China's Foreign Trade: A “New Normal”

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China's foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a “normal” foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.     

The “North-South” controversy and Britain's regional problems

The extent of regional economic disparities in Britain has recently become the focus of considerable controversy. Attempts have been made to portray the existing situation in terms of a “North-South divide” or as “two nations”. Opponents of this point of view have argued that no such stark division of the country exists, and that prosperous areas can be found in parts of the North just as depressed areas can be found in parts of the South.

This paper considers the pattern of regional disparities which now prevails in Britain. Section I is a detailed presentation of the existing situation. Section II considers the question of how sharp a division there now is between different parts of Britain, followed, in Section III, by a discussion of the process of change which has brought about the regional disparities which we now observe. Implications for government policy are then considered.     

“Post‐Truth,” “Alternative Facts” and “Fakenomics”

South African companies are accused of hoarding profits to accumulate large amounts of “idle” cash, as well as of being the perpetrators of massive illegal capital flight. This paper argues that much of the claimed corporate cash is either offshore or belongs to banks. It reminds that bank deposits increase when companies borrow, not when they retain profits. It shows, too, that measures of massive capital flight actually reflect data errors. Exaggerating, through faulty methodology the extent to which companies have cash or may be involved in illegal capital flight is unhelpful. It exacerbates already‐fraught government‐business relations, and complicates the search for solutions to South Africa's economic problems.     

The “teaching procession”? another look at teacher tenure, 1845–1925

Prior to the Great Depression the turnover rates of teachers, especially female and rural teachers, were very high. These high turnover rates have led historians to conclude that the average teacher was inexperienced and had little professional commitment. Here we examine direct evidence on teacher tenure. We find that the teacher the typical student was likely to encounter taught for more than five years in rural schools and practically a lifetime in the urban schools. Personal characteristics associated with stable job attachment in the modern era exerted a similar influence on the tenure of nineteenth-century teachers.     

新农村建设中的乡村治理模式研究

随着社会主义新农村建设的不断推进以及我国经济社会的逐渐转型,乡村治理模式发生了一定的变化.如何在变动的时代环境背景下构建一种适合中国国情的乡村治理模式,已成为解决中国乡村问题,特别是社会主义新农村建设发展中的乡村治理模式问题的关键所在.     

Does School Lunch Fill the “SNAP Gap” at the End of the Month?

This article investigates the relationship between the timing of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit payments and participation in school lunch and breakfast using the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey. An event study approach examines participation over the five‐day window before and after the SNAP payment. We find that school lunch participation decreases by 17–23 percentage points immediately after the SNAP payment among 11–18 year olds while breakfast drops by 19–36 percentage points. The decline begins the day prior to payment. We find no effects for 5–10 year olds. Models examining participation over the full SNAP month using individual fixed effects yield similar findings. Among teenagers, participation in school lunch and breakfast decline in the first two weeks of the SNAP month, increasing afterward. Non‐school meals show the opposite pattern. Overall, results indicate SNAP households rely more on school lunch and breakfast toward the end of the SNAP month.     

“Capture” of anti-poverty programs: An analysis of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Program in India

Using pooled household level data for the Indian states of Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh we find that the size of landholdings is a negative predictor of participation in the National Rural Employment Guarantee Program (NREGP). In state level analysis this pattern survives in Rajasthan but reverses in Andhra Pradesh where we notice a positive relationship. This paper examines whether this sign reversal in Andhra Pradesh is indicative of program capture in Andhra Pradesh and better targeting in Rajasthan. We compare land inequality, ratio of NREG and slack season agricultural wage rates, political interference, and geographical remoteness across the two states and conclude that program capture may be an issue in Andhra Pradesh, largely because of these reasons. We also find evidence of complementarity between NREGP and the Public Distribution System (PDS), implying that the real income transfer through food subsidy needs supplementation.     

”Uneven development“

John Allen and Doreen Massey (eds), 1988: The Economy in Question. London: Sage Publications, £8.95 paper.

Doreen Massey and John Allen (eds), 1988: Uneven Re-Development: Cities and Regions in Transition. A Reader. London: Hodder and Stoughton, £7.50 paper.

Kevin Morgan and Andrew Sayer, 1988: Microcircuits of Capital: “Sunrise” Industry and Uneven Development Oxford: Polity Press. £35.00 cloth.     

