Does program trading contribute to excess comovement of stock returns?

Daily returns of stocks with high program trading comove more with each other but less with others. This significant comovement is disconnected with market movements and news of fundamentals and becomes stronger when market uncertainty is higher. It can be explained by neither the hypotheses of gradual information diffusion and liquidity provision nor the effects of quantitative trading signals, earnings announcements and index fund trading. Its non-fundamental nature is further demonstrated by the observation of program trading stimulating return reversals. Underlying this comovement is the high persistence of program trading. Our findings support the theory of habitat investing and demonstrate program trading creates a distinct source of excess return comovement.     

Pricing volatility of stock returns with volatile and persistent components

This paper introduces a two-component volatility model based on first moments of both components to describe the dynamics of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and the persistent part of volatility, respectively. The model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock markets. Their in-mean effects on returns are tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component is much more important for the volatility dynamic process than is the volatile component. However, the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most markets. A positive or risk-premium effect exists between the return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for the return dynamic process.

Changes in audit effort and changes in auditors’ disclosures of risks of material misstatement

This paper investigates whether auditors' year-to-year modification to risks of material misstatements (RMMs) in extended auditors' reports (EARs) are associated with changes in underlying audit effort, as proxied by changes in audit fees. We examine the dynamics of RMMs over time in terms of adding or dropping specific RMMs. Our main results show that, on average, audit fees increase more from the previous year's fees when more RMMs are added to the current year's EAR. This increase is partially offset by dropping RMMs that were disclosed in the previous year, but changes in audit fees are not significantly affected by dropping RMMs without adding new RMMs. Further analysis suggests the effect of added RMMs is attributable to “new” RMMs originating with the auditor and that added RMMs that were previously known, based on related disclosures in the prior year's audit committee report, do not significantly impact on changes in audit fees. Overall, our results suggest that changes in the choice of RMMs included in EARs reflect changes in underlying audit effort.     

China’s anti-corruption campaign and stock returns of luxury goods firms

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper uses the unexpected launch of the Chinese anti-corruption campaign in 2012 to study the stock market effects of political risk. Political...     

Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation

While convertible offerings announced between 1984 and 1999 induce average abnormal stock returns of −1.69%, convertible announcement effects over the period 2000–2008 are more than twice as negative (−4.59%). We hypothesize that this evolution is attributable to a shift in the convertible bond investor base from long-only investors towards convertible arbitrage funds. These funds buy convertibles and short the underlying stocks, causing downward price pressure. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the differences in announcement returns between the Traditional Investor period (1984–1999) and the Arbitrage period (2000–September 2008) disappear when controlling for arbitrage-induced short selling associated with a range of hedging strategies. Post-issuance stock returns are also in line with the arbitrage explanation. Average announcement effects of convertibles issued during the Global Financial Crisis are even more negative (−9.12%), due to a combination of short-selling price pressure and issuer, issue, and macroeconomic characteristics associated with these offerings.     

‘Optimal’ probabilistic and directional predictions of financial returns

This paper examines the probability of returns exceeding a threshold, extending earlier work of Christoffersen and Diebold (2006) on volatility dynamics and sign predictability. We find that the choice of the threshold matters and that a zero threshold (leading to sign predictions) does not lead to the largest probability response to changes in volatility dynamics. Under certain conditions there is a threshold that has maximum responsiveness to changes in volatility dynamics that leads to ‘optimal’ probabilistic predictions. We connect the evolution of volatility to probabilistic predictions and show that the volatility ratio is the crucial variable in this context. The overall results strengthen the arguments in favor of accurate volatility measurement and prediction, as volatility dynamics are integrated into the ‘optimal’ threshold. We illustrate our findings using daily and monthly data for the S&P500 index.     

Skin in the game: personal stock holdings and investors’ response to stock analysis on social media

Review of Accounting Studies - Motivated by concerns that financial positions impair analyst objectivity, we examine investor perceptions of the financial positions of nonprofessional analysts...     

Firm characteristics and audit committees complying with ’best practice‘ membership guidelines

This study investigates demand and supply characteristics associated with firms that voluntarily established audit committees meeting ‘best practice’ membership guidelines. We focus on a set of best practice criteria rather than on the separate elements of the best practice criteria as in past studies. We conduct our tests using a sample of New Zealand listed companies that, relative to firms in other capital markets, are smaller and have more concentrated ownership. This setting differs from prior research because we expect the costs of voluntarily achieving best practice to be reasonably high. The results show that demand factors are not significantly related to the presence of an audit committee that conforms with best practice membership guidelines. However, supply factors (i.e. those firms with larger and more independent boards) are more likely to form audit committees that meet best practice. These results suggest that compliance costs will be greater for firms with smaller and less independent boards of directors if they are required to comply with best practice requirements.     

