An Empirical Comparison Between the Synthetic Control Method and HSIAO et al.'s Panel Data Approach to Program Evaluation

We compare two program evaluation methodologies: the synthetic control method and the panel data approach. We apply both methods to estimate the effect of the political and economic integration of Hong Kong. The results obtained differ depending on the methodology used. We then conduct a simulation that shows that the synthetic control method results in a post‐treatment mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean error with a smaller interquartile range, whenever there is a good enough match. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear conditional mean panel models

This paper provides an approach to estimation and inference for nonlinear conditional mean panel data models, in the presence of cross‐sectional dependence. We modify Pesaran's (Econometrica, 2006, 74(4), 967–1012) common correlated effects correction to filter out the interactive unobserved multifactor structure. The estimation can be carried out using nonlinear least squares, by augmenting the set of explanatory variables with cross‐sectional averages of both linear and nonlinear terms. We propose pooled and mean group estimators, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the coefficients of the model. The features of the proposed estimators are investigated through extensive Monte Carlo experiments. We also present two empirical exercises. The first explores the nonlinear relationship between banks' capital ratios and riskiness. The second estimates the nonlinear effect of national savings on national investment in OECD countries depending on countries' openness.     

Hong Kong's entrepreneurship: behaviours and determinants

It is widely known that Hong Kong's economic success is to a large extent attributed to its dynamic entrepreneurs. However, economic studies on Hong Kong's style of entrepreneurship are few. This paper attempts to throw light on this issue. It argues that Hong Kong is an entrepreneurial society. A unique feature of Hong Kong's style of entrepreneurship lies in its ability to conduct ordinary, rather than extraordinary, discovery. Through the use of guerrilla business strategy, imitation and regional arbitrageurship, entrepreneurial firms in Hong Kong are able to exploit narrow profit margins and to survive global competition. Moreover, the cultural, economic and political environments of Hong Kong are found to be favourable in incubating adaptive entrepreneurship. This paper concludes that, although Hong Kong's style of entrepreneurship emerges out of its unique environments, Hong Kong's experience can be useful to other developing economies. The critical issue is whether latecomer countries can successfully develop adaptive entrepreneurship compatible with their backgrounds so as to exploit international market opportunities.     

Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors*

Panel unit‐root and no‐cointegration tests that rely on cross‐sectional independence of the panel unit experience severe size distortions when this assumption is violated, as has, for example, been shown by Banerjee, Marcellino and Osbat [Econometrics Journal (2004), Vol. 7, pp. 322–340; Empirical Economics (2005), Vol. 30, pp. 77–91] via Monte Carlo simulations. Several studies have recently addressed this issue for panel unit‐root tests using a common factor structure to model the cross‐sectional dependence, but not much work has been done yet for panel no‐cointegration tests. This paper proposes a model for panel no‐cointegration using an unobserved common factor structure, following the study by Bai and Ng [Econometrica (2004), Vol. 72, pp. 1127–1177] for panel unit roots. We distinguish two important cases: (i) the case when the non‐stationarity in the data is driven by a reduced number of common stochastic trends, and (ii) the case where we have common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends present in the data. We discuss the homogeneity restrictions on the cointegrating vectors resulting from the presence of common factor cointegration. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic behaviour of some existing residual‐based panel no‐cointegration tests, as suggested by Kao [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 90, pp. 1–44] and Pedroni [Econometric Theory (2004a), Vol. 20, pp. 597–625]. Under the data‐generating processes (DGP) used, the test statistics are no longer asymptotically normal, and convergence occurs at rate T rather than as for independent panels. We then examine the possibilities of testing for various forms of no‐cointegration by extracting the common factors and individual components from the observed data directly and then testing for no‐cointegration using residual‐based panel tests applied to the defactored data.     

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE SPATIO‐TEMPORAL MODEL OF HOUSE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES

Holly, Pesaran, and Yamagata (Journal of Econometrics 2010; 158 : 160–173) use a panel of 49 states over the period 1975–2003 to show that state‐level real housing prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, such as changes in interest rates, oil prices and technological change. They apply the common correlated effects estimator of Pesaran (Econometrica 2006; 74 (4): 967–101), which takes into account spatial interactions that reflect both geographical proximity and unobserved common factors. This paper replicates their results using a panel of 381 metropolitan statistical areas observed over the period 1975–2011. Our replication shows that their results are fairly robust to the more geographically refined cross‐section units, and to the updated period of study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyse the determinants and the dynamics of current account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood‐based inference of these models requires high‐dimensional integration for which we use efficient importance sampling. Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country‐specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.     

