Modeling and supporting task-oriented group processes: Purposeful complex adaptive systems and Evolutionary Systems Design

Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) is a universal general problem solving, formal modeling, design framework for purposeful complex adaptive systems (PCAS) and processes, i.e., task-oriented group processes. These processes constitute policy making, group decision, negotiation, and multiagent problem solving with human and/or artificial agents. ESD is also a framework for computer group support systems (GSS) that support these processes. The ESD general framework can be applied to define and solve specific problems. In this article the ESD framework is presented and illustrated by example. The article provides background for ESD computer implementations discussed in two other related articles (Lewis and Shakun 1996; Bui and Shakun 1996).     

Negotiation processes,Evolutionary Systems Design,and NEGOTIATOR

A negotiation accord is often the result of an intense, laborious, and evolutionary negotiation process. During this process, disputing parties are confronted with goal, judgment, and outcome conflict. This article demonstrates the utility of a conflict resolution framework—Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD)—by using a Negotiation Support System. ESD seeks to guide negotiators to move their individual goals and judgments in such a way as to enhance the chance of achieving a common solution. As illustrated by the use of NEGOTIATOR, a multiattribute utility negotiation support system, we argue that computer mediation can prove to be an effective means to implement the ESD framework.     

Consciousness, Spirituality and Right Decision/Negotiation in Purposeful Complex Adaptive Systems

Both cybernetic and self-organizing, purposeful complex adaptive systems (PCAS) express purpose by solving problems defined by choosing and delivering values to participants as operational goals through decision making. Individuals, groups, organizations, and economies are PCAS. Here we focus on indviduals and groups. Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) is a universal (culture independent) general problem solving, formal modeling/design framework for PCAS that can be computer implemented in same time/same place or telework modes. Formally, in ESD sets of elements and their relations modeling a PCAS evolve through cybernetics/self organization. Spirituality and the concept of right decision/negotiation in PCAS are discussed in relation to consciousness. Rightness comes from spirituality, i.e., consciousness experiencing oneness. Oneness is integrally bound with love; hence the term oneness/love. Through right decision/negotiation PCAS try to realize their ultimate purpose to live Two (the relative, the process of all there is) as One (the absolute, all there is). Oneness/love, connectedness to One, promotes problem solving and negotiation - expressed formally in the ESD problem representation - that is at the same time right. Simply put, right problem solving requires oneness/love and delivers oneness/love. Computer and receiver modes of consciousness are discussed in relation to oneness/love and its absence experienced as separateness/fear. Ways to transit from the latter to the former are considered. P.L. Yu's Habitual Domain (HD) framework is introduced and discussed in relation to ESD. Evolutionary heuristics for evolution of an ESD right problem representation through cybernetics/self-organization are presented based on combined HD and ESD concepts. Then operational procedures for defining and validating a right problem for an individual or group and associated right decision/negotiation outcome are considered. Thus, the work contributes to procedural rationality - how decisions should be or are made - in purposeful complex adaptive systems. The paper suggests that for humans to live fully (awake) is to live in our love-based spirituality, in the moment, consciousness experiencing oneness/love at the edge of chaos, challenged in our purpose to live Two as One by spiritual or right decision/negotiation through cybernetics/self-organization, i.e., problem solving under oneness. Artificial agents in PCAS may participate in right decision/negotiation. They may in principle have consciousness but the nature of the subjective experience is unclear.     

United States–China Plane Collision Negotiation

On April 1, 2000 an American surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter plane collided off the coast of China. The Chinese pilot parachuted out of his aircraft but was presumed dead; his body was not found. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing at a Chinese military airfield without receiving permission. China thus had possession of the U.S. plane and crew. China said that the U.S. was responsible for the crash and demanded an apology. The U.S. expressed regret over the collision but declared it had no apology to give as the fault lay with the Chinese pilot. On April 10 with negotiation between the two countries remaining deadlocked, the author considered the problem in the Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) framework. The article discusses the author's analysis and solution, his efforts to implement it, and the agreed solution announced by the U.S. and China on April 11.     

Challenging Group Support Systems Research: The Case for Strategic Decision Making

Strategic decision making (SDM) often occurs in groups that can benefit from the use of group support systems (GSS). However, no comprehensive review of this logical intersection has been made. We explore this intersection by viewing GSS research through the lens of SDM. First, SDM is broadly characterized and a model of GSS-mediated SDM is produced. Second, we review empirical GSS research linking these findings to the characteristics of SDM. We conclude that GSS research has not produced sufficient knowledge about group history, heterogeneity, member experience, task type, time pressure, technology or tool effects, and decision consensus for a favorable evaluation of SDM in GSS groups. SDM in GSS groups challenges researchers to study the effects of group processes such as those just mentioned in a context that involves ongoing and established groups, political activity, and a multiplicity of tasks.     