Group audits: Are audit quality and price associated with the Lead auditor’s decision to accept responsibility?

Lead auditors frequently rely on work performed by Other auditors, especially when auditing clients with operations in multiple countries. The PCAOB has expressed concern that the quality of such group audits may differ depending on whether the Lead auditor accepts or declines responsibility for work done by Other auditors. The PCAOB also has been concerned with the venue through which Lead auditors and Other auditors disclose their participation in group audits, including disclosure of whether Lead auditors accept or decline responsibility. To investigate these issues, we employ a sample consisting entirely of group audit engagements. We identify Lead auditors taking responsibility from PCAOB Form 2, filed by Other auditors of U.S. registrants for fiscal years 2009 to 2017. We identify Lead auditors not accepting responsibility from audit report disclosures during the same period. The results suggest that Lead auditors accepting responsibility charge higher audit fees but provide audits of no higher quality, and possibly of even lower quality. These results are robust to various additional analyses. Our research contributes to the ongoing debate over how the participation of Other auditors affects audit quality.     

‘Slow-burn’ spillover and ‘fast and furious’ contagion: a study of international stock markets

‘Fast and furious’ contagion across capital markets is an important phenomenon in an increasingly integrated financial world. Different from ‘slow-burn’ spillover or interdependence among these markets, ‘fast and furious’ contagion can occur instantly. To investigate this kind of contagion from the US, Japan and Hong Kong to other Asian economies, we design a research strategy to capture fundamental interdependence, or ‘slow-burn’ spillover, among these stock markets as well as short-term departures from this interdependence. Based on these departures, we propose a new contagion measure which reveals how one market responds over time to a shock in another market. We also propose international portfolio analysis for contagion via variance decomposition from the portfolio manager’s perspective. Using this research strategy, we find that the US stock market was cointegrated with the Asian stock markets during four specific periods from 3 July 1997 to 30 April 2014. Beyond this fundamental interdependence, the shocks from both Japan and Hong Kong have significant ‘fast and furious’ contagion effects on other Asian stock markets during the US subprime crisis, but the shocks from the US have no such effects.     

Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market

This study finds evidence that a rise in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to a decline in stock returns in Chinese market; however, a positive coefficient was observed in the lagged EPU as stock prices rebound. This phenomenon also holds true for a rise in uncertainty innovations in fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy and global policy. The evidence leads to conclude that policy uncertainty premiums should be priced into China’s stock prices. An escalation of U.S. policy uncertainty has a significantly harmful effect on Chinese stocks regardless of whether firms are stated own or listed on U.S. market.     

The effect of small audit firms’ failure to remediate the PCAOB’s quality control criticisms on audit market segmentation

This paper examines the role of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) quality control inspection program on market segmentation of small firms’ audit services. Specifically, we investigate how non-remediation of quality control criticisms (QCCs) affects the supply and demand of low-quality audits. We find that remediation of QCCs improves audit quality for small accounting firms. However, some small accounting firms do not remediate QCCs (NR firms) and continue to provide low audit quality. We investigate how NR clients react to the disclosure of non-remediation of QCCs. We find that NR clients with low agency costs are more likely to retain NR firms after the disclosure of non-remediation. This finding is consistent with our expectation that voluntary QCC remediation creates a low-quality audit market segment for NR firms. Our findings suggest that the public disclosure of QCCs is not sufficient to remove low-quality auditors. Instead, NR clients use the disclosure of non-remediation of QCCs as a signal to sort themselves into segments based on their demand for audit quality. We are the first to study and find that PCAOB inspections, and specifically the voluntary nature of remediation and public disclosure of lack of remediation, create market segmentation.     

