Rating timing differences between the two leading agencies: Standard and Poor's and Moody's

This study examines the impacts of rating change timing differences between the two leading agencies, namely, Standard and Poor's and Moody's with particular focus on the stock market impact of Standard and Poor's Foreign Currency rating changes and Moody's Bonds and Notes rating changes. The analysis focuses on whether there is a rating change pattern between these agencies and undertakes a comparison of the impact of rating changes on the markets between single rating changes and joint rating changes. The paper equally determines whether rating changes induce different reactions depending on the level of rating. The findings indicate that in contrast to the results obtained in previous literature, rating change announcements do not impart additional information to the market. An interesting finding is that joint downgrades seem to impact on the market only in-between the announcement dates for the two agencies. In addition, the reason of the rating change needs to be taken into consideration to assess the stock market reaction to rating changes.     

Asymmetries exist in the Feldstein–Horioka relationship

Most studies assume symmetry between saving and investment changes. They are wrong to do so. We model the response of investment to positive and negative changes in saving for 17 OECD countries from 1960 to 2015. We use both panel and time series methods. We find that negative changes in saving have a stronger effect on investment than positive changes in saving do. In the short run, causality only runs from negative changes in saving to investment. In the long run, both negative and positive changes in saving Granger cause investment. Models relying on saving-investment symmetry in the long run are called into question. Policies assuming symmetric effects throughout the business cycle are similarly flawed.     

Implementing and interpreting event studies of regulatory changes

The study of the stock price reaction to an event is a standard tool in economics and finance. The spate of regulatory changes in recent years provides ample opportunity for such studies. However, event studies of regulatory changes present a number of challenges. Analysts must carefully design and interpret tests of hypotheses regarding the effects of regulatory changes because of the nature of the regulatory process and financial markets. I discuss the way to test for the impact of regulatory changes in an event study. I also comment on what event studies can and cannot tell us about the effects of regulatory changes, and on ways to more effectively implement them.     

Project appraisal in development assistance

The debate on development theory and changes in planning theory have led, in the last decade, to extensive changes in project evaluation methodology. Hans Lembke outlines these changes and discusses their relevance for the decision-making process.     

A cross-cultural analysis of price responses to environmental changes

In planning the marketing mix for a product, managers implicitly respond to changes in both their internal and external environments. This paper studies managers' judgments of how they would respond to changes in their own product costs asnd competitor's prices. A manager could react to these by focusing on new products, new markets, or the marketing mix for the current product market. We concentrate on the third. We focus on a set of potential reactions that could include a change in price. Data from managers in both the United States and Europe are used to study pricing reactions to hypothetical scenarios of environmental changes. We estimate relationships between the managerial response and changes in the environment for different types of businesses in different countries.     

The Real Exchange Rate,the Ghanaian Trade Balance,and the J-curve

Using linear and nonlinear specifications, we studied the effects of real exchange rate changes on the trade balance of Ghana during the period 1986Q1 to 2016Q3. We found no evidence in support of the short- and long-run impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance in the linear specification. The J-curve is refuted in this case. In contrast, exchange rate changes affected the trade balance in the nonlinear specification. Depreciations improve the trade balance in the long run, but appreciations have no impact. Hence, exchange rate changes have nonlinear effects on the trade balance. This is consistent with the J-curve phenomenon.     

中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究

我国未来住房需求的变化将受到人口、家庭户数量和结构变动的影响。在人口预测的基础上,采用扩展的户主率家庭预测模型,假定分家庭规模、户主年龄、性别的户主率不变或变化的情况下,预测未来家庭户的数量、结构情况。在此基础上,结合2000年普查得到的不同家庭户类型住房情况的信息,对未来30年我国城乡居民住房面积和间数的需求进行了预测。由于人口和家庭户的增长,我国居民住房面积和间数的需求在未来三十年将持续增长;由于家庭户数量增长速度超过人口数量增长的速度,按家庭户变化预测的未来居民住房的需求较大;由于人口和家庭户结构的变化,未来三十年的住房需求在不同时期的情况有所不同,年均新增住房需求的增长在2015年前虽波动起伏,但变化不大; 2015年之后,年均新增住房需求将逐步下降。     

