The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO₂ ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK.     

The use of macroeconomic models in economic policy making: The Norwegian experience

Planning in Norway has a long tradition. The use of models is an integral part of short- and medium-term economic policy administration. A large-scale input-output model, MODIS IV, is used as the short- and medium-term forecasting and planning model. The use of the model secures consistency when analysing the economy. The model is very open in the sense that important interrelations in the economy are left out. The model contains only ‘good’ relations in the Leif Johansen sense of the word. Smaller aggregate and more closed versions of the model are used for analysing policy alternatives. These models contain both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ relations. The use of macroeconomic models is an important aid for proposals regarding economic policy in the Ministry of Finance. Because the whole ministry (with expert help from other ministries) takes an active part in the model work, MODIS IV serves as the centralizing mechanism. It helps to make economists from many ministries go around the same centre, speak the same ‘language’ and organize all relevant information and judgements in a consistent way. Experience shows that ‘numbers discipline’ and force the different arguments on to a higher level of precision.     

An empirical, small scale ‘Traded–Nontraded Goods’ model for New Zealand

In this paper, an empirical model of the traded–nontraded goods model was built in order to examine the effect of various policy variables on the real exchange rate and resulting impacts on the variation in industrial supply, demand and employment levels. This framework was also built to search and simulate alternative policy settings to 1984 economic reforms of New Zealand, that would possibly decrease the short-term adjustment costs of 1984 reforms. It was found that, particularly the output contraction and employment loss in exportable industries, would have been lower if the liberalization in the exportable and importable industries had followed similar timing.     

Measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the UK

The UK Climate Change Bill proposes to establish legally binding targets for a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This paper discusses the challenges posed by measuring progress towards this target. It takes as a premise that the conventional production-based accounting framework, enshrined in the UNFCCC emissions accounting guidelines, is inappropriate for this task because it fails to account for the carbon ‘traded’ across the UK national boundary. Accordingly, it sets out a consumption-based accounting framework – using a two-region Environmental Input–Output (EIO) model – which could in principle measure progress in reducing the emissions attributable to final consumers in the UK. It illustrates the use of this framework to measure the reduction in carbon dioxide achieved by the UK between 1990 (the Kyoto base year) and the year 2004 and compares this against the production perspective. The results indicate that any progress towards the UK's carbon reduction targets (visible under a production perspective) disappears completely when viewed from a consumption perspective. But the robustness of this conclusion depends critically on the accuracy of underlying economic and environmental datasets as well as specific assumptions concerning imports. By analysing the consistency of UK Input–Output data, we conclude that EIO is still some way from being able to answer the critical question of the carbon trade balance for the UK. In these circumstances, measuring real progress towards carbon reduction in the UK remains elusive.     

Semiparametric versus parametric hedonic wine price models: an empirical investigation

In this article, we conduct formal statistical tests to compare a semiparametric hedonic wine price model with its parametric counterpart using a Canadian data set. The relevant test results turn out to be overwhelmingly in favour of the semiparametric specification. The estimated semiparametric model also provides clear evidence of nonlinearity between wine prices and quality when other wine attributes are controlled for.     

A dynamic ecological–economic modeling approach for aquaculture management

This paper presents a Modeling Approach to Resource economics decision-maKing in EcoaquaculTure (MARKET model). The MARKET model was developed as a scenario-testing tool to provide insights on the ecological and economic interactions, which is a critical issue for sustainable aquaculture management. As a case study, the model was applied to simulate shellfish production in an embayment located in the East China Sea. A set of scenarios was used to compare the model outputs with expected trends and to test its capability to simulate relevant management scenarios. The comparison of simulated scenarios indicates that the MARKET model outputs followed the expected trends regarding both standard economic theory for consumption and production, and ecological economic theory. In all the scenarios we tested the area available for aquaculture was found to impose a limitation on production before it became less profitable to expand production. As such, in this case study, the production in the long run does not meet increasing demand. Reduction of the maximum cultivation area was simulated in one of the scenarios as an example of a conservation measure. As expected there was a reduction of the net profit of the farmers compared with the standard simulation. On the other hand, this scenario combined with an increase in price growth rate simulates a compensatory measure that led to a net profit in the same range as observed in the standard simulation. Overall the MARKET model provides insights and raises questions useful for the implementation of an ecosystem approach to aquaculture. Further developments include the simulation of waste generated by cultivated species in order to better support sustainable management objectives.     

