Application of hidden Markov switching moving average model in the stock markets: Theory and empirical evidence

In this paper, we propose a hidden Markov switching moving average model (MS-MA model) to extend the moving average model when the dynamic process of stock returns is predictable. That is, hidden Markov chain can be utilized to better describe the stock return dynamics when moving averages are correlated. Based on the MS-MA model, a recursive method of EM algorithm for parameter estimation is proposed and a numerical analysis is demonstrated. Furthermore, we empirically test the hidden Markov chain model using Dow Jones thirty stocks' data. The empirical results show that the dynamic process of stock returns exhibits MS-MA property, meaning the moving averages of stock returns are correlated. Therefore, the MS-MA model allows us to better understand and to predict stock return stochastic process. This model also helps in pricing equity derivatives.     

Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices

In this paper we investigate whether the oil price contributes to stock return volatility for 560 firms listed on the NYSE. Using daily data, we find that the oil price is a significant determinant and predictor of firm return variance. We devise trading strategies based on forecasts of firm return variance using the oil prices and historical averages. We find that investors can make substantial gains in returns by using the oil price in forecasting firm return variances.     

Income inequality dynamic measurement of Markov models: Application to some European countries

In this paper we present a methodology for measuring income inequality dynamically within a Markov model of income evolution. The proposed methodology requires knowledge of the evolution of the population and the averages and medians of the incomes in a country and allows the computation of dynamic inequality indices. The methodology is supported with statistics from Eurostat data applied on France, Germany, Greece and Italy.     

Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Better Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios?

Ben‐David and Papell's (1997 ) tests for structural breaks in trade ratios over the postwar period revealed that trade ratios exhibited structural breaks in their paths and that postbreak trade averages exceeded prebreak averages. They attributed these breaks to trade liberalization measures carried out during this period. We re‐evaluate their results and find that for most countries the averages of actual postbreak ratios were below the averages of the extrapolated prebreak ratios and that a large share of the breaks coincided with the 1970s oil shocks. This would suggest that the oil shocks rather than trade liberalization may account for the breaks.     

Estimating Housing Prices: A Proposal with Spatially Correlated Data

The price of housing per square meter and the trend observed over the last few years is one of the issues that most concerns Spanish citizens and subsequently their political and economic representatives. However, in spite of the importance of space in the real estate market, official averages do not take into account the spatial correlation of housing prices. In order to solve this handicap, we propose the kriging the mean method to estimate mean housing prices. This method provides the best unbiased linear estimation taking into account spatially correlated data.     

Poverty Dynamics in Turkey

This paper examines poverty dynamics in Turkey using a nationally representative panel data covering the 2005–08 period. The aim is to understand mobility in and out of poverty and its correlates. We find that almost a quarter of the poor are persistently poor. The conditional and unconditional exit rates that we estimate are within the range of values reported for developed countries in the literature. That the income events—but not transfers—dominate both poverty entries and exits is indicative of the major role labor markets play in the lives of the poor. In particular, we argue that given the characteristics of the poor and modest levels of social assistance, the reason for mobility rates close to European averages must be sought in the informal economy.     

Active investment strategies in the Spanish futures market: a solution to avoid data snooping bias

This article provides a solution to avoid the data snooping problem in the implementation of active investment strategies in the Spanish financial futures markets. The work sets out to evaluate the results obtained with optimum active investment strategies, grounded in the use of exponential moving averages, and to determine their consistency in periods subsequent to those for which they were obtained. To this end, prices were used with data of different time frequencies, different periods for calculating moving averages and different time ranges. In global terms, the differences between the yield of these active strategies and those of a passive nature are statistically significant. The weak efficient market hypothesis is, therefore, rejected for trading in futures on the IBEX-35 stock market index.     

