Does the term spread play a role in the fed funds rate reaction function? An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4 this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed funds rate reaction function (from now on, FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes; (ii) considers the long–short term spread in addition to the typical variables; and (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (J Monet Econ 44:293–335, 1999). The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the third by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF was more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.      

Asymmetries in the Thai lending–deposit rate spread: an econometric analysis

This study examines the asymmetric behaviour of lending–deposit rate spread in the emerging Thai economy over the period 1991:1 to 2007:1. Although both the threshold autoregressive model and the Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) model detect asymmetries, the MTAR model is a better fit for the sample data. The finding that Thai banks exhibit faster adjustment in lending rates when the spread is widening (i.e. falling deposit rates) than when the spread is narrowing (i.e. rising deposit rates) supports the consumer reaction hypothesis of Stiglitz and Weiss. This phenomenon is the result of the ‘oligopsonistic’ relationship between the banks and their powerful corporate customers, and the attendant practice of the ‘name’-based lending.     

Evaluating the participation of an ethnic minority group in informal employment: a product of exit or exclusion?

This paper critically evaluates competing explanations for the participation of ethnic minority groups in informal employment. These interpret their participation either through a structuralist lens arising out of ‘exclusion’ from formal employment or through a neo-liberal and/or post-structuralist lens driven by voluntary ‘exit’ from formal institutions. To evaluate critically these competing explanations, this paper reports a survey of the experiences of Pakistani immigrants in informal employment in Sheffield, including fifty face-to-face interviews and two focus groups. The findings highlight informal employment amongst this Pakistani ethnic minority group is neither universally driven by exclusion nor exit. Instead, some participate mostly due to exclusion, others mostly for exit rationales and some for a combination of the two, with different mixtures across different groups and types of informal employment. The outcome is a call for greater appreciation of the multifarious character of undeclared work and a move beyond simplistic explanations and policy responses.     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.     

Does the liquidity effect guarantee a positive term premium?

This paper examines the liquidity effect and the term structure in two versions of the limited participation model—an imperfect information model and an adjustment cost model. With a discrete-state solution approach, I find a striking contrast: while the imperfect information model successfully generates the liquidity effect and the positive term premium seen in the data; the adjustment cost model replicates only the liquidity effect. This is because the adjustment cost that drives the liquidity effect in the adjustment cost model also creates an adjustment cost effect, which leads to a negative term premium.     

Unit root testing against an ST–MTAR alternative: finite-sample properties and an application to the UK housing market

A class of smooth transition momentum-threshold autoregressive (ST–MTAR) tests is proposed to allow testing of the unit root hypothesis against an alternative of asymmetric adjustment about a smooth nonlinear trend. Monte-Carlo simulation is employed to derive finite-sample critical values for the proposed test and illustrate its attractive power properties against a range of stationary alternatives. The empirical relevance of the ST–MTAR test is highlighted via an application to aggregate house price data for the UK. Interestingly, house prices are found to exhibit structural change characterized a fitted logistic smooth transition process, with the newly proposed ST–MTAR test providing the most significant results of the alternative smooth transition unit root tests available.     

Testing for nonlinear panel unit roots under cross-sectional dependency — With an application to the PPP hypothesis

In this paper we propose a number of nonlinear panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependency. These tests may be used to test the null hypothesis of non-stationarity against the alternative that some or all of the time series in the system of equations follow a stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) process. In contrast to previous research we relax the assumption that the cross-correlation structure is driven by a common-factor and consider an endogenous correlation structure. Based on the size and power results from the Monte Carlo simulations we recommend using the Wald version of our cross-sectional dependent robust nonlinear panel unit root (CDR-NPU) method.Finally, in an empirical application we demonstrate that our more powerful nonlinear method, in contrast to previous methods, can provide support for PPP even in smaller samples. In consistency with the univariate tests in Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2008) our CDR-NPU tests support the theory that less industrialized economies exhibit stronger and more distinct nonlinear adjustment patterns towards PPP.     

Forecasting with leading indicators: Does the new index lead?

There are very few economic variables that capture as much public attention as the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI). Designed as an early warning system for signaling recessions and recoveries in business cycles, CLI now has significant influence over the expectations of decision makers and market participants. Since its inception in 1938, the index has undergone many revisions, the last of which took effect in March 1989. In this study we evaluate the new index. A number of filters, including the Bayesian sequential probability recursion and the rule of three consecutive declines in CLI, are used to evaluate the information content of CLI in forecasting the turning points in the economy. We also report the result of our forecasting experiment to gauge the marginal value of the new index to improve forecasts of variables such as the unemployment rate, index of industrial production, GNP, sales, profit, consumption and housing starts.     

Public–private partnerships for the provision of public goods: Theory and an application to NGOs

When will a public good or service be provided by the government, when will it be provided by a NGO, and when will we see a private–public partnership? This paper provides a model where a typical public good requires different inputs which raises the possibility of partnerships to exploit comparative advantages of different parties. But hold-up problems due to contractual incompleteness in specifying tasks discourage separation of ownership and management. The fact that public goods have the property of non-rivalry and non-excludability and that NGOs tend to be non-profits drives our key results. We apply the framework to NGOs in developing countries which, in the last few decades, have been increasingly involved in various capacities in the provision of a wide range of public goods and services.     

