor form the voting majority in the central city and the other in which the rich form the majority in the central city; (2) there is an efficiency vs. equity trade-off as to which equilibrium is preferred; and (3) if the central city contains only poor households, equity favors expanding the central city to include rich households. The third result arises not because of a fiscal subsidy from rich to poor households induced by a property tax but rather because of a change in house price capitalization.     

The incidence of metropolitan property tax base sharing and rate equalization

The incidence of metropolitan property tax base sharing and rate equalization is analyzed in a two-jurisdiction model of a metropolitan economy. Analytical results indicate how the effects of this reform proposal can be separated into efficiency gains, redistributions among metropolitan residents, and redistributions among residents and nonresidents of the metropolitan area; the effects of enactment on suburban housing prices are also analyzed. Numerical results suggest that enactment of metropolitan base sharing and rate equalization would result in fairly small efficiency gains even with significant factor reallocations and would be accompanied by sizable income redistributions among city and suburban landowners.     

Intrametropolitan migration: A simultaneous model of employment and residential location of white and black households

This study explores the relationship between the home and job location of the household within a metropolitan area. The model is an extension of the Alonso-Muth framework and allows the household to simultaneously choose its residential and employment location, monthly rent, number of rooms and the type of structure of the dwelling unit, so as to maximize its utility subject to the budget constraint.The data base is the Home Interview Survey conducted in 1965 by the (San Francisco) Bay Area Transportation Study Commission. The coefficients in the simultaneous model are estimated by two-stage least squares. The cross-section sample is stratified by tenure into renters and homeowners; by race into black and white households; and further by position in the life-cycle.The results of the location equations reveal that both the home and job location are responsive to each other which implies that the decentralization of jobs will result in the decentralization of residences for black households. The results of the housing equations imply that black and white households have almost identical elasticity of demand for housing. There is very slight evidence of price discrimination against black households. However, there is evidence that black households do face a geographical segregated market for rental housing.The results of this study argue that the decentralization of population is not due solely to rising incomes and will continue as long as industry decentralizes. Furthermore, governmental policies of increasing the income of central city residents, through subsidies to employers to locate in the central city will have a strong effect: inducing those residents to remain in or move into the central city. Thus, a policy that is meant to alleviate the plight of the city center may only result in strengthening the racial and income split between the suburb and the central city inhabitants.     

重庆主城规划转型与理念——以重庆渝中区规划为例

重庆市渝中区作为主城规划的重点和关键,在直辖前后,其规划转型有七个显著特征,一是规划指导思想从单纯注重经济增长转变到促进社会全面发展;二是规划管理从注重局部转变到整体建立体系;三是规划调控从改善居住条件为主转变到致力于城市整体功能完善;四是规划布局从推动半岛开发为主转变到全区域整体协同发展;五是规划策略从大规模旧城改造转变到推动旧城有机更新;六是规划手段从定点拆除违法建筑为主转变到综合整治空间环境;七是规划技术从平面分析为主转变到三维仿真虚拟现实等先进技术运用。新时期,规划工作提出了八项规划理念和方法,一是追求新区与旧城的和谐共生是构建和谐城市的战略目标;二是强化"一极三区一带"的功能区划是整体协同发展的合理空间布局;三是加快储备地块按规划改造是健全城市功能的迫切要求;四是合理定位重点区域的功能是建设服务强区的基本保证;五是加快《渝中半岛城市设计》的实施是突显城市个性特色的主要内容;六是坚持"下半城"保护与更新是延续城市文脉的必由之路;七是推进城市景观综合整治是提升城市艺术的有效措施;八是确保城市规划的法定地位是城区有序发展的重要保障。     

Spatial distribution of the specialization of arts

The hypothesis is that the major source of concentration of arts in different regions is due to agglomeration effects of specialized talents, city size, income, and quality of life. Twenty-nine large metropolitan areas are ranked and assessed for enhancing the climate for arts activity. Data on metropolitan areas in the United States on cost of living, transportation, employment, education, climate, crime, health care, recreation, city size, and per capita income are used as explanations for predominance of art in the 29 metropolitan areas. The results indicate that cities with larger populations and higher per capita income have greater concentrations of artistic activity. Other explanatory variables include factors associated with the quality of life. (JEL RIO, R23)     

Population decentralization within metropolitan areas: 1970-1980

Using a data set that maintains geographic and fiscal continuity over time and across a sample of major U.S. metropolitan areas, the authors identify factors of economic and population decentralization that affected central city areas between 1970 and 1980. The problems of annexation are resolved by estimating population changes for central cities and suburban areas with constant 1980 boundaries, and by calculating fiscal variables from overlapping jurisdictions by city area as opposed to municipal city government only. "The empirical investigation supports the view that demographic and housing stock variables seem to have had a greater impact on decentralization than central city-suburban fiscal differences."     

