The social mastery of technology : An agenda for research and action

This article reports on the symposium on the ‘Social Mastery of Technology’ (MASTECH) organized by the CNRS Industrial Economics Research Group and the Maison Rhône-Alpes des Sciences de l'Homme in Lyon, France, 9–12 September 1991, under the patronage of UNESCO, which was a major innovation among scientific communities in the area of human sciences.     

The ethnographic futures research method: An application to Thailand

Ethnographic Futures Research (EFR) is a method invented in 1976 which futures researchers employing a sociocultural approach can use with a sample of interviewees to elicit their perceptions and preferences among possible and probable alternative futures for their society and culture. EFR is an adaptation of the spirit and method of cultural anthropology and ethnography to the needs and constraints of futures research.     

A new logical model for futures research

The author argues against traditional logic based on unidirectional causality and classical physics because it has led planners and policy makers to believe that universality and homogeneity are desirable goals for society. Biological and social processes have been shown to thrive on complexity and heterogeneity and this approach to futures research should be developed further.     

Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives

This paper focuses on the cyclical and iterative processes of action research and their usefulness in enabling participants in futures work to expand their images of futures. The author has been developing a participatory method of scenario development, based on action research, using cycles within cycles, thus allowing multiple opportunities for reflection and reperception. Because people can find it difficult to perceive their potential futures, to examine possibilities from different angles can clarify problems and help participants develop their reactions to various futures. This paper presents a case study of the new method, working through a series of cycles with a credit union, arguing that a cycles-within-cycles-within-cycles process has the potential to help make explicit the concealed and subconscious forces affecting the future of the participants' social entity.     

Metaphors in futures research

This special issue, as might be expected in a networked world, searching for proof that collaboration can work, is edited by four of us. It began with a conversation in 2014 over bland conference food in Helsinki between Osmo Kuusi, Matti Minkkinen and Sohail Inayatullah about the need to highlight metaphors in futures research. We noted that while extensively used, they remain inadequately theorized and lacking mindfulness. Further conversations between Inayatullah and Aleksandra Izgarjan focused the issue. We introduce the special issue with short openings by each one of us, theorizing in a biographical context. These are followed by a summary of the articles, essays, and reports, written by Minkkinen. Our intent is not just to focus on metaphors in futures research, but as well to see futures research as narrative-based itself: as not just describing reality and possibility but creating new worlds, on opening up of shared pathways.     

A systemic evaluation framework for futures research

Evaluation of futures studies is a topic that has frequently aroused discussion. Futures studies often deal with great societal or strategic business issues, and thus the validity and reliability of the results is of great interest to stakeholders. Existing literature contains discussions of such important issues as ethics of futures studies, the nature of knowledge about the future, and futures methodology, which together contribute to the quality, validity and credibility of futures studies, but discussion on the evaluation of futures studies is more scant.Thus, the main research question that guides our study is: “how should we evaluate futures studies to ensure the reliability and credibility of the results?” We answer the question by deriving a systemic framework for evaluation following the input-process-output schema to ensure that the whole chain from the data to reporting and implementation contributes to the quality and impact of the study.The main contribution is the systemic evaluation framework. The framework will contribute to the evaluation of existing and ongoing studies by offering guidelines for evaluation, and as a net effect, we propose, it will increase the impact of futures studies by making the practices more transparent and thus generating more confidence in the results.     

Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

Key account management in financial services: An outline research agenda

The forces of deregulation and technological development have created a highly competitive environment in financial services. Despite the quest for business-to-business service efficiency, most financial services companies know that they must not lose sight of the importance of relationship quality. As a result, there is growing interest in key account management (KAM) in these companies. Research on KAM in general is limited and little has been undertaken in financial services. There are several reasons why KAM practice in financial services may be distinctive: the regulatory environment; the sector's size and diversity; the high degree of intermediation; product diversity and complexity; uncertainty of product performance; the problem of measuring profitability; the challenges of interactive marketing using both traditional face-to-face and complementary direct marketing techniques; and the role of technology in delivery. A research agenda for KAM in financial services is proposed. It is argued that more knowledge in this area would be of benefit to customer relationship management (CRM) research and to practising managers implementing KAM.     

Views on futures research methodology

Roy Amara identifies new directions for futures research methodology. Emphasis is placed on validation and quality criteria for futures studies, and a set of initial criteria is outlined—plausibility, reproducibility, and explicitness of values and impacts. Such criteria should be guidelines rather than formalistic straightjackets.     

