The optimal composition of foreign exchange reserves

This paper presents a model for selecting an optimal foreign exchange reserves portfolio for semi-industrial and developing countries, using the mean—approach. The model described here focuses on the relationship between the composition of reserves and that of imports, as well as the impact of return and risk of the investments in each currency. The empirical importance of these factors is demonstrated by investigating the optimal policy for Israel in the period 1972–1976. In comparing the actual and the efficient portfolio of different groups of countries, we find that profit considerations play a greater role in semi-industrial and developing countries than in industrial ones.     

The arrival of the Euro and its implications for Asia

The third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) commenced on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the European single currency, the euro. The first round of participants comprises 11 of the 15 European Union (EU) nations, dubbed “Euroland.” The potential implications of EMU for Asia are immense. The euro's emergence as an international currency and its impact on Asia can be assessed in 3 different domains: (1) as a medium of exchange for Europe's trade with Asia; (2) as a store of value in stocks and bonds in world capital markets; and (3) as part of official foreign exchange reserves of Asian central banks. Our analysis suggests that there is potential for the euro to play a bigger role in EU-Asia trade links, which will be underpinned by the collective importance of Euroland as a much-enlarged trading and investment partner for Asia. However, in the short term at least, Asian equity markets are unlikely to benefit from significant inflows of capital from the EU as the former have been decimated by the region's financial crisis. As for Asian bond markets, rapid deterioration of sovereign ratings of countries in the region over the past 12 months would make it difficult for Asian companies to raise funds through euro-denominated debt instruments. As for official foreign exchange reserves, the bulk of Asian reserves is currently held in US dollar assets. Judging from Asian trade and debt figures, it seems unlikely that the euro would challenge the US dollar as a reserve currency any time in the near future. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the euro's introduction could make it easier for Asian central banks to diversify their reserves from the greenback to the euro. The internationalization of the euro is likely to happen only gradually, whether in terms of international trade denomination and settlement, denominating international financial assets, or as a reserve currency. Since the magnitude of shock that the single European currency would bring to the international monetary system is still unknown, only very tentative conclusions for the impact on Asian countries can be drawn at this point in time.     

Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding

The sizeable hoarding of international reserves by several East Asian countries has been frequently attributed to a modern version of monetary mercantilism – hoarding international reserves in order to improve competitiveness. From a long‐run perspective, manufacturing exporters in East Asia adopted ‘financial’ mercantilism – subsidising the cost of capital – during decades of high growth. They switched to hoarding large international reserves when growth faltered, making it harder to disentangle the monetary mercantilism from the precautionary response to the heritage of past financial mercantilism. Monetary mercantilism also lowers the cost of hoarding, but may be associated with negative externalities leading to competitive hoarding. From this viewpoint, this paper makes three observations on the East Asian reserve accumulation. First, the recent large hoarding of reserves in Japan and Korea occurred in the aftermath of the growth strategy that combined export promotion and credit subsidisation (financial mercantilism). Second, whether the ultimate motive is mercantilist or precautionary, the ongoing reserve hoarding in Asia contains an element of competitive hoarding, which is likely to have negative externalities among countries involved. Finally, China's hoarding of reserves partly reflects the precaution against the financial fragility that is likely to follow the slowing of economic growth.     

International strategy’s effects on retailers’ local implementation and performance

Retailers dynamically expand abroad and strategically seek local performance because their business is local. However, knowledge of the contribution of retail firms’ international strategies to subsidiaries’ local performance is limited. Based on the prominent I/R strategy framework, the authors conceptualize integration/responsiveness as the transfer/local generation of firm-specific advantages and analyze (direct and indirect) paths of varying degrees of I/R via local implementation decisions to performance. Because retailers’ firm-specific advantages have a limited geographic reach, different successful paths are expected in close and distant countries. Empirically, a survey based on face-to-face-interviews with 126 retail CEOs and expansion managers, partial least squares structural equation modelling and bootstrapping-based mediation analyses were conducted. The results reveal only indirect paths of international strategy to local performance through local standardization/centralization. Unique insights into the paths of firm? strategy to subsidiary performance emerge, such as important tradeoffs between superior paths in close countries.     

From international new ventures to MNCs: Crossing the chasm effect on internationalization paths

This paper explores the market expansion path of knowledge-based international new ventures (KINVs) toward multinational corporations (MNCs) over time and identifies relevant enabling factors. Integrating crossing the chasm and international new venture (INV) theories, we analyzed international expansion paths of four KINVs headquartered in three countries (the U.S., Japan, and Israel). Based on trademark data, triangulated by both sales data and primary interviews of corporate executives, we proposed an integrative framework to examine the effect of crossing the chasm on market expansion paths towards MNCs. Our findings suggest that KINVs that cross the chasm in lead market are more likely to become MNCs. Our studies also identify several important factors that enable KINVs toward MNCs; these enabling factors include firm-specific assets and capabilities (e.g., proven products, R&D expertise, intellectual property assets, brands and reputation), partnership with leading customers, and collaborators built during the dynamic process of crossing the chasm.     