“Regional questions”

Publications Reviewed:

Royal Town Planning Institute, 1986: Strategic Planning for Regional Potential. A discussion document.

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, 1986: Regional Policy-A Fresh Approach.

Armstrong, H. and Taylor, J. 1987: Regional Policy: The Way Forward. The Employment Institute.

Northern Region Councils Association, 1986: The State of the Northern Region.

South East Economic Development Strategy (SEEDS), 1987: South-South Divide. An exposition of the SEEDS project.     

The meaning of “social safety nets”

In Southeast Asia, the issue of “social safety nets” (SSNs) has emerged more prominently since the financial crisis. Despite the increased interest in social safety nets, there is still considerable confusion among scholars and national and international organizations regarding the use and meaning of the term. This article considers the different definitions of the term—particularly as it was used during the Asian Financial Crisis—and to attempt to clarify its meaning and proper use.The safety net analogy is drawn from high-wire walkers who are protected by a safety net if they fall. The safety net prevents any walker who falls—unexpectedly or not—from hitting the floor and incurring catastrophic injuries. Following this line of reasoning, it is not surprising to learn that some organizations and scholars use the term SSN such that it encompasses private and public mechanisms that assist individuals in maintaining a minimum level of consumption.The term “social safety net” (SSN) began to be used by Bretton Woods’ institutions in connection with structural adjustment programs related to their lending programs. Developing countries introduced SSNs to mitigate the social impact of structural adjustment measures on specific low-income groups. They were initially formulated to serve three objectives: poverty alleviation, to make adjustment programs more politically acceptable, and institutional reform. During the Asian Financial Crisis, there was a great deal of confusion regarding the content and consequent identification of SSN programs.Public SSN programs can be classified into formal and informal safety nets. Formal and informal safety nets are, generally, distinguished by law enforcement: formal safety nets are those which legally guarantee individuals access to economic or social support whereas informal safety nets provide likelihood of support to individuals to assure them of attaining or remaining above the designated minimum standard of living but with no legal guarantee.Informal SSNs can be divided into private and public ones. Examples of private informal SSNs include transfers from family members, friends, neighbors and community members and institutions, including NGOs, while those of public informal SSNs refer to the support which individuals can hope for from the government, through programs which generate assets or employment, transfer income, or provide basic social services, as a means of helping affected individuals from falling below the designated minimum standard of living. The difference between formal and informal public SSNs is whether there exists a formal legal support of the assistance.The article has provided more discussion on the definitions of SSN used by the World Bank, ESCAP, ILO and TDRI.In conclusion, the authors note that the tremendous variation in the use of the term invites confusion and makes it virtually useless as a technical concept. The very nature of the metaphor invokes a vision of a large net that encompass a number of different types of programs. In many cases it is not even possible to list specific programs that are included, as the particular forms of these programs could, of course, vary with place, time and circumstances. Complicating things further, the term is sometimes used in a very narrow sense. Given the low probability that usage of the term will ever be standardized, economists and national/international organizations might be well served by avoiding the term completely and instead using its component parts.     

England's “Age of invention”: The acceleration of patents and patentable invention during the industrial revolution

Estimation of a varying parameter model reveals that the trend of patents issued in England accelerated markedly in 1757. Similar results are obtained when patents are weighted by the number of production processes in which the patented invention may be used. There is no evidence that the rules or regulations regarding patents changed around 1757, and investigation of the propensity to patent in individual industries, and of the industrial distribution of patents, does not reveal a systematic change in the propensity to patent. Therefore, an acceleration in patentable invention must have caused the acceleration in patenting. The increase of the growth rate of patenting preceded an increase of the growth rate of total factor productivity, suggesting a causal relationship. Additionally, the fluctuation of patents around trend is much smaller after 1757, which reflects a widely based increase in patentable invention. Finally, the 1762 to 1851 period was characterized by an increased growth rate of patents and invention per person; England had entered her “Age of Invention.”     

“Imaginary” or “Real” Moneys of Account in Medieval Europe? An Econometric Analysis of the Basle Pound, 1365–1429

During the Middle Ages, the medium of exchange function of money was separate from the unit of account function. This has given rise to the misconception that the medieval pound was an “abstract” or “imaginary” unit of account whose purchasing power was independent of that of gold and silver coins. The joint behavior of the pound price of gold, the pound price of silver, and the silver–gold ratio in Basle between 1365 and 1429 cannot be reconciled with the notion that nominal values were autonomous. Instead, the monetary system was based on a silver standard, supplemented by gold coins whose money of account values were determined by this silver standard.     