Facilitating computer-supported meetings: A cumulative analysis in a multiple-criteria task environment

There have been many instances of the ineffective applications of new information technology. This article describes a program of enhancing the effectiveness of a new technology, Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS), through a series of studies which resulted in improvements in the technology itself as well as in how the technology is supported. Our approach emphasizes human facilitation and facilitative features embedded in the GDSS software.     

Labor-management contract negotiations in an electronic meeting room: A case study

We present perhaps the first case study of labor-management contract talks conducted in an electronic meeting room supported by a computer Negotiation Support System (NSS). The organization's union and management representatives spent a total of 57 hours (13 sessions) in the electronic meeting room; their efforts resulted successfully in a contract ratified by both sides. The NSS described comprised three tools from theGroup Systems electronic meeting system and three ad hoc tools. Besides the NSS, three other intervention factors were introduced in tandem with the NSS: new negotiation process techniques, the active involvement of third party mediators, and a unique negotiation setting. The new process techniques were introduced based on the goals of integrative bargaining and the Win-Win techniques. The negotiation process was divided into three distinct stages: strategy, issues, and bargaining.     

The Impact of Time Pressure and Information on Negotiation Process and Decisions

The amount of time available to reach an agreement, information about a negotiator's own position, and information about the opponent's position were manipulated in a simulated contract negotiation. As in decision making research, time pressure in negotiation was expected to decrease response time and change response strategy. Information was expected to be an advantage to negotiators when clarifying their preferences but a disadvantage if information about competing opponent interests was present. Results supported this expectation. Different patterns of concessions and in concessions and inconsistencies were found under high and low time pressure and type of information.     

Evaluating a Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision Support in Water Resources Management

In this paper we describe a framework for multicriteria modeling and support of multi-stakeholder decision processes. We report on its testing in the development of a new water level management policy for a regulated lake-river system in Finland. In the framework the stakeholders are involved in the decision process from the problem structuring stage to the group consensus seeking stage followed by a stage of seeking public acceptance for the policy. The framework aims at creating an evolutionary learning process. In this paper we also focus on the use of a new interactive method for finding and identifying Pareto-optimal alternatives. Role playing experiments with students are used to test the practical applicability of a negotiation support procedure called the method of improving directions. We also describe the preference programming approach for the aggregation of the stakeholder opinions in the final evaluation of alternatives and consensus seeking.     

A research framework for group support systems

Over the last decade, many methodologies and techniques have been devised to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of cooperative working. The efficacy of many of these approaches has not been rigorously assessed, causing doubt about their applicability and helping restrict their use. Additionally, research effort has been dissipated. The need is for a generally agreed framework within which research can be conducted and results determined. This article proposes such a framework, involving the identification of the context, process, and outcome variables which, a priori, are deemed important to understanding, and subsequently predicting, the appropriate forms of intervention in the workings of groups. Six major components have been identified: the organizational environment, the group context, the process context, the group process, the substantive outcomes, and process performance indicators. Within these six components, 16 macrovariables have been identified. Within these macrovariables, 90 variables have been selected that characterize an issue-handling situation and its outcomes. The framework is applicable to a very wide range of group support systems used in many contexts.     

GSS for Multi-Organizational Collaboration: Reflections on Process and Content

Multi-organizational collaboration has become the norm for modern organizations as they seek to survive and prosper in increasingly turbulent times. These collaborations can take many forms, but face problems due to different management styles, different cultures, and different operating modes of the participant organizations. These differences usually cause difficulties for the multi-organizational teams that are set up to make the collaboration operational. Group Support Systems (GSSs) is one possible way of supporting these multi-organization collaboration teams (MCTs). This paper builds and describes a conceptual framework that highlights the critical characteristics of these teams and how GSS might support their activities. The framework is based on a detailed analysis of three case studies using three different GSSs.     

A prototype NSS based on problem structure and suggestions toward more comprehensive negogiation support

Seeking an effective approach to supporting negotiation through the use of computer technology, we have constructed a prototype negotiation support system based on the concept of problem structure. Problem structure refers to the characteristics of the feasible settlement space and efficient frontiers as defined by the joint utility distribution of negotiators' utilities. Problem structure is recognized as playing a major role in negotiation processes and outcomes. The cognitive complexity and inherent uncertainty of typical negotiations make it difficult for negotiators to effectively visualize and “navigate” the settlement space defined by the problem structure. As a result, negotiators often resort to suboptimizing heuristics which produce inefficient and/or unsatisfying outcomes. It follows that a promising approach to negotiation support is to exploit the computational speed and graphics capabilities of computer technology to make problem structure and its implications more accessible. Thus, our prototype is designed to allow negotiators to hypothesize problem structure and to explore and manipulate the resulting settlement space quickly and easily. Preliminary experimentation has demonstrated the value of this approach and has suggested areas for extended, comprehensive support. A negotiation process formalism, Cognitive Action Theory, neural network technology, and computer simulation are well-suited to providing more comprehensive support, and we suggest an architecture for delivery through NSS.     

