The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?

The canonical New Keynesian Phillips curve specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal costs. This paper exploits projections of future real marginal costs generated by VAR models to assess the model’s ability to match the behavior of actual inflation in the Euro area. The model fits the data well at first sight. A set of bias-corrected bootstrapped confidence bands, however, reveals that this result is consistent with both a well fitting and a failing model. These findings also hold for the hybrid version of the Phillips curve.     

Long-run impacts of inflation across sectors in a small sample of countries

This article investigates the long-run effects of inflation on economic output for 10 sectors of the economy, with a sample of 7 countries. The analysis is done using long-run restrictions in a vector autoregression and reports long-run multipliers with bootstrapped confidence bands. The results suggest that some sectors seem to be affected differently than others, as well as significant heterogeneity across countries. The results suggest the strongest effects in the low inflation countries Germany and Japan as has been found in similar studies. In contrast to research using growth regressions, the evidence suggests a positive long-run effect of inflation on output.     

Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of stable VAR models by means of the delta method. These covariance matrices can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions to assess the underlying estimation uncertainty. The usefulness of the formulae for empirical work is illustrated by an application to inflation and output gap data for the U.S. economy indicating the existence of a significant short-run Phillips-curve tradeoff.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

The sensitivity to key data imputations of recent estimates of income poverty and inequality in South Africa

Existing literature using South African censuses reports an increase in both poverty and inequality over the 1996 to 2001 period. This paper assesses the robustness of these results to a number of weaknesses in the personal income variable. We use a sequential regression multiple imputation approach to impute missing values and to explicitly assess the influence of implausible income values and different rules used to convert income that is measured in bands into point incomes. Overall our results for 1996 and 2001 confirm the major findings from the existing literature while generating more reliable confidence intervals for the key parameters of interest than are available elsewhere.     

Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area

Several considerations suggest that the ECB may respond to EMU-wide output gaps in setting policy: estimated reaction functions indicate that central banks respond to output gaps; a Taylor rule in which the central bank responds to inflation and the gap accounts for recent movements in interest rates in the EMU-area; and optimal control exercises conducted in estimated econometric models suggest that reacting to the gap may be optimal, even if the central bank cares solely about inflation. In this paper, we obtain point estimates with associated confidence bands of the EMU-wide output gap using UC models.     

Futures price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances

We analyze the pricing and lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices of CO₂ emission allowances in the EU emission trading scheme. We show that the cost-of-carry hypothesis between spot and futures prices holds for the trial period. In this period we focus on how fast a deviation from equilibrium due to shocks is restored. We derive testable restrictions on the loading coefficients and the short term dynamics within a vector error correction model. Previous studies in this field did not take into account the effects of lagged differences in the determination of the speed of adjustment. The results indicate that deviations from equilibrium are restored faster for the futures price series maturing in 2006 than for the futures price series maturing in 2007. Furthermore, we conduct an impulse response analysis using local projections with conditional confidence bands. Finally, we give an outlook for the Kyoto commitment period which is already running. In this time period so far we find that the cost-of-carry hypothesis does not hold.     

Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model

Using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) model, we analyse the transmission of foreign and domestic shocks to a small open emerging economy under different policy regimes. Narrower confidence bands around the SVARMA responses compared to the SVAR responses, advocate the suitability of this framework for analysing the propagation of economic shocks over time. Malaysia is an interesting small open economy that has experienced an ongoing process of economic transition and development. The Malaysian government imposed exchange rate and capital control measures following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Historical decomposition and variance decomposition allow contrast of shocks propagating under different policy regimes. Malaysia is highly exposed to foreign shocks, particularly under the managed float exchange rate system. During the pegged exchange rate period, Malaysian monetary policymakers experienced some breathing space to focus on maintaining price and output stability. In the post-pegged period, Malaysia's exposure to foreign shocks increased and in recent times are largely driven by world commodity price and global activity shocks.     

