Do population age groups matter in the energy use of the oil-exporting countries?

This study examines the impacts of the population age groups of 20–34, 35–49, 50–64 and 65–79 on the per capita energy use of the oil-exporting countries of Commonwealth Independent States: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia employing the modified-STIRPAT framework. Considering that estimations using non-stationary data may yield spurious results, unlike many prior STIRPAT studies, we explore integration and cointegration properties of the data and then estimate long- and short-run elasticities as well as speed of adjustment coefficients. Since our time series analysis covers only 23 observations (1990-2012), as a robustness check, we also conduct panel data analysis by pooling the mentioned countries data with that for members of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. We apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Bounds Testing approach in the time series analysis and Pooled Mean Group estimator in the panel analysis, both are superior in small samples. The findings from the time series analysis are supported by those from the panel data analysis. According to the results, there is cointegrated relationship among the variables. The age groups together with affluence and oil prices have statistically significant impacts on the per capita energy use in the selected countries. Moreover, we find the speed of adjustments exhibiting different magnitudes for different countries depending on which population age group is considered. The findings suggest that policymakers should pay special attention to the population age groups of 35–49 and 50–64, as they have a large effect on per capita energy use. Since these groups are the main part of the working age population, increase in their energy consumption is likely to lead to economic growth. Furthermore, the policymakers should take into consideration the finding that speed of adjustments towards an equilibrium path is quite high. It implies that any policy related shocks to the per capita energy use relationship could disappear within a year or even sooner.     

Endogenous versus exogenous money: Does the debate really matter?

Whether money is exogenous or endogenous is the subject of one of the most important and intriguing debates in monetary economics. The aim of this article is to contribute to this longstanding debate through detailed examination of different notions of endogeneity and exogeneity of money. I argue that the debate has been too simplified. In reality, money can be either endogenous or exogenous, depending on several factors. Not only has the debate prompted some economists to draw too far-reaching conclusions, but it also misses the point.     

Export performance of developing countries: Does landlockedness matter?

Landlockedness imposes additional costs on trade and reduces international competitiveness. This paper examines the determinants of export performance in developing countries, within a comparative perspective of landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and non‐landlocked developing countries, by using a standard gravity modeling framework. The study covers data from 1995 to 2015. The results suggest that despite recent trade policy reforms, the overall export performance of LLDCs is lower than that of non‐landlocked developing countries due to the inherent additional trade costs associated with landlockedness. The conventional wisdom that export performance is aided by economic openness also applies to LLDCs, but distance‐related trade costs have a greater negative impact on exports from LLDCs than on other developing countries. The immediate trade policy challenge for LLDCs is therefore to create a more trade‐friendly environment by lowering tariffs, reforming exchange rates and entering into regional trade agreements.     

Does income inequality really matter for credit booms?

This paper addresses the question whether income inequality is associated with credit booms, alongside other macroeconomic factors. We distinguish between the different types of credit booms—real estate credit booms, household credit booms, firm credit booms and credit booms that turn into crises. Furthermore, our analysis of a sample of 70 countries between 1990 and 2016 does not provide any evidence of credit booms driving income inequality. We observe that capital inflows increase the likelihood of credit boom occurrence, while countries experiencing high economic growth tend to have more credit booms. Finally, we note that credit booms are more frequent in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes.     

Does the star power matter?

This study investigates the role of superstars in the Korean movie industry. We apply a two-step approach: the first step is to test the significance of the star power during 1988–1999 in Korea; the second step is to estimate the magnitude of star power. The appearance of a star actor increases the probability of a hit or success by 15–19% and star power is higher than a director power. A domestic award is associated with positive performance. We find that the top 15 players among 68 actors and actresses significantly impacts on the success of movies.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality in developing countries: Does sector matter?

