Dynamics of relational goods

We propose a model of social relationships in which relational goods are the results of individual joint efforts and past attitudes toward socialising. We show the effect of individual different inclinations toward social relationships on the dynamic properties of the system either assuming homogeneous or heterogeneous individuals. Particularly, we show the role assumed by the environment and past experience of individuals on the dynamic outcome. We use a triangular finite-different system to investigate these issues. We analyse the conditions for the convergence of the system to a low-socialising trap and we propose a few policy corrections to get out of it.     

Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks

This paper develops a new approach to change-point modelling that allows the number of change-points in the observed sample to be unknown. The model we develop assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. It approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter (TVP) model with a change-point every period and the change-point model with a small number of regimes. We focus considerable attention on the construction of reasonable hierarchical priors both for regime durations and for the parameters that characterize each regime. A Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler is constructed to estimate a version of our model, which allows for change in conditional means and variances. We show how real-time forecasting can be done in an efficient manner using sequential importance sampling. Our techniques are found to work well in an empirical exercise involving U.S. GDP growth and inflation. Empirical results suggest that the number of change-points is larger than previously estimated in these series and the implied model is similar to a TVP (with stochastic volatility) model.     

A model of income distribution in a revenue-sharing firm

Income distribution within a fixed-membership firm is modeled assuming that all net revenue is distributed to workers. The payment system used is a generalization, for heterogeneous workers, of an income equation first adopted by Sen. We introduce the assumption that payment rates for different workers are chosen to maximize an individualistic welfare function for the firm. A general result for a maximin welfare function is obtained and, using a simulation, we explore the effects of different elasticities of substitution in individual utility functions and different weights put on egalitarianism in the welfare function.     

Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks

This paper provides evidence on the role played by monetary policy in the transmission of oil shocks to the US economy. We show that for the period since 1986, oil shocks have had a negative effect on stock returns, regardless of whether the oil shock is defined as the percentage change in the price of oil or a nonlinear transformation of that series. We then demonstrate that there is no relationship between the reaction of individual stock prices to oil shocks and to monetary policy shocks. This implies that oil shocks do have effects on the economy beyond their effect on monetary policy. We conclude that systematic monetary policy is not as effective as suggested in some previous studies.     

Parimutuel contests with strategic risk-sensitive bettors

Existing models in the parimutuel betting literature typically explain betting data by either assuming a single, representative bettor with certain risk preferences or by assuming that a number of risk neutral bettors compete strategically within a game theoretic framework. We construct a theoretical framework of parimutuel markets in which we model both strategic interaction and individual bettor risk preferences, distinguishing between sophisticated insiders and recreational outsiders. We solve this model analytically for the optimal insider betting amount in a static symmetric Nash equilibrium. A new data set of 126 million individual horse race bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2014 allows us to calibrate the model. We find that insiders (those betting $100 or more) outperform outsiders by 7.5% in terms of realized returns. The best fit of the model to the data is obtained when insiders are assumed to be risk neutral and to have an information advantage of 0.08 in probability terms. This finding provides empirical support for the common assumption of risk neutrality in strategic interaction models of parimutuel betting.     

Kalman filter approach to estimate the demand for international reserves

A few studies have provided empirical support for the fact that the demand for international reserves experienced structural instability in 1973 and 1979 due to a change in exchange rate system and oil price shocks. Thus, under the current managed float due to exchange rate and oil price fluctuations, coefficient estimates could be time dependent. After showing that indeed, estimated coefficients are time dependent, the Kalman filter estimation method is employed and the reserve demand function for 19 industrial countries estimated. The Kalman filter approach incorporates the time-varying properties of coefficients estimates.     

Bid Functions in Auctions and Fair Division Games: Experimental Evidence

In auctions a seller offers a commodity for sale and collects the revenue. In fair division games the object is collectively owned by the group of bidders who equally share the revenue. We run an experiment in which the participants face four types of allocation games (auctions and fair division game under two price rules, first– versus second–price rule). We collect entire bid functions rather than bids for single values and investigate price and efficiency of the different trading institutions. We find that the first–price auction is more efficient than the second–price auction, whereas economic rationality assuming heterogeneous bidders suggests the opposite. Furthermore, we study the structure of individual bid functions.     

