Calibrating spatial models of trade

Empirical spatial models of trade that are based on a mathematical programming specification often exhibit a large discrepancy between the equilibrium solution and the observed demand, supply and levels of trade flows among countries. This discrepancy may be due to several causes. Assuming, however, that a trade model is not misspecified – in the sense that behavior of the economic agents involved in the specific commodity markets has been included in the study and that the relevant policy instruments have been properly taken into account – the cause of discrepancy may be traced either to imprecision of unit transaction costs or to imprecision in the measurement of the demand and supply functions' parameters, or both. Policy assessments based on this type of imprecise models are distorted. This paper presents a methodology for calibrating mathematical programming spatial trade models of increasing complexity, from the one-commodity case to a multi-commodity model with asymmetric slope matrices of demand and supply functions. The proposed calibration procedure identifies corrections of imperfectly measured parameters. The calibrated models generate solutions that exactly reproduce quantities produced and consumed in all countries, as well as trade flows among all pairs of countries, observed in a given base year. Such models may then serve as a springboard for assessing the impact of various policy changes on economic agents in the countries under study.     

Bootstrap LM tests for higher-order spatial effects in spatial linear regression models

This paper first extends the methodology of Yang (J Econom 185:33–59, 2015) to allow for non-normality and/or unknown heteroskedasticity in obtaining asymptotically refined critical values for the LM-type tests through bootstrap. Bootstrap refinements in critical values require the LM test statistics to be asymptotically pivotal under the null hypothesis, and for this we provide a set of general methods for constructing LM and robust LM tests. We then give detailed treatments for two general higher-order spatial linear regression models: namely the \(\mathtt{SARAR}(p,q)\) model and the \(\mathtt{MESS}(p,q)\) model, by providing a complete set of non-normality robust LM and bootstrap LM tests for higher-order spatial effects, and a complete set of LM and bootstrap LM tests robust against both unknown heteroskedasticity and non-normality. Monte Carlo experiments are run, and results show an excellent performance of the bootstrap LM-type tests.     

Testing spatial regression models under nonregular conditions

In time series context, estimation and testing issues with autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models are well understood. Similar issues in the context of spatial ARMA models for the disturbance of the regression, however, remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we discuss the problems of testing no spatial dependence in the disturbances against the alternative of spatial ARMA process incorporating the possible presence of spatial dependence in the dependent variable. The problems of conducting such a test are twofold. First, under the null hypothesis, the nuisance parameter is not identified, resulting in a singular information matrix (IM), which is a nonregular case in statistical inference. To take account of singular IM, we follow Davies (Biometrika 64(2):247–254, 1977; Biometrika 74(1):33–43, 1987) and propose a test procedure based on the supremum of the Rao score test statistic. Second, the possible presence of spatial lag dependence will have adverse effect on the performance of the test. Using the general test procedure of Bera and Yoon (Econom Theory 9:649–658, 1993) under local misspecification, we avoid the explicit estimation of the spatial autoregressive parameter. Thus our suggested tests are entirely based on ordinary least squares estimation. Tests suggested here can be viewed as a generalization of Anselin et al. (Reg Sci Urban Econ 26:77–104, 1996). We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed tests. Simulation results show that our tests have good finite sample properties both in terms of size and power, compared to other tests in the literature. We also illustrate the applications of our tests through several data sets.     

Horizontal market concentration: Theoretical insights from spatial models

This paper aims to further the study of horizontal mergers by reviewing the theory on spatial models that may be useful for their analysis. We examine the incentives conveyed by locations for undertaking merger and merger-related strategies, as well as the impact of the latter on strategic location choices. This literature review therefore focuses on the two-way relationship between horizontal market concentration and firm location.     

