Reapplication and extension: intergenerational mobility in the United States

This paper replicates and extends Solon's [Am. Econ. Rev. 82 (1992) 393–408.] article “Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States ”. The results confirm previous findings about the degree of transmission in earnings and consumption from fathers to sons. The correlation between fathers' and sons' earnings lies in the neighborhood of 0.4 and the correlation in consumption is larger. Using the sons' outcomes when they are 5 years older does not alter the estimates of the correlation in earnings, but the estimates of the correlation in consumption are smaller and closer to the estimates of the correlation in earnings. The estimates that use consumption data are sensitive to whether sons' 1984 or 1989 outcomes are used and to whether one adjusts for family size and structure.     

Estimation of sons' intergenerational earnings mobility in the presence of censoring

Based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I provide estimates of income mobility across generations for men. Special attention is paid to issues of censoring caused by a son's unemployment. Employing non‐parametric bounds estimates, I illustrate that previous income mobility estimates rely heavily on (unjustified) assumptions of exogenous selection. Assuming a son's potential income is instead a function of his reason for unemployment and work history, I re‐estimate mobility. Allowing for sampling variability, the range of feasible slopes consistent with these modified bounds restrictions is 0.27 to 0.55. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating intergenerational schooling mobility on censored samples: consequences and remedies

In this paper we estimate the impact of parental schooling on child schooling, focus on the problem that children who are still in school constitute censored observations, and evaluate three solutions to it: replacement of observed with expected years of schooling, maximum likelihood approach, and elimination of all school‐aged children. Using intergenerational data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study we test how the three correction methods deal with censored observations. The one that treats parental expectations as if they were realizations seems to fix the censoring problem quite well. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An alternative measure of intergenerational income mobility based on a random coefficient model

We propose an alternative measure of the degree to which income status is transmitted from one generation to another. Our indicator of intergenerational income mobility is based on a random coefficient model, which allows for variation in intergenerational mobility across families due to multiplicative unobserved family‐specific characteristics. This alternative measure suggests that intergenerational income persistence is typically stronger than when intergenerational income mobility is measured using the standard elasticity of sons' income with respect to fathers' income. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic monotonicity of the MLEs of parameters in exponential simple step-stress models under Type-I and Type-II censoring

In two recent papers by Balakrishnan et al. (J Qual Technol 39:35–47, 2007; Ann Inst Stat Math 61:251–274, 2009), the maximum likelihood estimators [^(q)]₁{\hat{\theta}_{1}} and [^(q)]₂{\hat{\theta}_{2}} of the parameters θ ₁ and θ ₂ have been derived in the framework of exponential simple step-stress models under Type-II and Type-I censoring, respectively. Here, we prove that these estimators are stochastically monotone with respect to θ ₁ and θ ₂, respectively, which has been conjectured in these papers and then utilized to develop exact conditional inference for the parameters θ ₁ and θ ₂. For proving these results, we have established a multivariate stochastic ordering of a particular family of trinomial distributions under truncation, which is also of independent interest.     

When less conditioning provides better estimates: overcontrol and endogenous selection biases in research on intergenerational mobility

Quality & Quantity - The counterfactual approach to causality has become the dominant approach to understand causality in contemporary social science research. Whilst most sociologists are...     

Alternative conceptual frameworks for the analysis of mobility tables and the log-linear models

This article contrasts two alternative conceptual frameworks for the analysis of mobility tables: the “structure vs. circulation” framework that in the past inspired the construction of “pure” mobility indices, and the “absolute vs. relative mobility” one, more recently proposed by Goldthorpe. Contrary to the beliefs of the past, the former cannot conveniently be expressed by the parameters of the saturated log-linear model. The latter, on the contrary, permits (via the language of odds and odds ratios) the coherent application of log-linear models. Moreover, it does not incur those theoretical difficulties which even the most sophisticated attempts to save the old framework incur (e.g. Sobel et al., 1985). In the third section of the article a contribution to the understanding of the analysis of mobility tables through odds ratios is given and the relation between odds ratios and the interaction parameters of the saturated model is shown.     

Structural changes and association in mobility tables: an integration and extension of existing approaches

Previous work distinguishing the effects of structural change from stratification processes on mobility chances include the mobility ratio, the standard log-linear model for mobility tables, and the models proposed by Hope, and by Sobel, Hout and Duncan. Each approach is in some respect problematic. Adapting ideas from each approach, we present a model for mobility tables that distinguishes structural effects unambiguously from stratification processes. Our model incorporates a base of structural constancy and no association, together with stable structural effects unaffected by the particular pattern of association, as well as estimates of the association affecting each cell. An important feature of the model is that it can provide estimates of the direct effects of stratification processes and their consequences.     

