Die asymptotische Verteilung des Prognosefehlers bei Prognosen mit Hilfe eines dynamischen ökonometrischen Modells höherer als erster Ordnung

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird die asymptotische Verteilung des Prognosefehlers, wie er sich im Rahmen einer dynamischen Simulation eines allgemeinen autoregressiven ökonometrischen Modells der Ordnungp (einschließlich verzögerter exogener Variabler der Ordnungq) ergibt, abgeleitet. Daran anschließend werden einige Fragestellungen, die damit in unmittelbarem Zusammenhang stehen, diskutiert: Die Frage der relativen Effizienz der Prognoseschätzung, basierend auf der unrestricted- bzw. der derived reduced form, die Verwendung der asymptotischen Verteilung des Prognosefehlers für einen predictive test des Modells. Außerdem werden asymptotische simultane Prognoseintervalle abgeleitet.

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Summary The asymptotic distribution of the forecast error in the dynamic simulation of a higher than first order linear dynamic econometric model is derived and related topics are discussed.

     

One-Step and Two-Step Estimation of the Effects of Exogenous Variables on Technical Efficiency Levels

Consider a stochastic frontier model with one-sided inefficiency u, and suppose that the scale of u depends on some variables (firm characteristics) z. A one-step model specifies both the stochastic frontier and the way in which u depends on z, and can be estimated in a single step, for example by maximum likelihood. This is in contrast to a two-step procedure, where the first step is to estimate a standard stochastic frontier model, and the second step is to estimate the relationship between (estimated) u and z.In this paper we propose a class of one-step models based on the scaling property that u equals a function of z times a one-sided error u ^* whose distribution does not depend on z. We explain theoretically why two-step procedures are biased, and we present Monte Carlo evidence showing that the bias can be very severe. This evidence argues strongly for one-step models whenever one is interested in the effects of firm characteristics on efficiency levels.     

Eine simultane Charakterisierung der geometrischen Verteilung und der logistischen Verteilung

Summary LetE denote the generating function of a non-degenerate probability distribution on the positive integers, letF be a non-degenerate distribution function, and let be a real valued function on the interval (0, 1]. In the present paper the solutions (E, F, ) of the functional equationE(F(x)/E()=F(x+()), –<x<+, (0, 1] are given. It is shown that ifF is symmetric about zero,E andF belong to a solution of the functional equation if and only ifF is a logistic distribution andE is the generating function of a geometric distribution.     

Vergleich des verallgemeinerten nichtzentralent-Tests mit dem Binomialtest

Zusammenfassung Es sei {F _,(x); –<<, >0} mitF _,(x)=F((x–)/)–F(x) eine standardisierte Verteilungsfunktion — die Familie der zulässigen Verteilungsfunktionen. Der (früher eingeführte) verallgemeinerte nichtzentralet-Test für die Hypothese {PP ₀} mitP:=F _,(x ₀) gegen die Alternative {P>P ₀} zum Niveau wird mit dem entsprechenden nichtparametrischen Test (Test für die Hypothese {pP ₀} über den Parameterp einer Binomialverteilung gegen die Alternative {p>P ₀}) verglichen. Für dent-Test wird die relative asymptotische Effizienz bestimmt.Beide Tests lassen sich als Tests für das zur WahrscheinlichkeitP ₀ gehörende Quantil einer Verteilungsfunktion interpretieren. Der klassische zentrale Student-Test ergibt sich als Spezialfall (F(x)=(x),P ₀=0,5).

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Summary Let {F _,(x);–<<, >0} withF _,(x ₀):=F((x–)/–F(x) a standarized distribution function — the family of admissible distribution functions. The (earlier introduced) generalized noncentralt-test for the hypothesis {PP ₀} withP:=F _,(x ₀) against the alternative {P>P ₀} at level of significance is compared with the corresponding nonparametric test (Binomial test). The relative asymptotic efficiency of thet-test is determined. Both kinds of tests can be interpreted as quantiltests. In caseF(x)=(x),P ₀=0,5 one gets the classical central Student-test.