Clues for discriminating between moving average and autoregressive models in spatial processes

In this paper we try to provide additional insight into the problem of how to discriminate between the two most common spatial processes: the autoregressive and the moving average. This problem, whose analogous time series is apparently simple, acquires a certain complexity when it is considered in an irregular system of spatial units, mainly because there are few tools to carry out this discussion. Nevertheless, even with this lack, we believe that it is possible to make some progress using the methods available at present. In this paper we discuss the advantages and inconveniences of the different techniques that can help us to discriminate between both processes. We finish off the examination with a Monte Carlo exercise, and an application to the European regional income, which has enabled us to better understand the performance of several proposals such as the Lagrange Multipliers, the so-called Variance criterion and the tests of Vuong and Clarke.      

Locally adjusted LM test for spatial dependence in fixed effects panel data models

Lee and Yu (2010) propose spatial panel data models with one-way and two-way fixed effects. Debarsy and Ertur (2010) construct LM (Lagrange multiplier) and LR (likelihood ratio) tests in the one-way fixed effects model. He and Lin (2012) derive LM tests in the two-way fixed effects model. To guard against possible local misspecification, in this paper we apply Bera and Yoon (1993) principle, and construct locally adjusted (robust) LM tests for spatial dependence in both one-way and two-way fixed effects models. Monte Carlo experiment is carried out to show the advantage of using robust LM tests over the corresponding marginal and conditional versions.     

Errors in variables and spatial effects in hedonic house price models of ambient air quality

In the valuation of the effect of improved air quality through the estimation of hedonic models of house prices, the potential “errors in variables” aspect of the interpolated air pollution measures is often ignored. In this paper, we assess the extent to which this may affect the resulting empirical estimates for marginal willingness to pay (MWTP), using an extensive sample of over 100,000 individual house sales for 1999 in the South Coast Air Quality Management District of Southern California. We take an explicit spatial econometric perspective and account for spatial dependence and endogeneity using recently developed Spatial 2SLS estimation methods. We also account for both spatial autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in the error terms, using the Kelejian–Prucha HAC estimator. Our results are consistent across different spatial weights matrices and different kernel functions and suggest that the bias from ignoring the endogeneity in interpolated values may be substantial. This paper is part of a joint research effort with James Murdoch (University of Texas, Dallas) and Mark Thayer (San Diego State University). Their valuable input is gratefully acknowledged. The research was supported in part by NSF Grant BCS-9978058 to the Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science (CSISS), and by NSF/EPA Grant SES-0084213. Earlier versions were presented at the 5th International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics, Rome, Italy, May 2006, the 53th North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Toronto, ON, Nov. 2006, the 2007 Meetings of the Allied Social Science Assocations, Chicago, IL, Jan 2007, and at departmental seminars at the University of Illinois. Comments by discussants and participants are greatly appreciated. A special thanks to Harry Kelejian for his detailed and patient clarification of the HAC estimator. The usual disclaimer holds.     

A managerial model of investment: overlooked alternatives

The long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is tested for nine bilateral sterling exchange rates, using recently developed techniques on cointegration and seasonal integration. The empirical findings show that none of the exchange rates and relative prices contain seasonal unit roots, but all have an autoregressive unit root. The cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis as a long-run equilibrium condition for all countries concerned.     

An overlooked explanation of the declining saving rate

With a socioeconomic model of the determinants of savings that takes into account variables reflecting the abrupt changes in the divorce rate that occurred during the 1970s and the 1980s in the U.S., the increase in women's participation in the labour force, and their greater investrnent in education, we explain part of the measured decline in the saving rate. The uncertainty generated by the increased likelihood of divorces encourages households and women, in particular, to substitute human capital to financial or physical capital for precautionary savings.The authors thank Anna J. Schwartz and Pierre Perron for helpful suggestions and Anne-Marie El Hakim for her dedicated assistance on this project. The comments of the editor and of an anonymous referee contributed to improve the final version of the paper. The project was financed, in part, by a grant of the Quebec FCAR Fund.     

