我国对外贸易结构对OFDI 影响的研究 ——基于动态面板模型的实证分析

本文使用2003～2010年我国对外直接投资的面板数据,采用GMM估计方法进行动态面板数据分析,考察了我国对外贸易结构对OFDI的影响。对世界样本的研究发现:我国制成品出口比重对OFDI有显著的促进作用,而对我国初级产品进口集中度、我国与东道国的贸易结合度以及总产品出口竞争力却会产生抑制作用。对发展中国家样本的分析则显示我国制成品出口竞争力对OFDI有显著的促进作用,而对我国制成品出口比重和总产品出口竞争力却没有显著的影响。     

The effect of inward FDI on outward FDI over time in China: A contingent and dynamic perspective

Drawing on the investment development path (IDP) framework and foreign direct investment (FDI) spillover literature, this study attempts to identify the contingent and dynamic effect of inward FDI (IFDI) on outward FDI (OFDI) at a provincial level. Using panel data from China, our findings reveal that the positive effect of IFDI on OFDI is stronger in provinces with high economic development, albeit at a diminishing rate over time. However, the level of corruption weakens the effect of IFDI on OFDI over time. Despite that, we find that the effect of IFDI on OFDI is not contingent on trade openness overall. By decomposing trade openness into two dimensions, that is, import intensity and export intensity, our findings indicate that the effect of IFDI on OFDI depends on export intensity, rather than import intensity. Our study provides insights into the complex effect of IFDI on OFDI from a contingent and dynamic perspective.     

Adapting the Knowledge‐capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise to Trade and Investment in Business Services

At some conceptual level, trade in goods and services are not that much different. However, the speed at which trade and foreign investment in services is growing, along with the fact that the barriers to these activities are quite different from those for trade in goods, prompts us to take a more careful look. The paper begins with a general discussion about the various policies and technological constraints that impact foreign trade and the establishment of foreign commercial presence in intermediate business services. We then discuss which characteristics an accurate modelling approach must capture. Following that, we develop a model that allows for different regimes of trade and/or foreign affiliate production in services using Markusen's knowledge‐capital model. Simulations show that the pattern of service firm headquarters and office locations can differ considerably depending on whether it is trade, investment, or both that are either liberalised or become technologically feasible. Our results find that the welfare and factor‐price consequences are quite similar across the different scenarios.     

中国对外贸易优势——基于国际分工视角的再研究

中国对外贸易优势的研究要么结合国际直接投资,要么分析中国出口贸易的RCA指标。本文从国际分工的视角出发,运用国际专业化指标,探讨了中国对外贸易的比较优势。发现中国对外贸易的比较优势主要集中在消费品领域,2004年,资本品领域开始具备了一定的比较优势。中国对外贸易的比较劣势主要集中在半成品以及零部件领域。通过国别研究,我们发现,中国对亚洲国家和地区的对外贸易中,半成品以及零部件领域具有较大的比较劣势。中国对外贸易比较优势形成的关键原因在于加工贸易的贸易政策、外商直接投资企业的作用日益显著以及中国融入了亚洲生产网络等。     

Extending Dunning's Investment Development Path: The role of home country institutional determinants in explaining outward foreign direct investment

Recent years have seen an increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from emerging markets and post-communist economies alike. Given the specific institutional fabric of these countries, the question is whether mainstream theory can explain the drivers of foreign direct investment outflows or whether new theories are needed to explain this phenomenon. This paper aims to investigate the home country determinants of OFDI from post-communist economies. We augment the Investment Development Path (IDP) with explanations derived from institutional theory and explain the effects of home country institutional factors on the level of OFDI. We test our hypotheses using random effects estimations on a comprehensive panel dataset comprising of OFDI from 20 Central- and Eastern European countries. Our results support the IDP's main propositions but also highlight the importance of accounting for home country institutional factors when investigating the determinants of OFDI. In particular, we find that the inclusion of institutional variables increases the explanatory power of our models and that competition policy and overall institutional reforms play a crucial role in explaining OFDI from CEE countries with important implications for FDI theory.     

Leader narcissism and outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firms

Researchers use the upper echelons theory to establish how leaders’ attributes affect firms’ outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), a proxy for foreign operations. This extant literature has largely ignored the impact of leaders’ psychological attributes, particularly, narcissism. We use a narcissism index of leaders of Chinese listed companies to examine the relationship between leader narcissism and firm-level OFDI for the period 2007-2017. We show that leader narcissism has a positive and significant impact on firm-level OFDI. In addition, we find that firms with state ownership and political connections show a greater positive effect of leader narcissism on the firm’s OFDI. Our results suggest that leader narcissism appears to be a stimulus to corporate OFDI, and thus in recruiting top corporate executives who are responsible for managing the international investments of the corporation, this psychological trait should be given special consideration in addition to other qualifications.     