Scholars have studied the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and within‐country income inequality in cross‐national contexts, but have not empirically investigated how FDI in different sectors might affect inequality in different ways. We use error correction models to analyze sectoral FDI data compiled from UNCTAD investment reports in 60 middle‐income countries from 1989 to 2010, arguing that FDI in services is more likely to be associated with inequality than FDI in other sectors. We argue that skill biases and changes in employment patterns associated with service sector investments can help explain these findings.     

Immigration and economic freedom of the US states: Does the institutional quality of immigrants' origin countries matter?

When people immigrate to the United States from countries with less economic freedom, they do not dampen economic freedom in their destination states. We use the Economic Freedom of North America report to rate the economic freedom of US states, and we group immigrants by how far below the United States their origin countries score in the Economic Freedom of the World report. Our major findings hold true even when states receive immigrants from countries with far less economic freedom. Most relationships between immigration and the US states' economic freedom scores are neither statistically nor economically significant.     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.     

Does the dutch model really exist?

The policy that led from the "Dutch disease" (in the 1980s) to the "Dutch miracle" (in the 1990s) consists of three tracks: wage moderation, retrenching public expenditure and reducing the tax burden, and slimming the welfare system. The wage moderation track seems to have been the most important. The term "Dutch model" refers to the socioeconomic system of the Netherlands. Most observers point particularly to the relatively low unemployment rate to indicate the success of this model. However, the economic inactivity rate in the Netherlands is not lower than in neighboring countries. This suggests that open unemployment in the Netherlands has been partly replaced with hidden unemployment. In particular, the disability scheme seems to contain a large component of hidden unemployment. Another feature of the Dutch model is its consensus-seeking nature, which is fostered by its institutional structure.     

World economic convergence: Does the estimation methodology matter?

An extant empirical literature produces evidence on economic convergence using methods that assume an underlying deterministic trend. Competing approaches that assume a stochastic trend, however, produce only limited evidence of economic convergence. In this paper we address this puzzling feature of the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of economic convergence using three methodologies that cover all possible underlying assumptions: deterministic, stochastic, and combination trends. We also develop a method for an overall Stochastic Convergence Rate Index, that combines the outcomes of alternative stochastic tests and provides a single measure of the intensity of stochastic convergence. We consider 135 economies over the period 1980–2017. We find that economic convergence occurs at a global level through the formation of convergence clubs, and economic convergence emerges as a deterministic rather than a stochastic process. Tests that ignore deterministic trends tend to understate the evidence for convergence.     

Revisiting the democracy-private investment nexus: Does inequality matter?

Contrary to the predictions of a large theoretical literature, recent cross-country evidence suggests autocracies can generate statistically indistinguishable levels of private investment compared to democracies. We argue that the previous exclusion of inequality explains part of this puzzle. We model current investment as a function of investors’ beliefs about future tax rates, which are conditioned by the constraints on the Executive in setting tax rates and expropriating tax revenues. In democracies, where tax rates reflect the preferences of the median voter, investment declines with rising inequality. In autocracies, investor beliefs about future tax rates reflect the relative power of Elites compared to the Executive. As inequality rises, the increased resources available to Elites constrains the Executive’s ability to expropriate more tax revenues. The heterogeneous determinants of investor beliefs can explain the observed pattern of investment across regime types. We first test our predictions at the macro-level with cross-country data. We then test the behavioral underpinnings of our model with a novel laboratory experiment showing how inequality affects individual-level investment behavior dependent upon regime type. Results from both types of analyses show that when inequality is taken into account autocracies can generate similar levels of investment to democracies.     

Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea-ASEAN commodity trade data

The contribution of this article is to assess the effect of oil prices have on the trade balance in the framework of bilateral commodity trade data between Korea and each of the four ASEAN member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume the effects of oil price changes to be symmetric and apply the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to the subject. We find that the price of crude oil indeed has an important role in affecting Korea's trade balance with those four ASEAN economies in both the long- and short-run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the nonlinear ARDL method to reveal that there is evidence that changes in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on the trade balance for certain products in the long- and short-run.     

