On relief value (deprival value) versus fair value measurement for contract liabilities: a comment and a response

Horton, Macve and Serafeim (2011) (HMS) argue for the use of relief value for the measurement of certain types of liabilities, and that the replacement liability (an entry price) is normally the appropriate measure of relief. I had previously argued elsewhere for an exit price (normally, the performance value, PV). In this paper, I first try to clarify the terminology used, and then I show why PV rather than RL is usually appropriate for the industries in HMS' example and for some others. My scope is more modest than that of HMS because I do not address revenue/profit issues, which I think should be dealt with separately.     

Barrier present value maximization for a diffusion model of insurance surplus

In this paper, we study a barrier present value (BPV) maximization problem for an insurance entity whose surplus process follows an arithmetic Brownian motion. The BPV is defined as the expected discounted value of a payment made at the time when the surplus process reaches a high barrier level. The insurance entity buys proportional reinsurance and invests in a Black–Scholes market to maximize the BPV. We show that the maximal BPV function is a classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and is three times continuously differentiable using a novel operator. Its associated optimal reinsurance-investment control policy is determined by verification techniques.     

Fair value accounting and the present value fallacy: The need for an alternative conceptual framework

The major functions of company accounting identified by the IASB and the FASB are (1) reporting on ‘the custody and safekeeping’ of the company's resources and (2) reporting on ‘their efficient and profitable use’. The joint IASB/FASB project for improving the conceptual framework for financial reporting is directed towards better performance of both functions within the conventional ‘accrual’ system of accounting through the use of ‘fair value’. Although the disclosure of fair values is a development to be welcomed, the requirement that changes in fair value should be reported as ‘gains’ or ‘losses’ appears to rely on the ‘Hicksian’ concept of income as a theoretical ideal.The object of the present paper is to establish that this concept is fundamentally flawed by what may be called the ‘present value fallacy’. Even in an economic utopia of perfectly competitive markets (with no discrepancies between objective market values and subjective present values), the concept of income or profit as value growth can be seriously misleading.If the prevailing Hicksian conceptual framework is discarded in favour of an alternative based on Fisher's theory of income, the two major, but incompatible, functions of financial reporting can be carried out independently and without compromise. The conventional ‘hybrid’ system of accrual accounting, in which backward-looking measures of volume and forward-looking measures of value are mixed together, would be replaced by a ‘segregated’ system in which they are kept strictly apart. A logical extension of Fisher's theory suggests the disclosure by agent/managers of the return on investment that they are planning to deliver to their principal/owners. This type of ‘decision-useful information’ is vital for the efficient operation of capital markets and for removing the accounting incentive to short-termism.     

Kidnap and ransom insurance: A strategically useful,often undiscussed,marketplace tool for international operations

With kidnaping rates rising, the disruptive forces of kidnaping threaten the stability and success of corporate investment projects and put stress on appropriate corporate governance response methodologies. While kidnaping targets vary considerably among countries where it frequently occurs, most often the goal of kidnapers is money from ransom payments. Financial consequences of a kidnap ransom payment can be severe for companies, and psychological damage can be lasting to employees and their families. Given the increasingly global nature of business and increasing expansion into less politically and legally stable emerging markets, kidnap, ransom, and extortion pose a problem for management of corporations wishing to take advantage of emerging market opportunities. Kidnap and Ransom (K&R) Insurance is a risk control technique used by about 75% of Fortune 500 companies, nongovernmental organizations, and an increasing percentage of small to medium sized companies. It is a bundled package policy that includes the purchase of an insurance policy to indemnify the company for the costs of kidnap, ransom, and extortion. Such policies can also provide protective consulting beforehand, provide crisis response and negotiation assistance, as well as psychological support services after the fact. In this paper, we describe the K&R policy, its history, other nonfinancial corporate benefits provided by K&R policies, and discuss its use by corporate managers for the benefit of corporate, financial, and personnel stability. It can also be used in course on managing international risk.     

Energy pricing: 8 Proposals for a better fuel market

If energy policy is to get the mix of fuels right, it must ensure that consumers are faced with their true relative costs. That requires radical changes in the way prices are set as between nationalised industries as well as for commercial and domestic users.     

The information content of funds from operations (FFO) for real estate investment trusts (REITs)

This paper examines the information content of alternative summary performance measures, using stock returns as the benchmark, for 138 REITs during 1994–1996. This paper tests for both incremental and relative information content of FFO (a voluntarily disclosed, accounting-based performance measure that is the industry standard for REITs) compared to GAAP net income (EPS), cash from operations, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Results indicate that both FFO and EPS consistently provide incremental information content with only weak evidence that EPS has greater relative information content and no evidence for the other summary performance measures.     

Cultural theory and risk perception: a proposal for a better measurement

Why do members of the public disagree – sharply and persistently – about facts on which expert scientists largely agree? We designed a study to test a distinctive explanation: the cultural cognition of scientific consensus. The ‘cultural cognition of risk’ refers to the tendency of individuals to form risk perceptions that are congenial to their values. The study presents both correlational and experimental evidence confirming that cultural cognition shapes individuals’ beliefs about the existence of scientific consensus, and the process by which they form such beliefs, relating to climate change, the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the effect of permitting concealed possession of handguns. The implications of this dynamic for science communication and public policy‐making are discussed.     

The present value model with time-varying discount rates: Implications for commercial property valuation and investment decisions

A vector autoregressive model is developed for predicting cash flow and returns in the private (unsecuritized) commercial property markets. The model predicts both of these variables quite well during the sample period. The forecasting model is then used to develop a simple buy/sell rule for identifying property market value peaks and troughs. An improved present value model, taking account of the predictability of property returns, is described and found to track historical market values much more closely than does either the appraisal-based index or the traditional present value model with constant expected returns. Analysis in this paper suggests that most of the change in commercial property market values has been due to changes in expected returns, rather than to changes in expected future operating cash flows.     