Prescribed conditional interaction structure models with application to the analysis of mobility tables

The present paper considers some new models for the analysis of multidimensional contigency tables. Although the theoretical background used here appeared already in Haberman (1974), prescribed conditional interaction (PCIN) models were introduced by Rudas (1987) and their mathematical properties were worked out by Leimer and Rudas (1988). These models are defined by prescribing the values of certain conditional interactions in the contingency table. Conditional interaction is defined here as the logarithm of an appropriately defined conditional odds ratio. This conditional odds ratio is a conditional version of a generalization of the well known odds ratio of a 2×2 table and that of the three factor interaction term of a 2×2×2 table and applies to any number of dimensions and any number of categories of the variables. The well known log-linear (LL) models are special PCIN models. Estimated frequencies under PCIN models and tests of fit can be computed using existing statistical software (e.g. BMDP). The paper describes the class of PCIN models and compares it to the class of association models of Goodman (1981). As LL models are widely used in the analysis of social mobility tables, application of more general PCIN models is illustrated.     

Evaluating intergenerational risks

Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). We respond to this call by proposing and axiomatizing probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU) through a key axiom ensuring that the social welfare order both is ethical and satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. PARDCLU yields a new useful perspective on intergenerational risks, is ethical in contrast to discounted utilitarianism, and avoids objections that have been raised against other ethical criteria. We show that PARDCLU handles situations with positive probability of human extinction and is linked to decision theory by yielding rank-dependent expected utilitarianism—but with additional structure—in a special case.     

Non-paternalistic intergenerational altruism revisited

In this paper, we prove the existence of a stationary equilibrium in an intergenerational stochastic game with non-paternalistic altruism as defined by Ray (1987). Our approach is based on the assumption that the transition probabilities are non-atomic. The utility function of each generation has a very general form including many special cases studied in the literature.     

Distribution-free tests of stochastic monotonicity

This article proposes a nonparametric test of monotonicity for conditional distributions and its moments. Unlike previous proposals, our method does not require smooth estimation of the derivatives of nonparametric curves. Distinguishing features of our approach are that critical values are pivotal under the null in finite samples and that the test is invariant to any monotonic continuous transformation of the explanatory variable. The test statistic is the sup-norm of the difference between the empirical copula function and its least concave majorant with respect to the explanatory variable coordinate. The resulting test is able to detect local alternatives converging to the null at the parametric rate n^−1/2$n^{-1/2}$, with n$n$ the sample size. The finite sample performance of the test is examined by means of a Monte Carlo experiment and an application to testing intergenerational income mobility.     

The political intergenerational welfare state

Using a three-period overlapping generations economy framework, we characterize an intergenerational welfare state with endogenous education and pension under voting. We show that although politically establishing Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) social security in isolation in a dynamically efficient economy will always reduce the capital investment and therefore the social welfare as expected, in contrast politically implementing education-pension policy package instead can improve both human and physical capital accumulation and social welfare over laissez faire. However for this the political influence of the old has to be small thus limiting the size of the PAYG social security program.     

Two concepts of monotonicity in two-person bargaining theory

Monotonicity has been suggested as a principle of fairness and a principle of bargaining. It has been proposed as a substitute to the “independence of irrelevant alternatives” axiom in bargaining solutions and thus applied to the determination of wages and employment. In this paper we will discuss the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution and show that it does not correspond to the monotonicity notion which follows from the “principle of bargaining” idea.     

Efficiency and monotonicity of bargaining solutions

A continuity axiom for bargaining solutions is introduced, which is satisfied by all Pareto optimal and continuous (in the Hausdorff metric) solutions. It is shown by two examples how this axiom can be used to characterize solutions having certain kind of monotonicity properties. One of the solutions is the lexicographic maximin solution. The other is the lexicographic extension of the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution. The former is an efficient (Pareto optimal) extension of the symmetric proportional solution. The latter is an efficient extension of the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution.     

Internalizing intergenerational externalities by regionalization

The emission of long-lived pollutants and public debt policies are related by the joint problem of intergenerational externalities. This paper examines both phenomena from the local perspective, in a model with interregional household mobility. We conclude that local environmental agencies have incentives to internalize all intergenerational pollution externalities, provided all rents of immobile production factors, including waste emissions, are appropriated by the regions. Contrary to widespread belief, however, neutrality of local public debt is not guaranteed in general. Shifts in the intertemporal pattern of local taxes change the net wealth of local property owners if distortionary residence-based taxes are imposed to service the local debt.     

Incorporating monotonicity and concavity conditions in flexible functional forms

Empirical economists using flexible functional forms often face the disturbing choice of drawing inferences from an approximation violating properties dictated by theory or imposing global restrictions that greatly restrict the flexibility of the functional form. Focusing on the cost function, this paper presents an alternative approach which imposes monotonicity and concavity properties only over the set of prices where inferences will be drawn. An application investigating elasticities for Berndt-Wood data set using the translog, generalized Leontief, and symmetric generalized McFadden flexible functional forms illustrates the technique. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.