The Decline of the Traditional American Department Store

Over the past five years, retailing in the United States has been going through many changes. As a result of these changes the traditional American department store, as an insititution, has been steadily on the decline. We provide an explanation for this devline by focusing on environmental factors an ordganizational changes. Environmental factors include changing consumer attitudes toward mass marketing, demographic changes forcing a suburban as opposed to urban focus, competition and overstoring, and new store social class distinctions. Organizational changes include the introduction of "Just-In-Time" (JIT) as a retail concept, a "trading up" in the merchandise mix, declinging customer services, the increased cost of reaching customers, maintenance of high gross margins, the move from local to regional to national presence, expansion leading to a loss of operational control, and the erosion of consumer trust in the institution.     

Household expenditure on poultry and seafood in the U.S.A. - a cross-sectional analysis

This study investigates the determinants of household expenditures on poultry and seafood using the 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Higher income and larger households with a better-educated and older household head spend more on poultry, especially during the fourth quarter of the year, than others. Higher income and north-eastern households with a non-white and better-educated household head spend more on seafood than others. Poultry expenditures are more sensitive to changes in household size than to changes in household income. In contrast, seafood expenditures are more sensitive to changes in household income than to changes in household size.     

The influence of changing trade patterns on displacements of labor

Although there is extensive literature detailing the change in industrial employment resulting from changes in trading patterns, there is no significant literature that translates these changes in labor demand to actual worker hardship. This study provides evidence of the labor market effects of changes in import and export competition throughout the 1980s by focusing on the level of industry displacements, workers involuntarily separated from their industry of employment, rather than changes in the level of industry employment. The results therefore shed light on the number of workers who were measurably injured by changing trade patterns.

The analysis is based on a general equilibrium specification that yields an equation describing the influence of specific industry measures of competitiveness, along with changes in the aggregate environment, on displacements. This equation is subsequently estimated using import and export transactions prices maintained by the U.S. Department of Labor in conjunction with data from a series of Displaced Workers Surveys. Counterfactual analysis provides an estimate of the number of displacements resulting from changes in international competitiveness. These counterfactuals reveal that, overall, changes in the competitive position of the United States reduced the number of workers dislocated throughout the 1980s.     

The effects of devaluation and foreign price disturbances under rational expectations

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in the exchange rate and the foreign price level in a stochastic model in which domestic agents form expectations about possible changes in these variables. The general conclusion to emerge is that the impact of such changes on the domestic economy depend critically upon (a) the extent to which such changes are predicted, and (b) in some cases the permanency with which they are expected to prevail. The short-run and dynamic effects of a number of specific changes are examined in detail and it is shown how a variety of transitional paths may arise, depending upon the accuracy of expectations with respect to both timing and magnitude.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

The effectiveness of strategic planning: competitiveness in the Brazilian supermarket sector

This paper considers the relative impact of management strategic planning practices and economic changes on company performance. The paper focuses on the Brazilian supermarket sector during the period 1988–1999. This was a period marked by significant changes in economic and competitive conditions. Using sales figures as indicators of company performance, ANOVA tests were applied. The results derived suggest that variables representing changes in economic conditions and strategic planning were both statistically significant when they were used to explain performance differences among Brazilian supermarket operations. Differences in company management practices were found to play a more important role than changes in the environment. However, the results clearly suggest that management by itself was unable to take advantage of the upward and downward movements in the economy to modify the relative competitive positions of companies operating within the market. This finding challenges the existing literature on strategic planning.     

Flexible labour markets and individualized employment: the beginnings of a new Japanese HRM system?

In an earlier study we reported that human resource management (HRM) in Japan was best characterized by continuity with some changes to assessment and pay practices. It is now over five years since we mapped out the changes taking place in Japanese HRM. This contribution reviews some of the changes over this period and considers the future directions of HRM. The essay commences with a discussion of the important contextual factors and issues underpinning HRM including employer proposals for reform. The next section then explores changes taking place in employment, remuneration and evaluation. This is supplemented by a more general assessment of the key changes occurring in Japanese HRM. The essay concludes with a discussion on why such changes are occurring, whether the changes constitute a convergence towards the Western model and the implications for HRM and theory development.     