Health-related quality of life and compensating income variation for 18 health conditions in Iceland

ABSTRACT

Using data from an Icelandic health and well-being survey, carried out in 2007, 2009, and 2012, we estimate the value of health-related suffering in two different ways. Our primary aim is to obtain the monetary compensation needed to maintain the same level of well-being with and without 18 health conditions using the compensating-income-variation approach. This method employs individual well-being measures with no hypothetical situations involved, thus offering a solution to biases of frequently used methods to value non-marketed goods. We also use zero-one normalization of regression coefficients to estimate health-related quality-of-life weights. Results from monetary valuations indicate that 1,685,594 USD are needed per year to compensate for the presence of melancholy, 206,273 USD for frequent headaches, 153,396 USD for severely low vision, and 80,824 USD for severe monthly menstrual cramps. This research adds to the literature by employing two rarely used methods to a range of health conditions. By valuing several different conditions with the same sample and methodology this research provides a ranking between the conditions, aiding policy makers in prioritizing scarce resources. We do however advise against using the normalization method for policy purposes at this point, due to the deviation of results from the general literature.     

Reference Pricing with Elastic Demand for Pharmaceuticals

In this paper, we re‐examine the properties of two commonly adopted government reimbursement schemes for pharmaceuticals: reference pricing and fixed percentage reimbursement. We depart from the previous literature by assuming that the individual demand is price‐sensitive and depends on the copayment rate (i.e., the part paid by each consumer). We obtain two novel results under reference pricing: first, as the copayment rate increases, so do pharmaceutical prices; second, this increase in pharmaceutical prices reduces social welfare. Whilst reference pricing does emerge as a preferable reimbursement scheme, demand elasticities and the copayment rate interact in complex ways. This leads (unexpectedly) to the possibility that a higher copayment rate (lower reimbursement rate) results in higher government expenditure.     

Oil and the Euro area economy

We examine the macroeconomic effects of different types of oil shocks and the oil transmission mechanism in the Euro area. A comparison is made with the US and across individual member countries. First, we find that the underlying source of the oil price shift is crucial to determine the repercussions on the economy and the appropriate monetary policy reaction. Second, the transmission mechanism is considerably different compared to the US. In particular, inflationary effects in the US are mainly driven by a strong direct pass-through of rising energy prices and indirect effects of higher production costs. In contrast, Euro area inflation reacts sluggishly and is much more driven by second-round effects of increasing wages. The monetary policy reaction of the ECB to oil shocks is also strikingly different compared to the FED. The inflation objective, relative to the output stabilization objective, appears more important for Euro area monetary authorities than for the FED. Third, there are substantial asymmetries across member countries. These differences are due to different labour market dynamics which are further aggravated by a common monetary policy stance which does not fit all.
--- Gert Peersman and Ine Van Robays     

MEASURING ECONOMIC INSECURITY

We provide an axiomatic treatment of the measurement of economic insecurity, assuming that individual insecurity depends on the current wealth level and its variations experienced in the past. The first component plays the role of a buffer stock to rely on in case of an adverse future event. The second component determines the confidence an individual has on her ability to overcome a loss in the future. Two classes of linear measures are characterized with sets of plausible and intuitive axioms and, for each of these classes, an important subclass is identified.     

中国经济增长阶段的识别与解读

有关经济增长阶段性的研究尚存许多争议,主要原因之一在于研究方法是否考虑到经济增长的随机性因素。为此,将有序样本聚类与变点分析结合起来,对中国经济增长的长时间跨期数据进行了实证分析,不仅找到了与同类研究高度一致的变点,还发现了一些新变点,并给出了这些变点更真实的解读。     

International benchmarking of electricity distribution utilities

Benchmarking by means of applying the DEA model is appearing as an interesting alternative for regulators under the new regimes for electricity distributors. A sample of large electricity distribution utilities from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and The Netherlands for the year 1997 is studied by assuming a common production frontier for all countries. The peers supporting the benchmark frontier are from all countries. New indices describing cross-country connections at the level of individual peers and their inefficient units as well as between countries are developed, and novel applications of Malmquist productivity indices comparing units from different countries are performed.     

EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON STOCK MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM NEW GENERATION OF STAR MODEL

This paper aims to introduce an evidence of new generations of smooth transition regression model (STAR). It proposes two different forms of STAR model. First: a time varying STAR model (TVSTAR), which identify the estimated coefficients at each point of time. Second: a full specification STAR model (FSSTAR) which provides a consistent estimate even in the existence of some measurement errors, omitted variables and even if the true functional form is unknown. This study will consider the two proposed models and the traditional STAR model to examine the nonlinear relation between oil price and stock market index for two countries (Egypt and Turkey). Our results confirm the existing of a non‐linear relation between oil prices and stock return for both countries. The suggested models gives more accurate information about the time varying effect of oil price changes on stock markets and robust forecasts.     

OPEC: Retrospective and prospects 1973–1990

Using a relatively simple economic model of the world oil market, we review what has happened since the price quadrupling of 1973–1974, comparing the model's results with actual historical data. We also make projections through 1990, assuming that OPEC's real price is either held constant or determined by a target-capacity-utilization pricing rule.     

Return and volatility transmission between oil prices and oil-exporting and oil-importing countries

This paper provides further evidence of the comovements and dynamic volatility spillovers between stock markets and oil prices for a sample of five oil-importing countries (USA, Italy, Germany, Netherland and France) and four oil-exporting countries (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela). We make use of a multivariate GJR-DCC-GARCH approach developed by Glosten et al. (1993). The results show that: i) dynamic correlations do not differ for oil-importing and oil-exporting economies; ii) cross-market comovements as measured by conditional correlation coefficients increase positively in response to significant aggregate demand (precautionary demand) and oil price shocks due to global business cycle fluctuations or world turmoil; iii) oil prices exhibit positive correlation with stock markets; and iv) oil assets are not a good ‘safe haven’ for protection against stock market losses during periods of turmoil.     

Overconfidence in the Markets for Lemons

We extend Akerlof's “Market for Lemons” (1970, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, 488–500) by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is on display for sale. Overconfident buyers do not update according to Bayes' rule but take the noisy signal at face value. We show that the presence of overconfident buyers can stabilize the market outcome by preventing total adverse selection. However, this stabilization comes at a cost: rational buyers are crowded out of the market.     

Social networking and individual outcomes beyond the mean field case

We study individually optimized continuous outcomes in a dynamic environment in the presence of social interactions, and where the interaction topology may be either exogenous and time varying, or endogenous. The model accommodates more general social effects than those of the mean-field type. We address endogenous networking by assuming that each individual chooses the weights she attaches to the characteristics and the decisions of other agents. This amounts to choosing the elements of a row of a weighted adjacency matrix. Endogenous social networking thus involves simultaneity between decisions and patterns of directed social interactions.     

Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective

This article investigates the spatial interdependence within China's real estate industry, a sector assuming increasing importance in the national economy. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model allows us to explicitly address the presence of spatial linkages, including spillover and backwash effects, without a stringent requirement on data. Applying the model to monthly Chinese provincial data for the first time we highlight clear advantages in forecasting and steady-state value prediction. We also demonstrate through the contemporaneous correlation coefficients a growing divide between the previously highly industrialized north and the rest of China. The insights provided by our empirical study have clear value to a wide range of audiences, including researchers, policy makers, and business investors.     

Multidimensional inequality comparisons: A compensation perspective

We provide a unified treatment of the two approaches pioneered by Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982, 1987) [3], [4] by resorting to compensation principles in the bivariate case. We treat the attributes of individual utility asymmetrically by assuming that one attribute can be used to compensate another. Our main result consists of two sufficient second-order stochastic dominance conditions. In the case where the compensated variable has a discrete distribution, the distribution of the compensating variable must satisfy a condition which degenerates to the Sequential Generalized Lorenz test for identical marginal distributions of the compensated variable. Furthermore, the distributions of the compensated variable must satisfy the Generalized Lorenz test.