民营化、国有化与中国国有银行改革

国有银行自上世纪70年代中期以来出现了民营化的国际趋势,一些国家因此发生了银行危机.而此前全球曾有过国有化浪潮.虽然国有银行效率比民营银行低,但经验研究却表明,国有银行与银行危机之间没有或很少有因果关系;而且由于有政府信誉担保不易发生挤兑.中国国有银行改革过程实际上是政府逐步放弃控制权的过程,但切不可因效率而忽视金融稳定;简单地依靠所有权变更无法解决国有银行脆弱性问题;而且,与境外战略投资者合作时要谨防金融主权失控风险.     

Local Public Corruption and Bank Lending Activity in the United States

Using a conviction-based measure, we find that local (state-level) public corruption exerts a negative effect on the lending activity of US banks. Our baseline estimations show that the difference in public corruption between, for example, Alabama, where corruption is high, and Minnesota, where corruption is low, implies that banks headquartered in the former state grant 0.55% less credit (or $3.52 million for the average bank) ceteris paribus. Using proxies for relationship lending and monitoring, we also find that these bank characteristics weaken the negative effect of public corruption on lending. These results are robust to tests that address endogeneity, to the use of perception-based measures of corruption, and after controlling for credit demand conditions. In further analysis, we show that these effects are more evident for smaller banks and banks operating in a single state. These findings provide evidence that public corruption could facilitate information asymmetry in the lending market and, thus, could hinder local development by reducing bank credit.

     

Bank lending,deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks

In this study, we conduct a panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks to ascertain whether Islamic banks are able to sustain financing supply and whether its growth is higher than conventional bank lending growth in times of stress. For concreteness, we also assess whether the sustained financing supply of Islamic banks is justified by a concomitant increase in Islamic deposit growth and is not linked to excessive risk taking. Utilizing a panel sample of 25 Islamic banks and 114 conventional banks from 10 dual-banking countries, we observe sustained financing supply by Islamic banks but significant reduction in the lending growth by conventional banks during the crisis period. The results further suggest that the financing growth of Islamic banks is higher than the lending growth of conventional banks during the crisis period. However, we find no clear evidence that the deposit growth of Islamic banks behaves differently during the period. Finally, there is no indication to suggest that Islamic banks exhibit excessive risk taking in times of stress. Our results contribute to the evidence supporting the contributive role of the Islamic banking system to financial and economic stability.     

次贷危机背景下我国商业银行对个人住房信贷风险的防范

美国次贷危机已演变成为了全球性的金融危机。我国商业银行的个人住房信贷扩张累积了较大风险与个贷危机,次贷危机的冲击将使个人住房贷款者信用风险的集中爆发,也会使房地产市场发展的不确定性风险加大等问题完全暴露。我国商业银行必须采取措施,提前防范其对银行体系内个人住房信贷所产生的不良影响,严格控制个人住房贷款者的信用级别,完善并严厉执行银行体系的内部控制,增强银行自身的流动性,加强金融创新监管,以全面保证商业银行信贷资产运作的安全性。     

Cyclicality of lending in Africa: The influence of bank ownership

Ownership structure of banks has dramatically changed over the past two decades in African countries with privatization and foreign bank entry, including the expansion of Pan-African banks. The objective of this paper is to investigate how bank ownership influences cyclicality of lending in Africa. We are then able to assess how changes in bank ownership influence the economy. To this end, we measure the sensitivity of bank loan growth to GDP per capita growth of the host country with dynamic GMM estimations. We use panel data from 190 commercial banks covering 20 African countries spanning the period from 2002 to 2015. We find that lending of African banks is procyclical for all types of banks. However, we observe that Pan-African banks are the least procyclical banks, while no significant difference in procyclicality is observed between state-owned banks, domestic private banks, and other foreign banks. In addition, we find evidence that foreign banks are influenced by GDP per capita growth of their home country. Therefore, our findings support the view that the expansion of Pan-African banks contributes to reduce cyclicality of lending. However, foreign bank entry can enhance the transmission of external shocks.     

Bank Work Experience Versus Political Connections: Which Matters for Bank Loan Financing?

This paper examines how bank lending decisions are affected either by executives’ connections with banks, through their former banking experience, or by their political connections with governments, using a sample of bank loans granted to Chinese listed non‐state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) from 2003 to 2010. We find that bank loans are more closely related to profitability for firms with bank connections, while firms’ political connections weaken this relationship. We further find that the influence of bank connections is more significant for firms from less supported industries or less developed regions. Furthermore, firms with bank connections are less likely to become financially distressed after the initiation of their bank loans and experience higher future stock returns, while firms with political connections experience the opposite outcome. Overall, our results indicate that in the context of a relationship‐based economy like China, firms’ connections with banks create value by alleviating information asymmetry and improving banks’ lending decisions, while political connections result in capital misallocation and subsequent deterioration in performance.     

