Regression‐Kink Approach for Wage Effect on Male Work Hours

In finding the effect of after‐tax wage rate on work hours, the main difficulty is the endogeneity of after‐tax wage rate that equals ‘one minus average tax rate’ times wage rate. To overcome this endogeneity problem, we take advantage of jumps in the marginal income tax rate, which is a regression discontinuity (RD) idea. This RD, in turn, makes the average income tax rate ‘kink‐continuous’, which is a regression kink (RK) idea. We provide a simple economic model resulting in the RD and RK features, explain how to implement RK in practice, and then apply our methods to Korean male data. Our main RK‐based labour supply elasticity estimate 7.16% turned out to be insignificant with t‐value 1.52, but it is much larger than most estimates in the literature. This may be attributed to, among other things, the facts that the RK instrument is unique, that RK identifies only the local elasticity at the kink point and that RK requires large data as regression derivatives are estimated.     

Blame the baby boomers for depressed wage growth

• ? While ‘blame’ may sound harsh, the reality is that in an ageing society, the over‐60s accounting for a bigger share of the workforce equals lower wage growth. This is particularly pertinent for the eurozone right now with the baby boomer generation entering the last phase of their working life. Our analysis shows that the very sizeable over‐60 cohort is depressing aggregate wage growth by up to 0.3 ppts annually. That may also help explain why inflation is still subdued .
• ? European policy makers are scratching their heads about why wage growth has not picked up in line with economic growth over the past two years. For the ECB this is relevant as it tries to understand why inflation remains low. While much of the debate centres around unemployment and the Phillips curve, this article looks at the impact of an ageing society on wage growth.
• ? Even though this is more of a structural, rather than a cyclical, perspective, it is particularly important for the eurozone economies right now, because the large post‐World War II baby boomer generation is strongly pushing up the elderly share of employment (measured as those aged 60 and above). As the share of the over 60s in total employment grows, so does their weight in aggregate wage growth.
• ? The crucial point is that wages increase with age, but at a decreasing rate, and stay essentially flat above 55. The main reasons are that the elderly invest much less in continued education and are less inclined to switch to better‐paying jobs.
• ? Our analysis shows how substantial the negative impact of an ageing workforce is on wage growth in the eurozone. By simulating an alternative demographic scenario, we estimate that wage growth in 2015–17 would have been 0.3 ppts per year higher had it not been for the ageing baby‐boomers. Similarly, forecasts for 2018–20 not accounting for the baby‐boomers may overstate wage growth by some 0.2 ppts or more annually.

     

Analysis of the practice of job evaluation in the metal industry in Turkey

Job evaluation's main aim is to establish a fair wage structure. Its main principle is ‘equal pay for equal work’. ‘Metal Industry Job Grouping System’ (MIDS) has been in the metal industry in Turkey for more than 20 years. The results of the practice of the system were measured by the Gini coefficient. By the findings, the average wages of the job groups are different enough from each other by their job groups in the way the wage of the bigger number job group is higher than the smaller except the job group two in the industry. However, the wages are far from the principle ‘equal wage for equal job’ within the same job itself. In addition, the workers make use of bonuses and social benefits. The effect of social benefits of them on the wage structure is positive within the same job group and negative between different job groups within the same company. Nevertheless, the effect of both bonuses and social benefits on the wage structure is negative between the companies because, between them they are different from each other. Job group and seniority affect the wage structure. Seniority has a socio-psychological self-producing dynamic. The distribution of seniorities within the same job group has negative effects on the wage structure. However, this fact for each worker disappears for the long term since the worker of today who has short-term seniority will be the one of tomorrow who has long-term seniority. Therefore, for each worker, the wage structure gets closer to the principle ‘equal wage for equal job’ within the same job group itself over time.     

Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance*

Although out‐of‐sample forecast performance is often deemed to be the ‘gold standard’ of evaluation, it is not in fact a good yardstick for evaluating models in general. The arguments are illustrated with reference to a recent paper by Carruth, Hooker and Oswald [Review of Economics and Statistics (1998) , Vol. 80, pp. 621–628], who suggest that the good dynamic forecasts of their model support the efficiency‐wage theory on which it is based.     

ADAM SMITH AND THE ROLE OF THE METAPHOR OF AN INVISIBLE HAND

Daniel Klein and Brandon Lucas's ‘In a Word or Two, Placed in the Middle: The Invisible Hand in Smith's Tomes’, following a vague hint by Peter Minowitz (2004) , offers original physical evidence that Smith ‘deliberately placed the phrase “led by an invisible hand”– at the physical centre of both his masterworks’. Further, it suggests that the invisible‐hand paragraphs are a response to Rousseau (1755 ); and that in ‘numerous and rich ways’, centrality holds ‘special and positive significance in Smith's thought’. This paper acknowledges the physical centrality of the invisible‐hand metaphor, but questions whether centrality alone gives weight to wider claims that the ‘invisible hand’ was Smith's ‘central idea’. It draws upon Smith's Rhetoric Lectures (1763), and argues that the invisible‐hand paragraphs in The Theory of Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations identify the actual objects of the invisible‐hand metaphor. This paper insists that Adam Smith is the most reliable source for revealing what he meant. In contrast, most modern attributions of special meaning to Adam Smith's use of the metaphor ignore Smith's teaching on the use of metaphors and, instead, make numerous, and often mutually exclusive, claims that Smith had a ‘doctrine’ of ‘an invisible‐hand’.     

Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS*

Two different approaches intend to resolve the ‘puzzling’ slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996) , Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non‐linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the ‘classical’ PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46) , the BS effect, suggests that a non‐constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition‐in‐deviation non‐linear adjustment mechanism towards non‐constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non‐tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half‐life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models.     

How low can U go?

• ? Although there is growing evidence that wage growth is building in response to low and falling unemployment in the advanced economies, there is scope for unemployment rates to fall further without triggering a pay surge.
• ? For a start, current unemployment rates in comparison to past cyclical troughs overstate the tightness of labour markets. Demographic trends associated with the ageing ‘baby boomer’ bulge have pushed down the headline unemployment rate – unemployment rates among older workers are lower than those of younger cohorts. And in a historical context, Europe still has a large pool of involuntary part‐timers.
• ? In addition, rising participation rates mean that demographics are less of a constraint on employment growth than widely assumed. In both 2017 and 2018, had it not been for increased activity rates (mainly for older cohorts), unemployment would have had to fall more sharply to accommodate the same employment increase. We expect rising participation rates to continue to act as a pressure valve for the labour market.
• ? Finally, unemployment rates were generally far lower during the 1950s and 1960s than now. If wages stay low relative to productivity, as was the case during that prior era, employment growth may remain strong, with unemployment falling further. In the post‐war era, low wages were partly a function of a grand bargain in which policy‐makers provided full employment in return for low wage growth.
• ? There is evidence to suggest that many post‐crisis workers have opted for the security of their existing full‐time job and its associated benefits despite lower wage growth, rather than change job and potentially earn more; the rise of the ‘gig economy’ has led some workers to value what they already have more. Put another way, the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) has fallen. So, the role of labour market tightness in pushing wage growth higher may continue to surprise to the downside.

     

Free collective bargaining and incomes policy: learning from Barbara Wootton and Hugh Clegg on post‐war British Industrial Relations and wage inequality

Growing income inequality has returned as a major political issue in affluent, advanced economies, often associated directly with the decline of trade unions and collective bargaining. In policy terms, this has been reflected in the British campaign for a ‘Living Wage’ and the new German minimum wage. Yet on the broader front, Industrial Relations (IR) struggles to find a credible regulatory strategy to address inequality—one that combines state and civil society initiatives and can be legitimised in political philosophy. This History and Policy article argues that there is much to learn from the IR past, before neo‐liberalism. My focus is the writing of Barbara Wootton and Hugh Clegg on ‘Incomes Policy’, from the 1950s to the early 1980s, when this was a central intellectual and policy issue in British IR. I explore the differing justifications for Incomes Policy, from corporatist macro‐economic management to social equality, comparing and contrasting the democratic socialist political principles of Wootton with Clegg's social democratic pluralism. The conclusion relates this historical debate between state pattern and civil society process to current concerns about how social democratic ideas and IR policy can address the problem of labour market inequality.     

A SURVEY OF TRADE AND WAGE INEQUALITY: ANOMALIES,RESOLUTIONS AND NEW TRENDS

This paper surveys recent studies on trade and wage inequality. We first introduce some trade‐based explanations for increased wage inequality. There are, however, a number of criticisms of this line of thought based on the ‘trade‐wage inequality anomaly’, the ‘price‐wage anomaly’, and the small volume of trade. Mainly due to these criticisms, trade‐based explanations for rising wage inequality have been limited in the economic literature. Rather, the primary explanations for wage inequality have been based on skill‐biased technological change. Some trade models, however, have weakened the above criticisms, and more economists now argue that the effect of trade, though relatively small compared to that of technological change, is more significant than generally believed. Finally, we attempt to link new trends in inequality, such as job polarization and within‐group inequality, to the trade and wage inequality literature.     

