Credit booms and busts in emerging markets

We investigate to what extent corporate governance and risk management mitigate the involvement of banks in credit boom and bust cycles. We study a unique, hand‐collected dataset covering 156 banks from Central and Eastern Europe during 2005–2012. We document that stronger risk management is associated with more moderate pre‐crisis credit growth but not with fewer credit losses in the crisis. With respect to bank governance, we find that a higher share of foreign members on the supervisory board is associated with less rapid credit growth in the pre‐crisis period and a lower level of credit losses during the crisis period.     

An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market

This article develops a model-based method to detect booms and busts in the Euro area housing market. A model is constructed and tested, whereby the user cost rate, a demographic variable, unemployment rate, disposable income, debt-to-income ratio and housing stock are fundamental variables significantly explaining house price (HP) developments. Booms/busts are identified as episodes when the HP index exceeds the levels implied by those economic fundamentals. Furthermore, a cross-check with boom/bust episodes based on other methods is carried out to substantiate the results, while the ability of the model in predicting booms/busts in real time is also tested.     

Intertemporal capital substitution and Hayekian booms

Hayek’s business cycle theory portrays monetary expansion and monetary contraction with counterintuitive asymmetry. On the one hand, it suggests that they both change relative prices and cause costly reallocations of production factors. At the same time, the theory predicts that while a monetary contraction causes the economic crisis, the monetary expansion comes with the boom. I argue that what I call intertemporal capital substitution in industries close to final consumption explains why there is a boom in spite of the costly reallocations. More specifically, monetary expansion only gradually increases the demand for nonspecific factors of production by industries that are temporally remote from final consumption. Responding to the expected higher cost of nonspecific factors, consumer-goods industries temporarily increase output and depreciate specific durable production factors faster than they planned.     

教化投资:人力资本投资的新形式

本文针对现有的人力资本理论将人力资本投资形式局限于教育、培训、医疗、保健和迁移,而对其他投资形式关注不足的现实,认为适应于现代经济生活相关的思想观念、价值取向和道德规范,需要相关投入才会形成,这些投入也是人力资本投资不可或缺的形式,笔者将其概括为教化投资。经济转型过程凸显了教化投资的重要性。教化投资增强了人力资本的资源配置能力,在扩大个体人力资本存量的同时,还提升了社会经济价值,增加了社会资本。     

Migration,remittances and human capital investment in Kenya

This paper investigates the relationship between international migration, remittances, and human capital investment in Kenya. We use household‐level data from the 2009 Kenya Migration Household Survey (which was part of the Africa Migration Project) to test our hypothesis and uncover a positive and significant relationship between the amount of international remittances a household receives and the amount of expenditures allocated to education (for all levels of education). We consider various robustness checks and find that our results hold up to various specifications, including an instrumental variable approach.     

养老保险与人力资本投资的研究新进展

自Lucas(1988)以来,许多研究在Samuelson(1958)&Diamond(1965)的世代交叠模型(OLG)的基础上,将养老保险、人力资本投资与经济增长的其他要素相联系进行了理论和应用研究.本文介绍了养老睬险制度与人力资本投资的理论和应用研究的最新成果和进展,指出了理论和应用研究的新趋势,这对于当前我国经济高速发展和社会保障改革进程中的养老金计划和制度的设计将具有重要意义.     

Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment

Theories of irreversible investment suggest a negative relation between investment and uncertainty, and nonlinear adjustment costs open for asymmetries in the adjustment of fixed capital. We propose an econometric modelling approach to estimate and test the key predictions of modern investment theory, including asymmetric dynamics and various uncertainty indicators. Our application on a data set from the oil industry offers empirical support for both asymmetric dynamics and uncertainty in oil and gas investment.     

Parental investment in children's human capital in urban China

The present study tests the extent of parental forgone consumption used instead to invest in children's human capital by use of intrahousehold resource allocation models. Using an unusual, comprehensive data set for urban China, there is more spending on boys aged 13 to 15 but more on girls aged 16 to 18, suggesting that standard human capital theories and traditional perceptions of gender bias do not completely explain educational expenditure decisions. The evidence from urban China is consistent, though, with human capital models which consider parental intertemporal preferences. Also, the findings suggest that the perceived bias in favour of sons exists weakly in contemporary urban China.     

Education policies,pre-college human capital investment and educated unemployment

Journal of Economics - This paper employs a search and matching model featuring endogenous pre-college human capital investment to examine how education policies, such as subsidies, scholarships,...     

Efficiency and sharing of investment in specific human capital under risk aversion

This paper analyses the investment behavior of a risk-averse worker who searches for other jobs in a two-period model. It will be shown that given an appropriate investment technology, the worker will invest in specific human capital efficiently if his investment costs and return can be shared with some parties. The presence of sharing allows the worker to invest efficiently without being affected by his risk aversion since he can adjust his share of the investment in a way compatible with his attitude towards risk.     