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle across EU members: Evidence from the ARDL bounds approach and panel data

This paper addresses the saving-investment (SI) correlation for the EU15 member countries, using the ARDL approach and panel regressions. If we accept the Feldstein–Horioka [Feldstein, M. and C. Horioka, 1980, Domestic saving and international capital flows, Economic Journal 90, 314–329.] interpretation of the SI correlation, the evidence from the ARDL approach does not point to any particular direction in terms of country size, or level of development, or economic and capital market structure. Panel regressions yield an SI coefficient in the range of 0.148–0.157. This finding is attributed to higher capital mobility, lower transaction costs in the international capital markets, and the declining status of long-run current account targeting as a primary government objective.     

The appeals process in principal–agent relationships

The appeals process is employed in many organizations including administrative agencies, regulatory authorities, sports organizations, and private companies. This paper examines the dual role of the appeals process in enhancing fairness and inducing performance in principal–agent relationships in the presence of imperfect performance evaluation. Some surprising results emerge. For example, the merit of the appeals process depends on the agent’s aversion to unfairness, and appeals may be optimally denied even if the appeals process is more accurate than the initial evaluation and is costless. An increase in the accuracy of the initial evaluation may reduce the principal’s welfare. Furthermore, the principal’s welfare can increase as the cost of the appeals process increases.     

MFA model to assess economic and environmental consequences of food production and consumption

Agri-food sector is a crucially important part of the society, because it is a major factor affecting public health and welfare and it also contributes – directly and indirectly – both to the environment and to the national gross product and employment. Improving sustainability of the agri-food sector implies production of nutritionally better food by using fewer inputs and by reducing environmental burden.In reducing environmental burden, it is essential to restrict the material throughput, to identify the hot spots and direct the measures to them. Improving performance of the food sector requires that the benefits and inputs be quantified in an unambiguous way and that the inputs are estimated for the whole production chain. A comprehensive view of the whole system is necessary.Here, the material flow approach (MFA) has been used to describe the Finnish food flux. The quantitative numerical data have been derived from the farm models' data base, and the data have been adjusted so as to comply with the production and consumption statistics of Finland. Using the compiled data an extended input–output model has been constructed. The model allows for the evaluation of some of the economic and environmental consequences, when the structure of food production and the patterns of food consumption are changed. The consequences can be traced within agriculture, within the food sector as a whole, or at the level of the nation-wide economy. In combination with other information the model, thus, serves as a practical tool for planning.The paper at hand gives an overview of the data base and the basic calculation principles of the model. The usability of the model is demonstrated with results from modelling examples, in which the share of organic production or the share of vegetarian food in the average Finnish diet has been increased. The possibilities and restrictions of the approach as well as some of the needs for further development are discussed.The study is the first step in developing MFA methods to analyse and to monitor the material flows of the Finnish food flux. The results have been used also in compiling the Finnish physical input–output tables. The study, thus, contributes to the overall development of the materials flow accounting.     

The Black–Scholes model as a determinant of the implied volatility smile: A simulation study

The paper represents an initial effort to shed light on the determinants of the implied volatility smile in financial (derivative) markets. It fully details the implications of the institutionalization of the Black–Scholes model in an uncertain world populated by individuals who are bounded by the amount of calculation or accounting which is technically possible. Combining model simulations, empirical analysis, and mathematical derivations, the paper proposes that the determinants of the volatility smile might be related to the behavior of traders. In pricing options, they use the widely accepted Black–Scholes formula with a measure of stock volatility that they derive from their subjective beliefs. Moreover, heterogeneity of traders’ beliefs and the way traders update their expectations have nontrivial effects, both on equilibrium prices and on the emergence of the implied volatility smile.     

Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A sensitivity analysis

Krusell et al. in [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] analyzed the capital–skill complementarity hypothesis as an explanation for the behavior of the US skill premium. We refit Krusell et al.'s [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] model with two alternative capital equipment price series: One proposed by Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Krusell, P., 1997. Long-run implications of investment-specific technological change. Amer. Econ. Rev. 87 (3), 342–362] and the official, revised National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data. We find that capital–skill complementarity is preserved, but other results were sensitive to the data used. Specifically, the fit of the model was similar to Krusell et al.'s [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] using the NIPA data, but not the Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Krusell, P., 1997. Long-run implications of investment-specific technological change. Amer. Econ. Rev. 87 (3), 342–362] data. Also, both series produce estimates of the elasticity of substitution between unskilled labor and equipment that are substantially larger than Krusell et al.'s [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] estimates.     

A multivariate innovations state space Beveridge–Nelson decomposition

The Beveridge–Nelson vector innovations structural time series framework is a new formulation that decomposes a set of variables into their permanent and transitory components. The proposed framework is flexible, modelling inter-series relationships and common features in a simple manner. In particular, it is shown that this new specification is simpler than conventional state space and cointegration approaches. The approach is illustrated using a trivariate data set comprising the GDP of Australia, the USA and the UK.     

A Hotelling–Downs model of electoral competition with the option to quit

We study a variant of the multi-candidate Hotelling–Downs model that recognizes that politicians, even after declaring candidacy, have the option of withdrawing from the electoral contest before the election date and saving the cost of continuing campaign. We find that this natural variant significantly alters equilibrium predictions. We give conditions for the existence of an equilibrium for an arbitrary finite number of candidates and an arbitrary distribution of single-peaked preferences of voters. We also provide a partial characterization of the equilibrium outcomes that addresses whether policy convergence can be a feature of equilibrium outcomes when more than two candidates enter the electoral contest.     

Measuring persistence in aggregate output: ARMA models, fractionally integrated ARMA models and nonparametric procedures

Econometric issues in the estimation of persistence in macroeconomic time series are considered. In particular, the relative merits of estimates based on ARMA models, ARFIMA models and nonparametric procedures are investigated. It is shown that ARFIMA models are inappropriate for the purpose of estimating persistence. Furthermore, some of the criticism leveled in the literature against the use of ARMA models for estimating long run properties is put into perspective. Methodological issues arising in the estimation of ARMA models that are relevant to estimation of persistence are discussed. It is shown how overparameterization of an ARMA model may lead to severely downward biased estimates of persistence. The theoretical results are employed to explain some of the findings in Campbell & Mankiw (1987a) and Christiano & Eichenbaum (1990). The methodological aspects of the paper are also relevant for the problem of estimating the value of a spectral density at any given frequency. An empirical study confirms persistence estimates reported in Campbell & Mankiw (1987a), and shows that ARMA models as well as nonparametric procedures give very similar estimates of persistence if properly applied. First version received: May 1996/final version received: March 1998     

Reconciling sustainability and discounting in Cost–Benefit Analysis: A methodological proposal

