技术需求与智能制造技术创新——数字经济的导向性赋能机制

智能制造技术创新是持续推动制造业高质量发展的关键动力。为探究制造业技术需求、数字经济赋能对非市场与市场导向下智能制造技术创新的作用机制，基于技术创新需求拉动理论，引入数字经济赋能构建投入-产出两阶段模型。分析发现，当政府研发补贴较高时，劳动替代需求与智能制造技术创新投入呈倒U型相关，对智能制造研发投入产生挤出效应；以效率提升为主的技术市场需求通过影响企业智能制造技术创新投入，间接推动技术创新产出。有调节的中介模型检验表明，数字经济赋能正向调节市场导向的智能制造技术创新产出，但对非市场导向的技术创新不具赋能作用。在充分利用数字经济发展优势的同时，应依托需求拉动机制开发更多需求侧政策工具，进一步激发智能制造技术创新。     

中国工业部门的能源替代研究——基于对ALLEN替代弹性模型的修正

To overcome the drawbacks in estimating the rate of input substitution in existing econometric models, our paper is first to estimate the absolute/net rate of input substitution of capital and labor for energy in China’s industrial sector. Based on trans-log cost function with constant elasticity of substitution and combined MES method with technology progress and output effect, our paper finds a significant substitution relationship between labor and energy and an uncertain substitution relationship between capital and energy with some complementary characteristics. Furthermore, technology progress and output effect are found to have enhanced the substitution of labor for energy in the past 30 years. Based on these empirical findings, constructive suggestions are made concerning the medium and long-term development strategy of energy in China’s industrial sector. __________ Translated from Shuliang jingji jishu jingji yanjiu 数量经济技术经济研究 (The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics), 2008, (5): 30–42     

Intertemporal production and intertemporal substitution in output supply and input demand

This article presents an intertemporal model of production with multiple inputs to investigate substitution opportunities facing firms over time. The firm’s intertemporal profit maximization problem is characterized with the familiar cost function, and various intertemporal substitution elasticities are delineated for output supply and input demand. The absence of intertemporal substitution in production can imply production smoothing, and allowance for intertemporal substitution in labour demand reinforces the prediction of the real business cycle model. For aggregate US manufacturing, we find substantial substitution in output supply and labour demand over time due to intertemporal changes in output price and wage rates.     

The Antonelli Versus Hicks Elasticity of Complementarity and Inverse Input Demand Systems

A true measure of input substitution associated with exogenous changes in input quantities requires that the output level be held constant. To this effect, this study presents the Antonelli elasticity of complementarity characterised by the distance function. The more common Hicks elasticity of complementarity assumes that marginal cost is constant and hence does not capture pure substitution effects. The two elasticities of complementarity are related to inverse demand systems and are shown to be equivalent under constant returns to scale. A framework for estimating the Antonelli elasticity from the uncompensated demand system is presented. Estimation results reveal substantial bias of input substitutability with the use of Hicks' measure.     

THE EFFECT OF REGULATION ON WAGES AND INTERMEDIATE PRODUCT PRICES UNDER BILATERAL MONOPOLY1

This paper seeks to determine whether, under bilateral monopoly, profit rate regulation induces an input price bias in addition to the well known Averch-Johnson capital intensity bias. Using a Nash-type employer-union, fixed bargaining power model, it is found that regulation may induce lower as well as higher wage rates. Similarly, when the two parties are respectively capital equipment supplier and user, regulation of the user's profit rate has an ambiguous effect on the equipment rental rate. In both cases the input price effect is shown to depend on the elasticity of factor substitution and on how demand elasticity varies with output.     

Factor analysis of demand growth for information technology input in Japan

The purpose of this article is to decompose demand changes for factor input and explore the factor that information technology (IT) capital stock has largely increased in Japan. The Allen partial elasticities of substitution are calculated and the variations in factor input demand are broken down into two effects—price effect and output effect, using industry-level data. From an estimation of the total cost function, the following conclusions are presented. While IT capital stock and ordinary capital stock are complementary, IT serves as a substitute for labor. The factors influencing the high growth rate in IT capital stock are the decrease in the prices of IT and ordinary capital services, and the increase in the labor price, in addition to the output effect. On the other hand, labor demand declines due to both the downward rigidity of wages and the decrease in prices of two kinds of capital services.     

Trade liberalization and the Mexican steel industry

The impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the competitive positions of Mexican and U.S. steel producers is investigated employing a translog cost function with four inputs (capital, labor, domestic intermediate goods, and foreign intermediate goods) to examine scale characteristics and input substitution in Mexican steel production. Results are consistent with diseconomies of scale at high levels of output and with substitute relationships between all input pairs except labor and domestic intermediate goods. Thus, output growth will likely result in cost reductions for Mexican producers only if the industry reaps significant benefits from substitution of foreign inputs for domestic. Recent increases in Mexico's imports of finished steel have much exceeded those of steel industry inputs, and it therefore does not seem likely that a Mexican cost advantage over steel producers in the United States will soon emerge as a result of economies of scale.     