Viceroys or Emperors? An Institution‐Based Perspective on Merger and Acquisition Prevalence and Shareholder Value

We study how cross‐country variance in institutions that aim to address core agency problems influences consequential strategic decisions of firms around the world. Scholars frequently argue that the interests of minority shareholders are threatened by merger and acquisitions (M&As) due to principal‐agency problems. Rather than acting in shareholders’ best interests, managers potentially act as viceroys, using M&As to cushion themselves from risk and extract more pay. Yet equally salient is the issue of principal‐principal agency, where controlling shareholders can behave as emperors who use M&As to siphon off assets and profits, and appropriate wealth of shareholders with fewer control rights. Taking an institution‐based perspective on these ‘viceroy’ and ‘emperor’ problems, we conjecture that institutions aimed to address these agency problems can generate the desired outcome regarding M&A prevalence, but may also produce unintentional negative consequences for shareholder value as a side‐effect. Empirical evidence covering M&As from 73 countries supports our hypotheses.     

Identification and Estimation Issues in Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models

Exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) models are widely used in the international finance literature, particularly for the modelling of real exchange rates. We show that the exponential function is ill‐suited as a regime weighting function because of two undesirable properties. Firstly, it can be well approximated by a quadratic function in the threshold variable whenever the transition function parameter γ, which governs the shape of the function, is ‘small’. This leads to an identification problem with respect to the transition function parameter and the slope vector, as both enter as a product into the conditional mean of the model. Secondly, the exponential regime weighting function can behave like an indicator function (or dummy variable) for very large values of γ. This has the effect of ‘spuriously overfitting’ a small number of observations around the location parameter μ. We show that both of these effects lead to estimation problems in ESTAR models. We illustrate this by means of an empirical replication of a widely cited study, as well as a simulation exercise.     

Multiple comparisons with the best,with economic applications

In this paper we discuss a statistical method called multiple comparisons with the best, or MCB. Suppose that we have N populations, and population i has parameter value θ_i. Let $\theta _{(N)}={\rm max}_{i=1,\ldots ,N}\theta _{i}$\nopagenumbers\end , the parameter value for the ‘best’ population. Then MCB constructs joint confidence intervals for the differences $[\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{1},\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{2},\ldots ,\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{N}]$\nopagenumbers\end . It is not assumed that it is known which population is best, and part of the problem is to say whether any population is so identified, at the given confidence level. This paper is meant to introduce MCB to economists. We discuss possible uses of MCB in economics. The application that we treat in most detail is the construction of confidence intervals for inefficiency measures from stochastic frontier models with panel data. We also consider an application to the analysis of labour market wage gaps. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Limit theorems for reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

This paper studies one‐dimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes, with the distinguishing feature that they are reflected on a single boundary (put at level 0) or two boundaries (put at levels 0 and d > 0). In the literature, they are referred to as reflected OU (ROU) and doubly reflected OU (DROU), respectively. For both cases, we explicitly determine the decay rates of the (transient) probability to reach a given extreme level. The methodology relies on sample‐path large deviations, so that we also identify the associated most likely paths. For DROU, we also consider the ‘idleness process’ L_t and the ‘loss process’ U_t, which are the minimal non‐decreasing processes, which make the OU process remain ≥ 0 and ≤ d, respectively. We derive central limit theorems (CLTs) for U_t and L_t, using techniques from stochastic integration and the martingale CLT.     

‘I Like How You Think’: Similarity as an Interaction Bias in the Investor–Entrepreneur Dyad

Investigating the factors that influence venture capital decision‐making has a long tradition in the management and entrepreneurship literatures. However, few studies have considered the factors that might bias an investment decision in a way that is idiosyncratic to a given investor–entrepreneur dyad. We do so in this study. Specifically, we build from the literature on the ‘similarity effect’ to investigate the extent to which decision‐making process similarity (shared between the investor and the entrepreneur) might bias or otherwise impact the investor's evaluation of a new venture investment opportunity. Our findings suggest venture capitalists evaluate more favourably opportunities represented by entrepreneurs who ‘think’ in ways similar to their own. Moreover, in the presence of decision‐making process similarity, the impacts of other factors that inform the investment decision actually change in counter‐intuitive ways.     

Discrimination and Favoritism in the U.S. Labor Market: The Cost to a Wage Earner of Being Female and Black and the Benefit of Being Male and White

Abstract . The hypothesis that Black female wage earners face greater wage discrimination than their White female or Black male counterparts is supported by evidence derived from a version of a widely used method for decomposing wage differentials. This version allows one to measure both the “cost” of being a female or Black wage earner and the “benefit” of being a male or White wage earner. The approach yields a model which is validated by testing with Census Bureau samples (n_1,2,3,4= 23,800). The empirical test indicates that when skills are fairly comparable, the Black female earns an average wage nearly 21 percent lower than the White male average, whereas the White female's average was 15.5 percent lower. It suggests that being female has a relatively greater impact on Black female wages than being Black.     

