A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model for subjective well-being

This article proposes a new approach to modelling longitudinal perceptions of subjective well-being (SWB). Several measures have been proposed in the literature to assess SWB and its determinants. Statistical approaches adopted include ordered probit models, fixed and random effects models and cross-lagged structural equation models. The British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) is a longitudinal national representative survey and contains several measures of SWB. Using BHPS data from 2002 to 2005, this article considers two main latent dimensions of life satisfaction: satisfaction with leisure and satisfaction with material issues. The latent trajectories of these two latent life satisfaction dimensions are simultaneously modeled in Mplus, using a multi-process, second-order latent growth curve model. Significant determinants of leisure and material satisfaction growth trajectories include socio-demographic characteristics, number of children in the household, number of hours worked per week, income and perceived health status.     

Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode (“sticky price mode”) but is low at the other mode (“flexible price mode”). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.     

A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.     

A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications

In this paper, we develop a four-parameter generalization of the logistic growth curve, the flexible-logistic (FLOG) model. It is shown that the FLOG model is sufficiently general to locate its point of inflection anywhere between its upper and lower bounds: it can offer wide variation in its degree of symmetry for a given point of inflection. Although additional parameters always produce a better within-sample fit. the specific flexibility introduced by the FLOG class of models emphasises the forecast properties by controlling the saturation level and the approach to that level. The model is subjected to a number of theoretical and empirical tests and is applied to three sets of telecommunications data.     

Double serial correlation for multilevel growth curve models

Multilevel growth curve models for repeated measures data have become increasingly popular and stand as a flexible tool for investigating longitudinal change in students’ outcome variables. In addition, these models allow the estimation of school effects on students’ outcomes though making strong assumptions about the serial independence of level-1 residuals. This paper introduces a method which takes into account the serial correlation of level-1 residuals and also introduces such serial correlation at level-2 in a complex double serial correlation (DSC) multilevel growth curve model. The results of this study from both real and simulated data show a great improvement in school effects estimates compared to those that have previously been found using multilevel growth curve models without correcting for DSC for both the students’ status and growth criteria.     

A model of growth with inherited tastes

This research aims at studying a general equilibrium closed economy with overlapping generations and inherited tastes (aspirations), as in de la Croix (Econ Lett 53(1):89–96, 1996). It shows that the interaction between the intensity of aspirations and the elasticity of substitution of effective consumption affects the qualitative and quantitative long-term dynamics from both local and global perspectives. The related literature is extended by showing that (1) the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation found by de la Croix (1996) does not necessarily give rise to fluctuations and (2) endogenous (long-lasting) fluctuations occur through the emergence of period-doubling bifurcations.     

A neoclassical model of interregional economic growth

Interregional economic growth is characterized by free trade, capital movements and labour migration. An interregional equilibrium and a steady state are likely to exist, and if a disturbance occurs, there might be a tendency back to equilibrium. Output and income grow at the same rate in all regions, although the regions differ in technology, propensity to save and natural growth of labour; these factors also determine the speed of expansion. Yet if the natural growth of labour is too fast (too slow), then capital and labour tend to a single region.     

A simulation of the insurance industry: the problem of risk model homogeneity

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model...     

交通机动化爆炸性增长的模型分析

近年来我国城市交通出现较为严重的拥挤,其中一个重要的背景原因就是机动化进程不但呈现加速趋势,而且其增长具有爆炸性,而以往对机动化水平的预测明显偏低。基于交通规划预测中常用的逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型分析了爆炸性机动化的形成机制,并在建立收入增长的动态模型的基础上进行了数值模拟,进而提出了相关的政策建议。     

A simple urban growth model with durable housing

In the last decade the static theory of residential urban location and land use has been extensively developed. The theory has generated many useful insights, but because it ignores growth and the durability of housing and urban infrastructure there are many urban phenomena it cannot explain. In this paper a simple urban growth model with durable housing, in which all builders have perfect foresight, is presented. The discussion focuses on the qualitative differences between the economics of this model, the static class of models, and a class of dynamic models in which myopic expectations are assumed.     

A network model of economic growth: A regional analysis

In this paper we consider a linear model of economic growth in which production and consumption occur at specific sites represented by nodes, and commodities can be shipped from one node to another along arcs. It is shown that under fairly reasonable conditions a stationary optimal growth plan will exist and that it can be computed by means of Lemke's linear complementary algorithm.     

A two sector endogenous growth model with habit formation

In this paper, we study an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital in which consumption habits enter the utility function multiplicatively. We show that although the utility function with multiplicative habits is nonconcave and unbounded, an interior optimal growth path still exists, it is uniquely determined and it converges to a balanced growth path. We also find that habit formation in consumption lowers the convergence speed of the optimal path toward the balanced growth path.     

A variety-expansion model of growth with external habit formation

This paper introduces consumption externalities into one of the base line models of growth in which continuing expansion of product variety sustains long-term growth. We assume that consumers set a benchmark stock of consumption for each good so that there are commodity-specific external effects. Each good is produced by a monopolistically competitive firm and the firm exploits the presence of consumption external effects in determining its profit-maximizing price. Given those settings, we show that the introduction of consumption externalities may affect the balanced-growth characterization, transitional dynamics and policy effects in fundamental manners.     

Variety in the video game industry: An empirical study of the Wundt curve

This study analyzes the effect of variety on consumer utility using historical behavioral information for 1,397 consumers participating in 729,049 unique rounds of play. We show that consumers generally exhibit a preference for variety as part of their gameplay utility. The relationship between variety and utility is nonlinear and follows, at least for some types of variety, an inverted u‐shape as predicted by the Wundt curve. Our results represent the first such evidence on the importance of variety in video gaming, which has significant implications for consumption through optimization of gameplay utility to satisfy the demand for variety.     

Felony case scheduling policies and continuances: A simulation study

The criminal justice system consists of interacting parts and represents a dynamic process through which the accused moves in stages. This study focuses on felony criminal offenses and the court stage of the judicial process. Specifically this study examines and evaluates utilization of the courtrooms of a legal system under pre-trial policy considerations governing case flow, and identifies problem areas of under-capacity, or bottlenecks. The model presented utilizes simulation as a means of describing the system, and conducting alternative (scheduling) policy requirements. The results of the study reveal that due process can be achieved while minimizing interference with those who want a “speedy trial”.     

P2B融资模式存在的风险及防范对策研究

小微企业为我国的经济增长做出了卓越的贡献,但是小微企业普遍存在融资难、融资贵的问题.P2B由P2P衍生创新而来,2013年P2B模式开始崛起并迅速发展起来.P2B模式具有安全性高、收益稳定的优点,但也存在不少风险.为此,分析P2B平台存在的风险,同时提出防范风险的有效对策.     

改进增值税会计核算模式探微

现行增值税会计核算不能反映增值税纳税额对企业当期损益的影响.本文在探讨其原因的基础上对增值税会计核算变革趋势作了说明.