Controlling endogenous fluctuations of human capital investment in an OLG economy

A bifurcation occurs when there is a sudden qualitative or topological change in the behavior of the original system by varying one or more parameters (the bifurcation parameters) of the original system. Bifurcation can cause unacceptable new conditions or instability in the economy system. Its control is done by designing a controller input, thereby achieving desirable dynamical behavior. This paper deals with the control of a bifurcation caused by a rise in information costs in a human capital investment model. By employing the delayed feedback control (DFC) method, unstable fluctuations stemming from the system can be controlled without changing its original properties. In addition, we show the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed methods in the system with explicit functions.     

Social security incentives,human capital investment and mobility of labor

Migration between countries with earnings-related and flat-rate pay-as-you-go social security systems may change human capital investments in both countries. The possibility of emigration boosts investments in human capital in the country with flat-rate benefits. Correspondingly, those expecting to migrate from the country with earnings-related benefits to a country with flat-rate benefits may reduce their investment in education. Allowing for migration may generate an intertemporal Pareto-improvement with cross-border transfers, and the contribution rates satisfying certain conditions. However, these conditions are not satisfied with those contribution rates that would arise if the governments maximize the welfare of their citizens without migration.     

农村人力资本高等教育投资的影响因素探析

高等教育阶段,影响农村人力资本投资的因素很多,包括农村居民收入的低水平循环增长、教育机会的不均等、农村家庭高等教育投资与收益的不对称和农村人力资本高等教育收益率较低等。     

Corporate planning and capital investment

Based on interviews with corporate managers and reviews of corporate planning documents, corporate planning and implementation processes related to capital investment are examined in four large corporations. From the examination, models are developed and estimated on corporate plans and actual outcomes to explain corporate forecasts of capital investment, forecasts of changes in debt, and actual capital investment. The results of both the qualitative and quantitative data analyses are summarized and a new conceptual framework for the determinants of corporate capital investment is proposed.     

Government investment in natural capital

This paper presents a new approach to the measurement of natural capital. A distinguishing feature of this approach is the use of investment criteria that are consistent with the main features of physical capital, thus maintaining consistency in the measurement of different types of capital. This new approach was applied to the expenditures of the federal government in Canada as recorded in the Public Accounts for fiscal year 2004-05. My results indicate that, in 2004-05, total investment in natural capital by the federal government amounted to 2.6% of net budgetary expenditures. Spending on physical capital, the only component that is currently included as investment in the National Accounts, represented only 5% of total investment in natural capital.     

Real option,human capital investment returns and higher educational policy

This paper incorporates the concept of real option into a modified Harris–Todaro model to investigate the relationship between higher education and unemployment rates. We found that the real option value of waiting to invest in graduate school education will decrease when the expected wage rate of labors with an undergraduate degree becomes relatively lower than that with a graduate degree. As a result, more undergraduate students will decide to go to graduate schools immediately after graduation. As the supply of labors with a graduate degree increases and the job creations fail to meet the increasing demand, those who cannot get a graduate-level job will be willing to accept job offers lower than their education level. Our modified Harris–Todaro model shows that it will lead to an increase in the number of unemployed and underemployed higher educated labors. This explains why the unemployment rates for higher educated labor are relatively high in some developed countries.     

Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment

A recent literature explores the macroeconomic implications of organizational capital (OC) and especially its ability to resolve discrepancies between existing models and data. This paper contributes to the OC literature by studying the effect of OC on international investment flows in the context of a two-country real business cycle model. The presence of OC introduces novel considerations into agents’ investment decisions since current investment and future productivity levels are positively linked. These new considerations help bring the model closer to the data. In response to a productivity shock in one country, investment increases in both countries, producing positive international co-movement in investment, a feature of the data that several IRBC models fail to produce.     

Analysing wage differentials when workers maximize the return to human capital investment

The analysis of the determinants of differences in wages across workers has traditionally relied on the estimation of average earnings functions. In this article, we propose a new theoretical model where it is the workers who decide the amount they wish to invest in human capital, taking into account the costs of acquiring those skills, for the purpose of maximizing earnings. In this model, both human capital and marginal productivity are likely to be influenced by the individual’s (unobserved) characteristics such as ability or motivation, potentially giving rise to endogeneity problems. In this context, the empirical implementation of our theoretical model allows us, under certain assumptions, to obtain consistent estimates even under the assumption of endogeneity. We present an empirical application to the education sector using data from the Spanish Structure of Earnings Survey 2010. Our results show that females and workers in the private education sector face more difficulties in achieving their maximum potential wage.