New directions for futures research —setting the stage

Futures research is currently in a state of abeyance and may well be approaching a critical crossroad. In order to survive it needs to dispense with its tendency to be ‘all things to all people’, dealing with almost any activity that involves the future, and define for itself a unique and synthesizing role within a larger forecasting and planning framework. The primary focus of futures research in the next decade should be in the public sector where the need is greater, however a clear separation must be maintained between its advocacy (value-driven) activities and those that are conceptual and analytical.     

Cultural futures for thailand: An ethnographic enquiry

The author outlines an ethnographic and cultural approach developed during a study of Thailand's future-a study which necessitated different approaches from those commonly used in futures research in dealing with the developed world. The study was based on interviews with Thais currently living in California and shows widespread agreement among the interviewees, particularly on the possibility of large-scale violence in Thailand in the 1980s.     

Prompting transdisciplinary research: Promising futures for using the performance metaphor in research

Transdisciplinary research is increasingly recognised as important for investigating and addressing ‘wicked’ problems such as climate change, food insecurity and poverty, but is far from commonplace. There are structural impediments to transdisciplinarity such as university structures, publication requirements and funding preferences that perpetuate disciplinary differences and researchers often lack transdisciplinary experience and expertise. In this paper we present a heuristic that aims to encourage researchers to think about their current research as performance and then imagine different performances, with the view to encouraging reflection and creativity about the transdisciplinary potential and dilemmas. The heuristic is inspired by the metaphor of performance that Erving Goffman uses to understand everyday, face-to-face interactions. The heuristic includes scaffolding for imagining research as performance through a transdisciplinary lens, a suggested process for using the tool, and examples based on the every day research projects. The paper describes the application of the heuristic in a graduate masterclass, reflecting on whether it does indeed ‘prompt’ transdisciplinary research. Limitations and lessons learned for further refinement of the heuristic are also included. The authors conclude that the heuristic has a range of uses including for self-reflection, and as a practical learning tool that can also be used at the start of integrative research projects.     

Extending the perimeter of reflexive debate on futures research: An open framework

Theoretical and methodological crossover between the field of Futures Studies and environmental research has proven instrumental in understanding environmental long-term dynamics. However, the scale taken today by studies and research on such dynamics creates a new challenge for futurists and environmental scientists, as many set patterns of thought or research in both communities will have to be re-examined. For futurists, it will be necessary to go beyond attempts to standardize Futures Studies methods. The alternative is to promote theoretical and methodological reflexion within the rapidly expanding life-size (and not workshop size) fora of scholarly and policy debate. It will also mean overcoming the regime of metonymical hustle whereby once and again, a new school of thought tries to redefine the entire field and reduce it to its own purpose, concepts and toolkit. This paper proposes an “open” framework as a guide for each study on futures to make explicit the specific and fundamental choices it rests on. It is meant as an invitation to step back and consider new beginnings in a workspace open to the widest possible diversity and scale of approaches, as will be necessary if studies on futures are to rise to the challenges of research for sustainable development.     

Time-scales in futures research and forecasting

In this article a study is presented of the ways in which some well-known futurists have considered time-scales in their central works, looking too at a few frequently applied forecasting methodologies. It is found, that there is obviously yet no common view of the extent of the time ahead meant for the terms future and futures and in using the time-horizon specifications, such as short-term and long-term. A survey of how time-scales are taken note of and presented in individual futures research articles is also given.On the basis of the study and survey made, the conclusions list three recommendations, which could be taken into consideration in futures studies.     

Gendered society, gendered futures research

New fields of research, new approaches and branches of science enrich the scientific world-view and scientific toolbox. Below I employ concepts developed for a newcomer to the domain of science, feminist and women's research, in the field of futures research. The distinction between biological sex and sociocultural gender is a useful conceptual device. The sociocultural woman's or man's role is distinguished from being a biological woman or man. With the help of this distinction feminists have shown that, especially in science, there is a dominant male mode of thinking, which they call ‘the male bias'. The male bias in Western futures research gets its extreme expression in the forecasting approach. There are, though, early efforts to develop ‘female futures research' from practical work with women's futures to theoretical and utopian considerations. The female approach is but an embryo and should be developed further. To begin is to understand the dilemma.