Thailand-Japan＇s Volume of Trade Influencing on Socio-economic and Well-Being Development Using Maximum Entropy Bootstrap

This paper is preliminary information on some empirical findings based on an analysis of Thailand＇s macroeconomic data. The purpose of the study is to quantify social-economic well-being development with special emphasis on poverty. The maximum entropy bootstrap was presented that did not require the property of stationarity. Moreover, the methodology was stratified both the ergodic theorem and the central limit theorem. Thailand＇s GINI index and Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade data cover the 14-year period from 1998 to 2011. There is a statistically significant negative non-linear relationship between endogenous Thailand＇s GINI index and exogenous Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade. The results confirmed that every lagged one percent increase in Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade influenced by a decrease of Thailand＇s GINI index coefficient 0.039 percent with the asymmetric around 0-almost closed to range condition -0.034824348 at 2.5%.     

A New Approach to Human Development Index

Human development Index (HDI) was introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990. For the first four years UNDP used the maximum and the minimum values of the data series to standardize the variables. In 1994 the procedure of standardization was modified with the introduction of arbitrary fixed minimum and maximum values for each variable. Both methods have merits and demerits. The present study proposes an alternative measure of estimating HDI which bridges the gap between the methods of computing HDI proposed by the UNDP in 1990 and 1994. This study also incorporates unadjusted per capita real gross domestic product (PCRGDP) instead of adjusted PCRGDP used by the UNDP. The data from the Human Development Report (HDR) 2000 for 174 countries are used to test the robustness of the suggested index and the results are compared to those of the HDI. Also average values for full sample as well as top 20 percent and bottom 20 percent are offered to show the superiority of our method to that of the UNDP's HDI.     

Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area

This paper tests the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the aggregate Euro Area, in an unobserved components model of stochastic NAIRU and trend output featuring the Phillips equation and the Okun law as main identifying equations, with quarterly data for 1970:I-2002:III. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The results prove to be robust to alternative lag length structures of the model, and to alternative non-linear functional forms. The trend-cycle decompositions estimated with the model capture the main features of the Euro Area’s recent macroeconomic record.First version received: 1 September 2003 / Final version received: June 2004CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.We thank comments on earlier versions by Fabio Canova, Miguel St Aubyn, Alvaro Almeida, Pete Richardson, Kevin Ross, and two anonymous referees. We acknowledge James D. Hamilton’s help with the confidence bands. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Consumer confidence and rational expectations in the United States compared with the United Kingdom

This paper examines the relationship between consumer confidence and the Rational Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis in the USA and compares the results with those obtained for the UK. The study expands previous analysis by defining consumption as motor vehicles, goods excluding motor vehicles, and services. The results suggest that predictive ability of the USA's consumer confidence is less than that of the UK, but that contrary to the UK study, confidence does not predict future consumption growth of services and is therefore consistent with Rational Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis.     

A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index

This article refines the way consumer confidence survey data are used in forecasting models. The refinement is easy to describe: it extends existing models by controlling for statistically significant changes in consumer confidence index values. The motivation behind this refinement is simply that not all changes in the confidence index are statistically significant, and mean index values alone provide a noisy signal. Using Michigan Index of Consumer Confidence from 1967 through 2013, we show that controlling for significant versus insignificant changes in the consumer confidence index materially enhances the explanatory power of household expenditure forecasting models.     

ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options

Are the wide bands adopted in the summer of 1993 too large? The official answer is that wide bands offer a protection against speculative pressure, while exchange rates may be kept within narrower margins at the discretion of the authorities. Yet if exchange rate fixity and predictability are desirable, as implicitly assumed by the mere existence of the system, there must exist a trade-off between protection against speculative pressure and predictability. In that case, the bandwidth chosen should be as narrow as possible and yet unlikely to be challenged by the markets. This paper offers estimates of 'safe' bandwidths. For the long-term member currencies (French franc, peseta, Danish krone and escudo), the existing 15% bands are found to be unnecessarily wide: narrower 3.5% bands would capture at least 95% of expected exchange rate realizations over a three-month horizon. For the lira, Finnish markka and Swedish krone, wider bands of 5–6% would capture a similar amount of the exchange rate distribution. The pound's exchange rate expectations are the most dispersed, requiring 8.4% bands to capture 95% of exchange rate expectations.     

Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective

This paper offers a pioneer attempt to unveil the time-varying impact of consumer confidence on GDP growth. The empirical analysis is based on a state space model with time-varying coefficients, which is employed on a dataset from 11 New EU Member States. It is shown that the impact of consumer confidence (reflecting the overall uncertainty level in the country) skyrockets in the 2008 Great Recession, providing evidence that the recent crisis was to some extent psychologically governed. After that, the influence of consumer confidence on GDP mostly stabilizes at earlier levels. The EU accession seems not to play an important role in the observed relationship. The obtained conclusions are quite robust across countries and remain intact upon the inclusion of additional control variables in the model. A possible solution for keeping the psychological determinants of the crisis under control is a prompt, coherent, and clearly communicated crisis management policy, which might help preventing a momentous drop of consumer confidence and overall uncertainty.     

Uncertainty and Consumption in Keynes's Theory of Effective Demand

Keynesian uncertainty normally exercises influence over effective demand via private investment. This paper expands the scope of influence of uncertainty to comprise private consumption as well. When private spending is explicitly made subject to uncertainty the individual consumer is forced to take active steps to make the future predictable. Contracted, sticky money prices are key tools in the consumer's efforts to keep uncertainty at a minimum and match earnings with consumption costs. However, even if prices are successfully contracted there is still need for preparedness against contingencies. Consumers therefore regulate their propensity to consume with reference to their confidence in the future: the propensity to consume is high when confidence is strong and low when confidence is weak. Because of its effect on the propensity to consume, consumer confidence exercises a significant influence on macroeconomic activity in general.     

坚持理论自信,展示大学思政课的理论魅力

对特色理论的理论自信是在与其他理论相比较过程中培育的,是源于实践的反复检验得以确立的。思政课教师的理论自信包含对马克思主义的理论自信和对自己业务能力、理论功底的自信。思政课教师应做到信仰坚定、理论功底扎实。坚持理论自信,就是要在课堂上敢于坚持中国特色社会主义理论,旗帜鲜明地坚守和捍卫马克思主义,从而增强学生对坚持走中国特色社会主义道路的信心,达到正能量的释放、传递和扩大,展示思政课的理论魅力。     

Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework

This paper investigates uncertainty around point estimates of the euro area NAIRU in a state space framework. The relative accuracy of alternative measures of uncertainty for state space models are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. A direct bootstrap method yields confidence intervals with lower coverage probability than confidence intervals based on mean squared errors (MSE) approximations. The degree of uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU is estimated with a trivariate state space model. The direct bootstrap method shows the narrowest confidence interval compared with the MSE approximations. However, the wider intervals based on MSE approximations are narrow enough for the identification of some periods in time where observed unemployment and the NAIRU differ significantly.     

Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach

This study aims to analyse the effects of the consumer confidence on economic activity for the US market. We use the empirical factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) method, which enables us to incorporate a wide range of economic activity factors into the analysis. The consumer confidence index (CCI) is chosen as the principal variable that is presumed to represent the degree of optimism on the state of economic activity. The results show that consumer confidence and economic activity are strongly correlated for manufacturing-related factors, such as industrial production and inventories. We also observe strong relation among CCI and personal consumption expenditures, as well as housing market variables.     

A contribution to forecast theory

The overall basis of forecasting can be stated as a relation between the projection of the known values of the present and the uncertainty of the future. Information and uncertainty factors have been quantified by the “choice of alternatives” concept used in information theory. There is a strong analogy between information theory and the sum of squares equations used in regression. The regression equations can also be expressed in terms of information and uncertainty. The analogy is used as a background explanation for the relation between the length of the backcast and the confidence in the forecast. The relation is shown by the loss of confidence in the standard interval at the mean of the backcast time to the interval at forecast time. Confidence curves and tables are shown for the normal and t distributions using the 90% confidence interval as projected to various future times. Other intervals can be computed by changing the t value. The last part is a brief discussion of confidence envelopes for three and four dimensions.     

Trade Policy Transparency and Investor Confidence: Some Implications for an Effective Trade Policy Review Mechanism

This paper is concerned with the value of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, particularly its transparency role and its potential role in policy stability, for investor confidence in developing countries. The implications of reduced risk and uncertainty regarding trade policy for investor confidence, and ultimately for the capital stock and the long-run structure of production, are examined in an analytical model. Certainty equivalence is employed to assess the general equilibrium effects of risk and uncertainty. Their reduction can boost risk-adjusted returns, leading to an increase in long-run levels of capital.