     

Estimation of a regression coefficient after two preliminary tests of significance

Summary The estimation of the regression coefficient of a population, defined byE (y)= +x, incorporating two preliminary tests of significance has been discussed. The experimenter has two random samples of different sizes from two such populations, as defined above, with regression coefficients ₁ and ₂ respectively, where ₂ may possibly be equal to ₁. Besides this, it is also conjectured that the common conditional variance ² of the two populations has a specified value ₀ ² . The two preliminary tests are used to resolve these two uncertainties.The author has rejoined Lucknow University, Lucknow India on Oct. 4, 1976 after availing leave for two years.     

Hypocrisy pay

Emotional labor—putting on an act asrequired explicitly orimplicitly in work situations-is very often psychologically, emotionally, and mentally damaging to most employees. As for soldiers in wartime who receive combat pay, it is suggested that such employees be specially compensated for their emotional labor with hypocrisy pay. Another solution is to select only those who are immune to such stress for jobs involving emotional labor—an ideal that probably cannot be achieved in all cases. Another assessment is that such special compensation is unwarranted.     

Admissible and minimax estimators of 363-1363-1363-1in the gamma distribution with truncated parameter space

In this paper we consider asmissible and minimax estimation of the parameter in the gamma distribution with truncated parameter space. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for minimaxity (Theorem 1) and obtain the classes of new minimax and asmissible estimators. The results of the paper can be applied to estimation of parameters in the normal, lognormal, Pareto, generalized gamma, generalized Laplace and other distributions.     

Technology choice bias and limited liability

The effect of limited liability on debt contracts has been analysed as creating the possibility of credit rationing and hence inefficiently low levels of investment. In this paper we instead focus on restrictions on the use of debt finance to avoid moral hazard problems but which add inefficiency by removing management discretion in the investment process. Essentially, the trade-off is between rules and discretion, and can lead to the wrong choice of technology being adopted. It is shown that this inefficient technology can persist in a steady-state competitive equilibrium. The role of venture capitalists is to reduce this inefficiency both by providing equity rather than debt finance and by involvement in the firms management. The latter involvement can counteract other possible agency problems associated with the dilution of the firms equity share.Received: October 2002, Accepted: September 2003, JEL Classification: L1, G2Norman J. Ireland: The author is grateful for comments received on earlier versions of this paper from colleagues and participants of the Industrial Economics Workshop at the University of Warwick, May 2001, and from the editor and referees of this journal.     

Multiple test procedures for arbitrary dependence structures

Under the assumption of arbitrary dependences among the hypotheses and tests, several multiple test procedures are presented which keep a multiple level less than or equal to a given bound under control. For the construction of these procedures a slight modification of the principle of closed test procedures described by Marcus, Peritz and Gabriel (1976) is necessary; then the results of Hommel (1983) can be applied.     

A Quasi-Malmquist Productivity Index

The Malmquist productivity index is based on distance functions, which are reciprocals of radial Debreu-Farrell efficiency measures, and which have a number of desirable properties. Linear programming techniques are frequently employed to calculate the efficiency measures. However these techniques can leave slacks, which constitute a non-radial form of inefficiency which is not incorporated into the analysis. Thus a radial efficiency measure overstates true efficiency, the reciprocal distance function understates the distance to the relevant efficient subset, and the Malmquist productivity index is adversely affected, although in an analytically indeterminate direction. This has led us to consider a new definition of one-sided efficiency, and to develop a new nonradial efficiency measure which incorporates all slacks on the selected side. Replacing conventional radial efficiency measures with our new non-radial efficiency measures generates what we call a quasi-Malmquist productivity index. We illustrate our quasi-Malmquist productivity index with an application to productivity change in Spanish banking.     

Weight Discrimination: A Multidisciplinary Analysis

Protection against obesity discrimination is extremely limited under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). No obese plaintiff has won using the actual disability theory, but a few have won under the perceived disability theory. Weight-related appearance standards are legal. We estimate weight-based wage penalties for young men and women. We find that mildly obese (20% over standard weight) white women experience greater wage penalties than black men experience for weight that is 100% over standard weight. Men do not experience wage penalties until their weight exceeds standard weight by over 100 lb. A gender-plus analysis under Title VII is more appropriate than the ADA for addressing the weight-based wage penalties that women experience.     

