Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.     

Diffusion of a new product under network effects: the US DVD market

We formulate a model that captures the inter-dependence between hardware demand and software supply – indirect network effect – in the DVD industry. The identification of the network effect comes from the difference in software availability across two different formats: VHS and DVD. We find that a 1% increase in the number of DVD titles raises the demand for DVD players by 0.87%. Simultaneously, a 1% increase in video player ownership leads to a 0.14% increase in the variety of video titles. Our simulations show that hardware manufacturers might be able to internalize the network externality to increase total industry revenues.     

小排量汽车的市场前景探究

随着油价的不断攀升，燃油经济性问题已经成为消费者购车最关注的问题。目前，节能、环保型小排量汽车已成为消费者关注的热点。在建立节约型社会的今天，关于小排量汽车的各种论述也成为热门话题。本文分析小排量汽车的价格、替代品、互补品的价格以度消费税，消费者偏好等影响小排量汽车需求的因素，运用需求函数从理论上探究小排量汽车的市场前景。     

The emergence of the outsourcing market and product technological performance

This study is a novel empirical endeavor to analyze the impact of market demand and product technological performance on the growth of industry's outsourcing activities. Using the laptop computer industry as an example, this study examines the connection between the growth of outsourcing activities and product technological performance as well as market demand. The results suggest that, in addition to the relative efficiency assumed from transaction cost economies, the products' technological performance and market demand might also influence the growth of industry's outsourcing activities.     

Price effects of the euro cash changeover: the role of product market competition

The euro cash changeover that took place in 2002 in 12 countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union was associated with abnormal price increases in most member countries. This paper investigates the influence of product market competition on the size of the changeover-related prices hikes, showing that the price hikes were less prevalent in countries with a higher level of competition. For the countries that are to join the euro area in coming years, this means that fostering competition can help contain changeover-related price increases. This aspect is of particular importance for the most recent and next wave of euro adopters, because of their rather heavy product market regulation as measured by the OECD, which are likely to restrain competition. The results indicate that comprehensive reform efforts can be more beneficial in containing changeover-related price hikes than a selective easing of product market regulation in a subset of areas.     

Segmenting the market: The monopolist's optimal product mix

In an industry producing products which differ in quality, to consumers who vary in their willingness to pay, it may happen that only a bounded number of producers can coexist at (noncooperative price) equilibrium; in other words, the industry is a natural oligopoly. We are here concerned with a special example, in which only one producer can survive. Our focus of interest in the present paper is to examine this monopolist's optimal product range. Depending on the dispersion of consumers' willingness to pay (income), either (i) the monopolist will find it optimal to segment the market completely, offering the maximum number of products permitted or (ii) the monopolist will offer only a single product. The precise nature of this switch of policy, which occurs at a certain critical distribution of consumer incomes (willingness to pay), is explored fully.     

The product market opportunity loss of mandated disclosure

In the interests of protecting decision makers in the financial markets, the Securities and Exchange Commission requires publicly traded companies to publicly disclose certain accounting information. Such disclosure requirements however create a potential opportunity loss. They may destroy firms’ opportunities for implementing an alternative information acquisition and exchange regime – one that would optimize the firms’ product market profits. Nevertheless, we show that despite the previous imposition of an opportunity loss, firms may still favor future increased disclosure requirements. Finally, when information cost declines, although firms’ welfare may decrease, their desire for increased disclosure requirements always strengthens.     

The role of product market regulations in the process of structural change

The sectoral allocation of labor differs considerably across developed economies, even in the presence of similar patterns of structural change. A general equilibrium model that captures the stylized facts of structural change is presented. In this framework, economy-wide product market regulations hinder the development of dynamic sectors such as service industries. This is consistent with the negative cross-country relationship between product market regulations and the service employment share, discussed in the paper. Additionally, the model suggests that higher service prices and rents in regulated economies reduce labor supply, providing a rationale for the negative association between product market regulations and the employment rate previously found in the literature.     

A model of the used car market with lemons and leasing

This article extends Kim's (1985 Kim, J-C. 1985. The market for lemons reconsidered: a model of the used car market with asymmetric information. American Economic Review, 75: 836–43.  [Google Scholar]) model of the used car market with asymmetric information to examine the possible impacts of leasing and Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) programs on the average quality of traded used cars in the market. The author assumed that a consumer can buy or lease a new car, or he/she can buy a used or a CPO car. While, like Kim (1985 Kim, J-C. 1985. The market for lemons reconsidered: a model of the used car market with asymmetric information. American Economic Review, 75: 836–43.  [Google Scholar]), the author assumed that the quality of a car depends on the maintenance level, the maintenance level in this model is chosen when a car is still a ‘new’ car, i.e. after the warranty ends. The model implied that the average quality of traded used cars can be either higher or lower than the average quality of nontraded used cars. The study also found that leasing and CPO have substantially improved the information mechanism between buyers and sellers of used cars, which, in turn, has helped reduce adverse selection and improved the average quality of traded used cars in the market.     