The British Overseas Banks and Development Finance in Africa after 1945

The role of the British overseas banks in the provision of medium- and long-term finance in British colonial Africa is examined, with special reference to the establishment of the bank development corporations after the Second World War. The origins of the banks' involvement in development financing are traced, and in particular those of the Barclays Overseas Development Corporation, the first in the field. It is argued that, although their performance was modest, at least it was not as disastrous as the initial performance of the public sector Colonial Development Corporation. The three bank development corporations, and the medium- and long-term lending undertaken by the fourth British bank operating in British colonial Africa, filled a necessary gap in the financial structure of these territories at a time when the British banks were often the only commercial banks in existence.     

The influence of bank ownership on credit supply: Evidence from the recent financial crisis

This study examines how bank ownership influenced the credit supply during the recent financial crisis in Russia, where the banking sector consists of a mix of state-controlled banks, foreign-owned banks, and domestic private banks. To estimate credit supply changes, we apply an original approach based on stochastic frontier analysis. We use quarterly data for Russian banks covering the period from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2009. Our findings suggest that bank ownership affected credit supply during the financial crisis and that the crisis led to an overall decrease in the credit supply. Relative to domestic private banks foreign-owned banks reduced their credit supply more and state-controlled banks less. This supports the hypothesis that foreign banks have a “lack of loyalty” to domestic actors during a crisis, as well as the view that an objective function of state-controlled banks leads them to support the economy during economic downturns.     

Ownership and production efficiency: Evidence from Taiwanese banks

In the early 1990s, Taiwan began her deregulation trend in order to enhance competition and economic efficiency across all industries. We derive a theoretical framework to predict possible rankings in technical efficiencies of public, mixed, and private banks. A panel data set with 43 Taiwanese banks during 1997–1999 is used for empirical analysis. We then apply a translog distance function to estimate technical efficiencies. The relationship between technical efficiency and government shareholding is also examined. Empirical results show that a public bank in Taiwan can improve its technical efficiency by mixed ownership at a diminishing rate. Moreover, banks in Taiwan on average performed worse after the 1997 Asian financial crisis.     

Political uncertainty and city bank lending in China: Evidence from city government official changes

Using data hand collected in China between 2001 and 2016, this paper examines how political uncertainty affects city bank lending. Our results show that political uncertainty causes banks to significantly increase loan growth. These results are moderated by the characteristics of government officials, bank characteristics, and the degree of marketization. Our results further show that changes by government officials increase medium-term loan growth, mainly for the real estate and public utilities sector. Finally, we show that city government official changes increase bank lending and, thus, increase credit risk, that is, bank lending has a mediating effect.     

Does bank efficiency affect the bank lending channel in China?

This work examines the impact of bank efficiency on the bank lending channel in China. Using a sample of 148 Chinese banks over the period 2006–2017, we investigate how the reaction of the loan supply to monetary policy actions depends on a bank's efficiency. We find limited evidence that bank efficiency hampers the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. In addition, bank efficiency does favor the transmission of monetary policy for banks with low loan-to-deposit ratios. These results suggest that bank efficiency may influence the bank lending channel in certain cases.     

Bank lending channel in a dual banking system: Why are Islamic banks so responsive?

We examine the interest rate sensitivity of both deposits and credits at Islamic and conventional banks in Turkey. We find that the bank lending channel is especially operative for Islamic banks. Impulse responses for conventional and Islamic banks reveal that Islamic bank depositors’ sensitivity to policy rate changes is substantially larger than that of conventional bank depositors. Next to heavily dependence on deposit funding, we consider that inertia in Islamic bank deposit rates impedes these banks to keep those depositors who consider the opportunity cost of monetary policy rates is unbearable. On the lending side, we obtain similar results, implying that tight monetary policy leads to a larger contraction in Islamic bank credits. This finding is a reflection of the favourable attitude of Islamic banks towards small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) financing. When similar relationships are analysed for currency and inflation shocks, we again find larger responses for Islamic banks showing the cyclical nature of SME credits.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Interest Rates in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of the bank lending rate in Ghana using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. We found evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the average lending rate charged by commercial banks and its determining factors. In the long run, bank lending rates in Ghana are positively influenced by nominal exchange rates and Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate but negatively with fiscal deficit, real GDP and inflation. We also find positive dependence of the bank lending rate on exchange rates, and the monetary policy rate both in the short and long run. Specifically, our findings reveal that the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate and the exchange rate, by far, show strong contemporaneous effects on the average bank lending rate in Ghana.     

国有商业银行信贷风险管理存在的问题及对策

目前我国国有商业银行最突出的问题表现在信贷资产质量低下、不良贷款率长期居高不下,以致银行信贷风险已经成为我国金融风险的最大隐患。因此,改革我国国有商业银行信贷风险管理机制势在必行。要提高信贷资产质量,健全风险管理机制,建立完整的风险管理法律法规体系。     

Cross-border banking,credit access,and the financial crisis

We study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging European countries before and during the financial crisis. We use survey data on 10,701 applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that firms' access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks. During the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and Tier 1 capital, as well as losses on financial assets. We also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks. The effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.     