A short and intuitive proof of Marshall's Rule

Summary. When the price of an input factor to a production process increases, then the optimal output level declines and the input is substituted by other factors. Marshall's rule is a formula that determines the own-price elasticity for one factor as a weighted sum of the elasticities of output market demand and factor substitution. This note offers a proof for Marshall's rule that is significantly shorter and somewhat more intuitive than existing derivations. Received: February 19, 2001; revised version: April 3, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I thank Charalambos Aliprantis, John Moore, Patrick Schmitz, and the anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. Support by the German Academic Exchange Service is gratefully acknowledged.     

SO2 policy and input substitution under spatial monopoly

Following the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, electric utilities dramatically increased their utilization of low-sulfur coal from the Powder River Basin (PRB). Recent studies indicate that railroads hauling PRB coal exercise a substantial degree of market power and that relative price changes in the mining and transportation sectors were contributing factors to the observed pattern of input substitution. This paper asks the related question: To what extent does more stringent SO₂ policy stimulate input substitution from high-sulfur coal to low-sulfur coal when railroads hauling low-sulfur coal exercise spatial monopoly power? The question underpins the effectiveness of incentive-based environmental policies given the essential role of market performance in input, output, and abatement markets in determining the social cost of regulation. Our analysis indicates that environmental regulation leads to negligible input substitution effects when clean and dirty inputs are highly substitutable and the clean input market is mediated by a spatial monopolist.     

Economic growth and the evolution of water consumption in Spain: A structural decomposition analysis

The aim of this paper is to examine how technology, processes of input substitution, and changes in final demand, all of which underlie economic growth, influence water consumption. This analysis is undertaken for Spain during a significant socio-economic period, from 1980, the beginning of the democratic era, to 2007, the onset of the current economic crisis.To this end, we construct water consumption series linked to a time series of input–output tables generated for the Spanish economy, and we develop a structural decomposition analysis to study mainly changes in water consumption embodied in final demand.We find that the growth in Spanish demand (all other things being constant) would have implied an increase in water consumption almost three times the growth actually observed. However, this demand effect is largely offset by technology and intensity effects, mainly due to changes in agricultural crops. Given the importance of the demand growth, the final demand effect is also analyzed in detail, broken down by categories as well as level and composition. Household demand and the increase of exports appear as key explicative factors.     

中国钢铁行业能源内部的替代弹性分析

本文运用中国钢铁行业滞后一期的产出代替劳动和资本变量,把钢铁行业能源投入要素分解为煤炭、石油、天然气和电力的投入,建立了一个超越对数生产函数模型,用岭回归估算了中国钢铁行业各能源品种投入要素的产出弹性、替代弹性。结果表明:煤炭与石油、煤炭与天然气、煤炭与电力的替代弹性在1左右,中国钢铁行业可通过用石油、天然气、电力替代煤炭来实现其行业全要素能源效率的提高。     

政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业R&D投入及其专利产出的影响——上海市的实证研究

本文从动态角度运用面板数据分析中的随机效应模型实证研究了上海市政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业自筹的R&D投入及其专利产出的影响。本文认为 ,政府的科技拨款资助和税收减免这两个政策工具对大中型工业企业增加自筹的R&D投入都具有积极效果 ,并且政府的拨款资助越稳定效果越好 ;政府拨款资助和税收减免互为补充 ,提高一个的强度也会增加另一个的效果 ,但这个效应以政府税收减免为主。不同来源的R&D支出和不同等级的人力资源对专利产出的影响是不同的 ,自筹的R&D支出对专利产出有着显著的正面作用。     

European Integration and Production in the French Economy

Effects of greater European integration on the French economy are explored with an aggregate cost function. Input direct price elasticities are inelastic, but greatest (absolute value) for capital and lowest for imports. Cross-price elasticities suggest inputs are substitutes and are higher for domestic inputs than domestic input and imports pairs. As trade restrictions fall, effects on domestic input demand may increase as substitution elasticities rise. Inverse output supply price elasticities indicate domestic input prices are relatively important factors affecting consumption goods prices and import prices more important for investment goods. Thus, import price decreases may stimulate investment and growth. (JEL F14 , O10 , O12 )     

时滞效应视角下风险投资、R & D投入与知识产出的动态均衡关系

考虑到创新价值链不同阶段投入所带来的创新成果具有滞后性,从时滞效应视角出发,选取我国1995-2015年时间序列数据,通过协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、VECM模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分析方法,实证分析了风险投资、R&D投入与知识产出之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动影响。结果表明：我国风险投资、R&D投入与知识产出存在长期均衡关系,风险投资与R&D投入对知识产出均有正向促进效应;风险投资与知识产出形成反哺关系,R&D投入是知识产出的单向Granger诱因;短期内风险投资与R&D投入对知识产出的影响存在一定的时滞效应,但影响不显著;知识产出受到自身、风险投资与R&D投入的冲击,均呈正向响应,其中,受自身波动的影响最大;与R&D投入相比,风险投资对知识产出的贡献率较低。     