Reformoptionen des Länderfinanzausgleichs unter politökonomischer Betrachtung

The German states Bavaria and Hesse have initiated a legal case against the German fiscal equalisation system. The German Federal Constitutional Court has already made rulings concerning this system on three occasions, and thus this new case is not expected to result in major changes. Consequently, states may have to depend on the Bundestag and Bundesrat to implement any changes to the system. Minor reforms would be likely to pass muster with the Court. This is important, as even minor changes can have a significant impact on states’ revenues. This study analyses whether there are policy reform options that could attain majorities in the Bundestag and Bundesrat and estimates the possible effects of the policies on states’ revenues.     

粮食价格波动对主产区福利影响的实证分析

基于粮食主产区1978—2009年粮食生产与消费的相关数据,在对粮食供给弹性和需求弹性估计的基础上,运用Minot福利效应模型,分析粮食价格波动引致主产区福利变化及其影响。结果表明:主产区生产福利变动与粮食生产价格变动具有同向作用关系,而消费福利变动与粮食零售价格变动具有负向作用关系;粮食价格变动引起主产区福利变化的长期福利效应优于短期福利效应,但整体效果不明显。     

Capital buffer and credit‐risk adjustments in Islamic and conventional banks

The main purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the interactions between changes in capital buffer and changes in credit risk, using panel data of Islamic and conventional banks located in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1999–2016. A negative two‐way relationship between the changes in capital buffer and the changes in credit risk is found for the two types of banks, that is, banks tend to decrease their capital buffers in response to an increase in risk exposure and limit their risky activities in response to an increase in their capital buffers. Dividing our period of study into three subperiods to assess the effect of the last financial crisis 2007–08 on the adjustment process, we point out the negative bidirectional relationship between the changes in capital buffer and the changes in credit risk of the two types of banks is present for the three subperiods except the case of conventional banks during the precrisis period. Moreover, we provide evidence that Islamic banks adjust their capital buffer in response to the changes in credit risk regardless of the existence or not of a deposit insurance scheme. In contrast, the negative two‐way relationship between the changes in capital buffer and the changes in credit risk in conventional banks is found only in countries without deposit insurance schemes.     

Measuring the Impact of Reserve Requirement Changes Using Interest Rate Spreads: Evidence from Costa Rica

Researchers have proposed several different theories regarding the effects of reserve requirement changes. One theory suggests that reserve requirements represent a tax on financial institutions. This theory is usually tested by examining stock price responses to announced reserve requirement changes. Reliable, historical stock price information for Costa Rica firms is generally not publicly available. In this paper, the spread between deposit rates and loan rates is used as a proxy for firm profitability. The results indicate a complex response to reserve requirement changes that is dependent on bank classification.     

On the Hicks–Allen Definition of Complements and Substitutes with Discrete Changes in Prices

For discrete price changes, compensated cross‐price effects for two goods need not be equal if the household consumes three or more goods. In this paper I ask whether compensated cross‐price effects must have the same sign even if they differ in magnitude. I show that with three or more goods, the answer to this question is ‘no’. For discrete price changes, with more than two goods, the signs of the compensated cross‐price effects for two goods can differ depending on which price changes. Hence, the Hicks–Allen definition of complements and substitutes can also differ depending on which price changes.     

Real Exchange Rates and ASEAN Trade

This paper systematically analyses the longer-term effects on the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) trade of changes in competitiveness brought about by changing real exchange rates. We introduce a model to explain exports from four ASEAN countries which highlights the role of real exchange rates. Specifically, we provide evidence on the price responsiveness of export demand. The results indicate that (i) there have been large changes in real exchange rates; and (ii) the pattern of ASEAN trade responds to relative prices (real exchange rates). Suprisingly, however, the impact of observed changes in real exchange rates on ASEAN trade is only relatively minor.