以民为天

偶翻《汉书》,读到《郦食其传》中“王者以民为天,而民以食为天”,深以为然。兴之所至,又查阅到汉初民本思想之集大成者贾宜在《新书·大政上》云:“闻之于政也,民无不为本也。国以为本,君以为本,吏以为本。”又,明末清初大思想家王夫之《读通鉴论》有云:“人之所同然者即为天”,“民心之大同者,理在是,天即在是。”综上可知,所谓“以民为天”,就是当权者要把人民作为安身立命的依靠,要把人民的利益看得最高、最大、最神圣。“以民为天”,乃治国之本。《书·五子之歌》曰:“民惟(通‘为’)邦本,本固邦宁。”意即百姓乃国家之根本,唯民生安宁…     

空间视角下珠三角生产性服务业对制造业效率影响分析

本文运用Moran指数、Lmerr、Lmlag等检验方法和空间计量模型回归分析,对珠江三角洲九市制造业效率的空间相关性进行检验.结果表明:珠三角九市制造业效率存在显著的空间正相关性;珠三角九市生产性服务业不仅对本地制造业效率的提升有着显著的正向作用,而且存在正向的空间外溢效应.     

Structural interactions in spatial panels

Until recently, considerable effort has been devoted to the estimation of panel data regression models without adequate attention being paid to the drivers of interaction amongst cross-section and spatial units. We discuss some new methodologies in this emerging area and demonstrate their use in measurement and inferences on cross-section and spatial interactions. Specifically, we highlight the important distinction between spatial dependence driven by unobserved common factors and those based on a spatial weights matrix. We argue that purely factor-driven models of spatial dependence may be inadequate because of their connection with the exchangeability assumption. The three methods considered are appropriate for different asymptotic settings; estimation under structural constraints when N is fixed and T → ∞, whilst the methods based on GMM and common correlated effects are appropriate when T ≫ N → ∞. Limitations and potential enhancements of the existing methods are discussed, and several directions for new research are highlighted.     

The overlooked costs of the permanent war economy: A market process approach

How does the permanent war economy interact, and subsume, the private, non-military economy? Can the two remain at a distance while sharing resource pools? This paper argues that they cannot. Once the U.S. embarked upon the path of permanent war, starting with World War II, the result was a permanent war economy. The permanent war economy continuously draws resources into the military sector at the expense of the private economy, even in times of peace. We explore the overlooked costs of this process. The permanent war economy does not just transfer resources from the private economy, but also distorts and undermines the market process which is ultimately responsible for improvements in standards of living.     

Second-order polynomial spatial error model. Global and local spatial dependence in unemployment in Andalusia

This paper analyses a second-order polynomial spatial structure in the residues of a regression model. We propose a new specification that captures spatial dependence on two different levels, adding a new autoregressive cycle to the errors of the classical spatial error model (SEM). The inference problems of the parameters are solved by means of maximum likelihood estimation. The model is confirmed to identify two spatial structures of spatial dependence, global and local, by an empirical application in the analysis of municipal unemployment in the Spanish region of Andalusia. Finally, Monte Carlo is implemented to evaluate the performance of this strategy in a context of finite size samples.     

外汇管理体制存在的几个主要问题

１９９４年以来,我国对外汇管理体制进行了一系列重大改革,取得了良好的效果,但不可否认也产生了许多问题。这些问题主要体现在以下几个方面：一、结售汇制存在的问题第一,央行自主性差。在强制结售汇情况下,各外汇银行的结算周转外汇余额中超过其最高限额比例的部分,必须在银行间外汇市场上卖出,而当余额低于最低限额比例时,必须补入。这一规定的初衷是为了防止银行的投机性囤积抛售外汇行为,以维持汇率稳定,但也使央行参与外汇市场的主动性大打折扣。当国际收支基本平衡时,这一点不太明显,因为即使银行结算外汇周转余额暂时超…     

高质量财务报告——一场重要的变革

本文以企业与其他市场参与者——劳务市场的劳动者,产品或服务市场的顾客,供应链上的供应商——的关系变革史为出发点,提出资本市场与公司远离的现象及其危害,进而引入了“高质量财务报告”(QualityFinancialReporting,QFR)的概念,试图以此为手段,将资本市场也纳入企业内部循环之中来提高企业整体竞争力。