Outward foreign direct investment from emerging economies: escaping home country regulative voids

The internationalisation of multinationals from emerging economies raises the question of whether mainstream theory can explain this phenomenon. We combine the explanations of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) provided by the institution-based view and the investment development path (IDP) and suggest that the combined use of these explanations contributes to the reconciliation of the mainstream and emerging views of internationalisation. We argue that although OFDI is undertaken by firms to overcome the competitive disadvantages resulting from home country regulative voids, escapist investment is facilitated if these firms possess certain competitive advantages that help them overcome the liability of foreignness when expanding abroad. We thus expect the impact of regulative voids on OFDI to vary with the level of local firms’ ownership advantages. Our analysis of OFDI flows from 29 emerging economies over 17 years (1995–2011) provides support for the direct effects of two types of regulative voids and for the three suggested moderating effects of firms’ competitive advantages.     

Heterogeneity in OFDI by EMNEs: Drivers and trends of Chinese and Indian firms

Previous research has identified a distinction between the internationalization of emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) and their advanced-economy counterparts. However, the question as to whether EMNEs conduct outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in a uniform manner remains under-studied. Prior studies have grouped together all emerging markets but have ignored the essential heterogeneity of EMNEs that leads to their diverse OFDI patterns and behaviours. In this study, we illustrate the drivers and related phenomena of heterogeneity by exploring differences and similarities between Chinese and Indian MNEs’ OFDI activities, namely, investment destinations (i.e., advanced vs. emerging economies), the level of political relationships with host countries, industry sectors supported by institutional patronage, and the primary motivations of investment projects. We suggest that the heterogeneity in OFDI is the result of the institutional environment and the strategic priorities of the industry sector.     

国际贸易与国际投资对我国技术创新影响的比较分析

在经济全球化的背景下,技术创新与国际贸易和国际投资等涉外经济活动的联系愈来愈紧密,而不同涉外经济活动对技术创新的影响不同。本文运用1990～2008年期间的数据,实证检验了出口贸易、进口贸易、外商直接投资和对外直接投资对我国技术创新能力的影响效应。结果表明,外商直接投资和进口对技术创新的影响最大,出口贸易次之,而对外直接投资对技术创新的影响最小。     

我国OFDI对贸易结构影响的机理与实证——兼论我国OFDI动机的拓展

结合我国经济转型背景,本文拓展了我国逆梯度OFDI存在的原因,通过理论推断、案例分析和实证得出我国逆梯度OFDI具有战略性资产积累与国内外市场扩张并行的特征。在此基础上,将我国OFDI与贸易结构的命题置于顺-逆梯度OFDI并存框架下,分析了我国OFDI影响贸易结构的机理。最后,利用2003-2009年中国与24个发展中国家、22个发达国家的双边OFDI和贸易的面板数据验证与比较,提出了改善我国贸易结构的建议。     

对外直接投资与出口贸易的实证分析

基于1982-2003年对外直接投资与出口贸易的时间序列数据,采用向量自回归(VAR)模型方法,实证分析对外直接投资对出口贸易的影响。实证结果表明对外直接投资与出口贸易之间存在稳定的正相关关系,但无论长期还是短期对外直接投资对出口贸易的Granger因果关系都不显著,这表明对外直接投资对出口贸易的潜在作用未能得到充分发挥,因此应积极发展对外直接投资。     

Outward foreign direct investment and domestic innovation performance: Evidence from China

Recent years have witnessed substantial outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from many emerging economies. Should the governments of these economies encourage OFDI in order to promote domestic innovation? Much OFDI by emerging economy multinational enterprises (EMNEs) has been undertaken to acquire strategic assets overseas, but do these acquisitions bring innovation benefits at home? The empirical analysis presented in this paper considers the effects of OFDI on regional innovation performance, using a panel of Chinese provinces, and finds that OFDI has a very significant impact on domestic innovation. Furthermore, we also identify three contingent factors – absorptive capacity, foreign presence, and the competition intensity of the local market – that moderate the impact of OFDI on innovation performance.     

Assessing the effects of policies on China’s outward foreign direct investment

This paper discusses the determinants of China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) with a special focus on the role of government policy. In particular, we investigate the types of policies that are most influential in promoting OFDI. Our main contribution is to analyse, for the first time, China’s OFDI policies by means of quantitative indicators. We refine policies definitions and distinguish between Regulation Policies, Service Policies, Promotion Policies and Supervision Policies, and we develop a methodology for collecting, screening and coding policies; then we create new indices to capture different types of policies. We find that Regulation Policies, Service Policies and the general attitude of the government have significant effects on China’s OFDI at the national level.     

