Examining the Federal Reserve

A bstract . Vritz Redlich (1892–1978) played a leading role in the development of the analytic approach in history and in establishing the new institutional history that combines entrepreneurial and business historv and sociology. A member, in economics , of the German historical school, he spent 16 years in the chemical industry before the triumph of Nazism forced him to emigrate from Germany in 1936. After teaching at various colleges until 1942, he spent the rest of his life doing research in the libraries of Harvard University , producing several notable works in economic history , including a classical study of American banking, and pioneering in entrepreneurial history.     

Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve forecasts of manufacturing capacity utilization employing, as benchmarks, the forecasts from a univariate model which utilizes past information in capacity utilization, and from a bivariate model which utilizes past information in both capacity utilization and the federal funds rate. In addition to accurately predicting the directional change in capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve forecasts are “weakly” rational and generally superior to the bivariate forecasts. In light of another finding that monetary policy is non-neutral, we argue the Federal Reserve forecasts of capacity utilization have positively contributed to the Fed’s success in maintaining a low inflationary environment.

Annals of a Crusade: Wright Patman and the Federal Reserve System

A bstract . As a Congressman from Texas from 1929 to 1976, Wright Patman supported Populist-type legislation which aided farmers, small businessmen and consumers. His perennial target in the postwar era was the Federal Reserve System. He resented the central bank's political independence and believed that "high" interest rates brought about by monetary policy actions benefited banks and harmed ordinary citizens. Rather than attacking the Fed's control of monetary policy directly, Patman tried to improve Fed accountability to Congress by subjecting the Fed's budgetary process and expenditures to government audit and/or the Congressional appropriations process. Despite numerous investigations, reports, and pieces of legislation, Patman's crusade failed to achieve its objectives. Nevertheless, his persistent criticism over 25 years undoubtedly created an atmosphere for change. Eschewing the indirect approach, Patman's political heirs in Congress demanded and received more accountability (and less secrecy) from the Fed regarding monetary policy objectives. Ironically Patman's abortive crusade may have paved the way for their later success.     

Performance Ratings and Career Advancement in the US Federal Civil Service

Abstract

A strong link between performance and rewards in the U.S. federal civil service could raise top performers to positions of power and responsibility and motivate employees to greater productivity. Federal employees, the general population and scholars all express doubts about the strength of that link, however, though few have estimated it empirically. Using random-effects panel data models on a one per cent sample of federal personnel records for 1988–2003, we examine whether performance ratings meaningfully influence promotion probabilities and annual salary increases. With an average annual promotion rate of 17.8 per cent over this period, we estimate that employees with ‘outstanding’ and ‘less than fully successful’ ratings were one-fourth more likely and one-fifth less likely, respectively, to receive promotions than those with ‘fully successful’ ratings. Average salary impacts were smaller but still significant. Patterns held up across agencies and stages of the federal careers. Performance ratings continued to affect career advancement one or two years later. We speculate on whether these links are strong enough to motivate performance and advance the most qualified federal employees.     

Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities,with Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts

This paper proposes a framework to implement regression‐based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to model‐based forecasts obtained either with recursive or rolling window estimation schemes, as well as to forecasts that are model free. The proposed tests provide more evidence against forecast rationality than previously found in the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts as well as survey‐based private forecasts. It confirms, however, that the Federal Reserve has additional information about current and future states of the economy relative to market participants. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-parametric, unconditional quantile estimation for efficiency analysis with an application to Federal Reserve check processing operations

This paper examines the technical efficiency of US Federal Reserve check processing offices over 1980–2003. We extend results from Park et al. [Park, B., Simar, L., Weiner, C., 2000. FDH efficiency scores from a stochastic point of view. Econometric Theory 16, 855–877] and Daouia and Simar [Daouia, A., Simar, L., 2007. Nonparametric efficiency analysis: a multivariate conditional quantile approach. Journal of Econometrics 140, 375–400] to develop an unconditional, hyperbolic, α-quantile estimator of efficiency. Our new estimator is fully non-parametric and robust with respect to outliers; when used to estimate distance to quantiles lying close to the full frontier, it is strongly consistent and converges at rate root-n, thus avoiding the curse of dimensionality that plagues data envelopment analysis (DEA) estimators. Our methods could be used by policymakers to compare inefficiency levels across offices or by managers of individual offices to identify peer offices.     

