A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model for subjective well-being

This article proposes a new approach to modelling longitudinal perceptions of subjective well-being (SWB). Several measures have been proposed in the literature to assess SWB and its determinants. Statistical approaches adopted include ordered probit models, fixed and random effects models and cross-lagged structural equation models. The British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) is a longitudinal national representative survey and contains several measures of SWB. Using BHPS data from 2002 to 2005, this article considers two main latent dimensions of life satisfaction: satisfaction with leisure and satisfaction with material issues. The latent trajectories of these two latent life satisfaction dimensions are simultaneously modeled in Mplus, using a multi-process, second-order latent growth curve model. Significant determinants of leisure and material satisfaction growth trajectories include socio-demographic characteristics, number of children in the household, number of hours worked per week, income and perceived health status.     

On MLEs in an extended multivariate linear growth curve model

In this paper the extended growth curve model is considered. The literature comprises two versions of the model. These models can be connected by one-to-one reparameterizations but since estimators are non-linear it is not obvious how to transmit properties of estimators from one model to another. Since it is only for one of the models where detailed knowledge concerning estimators is available (Kollo and von Rosen, Advanced multivariate statistics with matrices. Springer, Dordrecht, 2005) the object in this paper is therefore to present uniqueness properties and moment relations for the estimators of the second model. One aim of the paper is also to complete the results for the model presented in Kollo and von Rosen (Advanced multivariate statistics with matrices. Springer, Dordrecht, 2005). The presented proofs of uniqueness for linear combinations of estimators are valid for both models and are simplifications of proofs given in Kollo and von Rosen (Advanced multivariate statistics with matrices. Springer, Dordrecht, 2005).     

Distortions in the neoclassical growth model: A cross-country analysis

This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of 22 OECD countries for the 1970–2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates is assessed. The efficiency wedge proves to be determinant in enabling models to replicate movements in output and investment, while the labor wedge is important to predict fluctuations in hours worked. Modeling distortions to the savings decision holds little quantitative or qualitative relevance. Also, investment seems to be the hardest aggregate to replicate, as prediction errors concerning output and hours worked are typically one order of magnitude smaller. These conclusions are statistically significant across the countries in the sample and are not limited to output drops. Finally, the geographical distance between countries and their degree of openness to trade are shown to contain information with regard to the wedges, stressing the importance of international mechanisms of transmission between distortions to the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model.     

Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode (“sticky price mode”) but is low at the other mode (“flexible price mode”). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.     

A simulation study of estimation methods in the analytic hierarchy process

This paper uses a simulation analysis to investigate the statistical accuracy and rank preservation capability of the AHP estimation methods. The methods under study consist of: the eigenvalue, mean transformation, row geometric mean, column geometric mean, harmonic mean and simple row average. The methods are compared under three distributions for error term—gamma, lognormal and uniform—and under two types of input matrices of various sizes.     

A vintage model of urban growth

This paper develops a vintage model of residential housing for an open city, where the utility level of residents is given by an exogenous function of time. Producers behave myopically in that they believe the future price per unit of housing services will equal the current price. Demolition occurs when the expected present value of profits from continuing to operate an existing structure equals the expected present value of profits from redevelopment. The model is analyzed under the assumption of Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions and constant rates of growth for income, commuting cost, the utility level, and the prices of non-land capital and agricultural land. Computer simulation provides a concrete example of a city which grows according to the model.     

A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.     

Double serial correlation for multilevel growth curve models

Multilevel growth curve models for repeated measures data have become increasingly popular and stand as a flexible tool for investigating longitudinal change in students’ outcome variables. In addition, these models allow the estimation of school effects on students’ outcomes though making strong assumptions about the serial independence of level-1 residuals. This paper introduces a method which takes into account the serial correlation of level-1 residuals and also introduces such serial correlation at level-2 in a complex double serial correlation (DSC) multilevel growth curve model. The results of this study from both real and simulated data show a great improvement in school effects estimates compared to those that have previously been found using multilevel growth curve models without correcting for DSC for both the students’ status and growth criteria.     