What causes Chinese listed firms to switch bank loan provider? Evidence from a survival analysis

This paper analyses the duration of firm-bank relationships and examines what drives firms in China to change from one bank loan provider to another. Matched data of firm-loan-duration to bank provides a unique panel data set of relationship between China's listed firms and their lending banks consisting of 2102 firms listed on both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the period of 1996–2016. The Cox proportional hazard model is used to allow for a semiparametric hazard function after parametrically controlling for firm-specific financial factors, industry factors, ownership characteristics, internal management changes, and external macroeconomic changes. In addition, we explore the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, bank-financial and ownership characteristics. The main finding of this study is that in an environment of growing commercialisation of relationships the firm-bank relationship between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-owned banks (SOBs) in China remains super-stable. However, a change in the CEO of a firm even of a SOE increases the probability of the loan-provider being changed.     

Determinants of Federal Reserve lending to failed banks

Many of the banks that failed in the years 1985–1990 borrowed from the Federal Reserve for extended periods in their last year. This article tests hypotheses about the determinants of borrowings by banks that failed in these years. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that borrowings were greatest among the banks with the greatest liquidity needs in their last year. They do not support the hypothesis that the Fed favored member banks in its allocation of credit to troubled banks. The results indicate significant variation in lending practices across Federal Reserve districts, and there is weaker evidence of variation in lending practices across time.The rate of bank failure in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s was high relative to failure rates in earlier decades. Many of the failed banks borrowed from the Federal Reserve for extended periods in their last year. Of the sample of failed banks in this study, 58% borrowed at some time in their last year, and 48% borrowed in their last three months. In most cases, the Federal Reserve would have been aware of the financial problems of these banks when lending to them, based on the supervisory ratings of the condition of the banks.Congress acted in 1991 to restrict Federal Reserve lending to undercapitalized banks, in the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA). These restrictions were based on the view that Federal Reserve lending to undercapitalized banks increased the losses of the FDIC in bank failure cases.There was a lot of variation among the borrowers in terms of the length of time they borrowed and average borrowings relative to their total deposits. This variation makes it possible to test hypotheses about the borrowings of these banks near the time of their failure. One hypothesis is that the Federal Reserve made credit available to the troubled banks with the greatest liquidity needs. Banks with liquidity needs have exhausted most of their liquid assets, must draw down reserves to pay depositors who are withdrawing funds, and cannot raise funds in the private sector. Fed lending to the troubled banks with the greatest liquidity needs would have given supervisors time to determine which banks to close and the methods for resolving the failed bank cases.¹ Another hypothesis is that variation among the banks in the patterns of their borrowings reflected preferences of the Fed to aid some banks rather than others, such as banks that were members of the Federal Reserve System. Yet another hypothesis is that the variation in patterns of borrowings reflected differences in Fed practices across districts and across time in lending to troubled banks.Tests of these hypotheses do not indicate whether the practice of Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks was good policy.² These tests, however, may shed light on the factors that motivated the Fed to lend to troubled banks.     

Die aktuelle Kritik an der makroökonomischen Geldtheorie

There is no universal agreement on what money actually is. Money is created and used by the modern bank system, which can be split into the central bank, the commercial banks and the remaining sector of households, companies and states. The article focuses on bank deposits, which are created by commercial banks themselves. Bank deposits count as money in a modern economy such as Germany, where the bulk of money held by the public is in the form of deposits with banks. The other part is currency — bank notes and coins. Not accessible to the public (with some exceptions) are central bank reserves held by commercial banks with the central bank. There are two main problems which are currently being discussed by the Deutsche Bundesbank and by some more or less academic authors. First, what kind of relationship exists between base money (currency and reserves) and bank deposits? This relationship plays a crucial role in controlling and steering inflation and investment. Second, are banks lending the savings of their customers to other customers? This relationship is a cornerstone of the money multiplier theory. The answers to these two questions are not as trivial as they seem to be. Textbooks are of no help because they are the targets of the criticism made by central bank authors.     

Changes in the banking system and small business lending

Since small businesses typically rely on small banks as their primary source of financing, there are concerns that the wave of bank consolidation of the 1990s may have reduced the availability of loans to small businesses in the US. Using a panel of state-level banking information over 1993–2002, this paper shows that the Riegle–Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 reduced the number of small banks, but not the amount of small business lending. We also show that small banks are participating less in small business lending. These results imply that the bank-lending channel of the monetary transmission mechanism became less important in the US in the late 1990s as a result of more firms borrowing from large banks that are less sensitive to monetary shocks.     

中国货币政策对银行风险承担行为的影响研究——基于异质性视角

国际金融危机的爆发引发了理论界对货币政策是否影响银行体系稳定更为广泛的关注。文章基于异质性视角构建动态面板数据模型对货币政策与银行风险承担行为之间的关系进行估计,研究结果表明：2003-2011年,货币政策变量对银行风险偏好的影响具有时滞性,贷款利率提高有助于抑制银行风险,货币供应量增加会刺激银行更加冒险;不同银行对货币政策冲击会做出异质反应,随着资本充足率的提高,货币政策对银行风险承担行为的影响效果减弱。因此,加强中国人民银行在宏观审慎监管中的主导作用、建立逆周期的货币政策和资本监管协调机制是后金融危机时代我国监管当局的重要议题。