The Role of Culture in Shaping Perceptions of Discrimination among Active Duty and Reserve Forces in the US Military

Organizational culture allows workers in an organization to develop a shared understanding about events that occur within the organization. The US Army has developed its own culture, which allows it to pursue a variety of challenges that it must face. Today’s US Army relies heavily on citizen soldiers, consisting of the Army Reserve and the National Guard. These soldiers come from a different background than the active component soldiers, and as a result, interpret actions taken by the organization and its leaders differently, based on the subculture from which these soldiers come. The present paper examines the effects that culture and status have on perceptions of discrimination and fairness during a recent US military operation. An historical frame of reference of similar experiences in previous military operations is provided, and implications for organizations that employ both permanent and temporary workers are discussed.     

The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy in addressing liquidity risk during the financial crisis: The experiences of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank

A number of studies sought to measure the effects of non-standard policy on bank funding markets. This paper carries those estimates a step further by looking at the effects of bank funding market stress on the volume of bank lending. By separately modeling loan supply and demand, we determine how non-standard central bank measures affected bank lending by reducing stress in bank funding markets. Our results suggest that non-standard policy measures lowered bank funding volatility in the US and the Euro Area. Lower bank funding volatility in turn increased loan supply in both regions, contributing to sustained lending activity.     

国家及国际动态挑战中审计作用的不断演进——以美国联邦问责署为例

以美国联邦问责署的发展历史、主要职责及未来发展方向为基础,总结最高审计机关在面临国内、国际各方面挑战时所采取的各项措施;探讨各国最高审计机关在全球化的背景下以及各种复杂问题的挑战中,深化国际合作,制定并采用新的国际标准,论述在各方挑战中审计作用的不断演进。     

探索外贸业务成功之秘

上海中信进出口有限公司1996年成立后,进出口贸易有很大发展,2003年进出口贸易总额达3200万美元,实现利润365万元,在总公司各外贸子公司中名列前茅。 中信进出口公司成功的进出口贸易有五个做法:     

Federal regulation and the American economy

This article begins by assessing the cost of Federal regulation in the United States and how it has changed over time. It shows that there have been periods when these costs have fallen but that the trend is upwards. Some regulations result in net benefits but many produce more costs than benefits and the costs bear most heavily on smaller firms. Various measures taken to control regulatory activities are reviewed. The article ends with a plea for Congress to take responsibility for the quality of regulation instead of leaving it to the regulatory agencies and the President.     

股市中信息披露问题的博弈分析

我国证券市场普遍存在虚假信息披露问题。本文首先对造假问题做了理论上的分析,发现在目前的体制下造假问题几乎不可能根除 ,随后提出了一些解决问题的办法 ,力求让中介机构独立和负责任地发挥其对上市公司的审计监督作用。     

揭露建筑工程招投标存在的问题及解决方法

建筑工程是我国的支柱产业之一,随着我国社会主义市场经济的发展,建筑市场的竞争日趋激烈。招标投标是一种有序的市场竞争交易方式,也是规范选择交易主体、订立合同的法律程序。自1999年《招标投标法》颁布实施以来,由于招标投标程序不规范及管理在具体运作中存在的一些问题,影响了工作的实施效果,无法做到择优确定中标人,给建筑工程的甲乙双方造成经济和质量的损失,就这些问题发表几点意见及解决方法。     

Threshold preferences and the environment

In this article we study the implication of thresholds in preferences. To model this we extend the basic model of John and Pecchenino (1994) by allowing the current level of environmental quality to have a discrete impact on how an agent trades off future consumption and environmental quality. Thus, we endogenize the semi-elasticity of utility based on a step function. We find that for low (high) thresholds, environmental quality converges to a low (high) steady state. For intermediate levels it converges to a stable p-cycle, with environmental quality being asymptotically bounded below and above by the low and high steady state. As policy implications we study shifts in the threshold. Costless shifts of the threshold are always worthwhile. If it is costly to change the threshold, then it is worthwhile to change the threshold if the threshold originally was sufficiently low. Lump-sum taxes lead to a development trap and a proportional income tax should be preferred.