A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications

In this paper, we develop a four-parameter generalization of the logistic growth curve, the flexible-logistic (FLOG) model. It is shown that the FLOG model is sufficiently general to locate its point of inflection anywhere between its upper and lower bounds: it can offer wide variation in its degree of symmetry for a given point of inflection. Although additional parameters always produce a better within-sample fit. the specific flexibility introduced by the FLOG class of models emphasises the forecast properties by controlling the saturation level and the approach to that level. The model is subjected to a number of theoretical and empirical tests and is applied to three sets of telecommunications data.     

A model of growth with inherited tastes

This research aims at studying a general equilibrium closed economy with overlapping generations and inherited tastes (aspirations), as in de la Croix (Econ Lett 53(1):89–96, 1996). It shows that the interaction between the intensity of aspirations and the elasticity of substitution of effective consumption affects the qualitative and quantitative long-term dynamics from both local and global perspectives. The related literature is extended by showing that (1) the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation found by de la Croix (1996) does not necessarily give rise to fluctuations and (2) endogenous (long-lasting) fluctuations occur through the emergence of period-doubling bifurcations.     

A neoclassical model of interregional economic growth

Interregional economic growth is characterized by free trade, capital movements and labour migration. An interregional equilibrium and a steady state are likely to exist, and if a disturbance occurs, there might be a tendency back to equilibrium. Output and income grow at the same rate in all regions, although the regions differ in technology, propensity to save and natural growth of labour; these factors also determine the speed of expansion. Yet if the natural growth of labour is too fast (too slow), then capital and labour tend to a single region.     

A simulation of the insurance industry: the problem of risk model homogeneity

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model...     

交通机动化爆炸性增长的模型分析

近年来我国城市交通出现较为严重的拥挤,其中一个重要的背景原因就是机动化进程不但呈现加速趋势,而且其增长具有爆炸性,而以往对机动化水平的预测明显偏低。基于交通规划预测中常用的逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型分析了爆炸性机动化的形成机制,并在建立收入增长的动态模型的基础上进行了数值模拟,进而提出了相关的政策建议。     

A simple urban growth model with durable housing

In the last decade the static theory of residential urban location and land use has been extensively developed. The theory has generated many useful insights, but because it ignores growth and the durability of housing and urban infrastructure there are many urban phenomena it cannot explain. In this paper a simple urban growth model with durable housing, in which all builders have perfect foresight, is presented. The discussion focuses on the qualitative differences between the economics of this model, the static class of models, and a class of dynamic models in which myopic expectations are assumed.     

A network model of economic growth: A regional analysis

In this paper we consider a linear model of economic growth in which production and consumption occur at specific sites represented by nodes, and commodities can be shipped from one node to another along arcs. It is shown that under fairly reasonable conditions a stationary optimal growth plan will exist and that it can be computed by means of Lemke's linear complementary algorithm.     

A model of the economy based on an interpolated growth matrix

This paper deals with direct and indirect growth rates of sectors and with the interpolated growth matrix of the economy. Its purpose is to determine the model based on the interpolated growth matrix which enables a new approach in the planning of the growth of the economy. The formulation of such a model is useful for the expression of specific structural problems as well as for the extrapolation of system elements into the future. It is characterized by the use of lower and upper projections of growth and mutual relations of sector growths as a basis for programming future sector changes. In contrast to methods in which the direct growth rates of sectors are given, in this case such trends are determined as endogenous variables. At the same time, we use a large amount of data by means of the indirect growth rates in order to describe more completely the dependences among the sectors.     

Variety in the video game industry: An empirical study of the Wundt curve

This study analyzes the effect of variety on consumer utility using historical behavioral information for 1,397 consumers participating in 729,049 unique rounds of play. We show that consumers generally exhibit a preference for variety as part of their gameplay utility. The relationship between variety and utility is nonlinear and follows, at least for some types of variety, an inverted u‐shape as predicted by the Wundt curve. Our results represent the first such evidence on the importance of variety in video gaming, which has significant implications for consumption through optimization of gameplay utility to satisfy the demand for variety.