The veteran wage differential

There is debate in the literature as to whether military service is rewarded in the economy and the extent to which veterans receive either a wage premium or penalty. In this paper, we take a new approach to this question by conducting a wage decomposition of the veteran wage differential and decomposing the wage distribution of veterans and civilians instead of focusing only on the standard wage gap analysis at the averages. We find the veteran wage differential is driven by observable factors such as education, occupation, and industry, but also by location choice, a factor that has been previously overlooked in the literature. At the average, we find white men experience a veteran penalty whereas black men and women experience a veteran premium consistent with the bridging hypothesis. Additionally, we find that as we move along the wage distribution for all demographic groups, the veteran premium tends to become a veteran penalty, even after accounting for selection into military service. However, once we account for selection, we find that the premium for veteran black men disappears.     

Are corruption and taxation really harmful to growth? Firm level evidence

Exploiting a unique data set containing information on the estimated bribe payments of Ugandan firms, we study the relationship between bribery payments, taxes and firm growth. Using industry-location averages to circumvent potential problems of endogeneity and measurement errors, we find that both the rate of taxation and bribery are negatively correlated with firm growth. A one-percentage point increase in the bribery rate is associated with a reduction in firm growth of three percentage points, an effect that is about three times greater than that of taxation. This provides some validation for firm-level theories of corruption which posit that corruption retards the development process to an even greater extent than taxation.     

Do democracies have higher current account deficits?

In this paper we argue that democracies tend to run (larger) current account deficits than autocracies. Our argument is based on the different incentives faced by democratic and autocratic leaders. The main theoretical hypothesis is tested on a dataset of 121 countries over the period 1980–2012, using 5 year averages and a fixed effects panel data model. Special focus is given on the issue of endogeneity by estimating an IV Fixed Effects model. Relying on the idea of the regional waves of democratization and the special role of the Christian Church on the third wave of democratization, we use as instruments of Democracy the level of democracy in neighboring countries and also the share of Christian adherents in each country. Both instruments turn out to be valid determinants of democracy. The empirical findings suggest that autocracies run lower current account deficits than democracies. These results are found to be robust across alternative empirical specifications.     

Does reducing student support affect scholastic performance? Evidence from a Dutch reform

This paper investigates the impact of student support on performance and time allocation of students in Dutch higher education. In 1996 the maximum duration of grants was reduced by 1 year, and thereby limited to the nominal duration of the study program. This reform could have had substantial financial consequences for students. We evaluate the effects of the reform using a difference-in-differences approach. Our main findings are that after the reform, students early in their study (i) switched less to other programs, (ii) obtained higher grades, while (iii) they did not spend more time studying or working. In addition, for students not older than 20 years when they started their study we find larger effects on all performance variables (switching, percentage of completed courses, graduation in the first year and grade point averages). These findings are consistent with recent evidence on heterogeneous treatment effects for higher ability students.     

The intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings

This paper proposes a new method for estimating the intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings from data that contain only short sections of individual earnings histories. The approach infers lifetime earnings persistence from the persistence of short earnings averages together with information about the stochastic process governing individual earnings. I find that lifetime earnings are substantially more persistent than previous estimates based on short panel data suggest. About 54% of lifetime earnings differences between fathers persist into their sons’ generation. This persistence estimate exceeds previous estimates based on five-year earnings averages by one third. These findings are robust against alternative assumptions about the data generating process for earnings.     

Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries

This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920–2016. We use local projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as 5-year averages to examine the impact of inflation on the position of the top-one-percent in the long run. Our findings suggest that inflation reduces the share of national income held by the top 1 percent. Furthermore, we find that inflation shocks and long-run inflation have similar effects on top income shares.     

International spillovers,productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis

Thailand has experienced economic growth well above world averages from 1960 to the recent crisis. While the controversy over Thailand and East Asian growth has discussed the role of capital accumulation versus productivity, we analyze the general equilibrium interaction between productivity and investment in an intertemporal growth model. The high growth is understood as a prolonged transition path with gradual tariff reduction and endogenous productivity driven by foreign spillover feeding capital investment. Counterfactual analyses show how protection would have reduced growth with productivity and investment slowdown, while shock liberalization would have raised immediate growth with faster convergence to steady state.     