Expanding to outward foreign direct investment or not? A multi-dimensional analysis of entry mode transformation of Chinese private exporting firms

This research examines the factors determining whether or not exporting firms expand to outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) as part of their internationalisation strategy, using a recent survey of Chinese private-owned enterprises. We carry out a multi-dimensional analysis to investigate the impact of firm productivity, internal resources and the external environment on OFDI decisions, including both the decision to undertake OFDI and the volume of OFDI flows. It is found that productivity, technology-based capability, export experience, industry entry barriers, subnational institutions and intermediary institutional support affect firms’ OFDI decisions. The findings have important policy and managerial implications.     

Formal and informal influences of the state on OFDI of hybrid state-owned enterprises in China

This study investigates how the state influences the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of hybrid state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. Previous studies have provided conflicting arguments and empirical findings on the internationalization of SOEs, with some studies proposing a positive relationship between state ownership and OFDI, while others propose a negative relationship. In this paper, we argue that the mixed effects are due to different influences of different levels of state ownership and different types of political connections. We investigate our proposed hypotheses based on a sample of publicly listed hybrid Chinese SOEs between 2009 and 2016. We find an S-shaped relationship between state ownership and OFDI such that at low levels of state ownership, OFDI increases as state ownership increases; at medium levels of state ownership, OFDI decreases as state ownership increases; at high levels of state ownership, OFDI increases again as state ownership increases. We further find that executive-branch political connections between boards and top management teams of firms and the government have a negative effect on OFDI, while legislative-branch political connections have no significant effect on OFDI.     

基于产业内贸易的进出口商品结构研究——以浙江省为例

本文认为,浙江省产业内贸易总指数相对较低,分类指数差异巨大;资源稀缺型行业产业内贸易指数较高,资源丰裕型行业指数较低;附加值较高行业产业内贸易指数较高,附加值较低行业指数较低;外资集中产业的产业内贸易指数较高,非外资集中产业的指数较低。文章提出,提升浙江省进出口商品结构,一要转变经济增长方式,突破资源瓶颈,实现贸易结构的优化。二要加快加工贸易发展,优化进出口商品结构。三要合理地利用外资,有效地引导外资,提高产业内贸易水平。     

黑龙江省对俄贸易发展存在的问题及对策研究

目前,黑龙江省在对俄贸易、投资、经济技术合作等方面取得巨大成绩的同时,还存在着一系列急需解决的问题：对俄贸易企业的整体实力不强;进出口商品结构单一;商品货物贸易层次较低;出口产品技术含量低;缺乏本省名牌产品;市场贸易秩序与服务贸易体系不健全等,影响和制约了对俄贸易的进一步发展。促进对俄贸易的发展,必须转变外贸形式,优化贸易产品结构,着力打造本土企业品牌,提高商品技术含量,拓展能源原材料投资合作领域。同时,坚持＂以俄为主、注重日韩、兼顾其他＂的原则,大力开拓国际市场,从而促进黑龙江省对外贸易快速发展。     

中国与欧盟制成品产业内贸易及其影响因素

本文采用Grubel-Llyod指数,对中国与欧盟制成品产业内贸易水平及其影响因素进行了探讨。研究发现,中国与欧盟整体的制成品贸易以产业内贸易为主,但对不同的欧盟国家以及不同类型的制成品产业,其产业内贸易水平与发展趋势有着较大的差异。通过计量分析,认为欧盟国家的市场规模、对外开放水平、对华直接投资、研发水平以及中国与欧盟国家的市场规模差异等变量,均对中欧制成品产业内贸易水平有显著影响,但这种影响对于不同类型的制成品产业是不一样的。     

“一带一路”沿线国家投资便利化对中国对外直接投资的影响:理论与经验证据

文章通过构建投资便利化评价指标体系,运用熵值法定量测度"一带一路"沿线国家的投资便利化水平,并基于拓展引力模型实证检验其对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。研究发现:"一带一路"沿线国家投资便利化建设能够显著促进中国OFDI增长,其中制度质量改善对中国OFDI的促进作用最大。异质性分析表明,亚非地区、中等收入水平、资源禀赋欠丰富、市场潜力大以及与中国投资合作信任度高的沿线国家通过推进投资便利化建设,对中国OFDI的促进作用更明显。机制检验表明,沿线各国推进投资便利化建设,可以通过削减投资成本、提高投资效率以及降低投资风险等渠道对中国OFDI产生显著正向影响。最后聚焦行业差异的分析表明,沿线国家投资便利化建设能显著促进中国制造业和服务业OFDI扩展边际的提高,且对后者的促进作用更大。     

Outward FDI and Innovation Performance of Chinese Firms: Why Can Home-Grown Political Ties Be A Liability?

We explain how home-grown political ties of Chinese firms negatively influence the effect of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the innovation performance of their parent firms. Our results show that these ties can turn into a liability in the host countries (particularly developed ones) due to their misfit with the local institutional environment, hampering the parent firms’ innovation performance from OFDI. We also clarify how absorptive capacity of the parent firm mediates the relationship between OFDI and innovation performance. Our study furthers understanding of the link between internationalization and innovation performance and the ‘dark side’ of political ties.