石家庄都市区城乡一体化进程与空间组织

随着城乡差距的日益加大,都市区成为实现城乡一体化的重点区域.本文对石家庄都市区城乡一体化进程现状特征和问题进行了分析,发现石家庄都市区虽然进行了“退二进三”功能调整,但临近市区的四县市与远离市区的十三县市产业结构雷同、发展水平相当,严重阻碍了石家庄都市区竞争优势的发挥.由此提出了“强化中心、壮大外围、联动城乡、优化体系...     

On the Applicability of the Tiebout Model to Japanese Cities

The purpose of this paper is to apply the so-called Tiebout hypothesis empirically to Japanese cities. 117 cities in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 72 cities in the Osaka metropolitan area are respectively classified into eight clusters using public expenditure densities as attribute variables. The land price of each city is then regressed on per capita income, population density and dummy variables corresponding to the clusters. High statistical significance of the estimated coefficients of the dummy variables can be taken meaningfulness of the initial classification of cities in which individuals of varying preference to the different patterns of public expenditures reside, Through this procedure, the authors reached the conclusion that the Tiebout hypothesis is applicable to cities in Japanese metropolitan areas.     

An evaluation of proposals for metropolitan sharing of commercial and industrial property tax base

This paper examines proposals to withdraw taxing authority over commercial and industrial property from municipalities and confer it on a metropolitan government to be taxed at a uniform rate. A theory which suggests that local tax payments by firms represent compensation for their external effects is used to show that such proposals could reduce the efficiency of land use in the metropolitan area. Empirical work indicates that the proposals would not necessarily be progressive, and in any case they are inferior in this respect to metropolitan taxation of all property.     

The case for heterogeneity of cities

The general similarity of the results of comparative statics in a semiclosed and in a fully closed city have been demonstrated by Pines and Sadka (Journal of Urban Economics 20, 1–20, 1986). The objective of this paper is to determine if the consequences of different forms of public regulation of the urban land market are also invariant with respect to the type of city. The conclusion is that while there are well-defined consequences of such controls on metropolitan area and land values in a semiclosed city, the impacts in a fully closed city are generally ambiguous. Therefore, proposals for the introduction of zoning and density regulation have to be city-specific and take into consideration the pattern of land ownership and the extent of leakage of urban land rent income.     

The effect of zoning on the size of metropolitan areas

The paper develops a two-sector urban model of center city and suburbs in which the effect of suburban large lot zoning on metropolitan area size can be determined. The model shows that zoning makes all metropolitan area residents—center city and suburban—worse off in their role as renters. However, zoning can cause metropolitan area size to either increase or decrease, depending on specified parameter values. The model also shows that zoning can cause an increase or decrease in overall metropolitan area land value. Finally, the question of who gains and who loses from zoning is discussed.     

Hedonic prices, price indices and housing markets

This paper extends hedonic price analysis to the formation of housing price indices measuring variation within a metropolitan area. In forming these indices fifteen submarkets, heterogeneous across time and space, are described within a short-run equilibrium model. Linear functional forms are generally rejected using a method proposed by Box and Cox. Aggregation of hedonic price coefficients into standardized units yields significantly higher housing prices in the central city than in its suburbs, as well as differential effects of structural and neighborhood improvements among submarkets.     

Suburbanization and transportation in the monocentric model

This paper presents a version of the monocentric city model that incorporates heterogeneous commuting speeds by introducing radial commuting highways. This model implies that metropolitan area population spreads out along new highways, which are positively valued by residents. Simulations of conservative specifications of the model imply that each additional highway ray causes about a 10 percent decline in central city population. Given observed central population declines and urban highway construction between 1950 and 1990, this model implies that highways can account for an important part of urban population decentralization.     

Suburbanization and transportation in the monocentric model

This paper presents a version of the monocentric city model that incorporates heterogeneous commuting speeds by introducing radial commuting highways. This model implies that metropolitan area population spreads out along new highways, which are positively valued by residents. Simulations of conservative specifications of the model imply that each additional highway ray causes about a 10 percent decline in central city population. Given observed central population declines and urban highway construction between 1950 and 1990, this model implies that highways can account for an important part of urban population decentralization.