Measuring China’s trade liberalization: A generalized measure of trade restrictiveness index

Neither simple average nor import-weighted average tariff indexes are ideal measures of tariff barriers. In this paper, we propose a generalized trade restrictiveness index (GTRI) that extends Feenstra’s (1995) tariff restrictiveness index (TRI) by relaxing the crucial assumption of a small open economy. We show that the GTRI can be measured using import tariffs, import shares, and the corresponding import and foreign export elasticities. We then apply the GTRI to examine how trade restrictiveness has evolved in China from 1997 to 2008, the period in which China entered the WTO. The GTRI indicates a higher level of protection than simple and import-weighted averages, but lower than the TRI. We further show a negative correlation between tariffs and product export supply elasticity, indicating that strategic trade policy was being pursued prior to China’s WTO accession. Finally, we calculate the welfare loss and terms-of-trade gain due to tariff protection. The overall tariff pass-through increases from around 28% to almost 47% because of the WTO.     

On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*

Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.     

The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy

Asset prices may react to news through changes in expected monetary policy. We examine whether economic news directly affects expected changes in monetary policy, measured by changes in federal funds rate futures prices. Because these prices depend on monthly averages of the effective funds rate, the timing of FOMC meetings relative to news announcements is important and we derive a method of weighting the news that incorporates this timing. We find that the market raises (lowers) its expected change in the funds rate target after news that inflation was higher (lower) than expected or employment was stronger (weaker) than expected.     

Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions

In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960–2000, utilising Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for model uncertainty issues in a systematic manner. We find no evidence that trade openness is directly and robustly correlated with economic growth in the long run. We further check the robustness of this finding by employing a battery of proxies for trade openness, namely, current openness, real openness, the fraction of open years based on the Sachs and Warner (1995) criteria and the weighted averages of tariff rates, non-tariff barriers and the black market premium. The main result is robust to the inclusion of different trade openness proxies and none of the proxies is robustly associated with economic growth. The data evidence also indicates that economic institutions and macroeconomic uncertainties such as those induced by high inflation and excess government consumption are key factors in explaining economic growth.     

Offshoring,Sourcing Substitution Bias,and the Measurement of Growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product and Productivity

The decade before the financial crisis of 2008 was a time of large changes in sourcing patterns for manufactured goods, particularly after China's entry into the WTO in 2001. Sourcing substitution reduced the prices paid by wholesale level buyers of these goods, but these price reductions were mostly not captured in the U.S. import price indexes and the U.S. GDP deflator. To find plausible values for sourcing bias we first use data on changes in sourcing patterns over 1997–2007 to predict the effect of the reported price discount from the new emerging market suppliers. Next, we compare adjusted import price indexes for products used for household consumption with consumer price indexes. In the GDP deflator for apparel imports, sourcing bias is found to average 0.6 percent per year, and for durable goods it averages 1 percent per year. During the decade of rapidly changing sourcing patterns, a tenth of the reported speedup in multifactor productivity growth of the U.S. private business sector may have come from sourcing bias in the deflators for imports.     

Armed conflicts and women's authority in intra-household decision making

This paper evaluates the extent to which armed conflicts alter women's intra-household decision making in 51 countries over the past three decades (1990–2018). Exploiting the variations both within and across districts in the timing of battles, we uncover adverse consequences of armed conflict on women's engagement in household decisions on both financial and non-financial aspects. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the number of battles (equivalent to an increase of 5.1 battles) reduces the composite financial and non-financial decision indices of women by 2.32% and 1.34% relative to the sample averages. Breaking down the decision-making indices by looking at the underlying items, we further find that the declines in women's intra-household decision making come from reductions in all aspects of financial and non-financial domains.