Urban Vigilantism: A Study of Anti‐Terror Law,Politics and Policing in Istanbul

Focusing on the case of young socialist vigilantes who were arrested and imprisoned as ‘terrorists’ in 2007, this article illustrates how vigilantism in working‐class neighbourhoods of Istanbul with a high Alevi population evolved from an unarmed, public and participatory form of vigilantism to an armed one, and discusses the role of the anti‐terror law in this transformation. The article illustrates the ways in which the anti‐terror law, by narrowing the space for civil politics, paved the way for youth engagement in violent forms of extra‐legal security practice in spaces occupied by the historically stigmatized working‐class Alevi population. The article also argues that, over the last decade, Turkey’s ruling elites have used the anti‐terror law to wage a war against the oppositional politics conducted by the country’s historically stigmatized populations (such as Kurds and Alevis). Not only has this war put politically active and respected local figures from these communities behind bars, it also ‘polices’ (à la Rancière) these communities. Accordingly, the article illustrates how the law that considers attempts at self‐governance as a threat to state sovereignty effectively intervenes in local politics and space, leading to the reconfiguration of political space at the local level.     

Beyond the Global City Concept and the Myth of ‘Command and Control’

The article argues that the lack of convincing empirical evidence for the global economy as being subject to ‘command and control’ results from that contention being a neo‐Marxist myth. First, imagining the global economy as being subject to ‘highly concentrated command’ through the function of some major cities as ‘strategic sites’ for the production of ‘command and control’ is traced back through several neo‐Marxist authors to narrate its genesis, and to argue that the lack of evidence for that proposition is a consequence of those antecedents envisioning capitalism as a totalizing structure, thus making the assumption that it is subject to control and coordination from a distance. Second, Taylor's interlocking world city network model is forensically examined to explain that it is fallacious because it is a structuralism that, bedevilled by a sorites paradox, contains the further problem of containing no credible evidence for the existence of ‘command centres’. Finally, the article moves beyond neo‐Marxism's key concepts by juxtaposing their assumptions with ethnographic results from social studies of finance, a manoeuvre which forges an understanding of cities as socio‐technical assemblages and eventful multiplicities, beyond, inter alia, the baseless assumption that the global economy is subject to ‘command and control’.     

Selection correction and sensitivity analysis for ordered treatment effect on count response

In estimating the effect of an ordered treatment τ on a count response y with an observational data where τ is self‐selected (not randomized), observed variables x and unobserved variables ε can be unbalanced across the control group (τ = 0) and the treatment groups (τ = 1, …, J). While the imbalance in x causes ‘overt bias’ which can be removed by controlling for x, the imbalance in ε causes ‘covert (hidden or selection) bias’ which cannot be easily removed. This paper makes three contributions. First, a proper counter‐factual causal framework for ordered treatment effect on count response is set up. Second, with no plausible instrument available for τ, a selection correction approach is proposed for the hidden bias. Third, a nonparametric sensitivity analysis is proposed where the treatment effect is nonparametrically estimated under no hidden bias first, and then a sensitivity analysis is conducted to see how sensitive the nonparametric estimate is to the assumption of no hidden bias. The analytic framework is applied to data from the Health and Retirement Study: the treatment is ordered exercise levels in five categories and the response is doctor office visits per year. The selection correction approach yields very large effects, which are however ruled out by the nonparametric sensitivity analysis. This finding suggests a good deal of caution in using selection correction approaches. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is This What The Democratic City Looks Like? Local Democracy,Housing Rights and Homeownership in the Portuguese Context

This article analyses the creation of a normative framework for the democratic city during the regime change in Portugal in 1975—the answers that were given to the question, ‘What should a city be like in a democratic regime?’ While I critically discuss post‐democracy and its use of post‐foundational contributions, I review the post‐revolution Portuguese constitutional debate, contending that the call for democratization brought by urban popular organizations was answered with a political compromise that exchanged expectations of a participatory city for a commitment to a social rights city, enhanced with a promise of homeownership for urban popular segments. In light of this, in this article I question post‐democratic proposals, arguing that when this approach implicitly establishes equivalence between democracy and ‘the political’, it has difficulties in interpreting how the grammar of democracy is ‘organized’ in conflictual and contingent processes of democratic institutionalization. As an alternative, I contend that a critical debate concerning democracy and the urban must address how democratic expectations of emancipation have been translated into institutions and rights through interwoven and situated processes of politicization and depoliticization that allow both politicization of the urban and the production of consent .     

Identification issues in the public/private wage gap,with an application to Italy

This paper reviews some of the standard assumptions that are imposed in order to estimate the average public/private wage gap and that are mainly related to the possible selection of the sector. There are two contributions to the existing public/private wage gap literature. One is a better understanding of the identified parameters: standard estimators identify a local effect (LATE), which in general cannot be generalized to the entire population, as instead is almost always done. The other is the partial identification of the population average treatment effect, with an instrumental variable. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper in this literature that employs bounds. The technique is applied to male workers in Italy. For compliers, LATE estimates a wage advantage from working in the public sector greater than 30%. This return is within the narrowest bounds on the population average treatment effect that are consistent even with a much smaller gap (about 15% or more).