Polarization of life expectancy across countries: Does biological and cultural distance to the health technological frontier matter?

This study examines the evolution of the distribution of life expectancy (LE ) at birth and at ages 20 and 60 years using the stochastic kernel framework. It finds that the period between 1990 and 2013 exhibits a decrease in LE at birth dispersion and also shows that σ ‐divergence and polarization of LE at ages 20 and 60 occur across countries. Further deterioration (improvement) in relative position of countries with low (high) starting LE is observed in some sections of the LE distribution. The dispersion in LE and intradistribution movements can be attributed to genealogically transmitted human barriers to technology diffusion.     

Exchange rate pass-through in the Asian countries: does inflation volatility matter?

This paper presents a nonlinear relationship between exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and inflation volatility. Through the lens of a threshold framework, we uncover a clear evidence of near to one ERPT to consumer prices once inflation volatility crosses a threshold level of 4.17. Clearly, there are significant differences in the degree of ERPT between the high and low inflation volatility in the inflation targeting (IT) and non-IT Asian countries.     

Does progress matter?

This paper, presented as an addresss to the Annual Conference of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought, argues that writing history may be more interesting if progress is not made the leitmotif. Starting from an examination of early causal accounts of the history of political economy, written in the ninteenth century by Marx, Toynbee, Ingram and Leslie, a plea is made for narratives rather than explanations. Consistent with the former historians of economic thought this may be perceived as eavesdropping on conversations of the past. To understand the richness of these conversations they need to perceive their work not just as a sub-discipline of economics but in a wider interdisciplinary setting.     

The effects of birth weight: Does fetal origin really matter for long-run outcomes?

This paper investigates whether birth weight itself causes individuals’ future life chances. By using a sample of twins in Japan and controlling for the potential effects of genes and family backgrounds, we examine the effect of birth weight on later educational and economic outcomes. The most important finding is that birth weight has a causal effect on academic achievement around the age of 15, but not on the highest years of schooling and earnings.     

Graduate employment: Does the type of higher education institution matter?

The paper analyses whether the type of institution from which students graduate has an impact on their unemployment propensity. It uses official data on the Portuguese higher education system, for 2018, at the program/institution level, which provides information on graduate unemployment, as well as demographic and socioeconomic background information. A fractional probit model on graduates’ propensity for unemployment is estimated. Results suggest that polytechnic graduates face higher unemployment propensity than university graduates, maintaining inequalities present in students’ previous trajectories. Policies targeting socioeconomic segregation need to address not only access to higher education but also the transition to the labor market.     

Trade and unions: Does size matter?

Our empirical analysis builds upon the hypothesis that unions are detrimental to a firm's efficiency. Using a rich survey of German manufacturers, we investigate firm-level determinants on the probability of collective wage bargaining with particular focus on the impact of a firm's engagement in foreign markets. An interesting and very robust finding is that exporters are less likely to engage in union wage bargaining. This finding is in line with a pessimistic perception of unions. The negative effect of collective bargaining can be offset by efficiency gains for larger exporters, who can benefit from operation cost saving effects. Size does matter as larger firms export and may find bargaining with a single entity representing the workforce more convenient than bargaining with each worker individually. We are using firm level information on IT investment as instrument for the export dummy and successfully test for the validity of this instrument.     

Does oil substitute for patriarchy?

Critics of Ross's (American Political Science Review, 102, 2008, 107) gendered resource curse thesis argue that culture trumps oil wealth as a determinant of female labor force participation (FLFP). Here, I argue that, while cultural attributes do indeed affect the female labor supply, oil wealth reduces the demand for female labor by hurting the export‐oriented industries that employ female labor intensively. By reducing the demand for female labor in this way, oil wealth undermines the positive effect of gender egalitarianism on FLFP. Thus, oil curses women. Using data from the World Values Survey and the World Bank, I find support for the argument.