EURO CORPORATE BOND RISK FACTORS

This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread changes in euro‐denominated bonds. We adopt a factor model framework, inspired by the credit risk structural approach, as credit spread changes can be easily viewed as an excess return on corporate bonds over Treasury bonds. We try to assess the relative importance of market and idiosyncratic factors as an explanation of movements in credit spreads. We adopt a heterogeneous panel with a multifactor error model and propose a two‐step estimation procedure, which yields consistent estimates of unobserved factors. The analysis is carried out with a panel of monthly redemption yields on a set of corporate bonds for a time span of 3 years. Our results suggest that the euro corporate market is driven by observable and unobservable factors. The unobservable factors are identified through a consistent estimation of individual and common observable effects. The empirical results suggest that an unobserved common factor has a significant role in explaining the systematic changes in credit spreads. However, in contrast to evidence regarding US credit spread changes, it cannot be identified as a market factor. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross‐sectional Dependency and Size Distortion in a Small‐sample Homogeneous Panel Data Unit Root Test*

In this paper, we investigate the effects of cross‐sectional disturbance correlation in a homogeneous panel data unit root test. As reported by other authors, the unit root test has incorrect size in the presence of cross‐sectional correlation. We suggest that a previously known estimator can be used to reduce the size distortions. We supply response surface estimates for critical values and study the size characteristics of the proposed test. We find that the suggested estimator performs well in small‐sample homogeneous panel data unit root tests. The reduction in size distortion comes at a small cost of lower power against a stationary alternative.     

The Changing Nature of Border,Scale and the Production of Hong Kong's Water Supply System since 1959

This article investigates the making of Hong Kong's water supply system since 1959. It starts by assessing the perspectives provided by the regime approach and the political ecology literatures. The case of Hong Kong brings in ideas from border studies and draws attention to the changing nature of the border to explain socio‐ecological and scaling interactions. The case study maps the border relationship between China and Hong Kong (and Britain), and the political tussle between them over the control of water supply to the city in the late colonial period 1959–78, which resulted in the creation of a localized self‐sufficient water supply system in Hong Kong, and the consolidation of Hong Kong's scale as a colonial city‐state under British rule. It further explicates the change in the nature of the political border since 1979, and the processes by which Hong Kong abandoned attempts to strengthen its local supply, becoming dependent on supply from the regional Dongjiang water networks, as well as the transformation of its scale to become a subordinate of the larger political unit in subsequent years.     

Testing a linear dynamic panel data model against nonlinear alternatives

The most popular econometric models in the panel data literature are the class of linear panel data models with unobserved individual- and/or time-specific effects. The consistency of parameter estimators and the validity of their economic interpretations as marginal effects depend crucially on the correct functional form specification of the linear panel data model. In this paper, a new class of residual-based tests is proposed for checking the validity of dynamic panel data models with both large cross-sectional units and time series dimensions. The individual and time effects can be fixed or random, and panel data can be balanced or unbalanced. The tests can detect a wide range of model misspecifications in the conditional mean of a dynamic panel data model, including functional form and lag misspecification. They check a large number of lags so that they can capture misspecification at any lag order asymptotically. No common alternative is assumed, thus allowing for heterogeneity in the degrees and directions of functional form misspecification across individuals. Thanks to the use of panel data with large $N$ and $T$, the proposed nonparametric tests have an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis without requiring the smoothing parameters to grow with the sample sizes. This suggests better nonparametric asymptotic approximation for the panel data than for time series or cross sectional data. This is confirmed in a simulation study. We apply the new tests to test linear specification of cross-country growth equations and found significant nonlinearities in mean for OECD countries’ growth equation for annual and quintannual panel data.     

论深港物流一体化

在经济全球化和信息化的推动下，现代物流业已经发展成为当今世界经济发展的重要基础产业。近年来。深港两地经济合作进程进一步加快，物流产业是深圳和香港两地的支柱产业,实现深港两地物流一体化将有利于提升两地物流产业的竞争力以及两地的经济合作进程。但是，深圳与香港两地在物流合作的同时也存在一些不足之处。还需两地加强合作和管理，促进深港物流一体化进程。     

The sexual division of care in mainland China and Hong Kong

The aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which the sexual division of domestic labour in Hong Kong and mainland China is influenced by traditional Chinese values and contemporary political and economic factors. It discovers that women in these two societies assume far more caring responsibilities than men. This is similar to women in traditional Chinese society. An important reason is that the political and economic conditions in Hong Kong and mainland China favour the reproduction of traditional Chinese values. Hence it can be argued that the unequal division of domestic labour between men and women will continue as long as the political and economic conditions are unfavourable to women. Le but de cet article est d’explorer jusqu’à quel point les valeurs chinoises traditionnelles et les facteurs politiques et économiques contemporains influencent la division sexuelle du travail domestique à Hong Kong et en Chine. Cet article a découvert que, dans ces deux sociétés, les femmes ont beaucoup plus de reponsabilités sociales que les hommes. Ceci est similaire à la société chinoise traditionnelle. Une raison importante est que les conditions politiques et économiques à Hong Kong et en Chine favorisent la reproduction des valeurs chinoises traditionnelles. On peut donc dire que la division inégale du travail domestique entre les hommes et les femmes continuera tant que les conditions politiques et économiques seront désavantageuses pour les femmes.     