Information for decision making in marketing: the use of Group Support Systems (GSS)

Group Support Systems (GSS) Technology is an information technology which seeks to support collaborative work. Extensively used to support organisational activities, it has not yet been tested to the full within the market research setting. The paper reports on a GSS focus group meeting to determine key questions of concern about the National Training Reform Agenda. Participants were leaders in a primary industry in Australia and the questions would be related to a public relations exercise. GSS provided the opportunity to deal with complex issues efficiently and yet preserve the conversational characteristics of the focus group meeting.     

A Spreadsheet Module for Consistent Consensus Building in AHP-Group Decision Making

This paper presents a spreadsheet module developed with Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic to search for consensus when dealing with AHP in group decision making. On the basis of the theoretical results included in the paper Moreno-Jiménez et al. (2003), this spreadsheet module allows us to construct, in a local context (one criterion), the Consistent Consensus Matrix (CCM) corresponding to the core of consistency associated with the actors involved in the decision making process. By means of simulation techniques, this module provides, for each of the different values of the inconsistency thresholds considered, the preference structures derived from the interval incomplete matrix (CCM) that represents the groups core of consistency. This information will be used to establish consensus paths between the actors involved in the resolution process, one of the most important goals in distributed and participatory decision making.This paper has received partial financial support from the Research Project of the University of Zaragoza (2002): Herramientas decisionales para el constructivismo cognitivo (ref. 228-056). A previous version of this paper has been presented at the Group Decision and Negotiation session of the EURO-INFORMS Congress in Istanbul, 2003.     

Perspectives on representation and analysis of negotiation: Towards cognitive support systems

The rapid expansion of Decision and Negotiation Support Systems has been built mainly on decision-theoretic approaches. This has resulted in the decision maker being viewed through the lens of the problem. In this article, the focus is on the decision maker's view of the problem. Three levels of problem articulation are described. Special emphasis is placed on the needs level and the implications it carries for the cognitive and instrumental levels. The three levels of articulation, the organizational model of making decision in social settings, and the three basic approaches to decision making form the basis for computer support focused on understanding and change rather than preferences and outcomes. We argue that in the dynamic, interactive context characteristic of negotiations, a cognitive support system based on restructurable modeling provides a richer basis for support.     

Multi-agent interaction processes: From oligopoly theory to decentralized artificial intelligence

This article examines the group processes studied in oligopoly theory and in decentralized artificial intelligence. We develop a unifying perspective for the research on the behavior of autonomous interacting agents. Among the many questions of interest in these disciplines are the ways of creating and reaching cooperation by a group of self-interested independent decentralized agents. In this respect, the models and results of oligopoly theory can also be used both in decentralized artificial intelligence and in many other areas of research, such as group decision making, negotiation support, and organizational theory. In particular, the important idea of reshaping goals with strategic information sharing and transmission—incentive communication—has received little attention outside the field of economics. On the other hand, oligopoly theory and experimental economics can especially benefit from the computational methods and tools of artificial intelligence and modern decision support technology. To demonstrate this we have built a prototype of an experimental market analysis environment. Its potential in the analysis of group processes is illustrated with examples.     

Applying Multiattribute-Based Group Decision Making Techniques in Complex Equipment Selection Tasks

A practicing industrial engineer, even an experienced decision maker, needs help in the sense that there is a necessity to use more logical or analytical decision support tools, especially when dealing with control and instrumentation projects which are often worth millions of dollars. In this article we propose an algorithm which can support the process of group decision making relating to industrial automation, especially involving the selection of control and instrumentation equipment. The aim of this article is to look only at the algorithm's application and how it is applied. To this end, two test cases are used as examples: (1) selecting a local area network for installation in an academic environment; and (2) selecting an integrated control system for a real-world pulp and paper mill. Obtained results show that the algorithm leads to a satisfactory solution. A software form of the algorithm is being programmed for use as a decision support tool.     

Household preference revisions and decision making: The role of disconfirmation

In this paper, we examine the role of disconfirmation as an important determinant of household preference revisions and decision making. Although prior research has examined decision influence and information exchange in household decision making, the impact of disconfirmation on individual family member preferences and the joint household preference has not been explicitly studied. Analogous to the main types of social influence found within groups, we identify two types of disconfirmation that impact individual preferences arising from family interaction or discussion. These two types of disconfirmation are informational disconfirmation, related to new product information revealed in family discussion being different than one's prior beliefs, and preference disconfirmation, where a family member has incorrect expectations of the preferences of other influential household members. An empirical study involving a household vacation decision demonstrates significant disconfirmation effects in explaining individuals' post-discussion preferences, as well as the joint household preference and decision. Based on the empirical results, we discuss various implications and suggest future research to study the specific consequences of disconfirmation in household decisions.