"控规"背景下的房地产市场定位体系

2006年5月29日,国务院办公厅转发建设部等九部委《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》,量化了房地产新建住房结构的比例,这对近期房地产项目必将带来很大的影响.原有规划的调整不可避免,市场定位及营销策划等项目运作将被打乱."控规"背景下,房地产企业营销策划寻求有效的市场定位模式.仍是企业运作的重中之重.     

Examining technological competition between BMW and Hyundai in the Korean car market

The Korean car market has increased in size. BMW and Hyundai are the top-ranked imported and domestic vehicle brands in Korea, respectively. Thus, it is important to understand these companies and the Korean car market, because technology is most significant in the vehicle industry. In this paper, we compare BMW with Hyundai from the technological perspective. Our research is focused on an analysis of the technological competition between BMW and Hyundai based on their developed technologies. We use all BMW and Hyundai patents from worldwide patent databases to analyse the two companies’ technologies. In addition, we apply statistical methods and machine learning algorithms to the patent analysis. In our conclusion, we show the technological differences and competition between BMW and Hyundai, and find their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

“控规”背景下的房地产市场定位体系

2006年5月29日,国务院办公厅转发建设部等九部委《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》,量化了房地产新建住房结构的比例,这对近期房地产项目必将带来很大的影响。原有规划的调整不可避免,市场定位及营销策划等项目运作将被打乱。“控规”背景下,房地产企业营销策划寻求有效的市场定位模式,仍是企业运作的重中之重。     

The effects of intelligence on price discovery and market efficiency

The influence of speculation on market performance has long been discussed. Under the framework of bounded rationality in which traders are endowed with different intelligence levels in terms of different learning styles or different representations of intelligence, we examine the effects of traders’ intelligence on price discovery based on “intraday” data, and market efficiency. We find that intelligence does help improve market performance. However, the influence of different intelligence levels on the market crucially depends on the characteristics of learning styles or the representation of intelligence.     

Technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features

The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go through continuous evolution determined by the cumulative changes in the features of new product models. This is manifested in the diffusion of new product features and in the increasingly vague boundaries between different product generations. This article develops an approach for planning and forecasting technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features. This is achieved by isolating the phenomena underlying the evolution process, and formulating the process at the product category, product feature, and product model levels. The approach is derived from these formulations combining the primarily demand-driven product category diffusion and product unit replacement behaviour, and the more supply-driven product feature dissemination. The approach enables meaningful sensitivity analysis including the analysis of discontinuities. The developed approach is applied to characterise the evolution of an example product category of mobile handsets and to forecast the diffusion of mobile handset features using extensive longitudinal and cross-sectional data collected from Finland. In consequence, the process of technology product evolution and the phenomenon of product feature dissemination are suggested as extensions to research on product category diffusion and replacement.     

The impact of product market competition on training provision: Evidence from Canada

While standard models of training focus on how input market affects firms' training decisions, this paper investigates the impact of product market competition on training provision. Using the longitudinal data from Statistics Canada's Workplace and Employee Survey, we find that increased competition is strongly associated with more training provision. This association is unlikely to be driven by unobserved heterogeneity, specific measures used and other relevant factors. To the extent that training is a significant source of human capital and industry competitiveness, our results suggest that increasing training is an important channel through which competition raises productivity.     

Price differentials in a homogenous product market: The case of water

This paper examines the existing price differentials for raw water along the Rio Grande. An extremely active spot market for this good, more than 926 transactions have been made over a five-year time period. Statistical analysis shows a significant difference between the price paid for water by irrigators or municipalities and industry. Even if price differentials did exist at the beginning, convergence would be expected over time for this homogenous good. However, statistical analysis shows no sign of convergence. Investigations have suggested that differentials may continue to exist due not to the lack of information, but to misinformation.     

The effects of market organization on conspiracies in restraint of trade

Mindful of the market structure-conduct-performance paradigm fundamental to industrial organization research, this paper uses laboratory experimental techniques to study the impact of conspiratorial opportunities on market performance. We compare ‘posted-offer’ markets where sellers (but not buyers) are all conspiratorial opportunities with observations from three control groups: (1) posted-offer markets without conspiratorial opportunities, (2) ‘double-auction’ markets with conspiratorial opportunities and (3) posted-offer markets with true single-seller monopolists. The basic conclusions generated by our experimental design are: (1) seller conspiracies in posted-offer markets tend to raise prices (but not profits) relative to similarly organized markets without conspiracies, (2) posted-offer conspiracies tend to generate higher prices (but not profits) than double-auction conspiracies, and (3) posted-offer monopolies tend to generate higher profits (but not prices) then posted-offer conspiracies.