On estimating the variance of a finite population

Summary Observing that the estimator for a finite population variance as recommended byLiu [1974a, b] can sometimes become negative, we suggest a few non-negative alternative estimators and note some of their properties. UnlikeLiu we follow the conventional Bayesian approach to get another estimator with an optimal property of uniform admissibility.This paper, however, was prepared when the author worked in the Department of Economic Statistics, University of Sydney.     

Effective participative decision making: A joint responsibility for success

Much of the current research on participative decision making focuses on the increasing need for broad-based decision-making systems, on the different outcomes associated with different forms of participation, or on the problems associated with poorly managed participative decision-making systems. This article considers the responsibilities of employees who participate in organizational decision making and the responsibilities of employers who expect to share decision-making tasks. A Bill of Responsibilities for Employees and a Bill of Responsibilities for Employers are presented. Pitfalls associated with neglecting these responsibilities are discussed.     

Consistency of minimum contrast estimators in non-standard cases

In this paper we investigate the convergence of minimum contrast estimators to certain subsets of a parameter space. By means of these results it is possible to weaken a continuity condition which is usually needed to prove the consistency of maximum likelihood estimators.     

Employee-initiated defamation lawsuits: Organizational responses and dilemmas

The fast-growing category of defamation lawsuits in the United States involves actions by employees against their employers. Over the last decade, the courts have increasingly ruled in favor of the employee plaintiffs, thus creating an employee's right to reputation. This article identifies a variety of responses undertaken by organizations to reduce their legal liability and lessen the likelihood of employee defamation lawsuits. We argue that while organizational actions to reduce their legal liability may appear rational, such responses may also be creating situations in which employers, employees, and the public may be the unintended victims of a law without justice. The article concludes with a discussion of balancing the freedom necessary for managers to communicate about employees and the fairness of that communication.     

Reflections on the Structure and Origin of Pareto Income Distributions

The essay takes the reader on a voyage of exploration with the aim of discovering the origin of Pareto-curves. It shows with thought-experiments backed up by computer-simulation the generation of log-normal curves in detail. Extending forward this conceptual trajectory, it arrives via a quasi-Newtonian fluxion-insight – infinitessimal differential integration – at a novel mathematical concept: Pareto-curves are simply special log-normal curves where a large number of random-factors interacted and impacted at their genesis (the author called it the Kopp-effect).     

Technology and Cost Efficiency in Universal Banking A “Thick Frontier”-Analysis of the German Banking Industry

Using 1992 data of 1490 banks covering about 40% of German banking, we specify a multi-product translog cost function and follow the thick frontier-approach to control for cost inefficiency when evaluating the technology of banking. Scale economies are found to exist up to a size of about 5 billion DM of total assets, with diseconomies being caused by non-operating costs. There is hardly any evidence of economies of scope. Compared to cost inefficiency external factors play a surprisingly strong role in explaining cost differences between high-cost and low-cost banks. Smaller banks turn out to be more responsive to input prices.     

A curtailed test for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution

Summary A procedure is proposed in this paper for testing the shape parameter, of the Weibull distribution. The test statistic which is based on the extremal quotient, possesses a monotone property which makes it possible for rejection earlier than the last planned observation of the null hypothesis,H ₀: =₀ when the alternative hypothesis isH _a: <₀ and early acceptance ofH ₀ whenH _a: >₀. The test being scale-free, does not require the scale parameter to be known.     

Who consults investment analysts?

This paper shows that the questions: Who consults investment analysts? and Who goes to the El Farol bar in Santa Fe? are similar. Thus, investors use a mixed optimal strategy. The demand for consulting services is also characterized.Received: 25 September 2002, Accepted: 26 May 2003, JEL Classification: D81, C70Jacob Paroush: The author is grateful to Yaw Nyarko, Yigal Milchtaich and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Some brief notes on the “unfinished business” of qualitative inquiry

The paper argues that there are a variety of implicit issues in qualitative inquiry that need to be addressed if the area is to develop in some normal science sense. This unfinished business is concerned with a deeper investigation of basic terms that are now simply taken for granted, such as theme and pattern. It also includes the need to develop rules which will assist in making and justifying how qualitative interpretations are made from the implicit processes of inference. Specific suggestions are made for accomplishing these issues.