On the dual nature of weak property rights

In the natural-resource literature, conventional wisdom holds that weak property rights will cause a resource to be over-exploited. This is because weak property rights are typically perceived as a problem of input exclusion – or theft of un-extracted resources. We present evidence to the effect that weak property rights often take the form of contestable outputs – or output theft – and that this has an impact on resource use. We propose a model of resource use under generally weak property rights – or weak state presence – when resource users face the dual problem of input exclusion and output appropriation. We show that introducing the possibility that outputs be contested acts as an output tax, with the added twist that resource users effectively determine the tax level. This tax has a depressive effect on input use. Whether the resource is under- or over-exploited depends on the relative severity of output appropriation and input exclusion problems. Increasing enforcement measures against theft may lead to severe resource overuse. Efficiency considerations require to account not only for direct resource input use, but also for thieves’ efforts and gains as well as the costs of enforcement against theft and trespass.     

On the dual nature of weak property rights

In the natural-resource literature, conventional wisdom holds that weak property rights will cause a resource to be over-exploited. This is because weak property rights are typically perceived as a problem of input exclusion – or theft of un-extracted resources. We present evidence to the effect that weak property rights often take the form of contestable outputs – or output theft – and that this has an impact on resource use. We propose a model of resource use under generally weak property rights – or weak state presence – when resource users face the dual problem of input exclusion and output appropriation. We show that introducing the possibility that outputs be contested acts as an output tax, with the added twist that resource users effectively determine the tax level. This tax has a depressive effect on input use. Whether the resource is under- or over-exploited depends on the relative severity of output appropriation and input exclusion problems. Increasing enforcement measures against theft may lead to severe resource overuse. Efficiency considerations require to account not only for direct resource input use, but also for thieves’ efforts and gains as well as the costs of enforcement against theft and trespass.     

大学基础科研投入产出与教师背景特征关系实证研究

为研究高校教师背景特征对基础研究科研投入与产出的影响,以投入产出理论为基础,以高阶理论为支撑,以2002—2012年上海交通大学机械与动力一流学科建设为例,通过建立多元回归分析模型,研究在职教师人口统计学背景、教育背景、学科背景、职务背景、海外交流背景下基础科研投入与科研产出之间的关系。结果表明,职务背景中教师职称和海外交流背景对论文产出具有显著影响,而项目背景中项目量级和经费投入对论文产出并无显著影响。另外,还分析了显著性产生的原因,结合实证研究和建设实践,提出了高校有效配置科技资源、建设一流学科的建议。     

Outsourcing, Imports and Labour Demand

This paper examines the effects of purchased services and imported intermediate materials on the labour demand for different skills in German manufacturing sectors. We derive and estimate a factor demand system based on the generalised Box–Cox cost function nesting both the normalised quadratic and the translog functional form. We find that the impacts of output and capital growth are more important in explaining the demand for heterogeneous labour than substitution effects between labour and non–labour inputs. Similarly, the increasing use of both imported materials and purchased services is a consequence of output growth rather than input substitution.
JEL classification : J 23; O 33     

Elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency: evidence from the US electricity generation

ABSTRACT

The implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution. This study uses state level data to examine fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) substitution in electricity generation under increased availability of natural gas in the United States. We observe that changes in elasticities of substitution from pre-2009 to post-2009 differ across states suggesting that the effects of increased availability of inexpensive natural gas on electricity generation have been spatially heterogeneous. We rely on the observed heterogeneity to assess the effects of fossil fuel input substitution on technical efficiency and CO₂ emissions. The results reveal that state level elasticity of substitution between natural gas and coal has a positive effect on technical efficiency and a negative effect on CO₂ emissions. Therefore, future policy design and analyses should reflect the implications for regional elasticities of fossil fuel substitution and associated environmental outcomes.     

Modeling the short-run costs of changes in water availability in a desert city: a modified input-output approach

This paper investigates the impact of change in sectoral water supply on employment, value-added output, and indirect business tax, in Maricopa County, Arizona using input–output model. We developed extended modified input–output approach that incorporates each source of water as a separate sector, and that allows for substitution between water sources, and estimated the economic impact of a change in surface water supplies under two scenarios. Scenario I assumes that total water supply/use decreases by 1%, but the reduction comes only from surface water use, holding groundwater use constant. Scenario II assumes that surface water supply/use in all industries decreases by 1%, and the reduction in surface water use is replaced by the exact amount of more expensive groundwater. We found that the magnitude of economic impact depends on consumer’s responsiveness to water price change. When price elasticity of water demand is relatively low (≤0.2), the economic impact of a 1% reduction in surface water supplies was smaller than under the first scenario. However, the more water users in all industries are responsive to a change in water price, the bigger are economic impacts in terms of reductions in jobs, value added, and indirect business taxes.