Half-day trading and spillovers

This paper investigates the linkage of returns and volatilities between the United States and Chinese stock markets from January 2010 to March 2020. We use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK) GARCH models to calculate the time-varying correlations of these two markets and examine the return and volatility spillover effects between these two markets. The empirical results show that there are only unidirectional return spillovers from the U.S. stock market to the Chinese stock market. The U.S. stock market has a consistently positive spillover to China’s next day’s morning trading, but its impact on China’s next day’s afternoon trading appears to be insignificant. This finding implies that information in the U.S. stock market impacts the performance of the Chinese stock market differently in distinct semi-day trading. Moreover, with respect to the volatility, there are significant bidirectional spillover effects between these two markets.     

Option trading and the cross-listed stock returns: Evidence from Chinese A–H shares

We empirically investigate the effects of option trading on the cross-listed stock returns. Using dual-listed stocks in mainland China (A) and Hong Kong (H) stock exchanges, we show that option order imbalance (OI) positively and significantly predicts daily stock returns for both markets, controlling for risk factors and firm characteristics. Informed trading rather than price pressure better explain the predictability. High OI stocks have higher trading volume and present lottery-like properties. Three important events significantly affect the predictive power of OI, consistent with the improved market quality and the episode of speculative trading. Robustness checks support the main findings.     

Religion, Ethics and Stock Trading: The Case of an Islamic Equities Market

Islamic banking, based on the prohibition of interest, is well established throughout the Muslim world. Attention has now turned towards applying Islamic principles in equity markets. The search for alternatives to Western style markets has been given added impetus in Muslim countries by the turmoil in Asian financial markets in 1997. Common stocks are a legitimate form of instrument in Islam, but many of the practices associated with stock trading are not. In this paper the instruments traded and the structure and practices of stock markets are examined from an Islamic perspective. Speculation is not acceptable in Islam and measures would have to be taken to control speculative trading. In addition short selling and margin trading are severely restricted. The use of stock index and equity futures and options are also unlikely to be acceptable within an Islamic market. Regulatory authorities in Muslim countries will therefore find a vast array of problems in attempting to structure a trading system that will be acceptable.     

Derivatives trading,volatility spillover,and regulation: Evidence from the Korean securities markets

Unlike the U.S. and Japanese securities markets, we find new evidence of volatility spillover between index stocks and non‐index stocks following the introductions of index derivatives trading in the Korean securities markets. We further find that the degree of volatility spillover is closely related to the level of market deregulation; significant return volatility spills over from non‐index to index stocks during deregulation period but in the opposite direction during post‐deregulation period. Our empirical results show that the former volatility spillover from non‐index to index stocks can be explained by the transitory contagion effect associated with the 1997 Korean financial crisis and the subsequent market deregulation, whereas the latter volatility spillover from index to non‐index stocks is attributed to the permanent information spillover effect. This latter evidence suggests that the information regarding investors' expectations on the future common market factors is first reflected into the return volatility of index stocks and then transferred to the trading of non‐index stocks against which derivatives are not traded. Our results are robust to different estimation and sample construction methods. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:563–597, 2009     

Internet Search Intensity and Its Relation with Trading Activity and Stock Returns*

Using Google search volume as a proxy for investor attention, this paper provides evidence on the role attention plays in financial markets. We first show that abnormal Google search volume (ASVI) helps explain cross‐sectional variations in trading activity, even after controlling for its important determinants. Specifically, ASVI is positively related to trading volume, order imbalance and liquidity. When the relation between stock returns and ASVI is examined, we find a strong positive relation in the month after attention shocks and a reversal over a longer holding period. We further conjecture that the attention effect is more pronounced in stocks with higher limits to arbitrage. For this purpose, we construct a limits‐to‐arbitrage index and show that limits to arbitrage play an important role in explaining the attention effect.     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

股指期货如何影响股市稳定性?——对全球主要市场的三角度实证检验

以全球多个市场作为实证检验对象,从股市波动率变化、系统风险变化以及股市正反馈交易行为影响三个角度,分析股指期货市场稳定作用的含义,即对股市波动的影响及其作用表现,较为全面地解读股指期货的市场稳定作用。研究发现:三个角度都支持股指期货的市场稳定作用;而抑制正反馈交易的作用最为基础、直接和显著,是股指期货市场稳定作用的更为恰当的判断标准。     

The effects of sovereign credit rating spillovers on neighbouring countries’ financial markets

This study investigates the spillover effects of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating announcements on foreign currency-denominated bonds and stock markets in 19 African countries during the period of 1994–2014. Using a combination of Granger causality tests and impulse response function, the results show that there is marginal regional sovereign rating spillover impacts that are quickly absorbed into capital markets trading long-term securities. The analysis further shows marginal spillover effects that persist over longer time periods in sovereign ratings of other countries in the same region from a sovereign rating change in one country. These results imply that the regional bilateral linkages between countries serve as channels of capital and sovereign credit rating information flow. Thus, it is imperative for regional countries to pursue prudent developmental macroeconomic policies to avoid negative ratings that will have regional spillover effects.     

A Dynamic Volume–Return Relation and Investors' Positive Feedback Trading

With individual stocks, a larger increase in trading volume indicates a stronger short‐term return persistence. A reason for this short‐horizon ‘volume–return relation’ is that it can signal the existence of fundamental news, which can be gradually incorporated into stock price. In this study, we present another plausible explanation by considering investors' short‐term positive feedback trading. First, through empirical analysis, we show that the volume–return relation remains strong among stocks for which there is little fundamental news. Through a model‐based analysis, we demonstrate that positive feedback trading can cause this relation even when there is no news. Our findings raise the possibility that the short‐horizon volume–return relation is also caused by short‐term positive feedback trading.     

Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.     

The Expansion of the U.S. Stock Market, 1885 1930: Historical Facts and Theoretical Fashions

Based on an analysis of the leading trading markets for stockin the United States, I document the dramatic expansion thattook place in the scale and scope of the country's stock marketfrom the mid-1880s to the early 1930s. My analysis suggeststhat a broad-based stock market was a long way from being establishedeven by the early teens. It took the impetus provided by WorldWar I, plus the enthusiasm of the 1920s, to bring such a marketinto existence. I consider the capacity of today's fashionabletheories, which link the development of stock markets to improvementsin minority shareholder protection, to explain the growth ofthe U.S. stock market, and find that they cannot account forthe historical patterns that I identify. However, I suggestthat there are other arguments that are worthy of further consideration.First, there were factors, besides minority shareholder rights,that led to changes in the demand for corporate stocks duringthis period, especially an increase in the demand for stocksby institutional investors, notably banks and insurance companies,as well as the emergence of a retail market for stocks afterWorld War I. Second, there were also important developmentsin the supply of corporate stocks after the War, including theissuance of stock to fund the expansion of young firms, butespecially to facilitate mergers and acquisitions by establishedfirms, which seem to have played an important role in drivingthe expansion of the U.S. stock market.     

Asymmetric extreme risk spillovers between the Chinese stock market and index futures market: An MV-CAViaR based intraday CoVaR approach

This paper proposes a predictive CoVaR measure to analyze asynchronous risk spillovers between the Chinese stock and futures market. We jointly model the intraday CoVaR dynamics using an extended MV-CAViaR model. The results show the presence of asymmetric spillovers under different market states, different trading rules, and different confidence levels. Specifically, there exist significant downside spillovers and insignificant upside spillovers. Moreover, the futures (stock) market becomes dominant in risk transmission during bearish (bullish) market periods. Furthermore, high margin requirements would weaken the spillover effects of the futures market, but it would also strengthen the spillover effects of the stock market.     

Informed options trading on the implied volatility surface: A cross-sectional approach

This study investigates the cross-sectional implication of informed options trading across different strikes and maturities. We explore the term structure perspective of the one-way information transmission from options markets to stock markets by adopting well-known option-implied volatility measures to examine stock return predictability. Using equity options data for U.S. listed stocks spanning 2000–2013, we find that the shape of the long-term implied volatility curve exhibits extra predictive power for stock returns of subsequent months even after orthogonalizing the short-term components. Our findings indicate that the inter-market information asymmetry rapidly disappears before the expiration of long-term option contracts.     

Dispersion in Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Market Efficiency

Recent studies show that firms with higher analysts’ earnings forecasts dispersion subsequently have lower returns than firms with lower forecasts dispersion. This paper evaluates alternative explanations for the dispersion–return relation using a stochastic dominance approach. We aim to discriminate between the hypothesis that some asset pricing models can explain the puzzling negative relation between dispersion and stock returns, and the alternative hypothesis that the dispersion effect is mainly driven by investor irrationality and thus is an evidence of a failure of efficient markets. We find that low dispersion stocks dominate high dispersion stocks by second‐ and third‐order stochastic dominance over the period from 1976 to 2012. Our results imply that any investor who is risk‐averse and prefers positive skewness would unambiguously prefer low dispersion stocks to high dispersion stocks. We conclude that the dispersion effect is more likely evidence of market inefficiency, rather than a result of omitted risk factors.     

Ethical Reasoning and the Use of Insider Information in Stock Trading

The cognitive developmental theory of ethics suggests that there is a positive relationship between ethical reasoning and ethical behavior. In this study, we trained a sample of accounting and finance students in performing competitive stock trading in our state-of-the-art trading room. The subjects then performed trading of stocks under two experimental conditions: insider information, and no-insider information where significant performance-based financial awards were at stake. We also administered the Defining Issues Test (DIT). Ethical behavior, as the dependent variable was measured in a binary scale: whether the subjects used insider information for trading of stocks or not. Ethical reasoning as measured by the DIT P-score indicated statistically significant effect on ethical behavior. The results have important implications for recruitment and training of professionals engaged in the use of financial markets for securities trading.     

中国股票市场交易成本的估计

采用上证180指数成分股票的分笔交易数据,分析估计了反映中国股票市场交易成本的报价价差、有效价差和交易价差,并对它们进行了比较和相关分析。实证结果表明,我国股票市场的总交易成本约为0.25%,除指令处理成分外,还有其他的交易成本成分,而且它们会随时间的变化而增加。交易成本不仅表现出共同变动的趋势,而且还与股票的特征有关。     

The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets

This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock‐bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implications for portfolio management and asset allocation. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1066–1094, 2008     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Foreign Ownership Restriction and Momentum – Evidence from Emerging Markets

This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on stock price efficiency and return predictability in emerging markets. It finds that stocks fully investible for foreign investors exhibit stronger price momentum than non‐investible stocks. The difference in momentum effects between stocks with different levels of investibility cannot be fully explained by world market risk, size, turnover, or country‐specific factors. Further tests show that fully investible stocks have no post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and their short‐term momentum reverses over a longer horizon. These results show that the stronger momentum of highly investible stocks does not appear to be driven by foreign investors' underreaction to firm‐specific information, but is more likely to be generated by their positive feedback trading.     

Market Timing With Moving Averages

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.