Natural resource dependence, non-tradables, and economic growth

I argue that the commonly used nominal measure of natural resource dependence – the share of exports of primary products in GNP – understates in growth regressions the negative link between natural resource dependence and per capita GDP growth. I show that using a purchasing power parity adjusted measure yields an economically much larger negative relationship between per capita GDP growth and natural resource dependence than what has been suggested by the nominal measure. Consistent with the rent-seeking literature, I show that the resource curse is a symptom of societies characterized by high levels of corruption and sluggish checks and balances on political decision-making.     

Economic inequality and paretian welfare economics: Some insinuating questions

Capitalists, managers, unions and government today have espoused employee ownership and participation in order to further their own selfish ends. By so doing, they unwittingly usher in full workers' democracy, and concomittant radical transformations of the socioeconomic system which, ironically, will curtail their power. These transformations would stem from our populist ideological roots and would promote profound changes in the distribution of political power and in the way the society deals with technology.     

从经济学再到政治经济学:理解包容性增长

胡锦涛主席在亚太经合组织的两次会议上倡导包容性增长,其理论与现实意义深远。经济增长自经济学诞生以来就一直是经济研究的核心问题,经济学史上从政治经济学到经济学,再到最近新政治经济学的兴起实际上反映了人们对经济发展中的繁荣与公正、市场与政府的认知的深入过程。强调机会平等的包容性增长正是当下中国的政治经济学。从经济学发展过程审视政治与经济离合的演变有助于我们深入理解和研究包容性增长。     

Unemployment and the dynamics of political support for economic reforms

I analyze the dynamics of political support for economic reforms using a version of Rodrik's (1995) two-sector model of the transition economy. The key role is played by the pattern of flows between the state and private sectors and unemployment. It is shown that while the workers in the private sector always support rapid reforms, the workers in the state sector and the unemployed will support rapid reforms only at the outset of the transition. Later, state-sector workers and unemployed vote for a reduction in the speed of reforms.     

Export expansion and economic growth: Further empirical evidence

This paper examines the relationship between export expansion and economic growth in a sample of seventy-three developing countries, using data for the period 1960–1978. It shows that in both groups of low- and middle-income countries, export expansion is associated with better economic performance and that an important cause of this association is the favorable impact of exports on total factor productivity. The paper also demonstrates that the effect of commodity composition of exports on the relationship between export expansion and economic growth is substantial in more advanced developing economies.     

Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis

The world eocnomy is currently adjusting to a low inflation regime which has implicastions for the cross-country distribution of world growth opportunities. In contrast to previous related work which assumes unidirectional causality, this paper uses the Granger methodology to examine both the direction and pattern of causality between inflation and economic growth in 70 countries using annual data over the period 1960–89. Among the conclusions are that first, the relationship between inflation and growth is non-uniform across countries: 40% of countries studied reveal no causality, one-third exhibit unidirectional causality and about one-fifth of countries show bidirectional causality, second, a vast majority of countries which show either uni- or bi-directional causality beong to the industrial group, and third, the low world inflation regime will on balance redistribute real growth opportunities benefit away from the developing countries towards the industrialized countries.     

On economic growth and development

The paper offers a subjectivist approach to economic growth and an institutional view of development. In particular, the term development regards the prevailing rules of the game and their effects on the key variables for economic activity to take off: property rights and productive entrepreneurship. And growth is deemed to be the result of favourable institutional environments where chances are exploited and individuals succeed in improving their living conditions. Methodological and normative investigation questions the validity of the recent and increasing literature on institutional design, where institutional economics actually plays only a modest role. JEL Codes B53, O10     

Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries

We analyse the relationship between functional income distributionand economic growth in Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands,the UK and the USA from 1960 until 2005. The analysis is basedon a demand-driven distribution and growth model for an openeconomy inspired by Bhaduri and Marglin, which allows for eitherprofit- or wage-led growth. We find that growth in France, Germany,the UK and the USA has been wage-led, whereas Austria and theNetherlands have been profit-led. In the case of Austria a domesticallywage-led economy changes to profit-led when including the effectof distribution on external trade. The Netherlands, however,are already profit-led without external trade. Our results sofar only partially confirm Bhaduri and Marglin's theoreticalconclusion that wage-led growth becomes less feasible when theeffects of distribution on foreign trade are taken into account.     