ANTHROPOMETRIC TRENDS IN SOUTHERN CHINA, 1830–1864

Anthropometric indicators can shed light on the ‘Great Divergence’ debate on the timing of the welfare development in China and Europe. We mobilise two new datasets of some 13,000 Southern Chinese contract migrants who were sent to Suriname and Indonesia, and thus supplement the limited existing evidence on early to mid‐nineteenth century China. The Southern Chinese were about as tall as Southern Europeans during the early and mid‐nineteenth century, but notably shorter than Northwestern Europeans. Height development was stagnant or slightly downward over the period studied, which fits into the pattern of real wage developments at that time.     

SARIT AND THAILAND'S “PRO-AMERICAN POLICY”

The idea of “pro-Americanism,” appearing at the same time as America's sense of world mission, is a phenomenon of the post World War II period, and for this reason has a very short history. The basic point is that “pro-Americanism”fluctuates according to American conditions, but fundamentally it is controlled by the internal conditions of the “pro-American”country. At the same time, as in most diplomatic relations, “pro-Americanism”is too a basically unstable condition and by trying to stabilize it and make it permanent, both American and the other countries undergo severe stresses. The “pro-American”relationship which ties the United States with numerous small countries in a chiefly bilateral relationship is certainly not immutable. How should the changes be measured and in what context should they be viewed? I shall take the case of Thailand, the most “pro-American”of the Southeast Asian countries. I shall be looking at political leadership as the basic key to the changes, and from this angle the main problem of this article is how to evaluate the part played by Sarit.     

“INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY” AND ECONOMIC INEQUALITY

At present, when more than half of the “Development Decade” has passed, the economic development of developing countries is far behind the targets set forth at the beginning of this decadc. The author analyses this problem, particularly from the viewpoint of capital movements, and comes to the conclusion that the existing system of capital movements to developing countries today must be re-examined; a new world loans or grants system should be established in combination with efforts in the direction of total disarmament.     

The “hidden” side of the “flying-geese” catch-up model: Japan’s dirigiste institutional setup and a deepening financial morass

Akamatsu’s original “flying geese” (FG) growth model is often used as a frame of reference for both further conceptual elaborations and empirical explorations. So far, only the positive results of FG development have been focused on and emphasized in connection with Asia’s phenomenal growth in the precrisis period. The Japanese economy, supposedly Asia’s lead goose, is in the eleventh consecutive year of stagnation. How has such a once successful lead goose come to be stricken by financial woes? This paper points out that Japan’s once miraculous FG growth was made possible because it established an effective dirigiste catch-up regime in the early postwar period but that Japan’s present financial predicament is paradoxically a path-dependent outcome of this FG strategy. The institutional, especially financial, dimension of FG strategy needs to be taken into account to explain why such a strategy once proved effective but later culminated in a deepening financial morass. The FG model should encompass not only the industrial dimension of catch-up but also its institutional, particularly financial, dimension.     

Discussion of “The Psychology of Billing”

Hansen, Jackson, Schaefer, and Stewart (2018) examine the effects of three contextual features on tax professionals’ billing decisions in a case involving issue‐specific tax research. In this discussion, we present a tax fee model. In contrast to determining a bill, our model views tax fees in a more comprehensive perspective. We subsequently use this model to discuss the design choices and limitations of their study and to provide suggestions for future research.     

“Enterprise boards and economic strategy”

Centre for Local Economic Strategies, undated: Enterprise Boards: their Contribution to Economic Development and Investment. Manchester: Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £2.50.

Cochrane, A. (editor), 1987: Developing Local Economic Strategies: Milton Keynes: Open University Press, no price stated.     

“Keep silent and make money”: Institutional patterns of earnings management in China

Assessing the overall quality of Chinese financial data is important to both academic researchers and regulators. Using data from the industrial census of China, we examine the institutional pattern of the manipulation of reported profit statistics by manufacturing firms. This manipulation of profits is called “earnings management.” We find that earnings management is more pervasive in China than in mature market economies such as the U.S., and that Chinese firms appear to follow a “keep silent, make money” strategy by managing their reported earnings to zero. Specifically, we find that increased earnings management is associated with state-owned firms, firms reporting to higher levels of government, and firms in more marketized regions.