Russian agriculture during Putin’s fourth term: a SWOT analysis

Russian agriculture is coming off a successful period under Minister Alexander Tkachev. Despite his successes, new agricultural leaders were named in May 2018 to guide agriculture during Putin’s fourth term. The article analyses the condition of and prospects for the agricultural sector during 2018–2024, using a SWOT framework (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). The analysis examines four strengths, six weaknesses, four opportunities and three threats.     

Investment–productivity dynamics and distribution dynamics in a multisector economy: some theory and an application to Italian regions

In this paper, we study the investment–productivity dynamics in the Framework Space, presented by Böhm and Punzo [Cycles, Growth and Structural Change, Routledge, London (2001) 47], as the distribution dynamics of the production sectors of an economy. We apply such theoretical framework to data from Italian regions to identify differences in sectoral behaviors both within and across regions. Our main findings are: sectors within a region generally follow different regime dynamics; Southern Italian regions are generally characterized by higher degrees of heterogeneity in sectoral growth behaviors and of regime instability. Also, we find support to the hypothesis of a positive relation between this type of instability and unemployment, as argued by the Neo-Austrian theory of structural dynamics.     

Heterogeneity in dentists’ activity in Taiwan: an application of quantile regression

The purpose of this paper is to provide new evidence on heterogeneity in dentists’ activity. The heterogeneity is of particular importance because dentists’ responses are likely to differ widely from high to low activity dentists. Quantile regressions provide an alternative and useful method to investigate the differential responses of dentists to various observable explanatory variables. The results reject the null hypothesis of homoskedasticity of individual dentists’ responses. It is shown that time trends for dentists at higher quantiles have greater fluctuations than those at lower quantiles. The clinic–hospital gap in activity at higher quantiles is greater than at low quantiles. Clinic dentists at higher quantiles have much higher numbers of visits and numbers of treatments than those at lower quantiles, but they provide less intensity of care. Dentists in deprived areas have higher activity than those in non-deprived areas, only when they are located at higher quantiles. The results may help policy makers to focus on responsive targets in order to improve the effectiveness of their recent policy of global budgeting.

The role of uncertainty in the euro crisis – an application of liquidity preference theory

The world financial crisis triggered a rediscovery of the active role fiscal policy can play as a remedy in such situations. During the euro crisis, escalating funding costs in a number of southern eurozone member states and Ireland have called this strategy into question. One interpretation of the euro crisis concentrated on the public debt trends in those countries. Opposing this view, the main point of this contribution is to elaborate the link between rising interest rates on sovereign bonds in the euro crisis and a major feature of the financial crisis – a subdued degree of investor confidence after the Lehman collapse. Theoretically, this link is developed with reference to Keynes’ liquidity preference theory. The high explanatory power of measures for the degree of confidence in financial markets as well as detrimental effects of fiscal austerity on the evolution of sovereign yield spreads are demonstrated empirically by means of panel regressions and supplementary correlation analyses.     

Building society mergers and the size—efficiency relationship: a comment

This study uses the 1988 CPS Displaced Workers Surveyto analyse the effect of written advance notification of plant closings and relocations on the re-employment earnings of blue-collar and, for comparison purposes, white-collar workers in the United States. The results show that written notification given less than 60 days in advance of the layoffs did not have any significant effect on the re-employment earnings of either blue-collar or white-collar workers of either gender. However, the results show that dislocated male blue-collar workers who were given advance notification of 60 days or more before their layoffs had significantly higher re-employment earnings. This result is supportive of the federal plant closing legislation mandating 60-day advance notification to dislocated workers in the United States.     

Gini’s transvariation analysis: an application on financial crises in developing countries

The damage and the recurrence of financial crises have increased the concern of investors and policymakers on one hand and the interest of macroeconomists on the other. This paper presents an original non parametric methodology, whose aim is to give a very intuitive and rigorous method for variable selection in order to analyse financial crises. Transvariation analysis compares the distributions of two different groups of countries (sound and distressed) with respect to a single macroeconomic variable and selects the indicators on the basis of a low transvariation probability index. The current account deficit to GDP ratio, differently from other studies on financial crises, seems to be a suitable variable in discriminating distressed countries from sound ones, and the case of Argentina and Turkey confirms this finding.     

Liberalization,bankers’ motivation and productivity: A simple model with an application

Proponents of financial liberalization argue that deregulation motivates bankers to increase their effort and operate at a higher level of efficiency and productivity. Sceptics, however, see that liberalization engenders economic instability and banking crises, and impedes growth. Bank efficiency and productivity, following liberalization, is extensively examined. Nonetheless, the core issue of bankers’ self-motivation remains implicitly assumed and unaddressed. Does liberalization self-motivate bankers and increase their efforts and productivity? This paper models bank productivity from this perspective and evaluates what proportion of banks’ total factor productivity is accounted for by the self-motivated productivity of bankers. We provide a micro-founded framework for the analyses of bankers’ optimal level of effort and effort-driven productivity. Our model also captures banks’ unit input-output prices, optimal wages, bank spread and the overall cost of bank services – measures that are important in evaluating reform policies. We assess the financial liberalization of Nepal as a test case and find that (i) bankers’ efforts and productivity have notably improved in Nepal, although banking services have become costly, and (ii) bank spread has moderately declined in recent years. Our approach is parametric which differs from DEA, hence complements the literature. We hope this analytical framework will be useful to evaluate reform episodes elsewhere.