Financial development and economic growth in Australia: An empirical analysis

The paper empirically examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in Australia in terms of bank-based and market-based financial structure. A time-series approach using the VAR Model is used to provide evidence for the dynamic relationship. The paper provides empirical evidence on the causal impact of the financial market on the economic growth of the Australian economy. The results suggest that financial intermediaries and financial markets have different impacts on economic growth given their diverse roles in the domestic economy. In particular there is evidence of causality from economic growth to the development of the financial intermediaries. On the other hand, development in the financial markets causes economic growth but there is no evidence of any causality from economic growth to financial markets. The sensitivity test using different interest rates does not change the results.I Jel classification: O16, G18, G28I We would like to thank Tilak Abeysinghe and Rajagurn Gunasekaran for their helpful comments on the first draft. Also, we would like to thank the Editor, Prof. Baldev Raj, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Political entrepreneurship and bidding for political monopoly

An analytical framework for dealing with political entrepreneurship and reform is proposed which is based on some new combinations of Schumpeterian political economy, an extended version of Tullock's model of democracy as franchise-bidding for natural monopoly and some basic elements of New Institutional Economics. It is shown that problems of insufficient award criteria and incomplete contracts which may arise in economic bidding schemes, also – and even more so – characterise political competition. At the same time, these conditions create leeway for Schumpeterian political entrepreneurship. The same is true for various barriers to entry in politics. These barriers affect a trade-off between political stability and political contestability which will be discussed with special emphasis on incentives and opportunities for political entrepreneurship in the sense of risking long-term investments in basic political reforms.     

Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence

This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.     

Fiscal decentralization and political centralization in China: Implications for growth and inequality

China's current fiscal system is largely decentralized while its governance structure is rather centralized with strong top-down mandates and a homogeneous governance structure. Due to large differences in initial economic structures and revenue bases, the implicit tax rate and fiscal burdens to support the functioning of local government vary significantly across jurisdictions. Regions initially endowed with a broader nonfarm tax base do not need to rely heavily on preexisting or new firms to finance public goods provision, thereby creating a healthy investment environment for the nonfarm sector to grow. In contrast, regions with agriculture as the major economic activity have little resources left for public investment after paying the expenses of bureaucracy. Consequently, differences in economic structures and fiscal burdens may translate into a widening regional gap. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 713–726.     

Long-run determinant of Korean economic growth: empirical evidence from manufacturing

This paper challenges the recent contrarian view that the phenomenal growth of East Asian NICs is fuelled mainly by the accumulation of production inputs not by TFP growth. To appraise this view, we investigated and re-evaluated South Korean manufacturing growth (1973(Q1)–1993(Q4)). Using Johansen's cointegrating analysis, our results show that South Korean manufacturing appears to have increasing returns to scale in production technology. The ‘learning by doing’ effect defined by Lucas (1988) is empirically supported. This effect appears to be observed as a long-run determinant of South Korean manufacturing growth. Consequently, South Korean manufacturing growth can be described by an endogenous economic growth model, such as the Lucas (1988) model, contradicting the contrarian view.     

The effect of political regimes and technology on economic growth

This study analyses the role of financial constraints on the investment decisions of 497 Brazilian firms. We use panel data, with firm-specific information for different years, allowing for the abandonment of the representative firm model. Information on capital intensity at the firm level is used to group firms. We estimate different models and the results suggest the presence of financial restrictions, especially for capital-intensive firms.     