Strategic asset allocation for individual investors: the impact of the present value of Social Security benefits

This paper demonstrates the dramatic effect of Social Security wealth on individuals’ asset allocation. We first discuss why Social Security wealth should be included in portfolio asset-mix decisions. We then draw parallels between Social Security benefits and inflation-indexed treasury bonds to help quantify the present value of Social Security benefits. Finally, we show the portfolio impact of including Social Security wealth under several asset-mix decision rules. Excluding Social Security wealth from the asset mix decision results in suboptimal portfolios. Including Social Security wealth provides an incentive for including more stock in the asset mix.     

Risk-adjusted value allocation for (non-traded) assets with performance ratios

We propose a new valuation principle for possibly non-traded assets based on an implicit definition of a benchmark. The valuation principle allows taking (default and shortfall) risk constraints explicitly into account. The resulting risk-adjusted value functional is monotonic, positively homogeneous, partially concave and allows for an additive allocation of risk-adjusted values of non-traded assets in a portfolio. The valuation principle is applied to the problem of hedging and pricing in incomplete markets. Furthermore, accounting for non-traded assets is considered and we derive a risk-adjusted balance sheet for non-deterministic cash streams.     

Complex stylized facts of the Mexican economy: a hirschmanian perspective (to attack the “fear of growing”, more and better)

We elaborate some complex stylized facts related to the Mexican economy. The analyzed period runs from 1960 to 2013 with selected subperiods. Our main findings are: 1) there are involuntary idle capacities in the manufacturing industries; 2) the growth of the Mexican economy is not balanced but unbalanced; 3) there is an inflation-free environment. This fact is consistent with the previous ones; 4) there is a mixed of efficient and inefficient sequences of investment; 5) the stimulus of manufacturing exports on macroeconomic performance has been offset by its imports; 6) the deficits in manufacturing balance and in the current account have been financed without difficulty. Of course, this financing capacity constitutes a second best condition; 7) according to a backward linkages analysis, the towing capacity of manufacturing sector over the Mexican economy would be a larger one if the manufacturing imports penetration had not been so intense since the trade liberalization; and 8) the size of the positive effect of the manufacturing sector on the economy and on the non-manufacturing sectors diminished since the early eighties. Our complex stylized facts highlight the need for an upgrading of the current economic policies.     

Searching for value relevance of book value and earnings: a case of premium versus discount firms

We examine the premium/discount firm characteristic that fundamentally affects the value relevance of two key accounting line items, earnings and book values. We argue that from the perspective of both the residual income and option-style valuation models, the relative valuation roles of earnings and book values differ fundamentally between firms that trade at a premium vis-à-vis discount to book value. We find that book values play a significantly more important role in equity valuation than earnings when firms trade at a discount. We also find that other known influential conditions, such as the sign of earnings (Collins et al. in Acc Rev 74(1):29–61, 1999) or the relative levels of earnings and book value (Burgstahler and Dichev in Acc Rev 72(2):187–215, 1997), become inconsequential when the premium/discount condition of the firm is controlled for. The discovered relationships between the relative valuation roles of book values and earnings and the discount/premium characteristics of the firm are robust to the effect of time, information environment and the industry of the firm.     

Using predictive value, sensitivity and specificity to interpret laboratory tests: PSA for the diagnosis of prostate cancer

The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial yields a means to evaluate PSA screening for prostate cancer detection. The receiver operating characteristic curve shows that PSA above 2.5 provides optimum sensitivity and specificity for prostate cancer diagnosis by needle biopsy. However, the maximum positive predictive value of 48% occurs at PSA above 4.0 and does not increase at higher PSA cutpoints. Consideration of test sensitivity and specificity alone is not sufficient for optimal interpretation of test results.     

The value line enigma (1965–1978): A case study of performance evaluation issues

The performance of Value Line Investment Survey recommendations made between 1965 and 1978 is evaluated by applying a future benchmark technique. The future benchmark technique avoids selection bias problems associated with using historic benchmarks as well as known difficulties of using Capital Asset Pricing Model benchmarks. Potential problems (implicit in the technique) are discussed and resolved within the conduct of the experiment. Results indicate statistically significant abnormal performance when future benchmarks are computed using a market model.     

Strategy on a Page: An ArchiMate‐based tool for visualizing and designing strategy

Nowadays, organizations need to be able to adjust more rapidly to the circumstances of their environment, at a strategic, tactical, and operational level. However, most software tools are designed to support the tactical and operational levels, while at a strategic level there are not many options available. In this paper, we propose a software tool which supports modelling of strategic information, covering several well‐known strategy techniques, and also facilitates the design of highly customizable management dashboards. To validate our proposed software tools, we perform two case studies, with two inherently different organizations, namely a public university and an investment fund.     

Total efficient risk priority number (TERPN): a new method for risk assessment

Safety is one of the most important issues in modern industrial plants and industrial activities. The Safety Engineering role is to ensure acceptable safety levels of production systems, not only to respect local laws and regulations, but also to improve production efficiency and to reduce manufacturing costs. For these reasons, the choice of a proper model for risk assessment is crucial. In this context, the present research aims to propose a new method, called Total Efficient Risk Priority Number (TERPN), able to classify risks and identify corrective actions in order to obtain the highest risk reduction with the lowest cost. The main scope is to suggest a simple, but suitable model for ranking risks in a company, to reach the maximum effectiveness of prevention and protection strategies. The TERPN method is an integration of the popular Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) with other important factors in risk assessment.