Fed funds futures variance futures

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases where the underlying FFF rate exhibits jumps and where the realized variance is computed by sampling the FFF rate discretely. The valuation of longer-term FFF variance futures is subject to an approximation error which we quantify and show is negligible. We also provide an illustrative example of the practical valuation and use of the FFF variance futures contract.     

Views on futures research methodology

Roy Amara identifies new directions for futures research methodology. Emphasis is placed on validation and quality criteria for futures studies, and a set of initial criteria is outlined—plausibility, reproducibility, and explicitness of values and impacts. Such criteria should be guidelines rather than formalistic straightjackets.     

Nonviolent futures

Nonviolent action — including methods such as rallies, strikes, boycotts and sit-ins — has become increasingly important in the past century as a method for waging conflict and promoting social change. Nonviolent action has been adopted by many social movements, yet its potential impact has only begun to be realised. Some areas for future expansion of the role of nonviolent action include replacing military defence, technological design, challenging capitalism, bureaucratic politics, information struggles and interpersonal behaviour.