The bargaining relationship between foreign mnes and host governments in latin america

The relationship between international firms and national governments can usefully be understood in terms of bargaining theory. This article develops an explicit model of the bargaining relationship, using the level of regulation as a measure of bargaining power. The model is tested with data from a survey of multinational enterprise subsidiaries in seven Latin American countries. The evidence supports hypotheses that (1) firms are less regulated when they are technology-intensive, when they operate larger scale affiliates, and when they export more from the local affiliate; and (2) firms are more regulated when they operate in larger countries and when they have a larger local market share. These findings demonstrate the importance of the government—business relationship as a multidimensional process and offer support for the explicit framework employed here.     

International reserves and the global financial crisis

This study examines whether pre-crisis international reserve accumulations, as well as exchange rate and reserve policy decisions made during the global financial crisis, can help to explain cross-country differences in post-crisis economic performance. Our approach focuses not only on the total stock of official reserves held by countries, but also on the decisions by governments to purchase or sell reserve assets during the crisis period. We introduce new data made available through the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) Reserve Template, which allow us to distinguish interest income and valuation changes in the stock of official reserves from the actively managed component of reserves. We use this novel data to gage how (and whether) reserve accumulation policies influenced the economic and financial performance of countries during and after the global crisis. Our findings support the view that higher reserve accumulations prior to the crisis are associated with higher post-crisis GDP growth.     

Performance implications of store format diversification for international retailers

Abstract

International retailers face formidable tasks in trying to replicate, or improve upon, their home country success abroad. Their market-seeking efforts sometimes require strategic diversifications of their store format portfolios capable of serving customers in different host countries. In this study, we examine whether the degree of store format diversification helps improve the performance of international retailers. We also assess the possible moderating effects of three factors—internationalization speed, political distance, and cultural distance—on this relationship. Utilizing 2001–2015 panel data for 19 retailers originating from several home countries and operating in multiple host countries, we employ a fixed effects model to examine the hypothesized relationships. Our results show that the performance of international retailers is influenced negatively by store format diversification. This relationship is moderated by internationalization speed and political distance, but not by cultural distance.     

Demographic implications of autocentric development

The German politicologist Dieter Senghaas reached in his recently published book¹ the conclusion that the attempt to integrate the developing countries with the international economic system as it exists at present is bound to work out to the detriment of the developing countries — that it can only result in their “structural disablement“². Dissociation from the present system of international division of labour and origination of an “autocentric development“ offered to the developing countries their only chance of arresting the previously analysed deformation process and embarking on genuine development³. This model however comes up against demographic obstacles.     

Equilibrium parallel import policies and international market structure

In a North–South vertically differentiated duopoly we analyze (i) the effects of parallel import (PI) policies on price competition and (ii) the interdependence of national PI policies. Prices can be higher in the North if both countries permit PIs relative to when only the South does. If governments maximize national welfare and demand asymmetry across countries is sufficiently large, the North forbids PIs to ensure its firm sells in the South and international price discrimination — the South's most preferred market outcome — obtains. When demand structures are relatively similar across countries, the North permits PIs and uniform pricing — its most preferred outcome — results.     

The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment

Evidence on international capital flows suggests that foreign direct investment (FDI) is less volatile than other financial flows. To explain this finding I model international capital flows under the assumptions of imperfect enforcement of financial contracts and inalienability of FDI. Imperfect enforcement of contracts leads to endogenous financing constraints and the pricing of default risk. Inalienability implies that it is not as advantageous to expropriate FDI relative to other flows. These features combine to give a risk sharing advantage to FDI over other capital flows. This risk sharing advantage of FDI translates into a lower default premium and lower sensitivity to changes in a country’s financing constraint.The model offers the new implication that financially constrained countries should borrow relatively more through FDI. This is because FDI is harder to expropriate and not because FDI is more productive or less volatile. Using several creditworthiness and country risk ratings to measure financing constraints, I present new evidence linking FDI and financing constraints. Moreover, numerical simulations of the model generate stronger serial correlation for FDI than for other flows into developing countries. This corroborates the view that non-FDI flows are more short-term and more likely to change direction.     

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign's willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs.     