Differences Between Classical and Bayesian Estimates for Mixed Logit Models: A Replication Study

The mixed logit model is widely used in applied econometrics. Researchers typically rely on the free choice between the classical and Bayesian estimation approach. However, empirical evidence of the similarity of their parameter estimates is sparse. The presumed similarity is mainly based on one empirical study that analyzes a single dataset (Huber J, Train KE. 2001. On the similarity of classical and Bayesian estimates of individual mean partworths. Marketing Letters 12 (3): 259–269). Our replication study offers a generalization of their results by comparing classical and Bayesian parameter estimates from six additional datasets and specifically for panel versus cross‐sectional data. In general, our results suggest that the two methods provide similar results, with less similarity for cross‐sectional data than for panel data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavioural heterogeneity and shift-contagion: Evidence from the Asian crisis

In this paper, we propose an empirical model based on the heterogeneous agents literature. Price changes are induced by fundamental, technical, and international factors. The model is estimated for Hong Kong and Thailand surrounding the Asian crisis. We find that the three sources are relevant and that their relative price impact fluctuates conditional on price impact in the previous period. Results imply that the crisis is triggered in Thailand due to an increased focus on the fundamental price, followed by an increase in chartism and finally aggravated by a focus on foreign developments. Furthermore, the crisis deepens in Hong Kong because of increased attention for foreign markets.     

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach as well as the dynamic common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG) methodology for estimation to account for cross‐country heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence and feedback effects. Using both annual data for 1970–2007 and 5‐year non‐overlapping observations, we find that while CToT growth enhances real output per capita, CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical and human capital. Productivity, however, is not affected by either the growth or the volatility of CToT. Our results also indicate that the negative growth effects of CToT volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the ‘resource curse’ paradox. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric methods and local‐time‐based estimation for dynamic power law distributions

This paper introduces nonparametric econometric methods that characterize general power law distributions under basic stability conditions. These methods extend the literature on power laws in the social sciences in several directions. First, we show that any stationary distribution in a random growth setting is shaped entirely by two factors: the idiosyncratic volatilities and reversion rates (a measure of cross‐sectional mean reversion) for different ranks in the distribution. This result is valid regardless of how growth rates and volatilities vary across different economic agents, and hence applies to Gibrat's law and its extensions. Second, we present techniques to estimate these two factors using panel data. Third, we describe how our results imply predictability as higher‐ranked processes must on average grow more slowly than lower‐ranked processes. We employ our empirical methods using data on commodity prices and show that our techniques accurately describe the empirical distribution of relative commodity prices. We also show that rank‐based out‐of‐sample forecasts of future commodity prices outperform random‐walk forecasts at a 1‐month horizon.     

THE PREDICTABILITY OF AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN OECD COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

We examine aggregate consumption growth predictability. We derive a dynamic consumption equation which encompasses relevant predictability factors: habit formation, intertemporal substitution, current income consumption and non‐separabilities between private consumption and both hours worked and government consumption. We estimate this equation for a panel of 15 OECD countries over the period 1972–2007, taking into account parameter heterogeneity, endogeneity and error cross‐sectional dependence using a GMM version of the common correlated effects mean group estimator. Small‐sample properties are demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results support income growth as the only variable with significant predictive power for aggregate consumption growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion

This paper provides an econometric examination of technological knowledge spillovers among countries by focusing on the issue of error cross‐sectional dependence, particularly on the different ways—weak and strong—that this dependence may affect model specification and estimation. A preliminary analysis based on estimation of the exponent of cross‐sectional dependence provides a clear result in favor of strong cross‐sectional dependence. This result has relevant implications in terms of econometric modeling and suggests that a factor structure is preferable to a spatial error model. The common correlated effects approach is then used because it remains valid in a variety of situations that are likely to occur, such as the presence of both forms of dependence or the existence of nonstationary factors. According to the estimation results, richer countries benefit more from domestic R&D and geographic spillovers than poorer countries, while smaller countries benefit more from spillovers originating from trade. The results also suggest that when the problem of (possibly many) correlated unobserved factors is addressed the quantity of education no longer has a significant effect. Finally, a comparison of the results with those obtained from a spatial model provides interesting insights into the bias that may arise when we allow only for weak dependence, despite the presence of strong dependence in the data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Foundations of Rapid Economic Growth

A bstract The fast pace of economic growth of the East Asian nations known as the " Four Tigers "– South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore –has become a legend It is usually claimed that the export-oriented industrialization (EOI) strategy was the basic cause of that rapid growth However, it is contended that the growth strategy of these countries was the result of certain unique historical and geo-political factors The colonial government had created the necessary infrastructure and international linkages which set the stage for initiating the EOI strategy Furthermore, because of the political support accorded to them from foreign governments, these countries, with the exception of Hong Kong, excluded major oppositional groups from sharing political power, and thus they were able to pursue effectively growth and export-oriented policies South Korea and Taiwan also received a large amount of foreign aid from the U S This aid, and the fact the U S laid open its huge market for cheaper Asian exports without insisting on reciprocity , prepared the conditions for export-led growth in those countries     

Firm value,the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and cross-listing in the U.S., Germany and Hong Kong destinations

This paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on the value of firms and on the cross-listing choice of firms destined to three major markets in North America, Asia and Europe. We use dynamic panel data methods and treatment effects methods and find that Sarbanes-Oxley has had a negative impact on the value of firms worldwide. Our evidence indicates that Sox may have segmented markets, with many lower valued firms destined to Hong Kong, thus crowding out the market where regulation is more stringent.