‘Engines of Extravagance’: The privatised British railway rolling stock industry

The privatisation of Britain's railways involved not only the transfer to private ownership but also the break-up of a previously integrated industry. Under the government's plan the railway's passenger rolling stock was sold to three rolling stock companies (or ‘ROSCOs’).This paper focuses on the role of the ROSCOs in the rail industry and their financial performance, critically examining the available literature and in particular the use that has been made of Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to analyse the relations between ROSCOs and train operators, as well measuring their profitability from financial statements.The ROSCOs have been able to charge excessively high lease rentals to the train operating companies (TOCs). Analysis based on TCE which argues that ROSCOs have taken on serious risk to justify these returns (of default by a TOC, or of holding rolling stock surplus to requirements) has been misplaced, failing to see the dysfunctional nature of the market and the implicit government guarantee to maintain services.The paper finds that the ROSCOs need to be regulated and more transparent in their dealings with both train operators and the public.     

Do the prices of stock index futures in Asia overreact to U.S. market returns?

We extend the overreaction study to interaction of international markets and find that intraday price reversals exist in Asian index futures markets following extreme movement in U.S. market. Profitable opportunities exist after considering transaction cost. We show that the reversal cannot be explained by rational arguments such as risk, liquidity and bid-ask spread. We further observe that a magnitude effect exists. Overreaction is more prominent in the latter period than in the initial period. After calm-down periods, overreaction is greatly reduced. These observations support the explanation that the source of price reversals lies in behavioral biases.     

To switch or not to switch? The effect of audit firms’ economies of scale on audit firm switches after audit price deregulation in China

We exploit the unique setting of China’s 2014 audit price deregulation policy to examine whether audit firms use their economies of scale (EOS) to compete for clients. We find a significant increase in client firms switching from a non-EOS auditor to an EOS auditor after the audit price deregulation policy was implemented. The additional analyses show that EOS audit firms are more likely to offer audit fee discounts than non-EOS audit firms while retaining audit quality. We also find that the auditors’ EOS effect is more pronounced for highly homogeneous industries and firms paying high abnormal audit fees, firms in financial distress, and firms receiving less capital market attention than for less homogeneous industries and firms paying low abnormal audit fees, financially stable firms, and firms receiving more capital market attention. Finally, we find that the presence of state-owned enterprises and political connections both separately and jointly moderate the effect of audit firm–client realignments from a non-EOS auditor to an EOS auditor after the audit price deregulation. Overall, our study provides important insights for policymakers and regulators reviewing and developing new policies on audit services.     

Risk communication and social media during food safety crises: a study of stakeholders’ opinions in Ireland

Social media is a particular communication platform which has witnessed an exponential growth in use and influence in recent years, democratising the communication process, and offering risk communicators a way of putting into practice those principles which are advocated to be at the core of risk management and communication. However, little is known about stakeholders’ willingness to embrace this new form of communication in a food crisis. The current study presented an exploratory investigation of the opinions of Irish stakeholders on the position of risk communication in a crisis, with a particular focus on understanding what application social media may have. In-depth one-to-one interviews were carried out with key stakeholders holding frontline positions in managing and communicating about risk in the food sector in Ireland. The stakeholders identified risk communication as a central activity in a food safety crisis, driven by an obligation to protect both consumer health and the reputation of the Irish food sector. Stakeholders relied primarily on risk communication to disseminate information in a crisis so to educate and inform the public on a risk and to prevent confusion and alarmism; most did not explicitly value two-way risk communication in a crisis. The ability to effectively manage future crises may depend on stakeholders’ willingness to adapt to the changing communication landscape, namely – their willingness to adopt social media and use it effectively. The findings indicate that the stakeholders interviewed are appreciative of the need to engage with social media in times of a food safety crisis. However, most valued social media as a one-way channel to help spread a message and there was little reference to the interactive nature of this medium. Implications for integrating social media into crisis risk communication strategies are discussed.     

Erratum to: ‘Statistical estimate of the proportional hazard premium of loss’

The asymptotic variance of the risk premium estimator, proposed by Necir et al. (2007), is revised, by using the right asymptotic approximation of the uniform empirical quantile process.     

Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study investigates the impact of both social and news sentiments indices on the dynamic stock–bond correlation across wavelet-based...     

Does beta react to market conditions? Estimates of ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ betas using a nonlinear market model with an endogenous threshold parameter

The authors use a logistic smooth transition market (LSTM) model to investigate whether ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ market betas for Australian industry portfolios returns differ. The LSTM model allows the data to determine a threshold parameter that differentiates between ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ states, and it also allows for smooth transition between these two states. Their results indicate that ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ betas are significantly different for most industries, and that up-market risk is not always lower than down-market risk. LSTM models indicate that the transition between ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ states is abrupt, supporting a dual-beta market modelling framework.