Economic stagnation and development aid

The main objectors to a link being established between special drawing rights (SDRs) and the financing of development have in the past been the industrial countries. They have been pointing out that SDRs were created for other purposes — more effective control over international liquidity — and that a link with development finance would have an inflationary effect. If however the present unemployment situation in the industrial countries should become at least partly a permanent feature the idea of such a link would become more attractive than hitherto — to the industrial countries.     

Strategic ambidexterity and performance in international new ventures

We drew on the literature on ambidextrous organizations to propose that international new ventures (INVs) that concurrently pursue paradoxical pairs of strategies—known as the capability of strategic ambidexterity—can achieve superior performance. These paradoxical strategies are: (a) few investments and many countries, and (b) standardization and innovation. Our hypotheses were tested using data from 70 Canadian INVs. This is the first study that attempts to theoretically and empirically link ambidexterity and INV performance. Our findings suggest that INVs that are capable of pursuing and implementing paradoxical strategies achieve superior performance over those lacking such capability. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Special drawing rights and development aid

The introduction of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) has not fulfilled the wishes of the LDCs. Whereas the industrialised countries look upon SDRs simply as international liquidity reserves, LDCs aim at the linking of SDRs with development aid. Is their concept really as out of place as the industrialised countries maintain it is?     

人民币升值能否改变贸易顺差与外汇储备增长的趋势

本文综合运用ADF检验、Granger因果检验、Johansen检验、VEC模型、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法,分别截取1982-2007年间中国贸易顺差与外汇储备增额年度流量指标和2005年7月-2008年9月间人民币对美元汇率与中国贸易顺差月度流量指标进行实证研究,结果发现:(1)中国贸易顺差与外汇储备增额互为因果;(2)中国贸易顺差与外汇储备增额之间存在协整关系;(3)中国贸易顺差与外汇储备增额之间的相关系数为正,且相关系数变化图大致呈‘U’字形;(4)USD/RMB与中国贸易顺差之间存在协整关系;(5)USD/RMB与中国贸易顺差无因果关系;(6)USD/RMB与中国贸易顺差之间的相关系数较小。本文结论如下:(1)贸易顺差是中国外汇储备增长的主要来源,且近年来贸易顺差对中国外汇储备的贡献越来越大;(2)中国外贸依存度过高;(3)USD/RMB对中国贸易顺差影响较小,故人民币升值不能改变中国贸易顺差和外汇储备快速增长的趋势。弹性理论分析表明中国贸易顺差增大的原因是:(1)中国出口商品弹性小;(2)中国内需不足。故此提出以下建议:(1)加速启动内需,特别是农民消费;(2)调整对外贸易产业结构;(3)促使人民币真正‘弹’起来。     

Chinese FDI in New Zealand: What Are Chinese Investors Looking For?

In recent years, there has been unparalleled growth in outward foreign direct investment from China. Traditional Western‐dominated international business theory proposes that asset exploitation is necessary for firms undertaking foreign investment. However, more recently, studies suggest asset augmentation is more important for multinational enterprises from emerging countries. This article examines the acquisition by two Chinese firms—Agria and Haier—of two iconic New Zealand firms, each with a significant international presence—PGG Wrightson and Fisher & Paykel. The article determines that Agria and Haier invested to acquire strategic assets in order to strengthen their position in the Chinese market as well as build and sustain a global position. Strategic intent was an important factor in deciding where to invest, and strategic assets complementary to their own competitive advantages were sought by the Chinese firms. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?

In a context of increased foreign exchange reserves holding from emerging and developing countries, this paper investigates the diminishing return of reserves holding assumption over the most severe phase of the global financial crisis (2008Q1–2010Q4). Relying on a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, we highlight the differential effect of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves for a set of financial vulnerabilities variables. In a specific manner, although reserves accumulation is effective above a critical threshold to cope with vulnerabilities related to the financial channel, we show that it becomes less effective beyond a certain threshold for domestic bank vulnerabilities. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.     

Sterilisation and Monetary Control by the GCC Member Countries

The prevailing dollar peg of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the absence of any significant current and capital account restrictions led some to believe that these countries have lost monetary independence. However, the paper presents evidence that interest rates of the GCC countries did not converge to the interest rates of the US implying that the assets of the GCC countries are not perfect substitutes to the US assets. This imperfect asset substitutability has allowed the GCC countries to manoeuvre their monetary policies and the central banks of the GCC countries have had some control over their money growth rates by sterilising the changes in international reserves. Results indicate that the monetary authorities of these countries used domestic credit policy to attain some domestic policy objective while engaging in sterilised foreign exchange intervention. This result implies that the proposed GCC central bank should be able to maintain the monetary independence as a group and can reap the benefit of monetary efficiency of the proposed Gulf Monetary Union.