The incorporation of the intergenerational equity objective has rendered the traditional Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach obsolete for the evaluation of projects presenting an important number of environmental externalities and for those whose impacts extend throughout a long period of time.Based on the assumption that applying a discount rate rewards current consumption and, therefore, that it is only possible to introduce a certain intergenerational equity in a Cost–Benefit Analysis, in this work we propose an approach to discounting based on a different rationale for tangible and intangible effects. We designed two indicators of environmental profitability: a) the Intergenerational Transfer Amount (ITA), which quantifies in monetary units what the current generation is willing to pass on future generations when an environmental restoration project is carried out, and b) the Critical Environmental Rate (CER), measures the implicit environmental profitability.These concepts were tested through an empirical case study pertaining to the assessment of an Erosion Control Project in the southeast of Spain. The results yield traditional profitability indicators that are higher — and probably closer — to the real values set by the contemporary society. The information provided by the environmental profitability indicators proposed renders more transparency to the quantification of the levels of intergenerational equity applied, thereby facilitating the difficult reconciliation of the CBA technique with the objective of sustainability.     

Cournot–Nash equilibria in continuum games with non-ordered preferences

In the usual framework of continuum games with externalities, we substantially generalize Cournot–Nash existence results [Balder, A unifying approach to existence of Nash equilibria, Int. J.Game Theory 24 (1995) 79–94; On the existence of Cournot–Nash equilibria in continuum games, J. Math. Econ. 32 (1999) 207–223; A unifying pair of Cournot–Nash equilibrium existence results, J. Econ. Theory 102 (2002) 437–470] to games with possibly non-ordered preferences, providing a continuum analogue of the seminal existence results by Mas-Colell [An equilibrium existence theorem without complete or transitive preferences, J. Math. Econ. 1 (1974) 237–246], Gale and Mas-Colell [An equilibrium existence theorem for a general model without ordered preferences, J. Math. Econ. 2 (1975) 9–15], Shafer and Sonnenschein [Equilibrium in abstract economies without ordered preferences, J. Math. Econ. 2 (1975) 345–348], Borglin and Keiding [Existence of equilibrium actions and of equilibrium: a note on the “new” existence theorems, J. Math. Econ. 3 (1976) 313–316] and Yannelis and Prabhakar [Existence of maximal elements and equilibria in linear topological spaces, J. Math. Econ. 12 (1983) 233–245].     

DYNAMIC STOCK RETURN–VOLUME RELATION: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING ASIAN MARKETS

This paper empirically examines the dynamic stock return–volume relations for six emerging Asian markets: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. Evidence is found that trading volume Granger causes stock return in quantiles and the causal effects of volume are heterogeneous across quantiles. This shows that volume carries some information to the return and could be interpreted in light of theoretical models. In addition, we find that there is bi‐directional causality between stock return and trading volume in most of the markets. The finding indicates that those Asian emerging markets with different institutions and information flows than more mature markets have present similar causal effects on the stock return–volume relation. Furthermore, the cross‐country evidence shows that the US market helps to predict the returns of the emerging Asian markets.     

Measuring asymmetry and persistence in conditional volatility in real output: evidence from three East Asian tigers using a multivariate GARCH approach

We search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates of three East Asian tigers: Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The widely accepted Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH)-type model is used to capture the existence of asymmetric volatility and the potential structural break points in the volatility. We find evidence of asymmetry and persistence in the volatility of GDP growth rates. It is noted that the structural breakpoints of volatility correspond reasonably well to the historical economic and political events in these economies. Policy implications from our findings are discussed.     

The effect of reforms on employment flexibility in Chinese SOEs, 1980–94

This paper tries to document the increased flexibility in employment relations in Chinese SOEs until 1994, as well as the effects this had on productivity and on the allocation of workers. A number of measures were introduced to enhance such flexibility, such as autonomy in the decision to hire and fire workers, and a new contract status which could at least in theory be terminated. This was aimed at improving the motivation as well as the allocation of workers across firms. Both should have improved the productivity of SOEs. The evidence found, however, indicates that these measures had few effects. This conclusion is based first on turnover data where hardly any change is found. Estimates of productivity and allocative efficiency gains lead to the same conclusion. This confirms the view that the Chinese state sector reforms regarding employment decisions remained very limited in scope until 1994. JEL classification: P23, P31, J63.