Equity and economic growth,a theoretical and empirical study: MENA zone

In macroeconomic literature, it is widely held that persuasion of economic growth and more equitable distribution of income (wealth) is not possible at the same time. The basic reason put forward is that to aim for more equitable distribution will reduce total savings in short and medium terms by reducing the weighted average of propensities to save of the different strata of the society. Therefore, the main objective for countries in transitional period is to have a higher economic growth rather than a fairer distribution of income. Recent developments on economic growth studies from a longer perspective and with sustainability criterion has put above idea in real jeopardy. It is shown that by paying more attention to justifiable distribution especially among different generations will promote a higher genuine savings which results in a higher rate of steady economic growth. In this research we use dynamic optimization approach (optimal control) for studying the mechanics of this regularity and test the proposition for selected MENA zone countries and then compare with some developed countries. Our ultimate goal is suggesting a fair fiscal policy to have a high economic growth compatible with a fairer distribution of wealth and income. It seems that any attempt to provide a more equitable condition, will be eventually reached to a higher capital formation, higher saving and higher output per capita in MENA region compared with selected developed countries.     

Capital and growth with oligarchic property rights

To analyze effects of imperfect property rights on economic growth, we consider economies where some fraction of capital can be owned only by local oligarchs, whose status is subject to political risk. Political risk decreases local capital and wages. Risk-averse oligarchs acquire safe foreign assets for insurance, thus increasing wages in other countries that protect outside investors. We show that for empirically reasonable parameter values, reforms to decrease political risk or to protect more outsiders' investments can decrease local oligarchs' welfare by increasing wages, making such reforms prone to political resistance from the ruling elite. We suggest measures of property rights imperfections derived from empirically observable data, and we test the quantitative predictions of our model using those measures and other parameter values routinely assumed in growth theory.     

Endogenicity of economic growth models

In his celebrated 1956 article, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Solow calibrated the stylized facts of economic growth observed in the Western developed countries and summed up by Kaldor. Solow reconciled steady-state rate of growth of per capita output with constant capital/output and capital/labor ratios by introducing labor augmenting technological progress and measuring physical labor time in efficiency units. A series of articles have appeared since the mid-1980s, which have substantially extended the neoclassical model of growth theory presented by Solow. Most of these are entitled endogenous in juxtaposition to Solow's model, which is considered and often labeled exogenous. The purpose of this article is to show that this dichotomy is not worthwhile by arguing that the way technological progress enters in Solow's model plays a crucial role. Moreover, the designation of a model need not depend on the way it employs just one element among others.     

Macroeconomic determinants of growth: new measurement and evidence on the effect of political freedom

Empirical results based on the re-examination of the data and models offered by Kormendi and Meguire (1985) and Gupta (1988) suggest that the impact of political freedom on economic growth is positive and significant. In particular, the replacement of their civil liberties variable by a new varible representing social capabilities improves the magnitude and significance of the estimated parameters and explanatory power of the regressions. The marginal contribution of social capabilities to explaining the percentage variations in the mean rate of income growth is the third highest among all determinants of growth, suggesting that the effect of freedom on growth is more pronounced than previously measured. It is argued that freedom will enable individuals to expand the range of socio-economic opportunities and to establish greater control over the human environment in order to improve material well-being.     

Interrelationships among banks,stock markets and economic growth: an empirical investigation

This article utilizes a simultaneous equations model to study the relationships among economic growth, banking and stock market development. In contrast to conventional instrumental variable approach, we implement the analysis via the methodology of identification through heteroscedasticity. Using Beck and Levine (2004 Beck, T. and Levine, R. (2004) Stock markets, banks and growth:panel evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 423–42.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) dataset, we find that each of the three variables interacts in important ways. While both are conducive to economic growth, banking development matters more for growth in low-income countries and stock market development is more favourable to growth in high-income or low-inflation ones. The data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of banking development on stock market development and a negative effect of stock market development on banking development. Besides, the feedback effects of growth on both banking and stock market development are found.     

Exports and economic growth:some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries

This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in four of the Arab Gulf countries, namely, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman for the period 1973–93. The estimates presented indicate a positive and significant relation between the two variables. Also, the statistical adequacy of the models used is supported by the following diagnostic tests. The Bruesch-Godfrey statistic suggests the absence of serial correlation. The Farely-Hinich test fails to reject the null hypothesis that the models are structurally stable. And both the White and Hausman specification tests show that the models are correctly specified.